Proof the housing market has peaked

[dnb24]

11 hours ago, spygirl said:

Yeah, its fucked up now.

Gone.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57914323

My local market was on its arse after Gidiots little btl con 15. Loads of morons rieh in for io btl, not reading the s24 change.

This time far more people have piled into a market that us going to be fucked by higher mortages, much higher unemployment, and the whole covid turmoil.

The only positive us that thus seems to be udiots cashing pensions and savings to buy houses.

Nu berry of mortgages have nit shifted so much. Csnt, mmr.

 

 

It’s interesting for sure, we’re in the market- and it was mental in midlands but recently a lot of viewings for properties but then nothing- eg a property that went sstc in March/April for 600k, fell through back on market 585 offers over, full day viewings (according to agent), now price dropped to 550k. A fair few have done that over the past 3 weeks. 

[spygirl]

8 minutes ago, dnb24 said:

It’s interesting for sure, we’re in the market- and it was mental in midlands but recently a lot of viewings for properties but then nothing- eg a property that went sstc in March/April for 600k, fell through back on market 585 offers over, full day viewings (according to agent), now price dropped to 550k. A fair few have done that over the past 3 weeks. 

The money poured in from ~last Summer to start of this year.

Now all the cash has gone. No sales. for ~2 years.

Classic robbing future sales to boost todays nubmers.

[HousePriceMania]

12 hours ago, spygirl said:

Yeah, its fucked up now.

Gone.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57914323

My local market was on its arse after Gidiots little btl con 15. Loads of morons rieh in for io btl, not reading the s24 change.

This time far more people have piled into a market that us going to be fucked by higher mortages, much higher unemployment, and the whole covid turmoil.

The only positive us that thus seems to be udiots cashing pensions and savings to buy houses.

Nu berry of mortgages have nit shifted so much. Csnt, mmr.

 

 

That graph is ludicrous.

There's nothing up for sale.

People must be buying any old crap at any old price.

 

13 minutes ago, spygirl said:

The money poured in from ~last Summer to start of this year.

Now all the cash has gone. No sales. for ~2 years.

Classic robbing future sales to boost todays nubmers.

Have you noticed the BBC stopped allowing comments on some of the housing articles.

[eek]

One for @spygirl

Zoomtown-on-Sea? The lure of a new life on the coast - BBC News

It takes a while to reveal but it does seem they've bought a milestone in Scarborough - not going to be good when his boss decides his face no longer fits. 

[spygirl]

11 minutes ago, eek said:

One for @spygirl

Zoomtown-on-Sea? The lure of a new life on the coast - BBC News

It takes a while to reveal but it does seem they've bought a milestone in Scarborough - not going to be good when his boss decides his face no longer fits. 

COmmente on another thread.

I reckon hes stuck in a tiny house with 2 growing kids.

Though fuck it.

V fone have offered remote working.

Theres fuckall staff to be had in that area.

Hes 51. If hes paid the house off, mortgage free, reckons hes got a 5-10 years left at vfone, then maybe go for local less well paid job.

Then its a risk Id take.

There isno future for him or his kids in around Newbury at the moment.

Or anyone under ~50. who works.

 

 

[Frank Hovis]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

COmmente on another thread.

I reckon hes stuck in a tiny house with 2 growing kids.

Though fuck it.

V fone have offered remote working.

Theres fuckall staff to be had in that area.

Hes 51. If hes paid the house off, mortgage free, reckons hes got a 5-10 years left at vfone, then maybe go for local less well paid job.

Then its a risk Id take.

There isno future for him or his kids in around Newbury at the moment.

Or anyone under ~50. who works.

 

 

These big Thames valley tech companies have a habit of binning while departments; I've known people who had the axe from Oracle and Vodafone.

I know that it's easier to work from home in IT but there is no guarantee that his next employer will be as happy with it and employers generally might start paying a lot less for home workers because they know how many people, like him, have out themselves in a position where they have little choice but to take lower wages.

If I was employing now it would probably be £60k to work in the office, £40k to work from home, and I know that I could fill it at £40k.

[spygirl]

25 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

These big Thames valley tech companies have a habit of binning while departments; I've known people who had the axe from Oracle and Vodafone.

I know that it's easier to work from home in IT but there is no guarantee that his next employer will be as happy with it and employers generally might start paying a lot less for home workers because they know how many people, like him, have out themselves in a position where they have little choice but to take lower wages.

If I was employing now it would probably be £60k to work in the office, £40k to work from home, and I know that I could fill it at £40k.

I think his options are -

Putting himself in huge debt for a bigger hosue.

Or cashing inand leaving.

If hes paid off the mortgage and go the Scabby palce for free then hes laighing.

40k in Scabby is worth about 200k in Newbury.

 

 

[Hancock]

On 22/07/2021 at 09:34, HousePriceMania said:

That graph is ludicrous.

There's nothing up for sale.

People must be buying any old crap at any old price.

 

Have you noticed the BBC stopped allowing comments on some of the housing articles.

Im wondering if Sunaks state backed mortgages are a major factor in this, as surely saving a few grand in SDLT cant be the reason for so many sales.

[Democorruptcy]

3 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Im wondering if Sunaks state backed mortgages are a major factor in this, as surely saving a few grand in SDLT cant be the reason for so many sales.

It's a lack of supply? The areas I look at, are all time high percentage that are SSTC. It needs the kite flyers to put some too far into orbit to slow it down. Then reductions start and supply increases.

[Hancock]

22 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

It's a lack of supply? The areas I look at, are all time high percentage that are SSTC. It needs the kite flyers to put some too far into orbit to slow it down. Then reductions start and supply increases.

Excess supply of easy money, but with that amount of houses sold it shows there is enough houses available.

At the start of lockdown i thought well at least we get our long awaited HPC, its surreal that we got HPI and an extra years worth of lockdown to what anyone could have initially imagined.

 

[spygirl]

I don't think it is loose money, at least not bank lending.

It's people spending covid grants and drawing down pension cash.

It's going to end badly.

[Hancock]

20 hours ago, spygirl said:

I don't think it is loose money, at least not bank lending.

It's people spending covid grants and drawing down pension cash.

It's going to end badly.

But thats been said for a long long time now, and it has ended badly for people who didnt take on the debt.

 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

But thats been said for a long long time now, and it has ended badly for people who didnt take on the debt.

 

With hindsight, my biggest financial regret.

[Green Devil]

On 24/07/2021 at 19:16, Hancock said:

Im wondering if Sunaks state backed mortgages are a major factor in this, as surely saving a few grand in SDLT cant be the reason for so many sales.

The increased sales are simply because everything has been locked down for 18months. Though i expect the end of sdlt holiday has made people keener than they already were. 

[goldbug9999]

On 24/07/2021 at 19:48, Hancock said:

Excess supply of easy money, but with that amount of houses sold it shows there is enough houses available.

Transaction volume reflects liquidity which is entirely separate from supply: demand ratio.

[spygirl]

5 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

Transaction volume reflects liquidity which is entirely separate from supply: demand ratio.

In terms of housing ,transaction reflect age group and access to mortgages - 80% of housing sales normally involves.

Im waiting for the update on this - 

https://www.fca.org.uk/data/product-sales-data/mortgage-product-sales-data-geographic-area

5m+ people living Yorkshire.

City	Population	Yorkshire Rank	UK Rank
Leeds, West Yorkshire	761,481	1	4
Sheffield, South Yorkshire	530,375	2	8
Bradford, West Yorkshire	526,369	3	9
Kingston-upon-Hull, East Yorkshire	385,786	4	14
Wakefield, West Yorkshire	329,708	5	15
York, North Yorkshire	200,018	6	37
Huddersfield, West Yorkshire	162,949	7	51
Rotherham, South Yorkshire	117,618	8	80
Doncaster, South Yorkshire	109,805	9	84
Barnsley, South Yorkshire	91,297	10	109

 

 

50k mortgages sold in 2019.

Majority of those would have been remortgages.

 

[goldbug9999]

2 hours ago, spygirl said:

In terms of housing ,transaction reflect age group and access to mortgages - 80% of housing sales normally involves.

Im waiting for the update on this - 

https://www.fca.org.uk/data/product-sales-data/mortgage-product-sales-data-geographic-area

5m+ people living Yorkshire.

City	Population	Yorkshire Rank	UK Rank
Leeds, West Yorkshire	761,481	1	4
Sheffield, South Yorkshire	530,375	2	8
Bradford, West Yorkshire	526,369	3	9
Kingston-upon-Hull, East Yorkshire	385,786	4	14
Wakefield, West Yorkshire	329,708	5	15
York, North Yorkshire	200,018	6	37
Huddersfield, West Yorkshire	162,949	7	51
Rotherham, South Yorkshire	117,618	8	80
Doncaster, South Yorkshire	109,805	9	84
Barnsley, South Yorkshire	91,297	10	109

 

 

50k mortgages sold in 2019.

Majority of those would have been remortgages.

 

My point was really that a high market liquidity is entirely consistent with a general shortage/scarcity of something (which is why gold and bitcoin have highly liquid markets) i.e. that a high tx volume is not a signal there is "enough" of something.

[Hancock]

10 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

My point was really that a high market liquidity is entirely consistent with a general shortage/scarcity of something (which is why gold and bitcoin have highly liquid markets) i.e. that a high tx volume is not a signal there is "enough" of something.

Im thinking you're just trying to be clever, for the sake of trying to be clever.

Agents selling more houses than in a long time, must surely tell you there isn't a scarcity. I've no doubt there is less property to go on the market as enough boomer landlords have removed houses that would be traded off the market.

But to be fair i couldn't about these shite HPC esq claims i've read for 15 years or more by people trying to be clever, as i'm out of here in 5 months.

For years BlandUnsight could knock out some fancy reason as to why prices were going to fall, and he was wrong, every time that jumped up arrogant wanker was wrong.

[Hancock]

On 25/07/2021 at 19:43, Green Devil said:

The increased sales are simply because everything has been locked down for 18months. Though i expect the end of sdlt holiday has made people keener than they already were. 

House prices have been booming for all but the first 3 months of lockdown, and even in those 3 months the houses i was watching on auctions were going for what i thought were very high prices relative to the market.

[goldbug9999]

54 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Agents selling more houses than in a long time, must surely tell you there isn't a scarcity.

No it doesnt because thats not the way markets work. 

[JoeDavola]

Another ramping article on the BBC - average house price now £230K uk-wide.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57976341

In NI anyway, part of the problem is lack of supply. The amount of houses on sale is something like 50% what it would have been a couple years back apparently.

And of those on sale, you have only a percentage of them that aren't falling to bits, and are actually suitable/desireable as family homes, and you have several people taking on as much debt as possible to secure the 'dream' of a 2.5 bed semi in Belfast.

[JoeDavola]

On 24/07/2021 at 20:08, spygirl said:

I don't think it is loose money, at least not bank lending.

It's people spending covid grants and drawing down pension cash.

It's going to end badly.

I hope for the sake of future generations prices do fall, but I don't think they will any more.

We're in total fucking clown world where a global pandemic that should have led to a massive recession has instead seen many people better off than ever, getting paid to sit at home, and led to the fastest house price growth since the last financial crash.

As far as I'm concerned any logic regarding housing is out the window.

[Hancock]

9 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

No it doesnt because thats not the way markets work. 

Sorry but you really are trying to make things sound more complicated than they are.

If there is a scarcity name me one area where there are no houses for sale.

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, JoeDavola said:

I hope for the sake of future generations prices do fall, but I don't think they will any more.

We're in total fucking clown world where a global pandemic that should have led to a massive recession has instead seen many people better off than ever, getting paid to sit at home, and led to the fastest house price growth since the last financial crash.

As far as I'm concerned any logic regarding housing is out the window.

They will, but as you say there is no logic and the time of a correction could be a decade away .... or whenever interest rates rise to a few percent..

 

[eek]

1 hour ago, JoeDavola said:

I hope for the sake of future generations prices do fall, but I don't think they will any more.

We're in total fucking clown world where a global pandemic that should have led to a massive recession has instead seen many people better off than ever, getting paid to sit at home, and led to the fastest house price growth since the last financial crash.

As far as I'm concerned any logic regarding housing is out the window.

House prices have been created by 2 different factors over the past 20 years.

The move from 3+1 income ratios to 4x joint income 

Low interest rates since 2008

The latter will be fixed at some point as interest rates rise, the former never will be now that cat has been released.