Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Democorruptcy]

12 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

As far as im aware, spread betting carries no tax liability with it as its considered gambling. 

 

The irony. 

That's what I thought. You said CGT would apply to options trading but if you don't exercise the option, buy shares then sell them at a profit, you haven't incurred a capital gain it's just gambling?

[Majorpain]

9 hours ago, Loki said:

Just posting a name I learned from here...I don't have a clue anymore, frankly.

 

 

He's got tunnel vision on his metrics, and is completely ignoring that if the governments shut down again, it doesn't matter how much liquidity is in the system they are going straight down to market hell.

[DurhamBorn]

16 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

He's got tunnel vision on his metrics, and is completely ignoring that if the governments shut down again, it doesn't matter how much liquidity is in the system they are going straight down to market hell.

Liquidity still matters though,it would just move.This time they have used direct fiscal injections to families,not banks.He is trying to work out the waves of liquidity and then how it flows through the economy,where etc.Most people in the market only see the bits a blind man can see.People often forget that David is mainly talking about US markets etc and the affect on them of a global bust.Tesla falling 80%+ is a given.Would BT? ,BAT?,how many woke actually own a BAT or a BP?

David is actually turning more short term trader though without realising it,likely due to age (the older you get you have shorter timescales) and the twitter lot dont really want to hear i think this will gain 2%pa above inflation over the cycle.

[Majorpain]

13 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Liquidity still matters though,it would just move.This time they have used direct fiscal injections to families,not banks.He is trying to work out the waves of liquidity and then how it flows through the economy,where etc.Most people in the market only see the bits a blind man can see.People often forget that David is mainly talking about US markets etc and the affect on them of a global bust.Tesla falling 80%+ is a given.Would BT? ,BAT?,how many woke actually own a BAT or a BP?

David is actually turning more short term trader though without realising it,likely due to age (the older you get you have shorter timescales) and the twitter lot dont really want to hear i think this will gain 2%pa above inflation over the cycle.

My comment was not clear and was directed solely at the airlines, it is "brave" to start predictions on something that could at the present time be back to minimal revenue with a single politicians phone call.

[Loki]

 After weeks of infighting between progressives and Democratic moderates, the House finally passed the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, after enough progressives broke ranks with their caucus to push it through

 

 

 

 

Brrrrrrrrr time?

[ThoughtCriminal]

Begging the Qataris to be our supplier of last resort for LNG. 

 

What a fucking shit show this country has become. 

[Errol]

[M S E Refugee]

 

[feed]

Napier financial repression doom.

Interesting point towards the end of his interview about the politicisation of debt/rates and potentially the ESG lot going after capital investment on the Gold miners, in a similar way as they've gone after the oils.  

 

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Majorpain said:

My comment was not clear and was directed solely at the airlines, it is "brave" to start predictions on something that could at the present time be back to minimal revenue with a single politicians phone call.

Yes its scattergun firing off sectors to the twitter mob,at Fidelity the equity team would decide if to add an airline or two to the portfolio.I think he is maybe picking off sectors he expects to run up ahead of a bust.I think Kaplan is far better at spotting the sectors getting close to a longer term turn rather than spikes.

Dave did work for the best team though and of course an amaing boss,Peter Lynch,the best contrarian value investor of all time for me.

[janch]

Are we missing a trick?  Since it's the 0.01% who benefit disproportionately from the money-printing to the plebs (deplorables) ie us, maybe we should try to get a few crumbs from their table by investing in the shares of the posh companies eg LVMH/Dior/Herpes etc. 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/luxury-stocks-rise-as-lvmh-results-signal-strong-demand-090520821.html

Thoughts?

[janch]

H e r m e s becomes Herpes somehow and can't be amended??

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Errol said:

Thats a great chart. My take is that the productivity growth being measured was of a different kind, where over time human skill and intelligence were kinda being removed from the workplace, and instead automation was taking its place. Therefore the economic productivity gain was returned to the investors of the capitol instead of going to higher wages... I think if there was a line on that chart for automation spend it would be very instructive.

[SpectrumFX]

1 hour ago, janch said:

H e r m e s becomes Herpes somehow and can't be amended??

I think that they lost one too many of Spunko's packages.

[jamtomorrow]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

Thats a great chart. My take is that the productivity growth being measured was of a different kind, where over time human skill and intelligence were kinda being removed from the workplace, and instead automation was taking its place. Therefore the economic productivity gain was returned to the investors of the capitol instead of going to higher wages... I think if there was a line on that chart for automation spend it would be very instructive.

Interesting idea. The start of the divergence certainly coincides with when robotics began to take hold in auto production.

Correlation is not causation of course, but that merely puts the automation hypothesis on an equal footing with the alternatives. And the simultaneous spike in labour costs due to wage inflation would certainly have tilted the incentives.

So maybe "perfect storm" for substitution of labour by capital?

[Errol]

The divergence also coincides with the closure of the gold window (i.e. the US default) and the beginning of the paper money experiment.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

7 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Begging the Qataris to be our supplier of last resort for LNG. 

 

What a fucking shit show this country has become. 

What on God's green earth have we promised them for that?

[Underwhelmed]

well they own swathes of London already including The Shard so maybe more as well as first dibs on mercenary UK army.

[Axeman123]

15 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

What on God's green earth have we promised them for that?

Another take: why are we so desperate for supply? 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10172613/Biden-sends-CIA-Director-Bill-Burns-Moscow-warn-Putin-building-troops-Ukraine-border.html

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10171983/Firework-displays-hit-winds-tonight-Met-Office-issues-weather-warning.html

Putin is building up troops on the Ukraine border, and apparently -6C (in parts) is coming to the UK next week! If Putin moves in and turns off the gas simultaneously, then offers to turn the gas back on with conditions...

[ThoughtCriminal]

54 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

What on God's green earth have we promised them for that?

Exactly. 

 

Prostituting ourselves once again. 

[ThoughtCriminal]

He's fucking daring me to short Tesla the twat 🧐

[Yadda yadda yadda]

33 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

He's fucking daring me to short Tesla the twat 🧐

He is asking mostly Tesla shareholders if he should sell shares and devalue their stock. Wonder what the result will be.

[Loki]

23 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

He is asking mostly Tesla shareholders if he should sell shares and devalue their stock. Wonder what the result will be.

I voted yes because why not, I want to BTFD

[ThoughtCriminal]

55 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

He is asking mostly Tesla shareholders if he should sell shares and devalue their stock. Wonder what the result will be.

This is the second time in a week he's floated the idea of selling a big wedge. 

 

He clearly wants to get it done without looking like the bad guy 

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

This is the second time in a week he's floated the idea of selling a big wedge. 

 

He clearly wants to get it done without looking like the bad guy 

Maybe he's been reading David's tweets and wants some plausible excuse to cash in now, by popular demand, no less.

Nothing these people do is ever an accident - I bet YES gets it.