Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Harley]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Dis-inflation loving under performing,inflation lovely out performing.YEN looks interesting though,or Jap stocks.

Jap stocks.  I had a good year.  A stock pickers market.  Ideally I would have gone long the picks and shorted the index.

[Harley]

7 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Last time I screened for Jap stocks was 18 months ago, and seemed like divi yield was very hard to come by.

Not been a problem this year for me.  I look for 3% grossed up by the WHT.

[Harley]

7 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Edit to add: I suppose Japan having a 10 year head-start on ZIRP

Some debt monsters but primarily applies to the government.  Many companies have tidied up their balance sheets since the madness of the last top.  I go for pure plays though and avoid the conglomerate types, especially companies with investments in golf courses!

[Harley]

18 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

the thread 'back on subject' as I was guilty of leading it off line :-)

I was looking for a funny spanking cartoon but even with a "strict" safe search setting.....!

3 hours ago, Starsend said:

A happy and prosperous new year to everyone!

I'm starting the New Year with a big old chunk of money to invest, most of it I want to get into high yielding stuff. Difficult time really as the risk of a crash seems high but then again, been hearing that for years and years and I'm investing for the long-term anyway.

I've been watching some interesting stuff recently, what did well in 70s - energy stocks and REITS did particularly well at outpacing inflation.

Already got a lot of dosh in energy but nothing in REITS and there's a lot to choose from.

One I'm very interested in is Omega Healthcare listed on the NYSE. Yields an EXTRA JUICY 9.7%. They own almost a thousand healthcare type properties. Can't see any particular problems with them. Anybody have any thoughts as to how these types of companies are likely to do going forward? I like that their properties are hospitals / care centres etc, seems safer than a residential REIT.

https://www.investing.com/equities/omega-healthcare

An interesting one for me to look at.  I too have been thinking REITs but the nuance this time round is in the right sectors rather than general.  So I looked at medical, data centres, supermarket landlords, etc.  Hopefully more niche stuff like that to replace LAND and the other one I've since sold out.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Starsend said:

My concern isn't so much that their sales will be hit; it's what could happen to London shareholders if things got heated between the West and Russia. Russian Government could just delist from London and tell us all to feck off. No idea how likely a scenario that is to be honest. 

I'm sitting on good gains (c.70%) and am looking to add more after the current (last time I looked) pull back.  I tend to go direct to the MOEX for such reasons.  But the UK TPTB were welcoming Russian money even when we were (are) fighting a type of "war".  They seem in bed with the Russians similar to the Chinese.  Just all part of the risks, like my Turkisk Lira holding (cash to deploy but market access was then closed!). 

[MrXxxx]

31 minutes ago, Harley said:

I was looking for a funny spanking cartoon but even with a "strict" safe search setting.....!

 

"Ohhh, donnnt be like that!" :-)))

[Starsend]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

I'm sitting on good gains (c.70%) and am looking to add more after the current (last time I looked) pull back.  I tend to go direct to the MOEX for such reasons.  But the UK TPTB were welcoming Russian money even when we were (are) fighting a type of "war".  They seem in bed with the Russians similar to the Chinese.  Just all part of the risks, like my Turkisk Lira holding (cash to deploy but market access was then closed!). 

I'm also up about 70% so be a good gain if I sold but would prefer to hold. Which broker do you use for the MOEX?

[ThoughtCriminal]

Tesla, most expensive clown stock in history.

 

That increase is half Toyota's entire market cap in a day.

[leonardratso]

hmm a bit like house prices eh.

[DurhamBorn]

Gas anyone.

[CannonFodder]

 

Amazing how risk of lights going out affect the politics. 

Green now includes good old dino gas it seems. Green somewhat flexible.

we should invest in bp gazprom and repsol to do Greta proud.

[macca]

On 02/01/2022 at 09:25, Calcutta said:

Getting past the 'evil Tories' thing and realising that the entire political game is rigged against you should be mandatory for accessing the thread. It should've been mandatory for accessing TOS in the first place. 

 

Sir Tony? 

I'm trying to figure out how Corbyn is anything like Bodger or any other Tory.. 

Tony blair, Sir Starma yes.. 

But when Corbyn was up for election he is absolutely nothing like a Tory..

Follow him on the social media.. look at his voting records. No 2nd jobs, no voting for wars, no voting for anything against the best interests of the people. 

I've never voted for anyone who has actually won because I always research my candidate.. The bent ones normally win. 

So really it's the electorate that's the problem.. if people took more interest and researched there candidates we might be in a better place.  

My argument is "they are all the same so don't vote" 

That's nonsense. 

[DurhamBorn]

Its just so easy everyone can do it.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/buy-to-let-properties-will-allow-retire-millionaire-2023/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

"When buying a property to let out, it has to be on an interest-only basis, it is absolutely essential. The real genius part of this model comes from inflation and compounding because the amount you owe the bank does not increase with inflation but the value of your property will increase with time.”

His first purchase, made jointly with his father on a three-bedroom house in Sheffield, was completed in December 2020 and his share is valued at £135,550. It generates an income of £150 a month for each of them, after paying the mortgage and towards a contingency fund. “It’s not a huge amount, but it’s a start,”

 

[Harley]

4 hours ago, Starsend said:

I'm also up about 70% so be a good gain if I sold but would prefer to hold. Which broker do you use for the MOEX?

Interactive Brokers.

[Hancock]

55 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its just so easy everyone can do it.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/buy-to-let-properties-will-allow-retire-millionaire-2023/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

"When buying a property to let out, it has to be on an interest-only basis, it is absolutely essential. The real genius part of this model comes from inflation and compounding because the amount you owe the bank does not increase with inflation but the value of your property will increase with time.”

His first purchase, made jointly with his father on a three-bedroom house in Sheffield, was completed in December 2020 and his share is valued at £135,550. It generates an income of £150 a month for each of them, after paying the mortgage and towards a contingency fund. “It’s not a huge amount, but it’s a start,”

 

Read that earlier, he's a dopey bearded cunt whose about to get ditched by his spick bird when she realises that he's not only very lazy, but he is also very broke. (no access to the 50k pension for 20 years)

Comments from the usual DT landlord brigade show the kind of self deranged parasitic cunt the boomer landlord class of England are. 

Got to love this comment by Mr Buytolet though  "This modern life of selling time for money does not work for me."

Since when did going to work for money become "modern life", and when did it suit most people ... and what will happen when his dirty renters decide they don't like that idea also.

He has a non job filling out mortgage applications and even that is too stressful for him, what a complete cunt.

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, macca said:

I'm trying to figure out how Corbyn is anything like Bodger or any other Tory.. 

Tony blair, Sir Starma yes.. 

But when Corbyn was up for election he is absolutely nothing like a Tory..

Follow him on the social media.. look at his voting records. No 2nd jobs, no voting for wars, no voting for anything against the best interests of the people. 

I've never voted for anyone who has actually won because I always research my candidate.. The bent ones normally win. 

So really it's the electorate that's the problem.. if people took more interest and researched there candidates we might be in a better place.  

My argument is "they are all the same so don't vote" 

That's nonsense. 

Get over yourself with Corbyn, he lost (twice), he's a crooked commie loser and Labour are traitorous cunts, but there are also plenty of topics about the 2nd coming that couldn't muster up any cum when he had to. 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

Read that earlier, he's a dopey bearded cunt whose about to get ditched by his spick bird when she realises that he's not only very lazy, but he is also very broke. (no access to the 50k pension for 20 years)

Comments from the usual DT landlord brigade show the kind of self deranged parasitic cunt the boomer landlord class of England are. 

Got to love this comment by Mr Buytolet though  "This modern life of selling time for money does not work for me."

Since when did going to work for money become "modern life", and when did it suit most people ... and what will happen when his dirty renters decide they don't like that idea also.

He has a non job filling out mortgage applications and even that is too stressful for him, what a complete cunt.

He actually says the real genius of the model is inflation because the amount you owe the bank doesnt increase, but the house price will.Moronic.No understanding that inflation pushes up rates for a cycle.It really is incredible.

[Joncrete Cungle]

2 hours ago, Hancock said:

Get over yourself with Corbyn, he lost (twice), he's a crooked commie loser and Labour are traitorous cunts, but there are also plenty of topics about the 2nd coming that couldn't muster up any cum when he had to. 

I don't understand the euphoria from some people that accompanied Corbyn becoming leader of the opposition. It's like they deliberately decided to forget he is a very different political beast to 95% of Labour politicians.

IF he had won most of the politicians in his own party wouldn't have voted in support of most of his policies. As to do so would invoke the ire of their globalist masters and threaten their cushty non exec directorships and other rewards for carrying out their real masters orders when they leave politics.

[Innkeeper]

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

He actually says the real genius of the model is inflation because the amount you owe the bank doesnt increase, but the house price will.Moronic.No understanding that inflation pushes up rates for a cycle.It really is incredible.

To be fair though, he’s only seen what a whole generation have over the past 15 years in that prices always go up and that interest rates are going to remain at next to nothing.  Enforced of course by a rabid MSM.  Housing therefore is a one way bet and only clever people like him can see how to make money without doing much.

The late 70s, early 90s and 2007 are airily dismissed if (anyone bothers to research them) with ‘that can’t happen now’.  The governments in the west have been pedalling the idea that they can control everything from climate to Covid to living standards.  It’s going to become very obvious over the next few years that they absolutely cannot. 

Until then the BTLers will continue to slap each other on the back and smirk at those non believers..

 

[Majorpain]

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its just so easy everyone can do it.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/buy-to-let-properties-will-allow-retire-millionaire-2023/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

"When buying a property to let out, it has to be on an interest-only basis, it is absolutely essential. The real genius part of this model comes from inflation and compounding because the amount you owe the bank does not increase with inflation but the value of your property will increase with time.”

His first purchase, made jointly with his father on a three-bedroom house in Sheffield, was completed in December 2020 and his share is valued at £135,550. It generates an income of £150 a month for each of them, after paying the mortgage and towards a contingency fund. “It’s not a huge amount, but it’s a start,”

 

It gets better, you can have a read of his blog (spoiler: he's a shit WICAO).

https://davidscothern.com/

Quote

Anyway, back to the week just gone.  It did not start well.  Our tenant moved out on December 18th.  I know people who live near to my BTL and they told me that the property had rubbish mounted outside and that the gardens looked in a terrible state.  I had arranged via email to meet the agent at 9am on the 20th to complete the final inspection.  I stated several times that the agent needed to have the keys with them because I suspected they would turn up without them.  I’ve had so many issues with this agent that nothing surprised me.  So, I made a point of emphasising this several times.  

I turned up at the property a little before 9am.  The front and back gardens were horrific.  Mattresses, cardboard boxes, bags of rubbish, pet carriers, children’s toys, and a pushbike were all just scattered across the garden.  It was almost heartbreaking because the previous owners had created a beautiful space in the decades they’d owned the property.  When the agent turned up, it quickly became apparent that they did not have the right keys.  I was not impressed.  

After giving the agents a verbal barrage, I left the issue with them to sort out.  To their credit, they arranged for a locksmith to change all the locks and provide us with a new set of keys.  A little later, we received the report regarding the internal condition of the property.  The phrase “shithole” springs to mind.  The tenant had wrecked the place.  Burns on the carpet, blinds broken, light fittings smashed, bare electrical wiring from where she had ripped out light switches and light fittings.  Paint and wallpaper scraped and ripped off.  The toilet seat had been broken off the toilet.  The brand new cooker we supplied looked like it had not been cleaned in a decade, despite having been used for just a year.  The kitchen was under a cm of water as the tenant had disconnected a washing machine and not turned the water off.  This is just the tip of the iceberg.  It is going to cost thousands to put right, so we’ve decided to go the whole way and do a complete refurb, more or less.

 

 

[Harley]

16 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

"Ohhh, donnnt be like that!" :-)))

I quoted the wrong post and can't delete them on my phone (only on my desktop) so had to use it! 

Anyone know how to delete mis-quotes?  I can only get rid of a misquote on my phone if I exit before saving the post and clear the editor when creating a new post but not if I've saved the post.

PS:  Maybe an opportunity to cut down on my finance posts (massive crowd applause) by only posting from my desktop!

[MrXxxx]

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its just so easy everyone can do it.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/buy-to-let-properties-will-allow-retire-millionaire-2023/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

"When buying a property to let out, it has to be on an interest-only basis, it is absolutely essential. The real genius part of this model comes from inflation and compounding because the amount you owe the bank does not increase with inflation but the value of your property will increase with time.”

His first purchase, made jointly with his father on a three-bedroom house in Sheffield, was completed in December 2020 and his share is valued at £135,550. It generates an income of £150 a month for each of them, after paying the mortgage and towards a contingency fund. “It’s not a huge amount, but it’s a start,”

 

Makes me wonder why everyone doesn't just give up work/a 'normal' job, and instead of becoming a "Nation of shopkeepers" we become a nation of BTL entrepreneurs?!

[MrXxxx]

17 minutes ago, Harley said:

I quoted the wrong post and can't delete them on my phone (only on my desktop) so had to use it! 

Anyone know how to delete mis-quotes?  I can only get rid of a misquote on my phone if I exit before saving the post and clear the editor when creating a new post but not if I've saved the post.

PS:  Maybe an opportunity to cut down on my finance posts (massive crowd applause) by only posting from my desktop!

Seemed to be in context to me....made me laugh anyway...love a 'bit of banter' :-)

[spygirl]

Economist are shit article - 

Political uncertainty and Brexit will slow UK recovery in 2022, economists predict

Annual FT survey shows living standards will fall as inflation outpaces wages in year ahead

https://www.ft.com/content/e8f45dc9-c93b-4c8c-b5d2-48ebb623a5a6

 

 

 

 

Id suggest that, with price and tax rises and demand for workers, whilst ~30% of the working pop sit on their arses , that UK wages are going to go up a lot more. And inflation with it.

With those inflation and growth figures, UK bas rates should be 5% min.

 

 

 

[planit]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

He actually says the real genius of the model is inflation because the amount you owe the bank doesnt increase, but the house price will.Moronic.No understanding that inflation pushes up rates for a cycle.It really is incredible.

He has more 'faith' in the MPC/government than you, he 'knows' that they just buy their own debt to keep rates permanently low - leading to IO mortgages never going over 3%

 

Sorry you are wrong on this one, I am siding with the BTL genius.