Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Harley]

13 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

I really don't see things ending well for Boris the power mad cuntstruck eco nutter.

IMO he's just acting as a front man.  Personalising things is a trap if you really want to get under the covers of what's going on.  Boris will be gone at some point (early next year?) and the show will go on with another twist and front guy to keep us distracted.

[MrXxxx]

12 hours ago, Froggy2000 said:

I was thinking about this.  If banks are incentivised to lend on new builds instead of older properties (as they are already via HTB), would that make older properties cheaper?  There would be less credit chasing them which seems to be the biggest driver of prices in most of the country.  It would then be a case of does the higher interest rate offset the lower purchase price.  I ask because I much prefer older properties!

I initially thought this too @Froggy2000 but then realized that as part of the announcement the mortgage rule was only applicable to new builds [if i recall correctly]. As a result, older properties are likely to maintain their value or garner a premium as they will be easier to get a mortgage on; the majority of people won't consider the energy costs of poorer insulation in the older properties when buying, only once they have bought.

[Harley]

13 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I'm not sure if he is attempting to destroy the conservative party or if he has his sights on democracy itself.

Never get high on your own supply. Or in this case never believe your own propaganda.

He's probably focussed on himself, like most of them.  He'll likely be well gone before anything kicks off or gets watered down but will have the requisite cv for his next chapter.

[MrXxxx]

12 hours ago, Loki said:

They will be happy to lend to make them green. Their only product is debt.

I was hoping the decade of infrastructure would be exciting but it's just going to be 10 years of lies about viruses and co2.

..and token gestures/promises.

[Harley]

12 hours ago, Hancock said:

Its also absolute bollocks, just look at the housing stock in Britain, half of it is close to 100 years or more and falling apart, yet Bojo's coming up with a cunning plan to stop lending to it.

And a large chunk of the other half was built so shabbily it won't last 100 years!  Passivhauses these are not!

[Harley]

12 hours ago, Loki said:

They will be happy to lend to make them green. Their only product is debt.

I was hoping the decade of infrastructure would be exciting but it's just going to be 10 years of lies about viruses and co2.

They do it every few decades.  The intellectuals with their bright ideas get involved in real things in the real world, to our cost. The last was the age of modernist concrete back in the 1960's.

[Harley]

5 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Next comes pensions, remove the £40k tax relief down to minimum, reduce maximum lifetime limit, remove the tax free lump sum on access, and raise taxes on drawdowns or some kind of means tested method.

Just before each recent Budget I applied to take the 25% out of my SIPP, cancelling it later (you even seem to have a cooling down period), just in case!

[MrXxxx]

14 minutes ago, Harley said:

IMO he's just acting as a front man.  Personalising things is a trap if you really want to get under the covers of what's going on.  Boris will be gone at some point (early next year?) and the show will go on with another twist and front guy to keep us distracted.

I think this has always been the case in politics, well in my lifetime...the PM is simply the 'stool pigeon' for those behind 'pulling the levers/pushing the agenda.

[Harley]

5 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Now all this won’t be vote winning stuff, but they’re past the point of caring about such triviality like that. Dictatorial government powers are now in vogue, they can do whatever the fuck they like.

Alternatively they just can go full on fast forward into crashing the economy through the floor, to get it all out of the way. We can then all look forward to our dystopian 1984 UBI utopia.

IMO, this is the plan!  Coming to your portfolio shortly.

[HousePriceMania]

Someone will be really disappointed on November 4th.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, SpectrumFX said:

Anybody going green?

I think the logic must be that if you live in crushing poverty in your old age then you'll use less energy or something.

Fucking hell.

 

 

We need a 'Feck Off" rep (to the content, not poster)!  No, not one of these crypto oddities, a proper between the eyes "Feck Off" one!

[HousePriceMania]

2 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Someone will be really disappointed on November 4th.

For comparison, 2 days ago.

 

The spivery of London being what it is, a bunch of cheating crooks, someone clearly knows something.

[Harley]

20 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

I think this has always been the case in politics, well in my lifetime...the PM is simply the 'stool pigeon' for those behind 'pulling the levers/pushing the agenda.

Yes but it's got worse, driven by the growing plurality, both numbers and power, behind it to which we are excluded (don't rank, marginalised).  

[Harley]

7 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

The spivery of London being what it is, a bunch of cheating crooks, someone clearly knows something.

Tt;du.  "Too Thick; Didn't Understand"!

[Harley]

Got my backup electricity supply installed and commissioned.  Interestingly, apparently new regs will require spike arrestors in consumer units.  OK, for lightening strikes but also an admission of a more unstable grid given what's planned?  That said, I'd be more worried about brown outs, indeed may have already lost some sensitive kit to them.

[HousePriceMania]

16 minutes ago, Harley said:

Tt;du.  "Too Thick; Didn't Understand"!

The city of london, it's a corrupt cess pit.  Looks to me like someone's been given the nod that IRs will definitely be rising in Nov, up a whopping 0.15%, with a 0.5% to follow.

 

The insane central bankers could have pulled a rabbit out the hat, again, but we'll see in 2 weeks.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

You get one of these and stick it somewhere, they are quite big in comparison.

I've been over all this a million times in the last ten years to see if it'll work 'cause it sounds great.  I've seen how the market started on hype ("sure it'll work in a stone cottage, just increase the rads a bit"), pulled back when faced with angry and litigious customers ("I'm cold and spending a fortune on expensive rate electricity"), to the current BAU "get HMG to push it".  That price excludes the install, thermal store, etc.  Last time I looked it was the same price as an oil install and boy does that oil produce the btus, still at a cheaper rate than the electric (but not mains gas).  That said, I may dabble in a small ancillary air to air unit.

PS:  Anyways, some cautiously installed insulation first and foremost is the way to go.  Not that I'd feck over my fellow citizen to make the point.

[M S E Refugee]

3 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

The city of london, it's a corrupt cess pit.  Looks to me like someone's been given the nod that IRs will definitely be rising in Nov, up a whopping 0.15%, with a 0.5% to follow.

 

The insane central bankers could have pulled a rabbit out the hat, again, but we'll see in 2 weeks.

I'm thinking of buying some Sovereigns I suppose I better wait until they put the interest rates up.

[Noallegiance]

42 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Someone will be really disappointed on November 4th.

Ignore Harley beat me to it

[HousePriceMania]

7 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Ignore Harley beat me to it

[HousePriceMania]

17 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I'm thinking of buying some Sovereigns I suppose I better wait until they put the interest rates up.

Funny you should say that, I just had that exact same thought after reading this...

 

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/bundesbank-president-weidmann-quits-citing-personal-reasons-2021-10-20/

 

FRANKFURT, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, a relentless critic of the European Central Bank's ultra-easy monetary policy, will step down from his post on Dec. 31, more than five years before his term was due to end, the German central bank said on Wednesday.

 

Now, why do you suppose that might be ?

 

I was very much of the opinion that the Germans would force the ECB to act responsibly.  Clearly not. I expect he will be replaced by someone Rishi Sunak knows.

 

[Harley]

33 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

a whopping 0.15%

Feck me, run for the hills!

34 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

with a 0.5% to follow.

Feck me, keep running!

Tarts!

[HousePriceMania]

7 minutes ago, Harley said:

Feck me, run for the hills!

Feck me, keep running!

Tarts!

If that puts people over the edge then there is something really wrong...but we know that already

[HousePriceMania]

I have a question for everyone.

How do they see the next 6 months playing out ?

I'm now thinking it is:

Rate rise nov ( or dec ) in the UK, US tapering starts

Inflation keeps going up, mainly due to supply chains.

Dec: Stock market takes a bit of a hit

Jan/Feb, another UK rate rise, US talking about rate rise

March stock market keeps heading down, economy in the UK starts to fall apart ( i.e. house prices are falling ) 

April, UK sets rates to 0 starts QE3, or is it QE4, the US ends tapering and continues the insanity.

 

This should be the queue to get rid of any FIAT money you have before anyone realises what's happened.

 

 

 

[Loki]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

They do it every few decades.  The intellectuals with their bright ideas get involved in real things in the real world, to our cost. The last was the age of modernist concrete back in the 1960's.

Oh don't, i looked at a few old aerial photos and OS maps of where i live, nowhere special like, and loads of old what would have been country houses got pulled down then, replaced with council blocks and housing estates. Wouldn't happen how.