Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Ma2 said:

So with 2. for instance we have seen somewhere with an annexe that could be rented for holidays....

Or in my case for elderly relatives to live, enabling a mutli-generational household as discussed here.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

I only have one problem with GG. It literally is only one. 99% of the rest of him is outstanding.

He's made his fortune via property flipping and being a leveraged LL. So he sits there slamming the Fed, low rates and high borrowing but his bread has been copiously buttered by it.

He seems oblivious to it.

TBF, he mentioned it in a recent podcast.  Said something like he did well out of the nonsense.  I'm not an apologist but, as I suggested on the mortgages thread, maybe sometimes you have to go with the flow and not fight it.

[jamtomorrow]

8 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Hydrogen fuel cells make a lot more sense for Britain than fully electric cars.  There is not the space/infrastructure/housing to accomodate those cars.  Unless of course they plan for the poor not to have cars.

The turn from disinflation to reflation will do that anyway. We've become so accustomed to the fruits of lean manufacturing and JIT supply chains, we think we're entitled to a car each.

[Ma2]

10 minutes ago, Harley said:

Or in my case for elderly relatives to live, enabling a mutli-generational household as discussed here.

Yep same possibility for us if required, but would be moving to be closer to the olds in any case with that one.

So I think, when looking at houses, we can be thinking about how it could add value beyond simply a dwelling.

[Harley]

I've had me call up papers!

Come on folk, time to do ya bit ('cause they'll make you later anyway?)!

[Ma2]

4 minutes ago, Harley said:

Come on folk, time to do ya bit ('cause they'll make you later anyway?)!

ha ha yeah - All money is 100% safe, backed by the HM Treasury. Wonder what you'll be able to buy with your money in 3 years time

[DoINeedOne]

13 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

Another anecdote

Farmer friend went to sell some cows today. Price is down about 10-20%, especially young ones that other farmers would normally buy to fatten up (~2 years). Reason is price of feed is up so the cost of rearing them is seen as too risky. Fertiliser is also up at least 50%

Forgot to post this the other day I saved it from a guy I follow on Twitter who has a farm in the UK

 

 

Also this guy I like 

 

[CVG]

43 minutes ago, Harley said:

I've had me call up papers!

Come on folk, time to do ya bit ('cause they'll make you later anyway?)!

I think that this bit is a lie and so I've reported to ASA.

"A £1,000 deposit would be worth £1,019.62 at the end of the 3-year term."

https://www.nsandi.com/files/asset/pdf/green-savings-bonds-summary.pdf

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

 maybe sometimes you have to go with the flow and not fight it.

Until we end up like this?

[Majorpain]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think to be fair they are adding huge capacity everywhere funded from cashflow so likely they will increase free cash in the medium term.However they have a massive cost base,and every part of it facing headlong into inflation.

 

On the flip side they also have full visibility of those pressures because they are integrated, so may be able to manage them better than traditional retail selling to each other at each stage of the chain.  They can also access a ridiculous amount of printed money through the US financial system, so again may fair relatively well if the Fed can continue to print.

Of course, if they cant print and Amazon is forced into the markets then lending 10% to 10 smaller companies is less risky than lending 100% to one big one.  There would obviously need to be a switch to "return of" rather than "return on" capital for that to occur however.

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

I've had me call up papers!

Come on folk, time to do ya bit ('cause they'll make you later anyway?)!

Or you can buy HM Treasury backed property, with returns of circa 50-100% per annum, of the initial sum you put down as a deposit.

[Wheeler]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

I've had me call up papers!

Come on folk, time to do ya bit ('cause they'll make you later anyway?)!

I might be interested at RPI + 0.65%, tax free!

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Harley said:

They never said.  Just that it did not comply.  No warnings, nothing.  Just took it down.  I'm sure it'll still be down if he did not have the support. 

PS:  I've watched George for a while now.  He really has grown into quite a talent from a zero start.  One of life's doers.  Shows what can be done with some application.

Yes. I bet there are still some easily found old videos on YouTube of George Gammon when he was 'only a humble' property (BTL?) Investor. I remember seeing one of them many years ago shot from his home in South America where I think he has most of his property portfolio... I was really surprised years later, after he begun to be mentioned on here, to see him in his new role as financial pundit!!

[Harley]

24 minutes ago, Wheeler said:

I might be interested at RPI + 0.65%, tax free!

They pulled those years ago! 

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, CVG said:

I think that this bit is a lie and so I've reported to ASA.

"A £1,000 deposit would be worth £1,019.62 £325.00 at the end of the 3-year term."

https://www.nsandi.com/files/asset/pdf/green-savings-bonds-summary.pdf

FTFY

4 minutes ago, Harley said:

They pulled those years ago! 

Tories issued one, maybe 2.  They were from the labour era more. Then establishment realised they could just QE up the cash and no one would hang them.

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Harley said:

Yep  I wonder about property too, although I have not rebought as overpriced atm.  I agree about considering bond proxies rather than just bonds.  Have to get back to the fundamentals of the approach to work that out.  After much dilly dallying I'm putting my indexed linked NS&I in there.  I appreciate the loss of normal bonds but that's partly portfolio insurance for me, although I'll hold less than 25% total.  The portfolio is after all about long term preservation first and foremost.

Hard assets is a key area for me and like all the four asset classes, I'm sub-dividing it into areas beyond the suggested make up.  So more than gold in PMs - crypto, other PMs, commodities, etc.

They way I approach all this stuff (Browne portfolio, DCF, etc) is to use it all as a sound starting point and then cautiously move where I think I need to.  At least I better know where I'm starting.  The biggest moment in my investing life was getting grounded - having a playbook from which to play rather than being blown around by single events, media, emotion, available time, commentators, etc.  

I am also always on the lookout for hard-asset 'alternatives', bond 'alternative', etc.... I've mentioned these guys before: Horizon Kinetics money managers are an old fashioned (imho, and not said as criticism) type outfit, but do have interesting ideas on finding hard assets for the next cycle. Their Q3 update is here...                                            https://horizonkinetics.com/whats-new/#3rd-quarter-2021-commentary

[HousePriceMania]

[HousePriceMania]

 

[Axeman123]

2 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Everyone can see what is looming, but it could still take another 3 months. These are trying times.

[HousePriceMania]

Just now, Axeman123 said:

Everyone can see what is looming, but it could still take another 3 months. These are trying times.

 

It doesn't matter when you sell, but sell you should.

Though, I have been buying oil/gas and miners since July as a hedge against collapse of the £ further down the line.

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Harley said:

Is AWS essentially a data centre?  I have a watchlist of data centre stocks, but not them.  Quite hard to invest there atm as several are private, small, not just data centres, or get taken over.

On the subject of watchlists, thanks to @sancho panza for posting his now and then.  They offer a good headstart and/or cross check of my own.

AWS offers a complete cloud service, so DC's, pay as you go server platforms, etc. Interestingly it is the most profitable part of the Amazon empire (which itself begun as as a mere bookseller!.. quiet a transformation)

[Hancock]

12 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Everyone can see what is looming, but it could still take another 3 months. These are trying times.

It could take another 3 years for the BK people are waiting for, or maybe it doesnt happen at all.

[Axeman123]

9 minutes ago, Hancock said:

It could take another 3 years for the BK people are waiting for, or maybe it doesnt happen at all.

I will respectfully disagree. Everything seems to be in flux at the moment, and a lot of things taken for granted are suddenly uncertain. I really feel that we are in a situation like an approaching tsunami, where the tide has unexpectedly gone WAY out in a matter of minutes. We have gone to a rooftop bar at the hotel, and are watching idiots merrily wandering out to collect seashells. Now the doubts set in, are we missing out? Is this time really different?

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Ma2 said:

Mainstream now...

Forget fine art: investors urged to put their money into rewilding

A startup is planning to acquire land to rewild, restore biodiversity, store carbon – and make a healthy return

Forget gold, vintage wines and fine art: investors and landowners are being urged to put their money into Tamworth pigs, Dalmatian pelicans and ponds dug by beavers.

The Real Wild Estates Company says it has tens of millions of pounds already pledged to acquire land to rewild, restore biodiversity, store carbon – and make a healthy return for investors.

The “natural capital” startup, which was launched at the rewilded Somerset farm belonging to the environmentalist and fund manager Ben Goldsmith, aims to create more than 100,000 acres of wild land across Britain by 2030

 

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/oct/29/forget-fine-art-investors-urged-to-put-their-money-into-rewilding

I'm tempted, rewilding has been mentioned by @DurhamBorn before. Is this 'investment product' a good way to invest or are there better alternatives? I wonder, are others more knowledgable about this space able to comment please?        

[Axeman123]

Just now, JMD said:

I'm tempted, rewilding has been mentioned by @DurhamBorn before. Is this 'investment product' a good way to invest or are there better alternatives? I wonder, are others more knowledgable about this space able to comment please?        

I am not knowledgable about the space, but I am cynical. My take is while there may be good opportunities in rewilding, it is also the kind of buzzword investment that attracts scam-marketing. People have lost fortunes over the years on investment products pushing hogsheads of single malt, gemstones, off-plan ski apartments, trading carbon-credits, portfolios of appreciating classic cars or fine wines etc. Every investment is the same product: a huge front loaded loss on purchase through commisions and fees of an asset which never matches the forecast performance.