Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[HousePriceMania]

9 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Couldn't this just be standard waffle around one of these events that mysteriously is forgotten once the moment has passed? Start a committee to evaluate a possible scheme etc, a year later they come back and say it is too difficult.

Im looking at all this green/net zero/save the planet/etc etc etc stuff and wondering just how this is helping the banksters and ass-holes like Bliar who are pushing it.

As ever with bankers, it'll mean more debt.

[Presuming Ed]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Some of the Brasil stocks are getting into nice areas to open positions for anyone who wants exposure and who can live with the volatile nature.Not for widows etc etc DYOR.

AGRO,CIG,VIV,TIMB iv been adding to or set more ladders at 4% drops.

Iv sold out of Alcoa Corp pretty much 4x on that,though didnt buy a vey big holding, and iv moved 1/2 into TEF Germany this morning and im going to get a few Verizon later.

 

Do you know what the approximate yield is on VIV? Everywhere I look seems to state something different. Hargreaves Lansdown has it at 8.2% but other places have it as low as 2.8%. 

[DurhamBorn]

22 minutes ago, Presuming Ed said:

Do you know what the approximate yield is on VIV? Everywhere I look seems to state something different. Hargreaves Lansdown has it at 8.2% but other places have it as low as 2.8%. 

Its roughly 6% net i think.

[Bricormortis]

4 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

I.m guessing thats what they thought in Venesuala, the more the currency went down, the more the stock value in Bolivars rose....until...........The most nuts stock market chart I have ever seen

[Bricormortis]

Environment secretary says " them heat pumps is a reet bag o' shite "    Well OK not his actual words but he feels heat pump technology has not evolved yet.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Im looking at all this green/net zero/save the planet/etc etc etc stuff and wondering just how this is helping the banksters and ass-holes like Bliar who are pushing it.

As ever with bankers, it'll mean more debt.

Its the excuse to divert capital from consumption to investment.Inflation / distribution cycles always need an enemy to declare war on as the excuse to inflate to rescue bankrupt governments.Now they cant do that due to mutual assured destruction they need a global enemy.

They have a massive problem with people with brains becoming rentiers and removing themselves from work.They need to reverse that.Its why they will keep rates way below inflation.They will also find ways to kill BTL.Tax,regs etc as well.

In simple terms they want to divert ordinary peoples savings to the green agenda.They want saved accumulated labour to be used to "save" the planet so the rich can enjoy it.They would turn earth into an exclusive holiday venue if they could and stick all us underground in cities on Mars .

In simple terms they want to remove the ability of ordinary people to be able to make an income from capital.

They will of course force up the prices of everything they hate.BP will be supplying 20% of India's gas mid cycle.

Sunaks nut job idea means Tesco has to comply,Aldi and Morrisons dont.

Very very sinister.

 

 

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Very very sinister.

Makes me very, very angry. The rich can invest in what they want but the workers cannot. Evil bastards want stringing up. Arrogant, entitled fuckers are the true enemy of the people.

[Loki]

No one took me seriously when I called them carbon commies

Communism just means a topdown state controlled economy, not necessarily gulags and breadlines (Although I won't be surprised) 

[Presuming Ed]

39 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its roughly 6% net i think.

Cheers. I know that dour Bruce Stout holds it in his Murray International investment trust. I like his portfolio a lot - basically a global value income trust with a fair amount of this thread's usual suspects in fags, telcos, oilies, potash etc. Yields about 5% at the moment. Capital performance has been fairly lacklustre as value's obviously been deeply out of favour in recent years but could have its moment in the sun in any reflation/rotation. ( I have a fair wodge in it as keen to de-risk ahead of early  retirement and moving away from individual companies going tits/cancelling divis etc). 

[DurhamBorn]

2 minutes ago, Presuming Ed said:

Cheers. I know that dour Bruce Stout holds it in his Murray International investment trust. I like his portfolio a lot - basically a global value income trust with a fair amount of this thread's usual suspects in fags, telcos, oilies, potash etc. Yields about 5% at the moment. Capital performance has been fairly lacklustre as value's obviously been deeply out of favour in recent years but could have its moment in the sun in any reflation/rotation. ( I have a fair wodge in it as keen to de-risk ahead of early  retirement and moving away from individual companies going tits/cancelling divis etc). 

Il have a look at that,i like investment trusts.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

12 minutes ago, Loki said:

No one took me seriously when I called them carbon commies

Communism just means a topdown state controlled economy, not necessarily gulags and breadlines (Although I won't be surprised) 

This is really something for off topic but it isn't long and I won't spam anything else on here today.

 

[Harley]

4 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

DB the trouble is, it's got so extreme, bubbles everywhere, CBs unable or unwilling to act, that when something does finally pop, it's going to be very very bad for people.

 

"Bonsoir et good evening sir, would you like it one at a time or all at once?.......Ah, an excellent choice sir, the 'Catastrophe Special'......Un moment svp"!

[HousePriceMania]

34 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Very very sinister.

 

Bliar and Carney are involved.  That seals it for me.

 

[HousePriceMania]

19 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

This is really something for off topic but it isn't long and I won't spam anything else on here today.

 

That is seriously brilliant.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

what the fuck is this shit

Britain’s biggest firms will be forced to set out their green transition plans under an initiative to be outlined at the COP26 summit today by Chancellor Rishi Sunak.

The government wants to redirect investment away from carbon-intensive sectors such as coal and oil towards green initiatives, including electric car batteries and hydrogen fuel.

Companies on the stock market will have to set out their goals and will be assessed annually against their published plans.

Those who fail to make enough progress, or whose plans are deemed too weak, could face sanctions including fines or even removal from the stock exchange.

The Treasury said the plan would make the City “the world’s first net zero-aligned financial centre”.

However, Mr Sunak’s plans have already stirred some resistance from those who feel firms could still find ways to sidestep their obligations, such as moving their head offices overseas or leaving the stock exchange. 

If the plans are too draconian there are fears they could harm the City of London’s standing as an investment capital.

BP, Shell and mining giants Rio Tinto and Glencore are among those listed in London.

 

The CBI cautiously welcomed the plan, saying that business was already ‘upping its game’. But the employers’ group warned it was vital ministers work with colleagues abroad to produce ‘globally consistent’ rules to prevent British-based firms being penalised.

Mr Sunak will unveil his plans today at the Cop26 climate summit in Glasgow. A deal with 450 of the world’s biggest banks, pension funds and insurance firms will see almost £100 billion worth of assets begin to ‘transition’ to lower carbon sectors.

At present, firms are under no obligation to go green. A recent assessment found that barely half of all companies on the FTSE 100 have so far made any commitment to move to net zero.

More pernicious subjective regulation to be overseen by some technocratic cabal of the good, great and vested to slay yet another "monster".  So the plague now spreads into the world of corporate finance.  And on to private finances in due course?  If only some people had been muttering about all this earlier?! 

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Couldn't this just be standard waffle around one of these events that mysteriously is forgotten once the moment has passed? Start a committee to evaluate a possible scheme etc, a year later they come back and say it is too difficult.

IMO no, not this time.

[Barnsey]

Neil Hutson has released his latest interactive map on UK House prices to earnings ratios

https://builtplace.com/housing-market-maps/

Was definitely a great help for me when choosing where to buy earlier this year (moved from renting in SW London where prices 16x earnings, to buying in West Midlands where prices just 6x).

[Harley]

3 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Anyone else's oil shares being hammered this week ?

Not mine.  Hammered for me is 30%+ in one day!  It's all tail end of the curve atm with these guys so I'm just waiting to add one way or the other, IMO probably on some eventual weakness so a few more % off please.

[kibuc]

Interesting news from Poland.

They've already had a rates increase in Oct from 0.1% to 0.5%, and today there was another one, this time all the way to 1.25%.

October inflation was measured at 6.8% yoy.

[Barnsey]

2 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Interesting news from Poland.

They've already had a rates increase in Oct from 0.1% to 0.5%, and today there was another one, this time all the way to 1.25%.

October inflation was measured at 6.8% yoy.

Witnessed it first hand couple weeks back, booming.

[HousePriceMania]

41 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Interesting news from Poland.

They've already had a rates increase in Oct from 0.1% to 0.5%, and today there was another one, this time all the way to 1.25%.

October inflation was measured at 6.8% yoy.

How are Polish house prices ?

[janch]

22 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

Anyone know why the price of Coal has collapsed?

I'm nursing a decent loss on Thungela at the moment.

Just catching up with the thread...........I think the drop in price may be due to specific problems for Thungela.  Apparently they have probs getting the coal transported because the railway is duff.  One of the difficulties for us investing in developing nations perhaps:

https://www.moneyweb.co.za/moneyweb-radio/safm-market-update/thungela-cuts-production-guidance-due-to-rail-problems/

[janch]

23 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

 

 

[kibuc]

3 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

How are Polish house prices ?

Bonkers, but it was like that in the pre-covid era already, largely fuelled by 1+ million Ukrainians moving there.

[Loki]

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2021/november/remarks-by-andrew-bailey-cop-26.pdf?la=en&hash=BF303EC79E3A5D5C1E5E89F5FF4D64241D478414

We're fucked.

Quote

It is a great pleasure to be at COP.

What struck me was the range of the agenda over the COP fortnight and how diverse this essential agenda now is – from finance to gender and innovation to youth empowerment.

 

This is of course not surprising, as we know that climate change is an issue that will touch each and every one of us, the way that societies operate and the way that we live our lives, particularly as we emerge from COVID.

And a microcosm of this can be seen in central banks. When we started talking about climate at the Bank of England in 2015, our work was wholly focussed on the risks to the banks and insurers that we regulate. Six years later, the agenda has touched all areas of our organisation – from the way we heat our buildings, to the way that we manage our holdings of corporate bonds for monetary policy purposes. It is included in all of our remits and embedded in all of our decision-making processes.

The Bank’s staff are actively involved as part of their day job or in the contribution they make to the way of life at the Bank, next week is our internal ‘green week’. This is a mark of progress. The more we consider climate across our BAU activities and take informed actions on the back of those considerations – the better equipped we will be to facilitate a smooth transition. That said, I have no doubt that this ever accelerating agenda can be hard to follow. So, today, let me try and piece together the different threads of the Bank’s work, drawing out some key areas where I believe we have reached a series of pivot points as to the scale of our ambitions in the future. And let me then set out where I think the next frontier of work will be and where we will usefully invest our efforts over the coming period.

 

The first pivot point is microprudential. Since we started our work on climate in 2015, we and the financial sector have come a long way. In particular, since the PRA set its climate-related supervisory expectations1 in 2019, we have seen a step change among senior executives and boards at firms. Some firms are exhibiting genuine ambition in how they embed climate-related financial risks, demonstrating what can be achieved and highlighting where other firms could, and should, do more. And we have been enabling firms on their journey, through the Climate Financial Risk Forum, a group of industry representatives chaired jointly by us and the FCA which has just published its second set of practical guides,2 and with a particular emphasis on aiding smaller firms which may not have easy access to the expertise needed for this new agenda. And of course we have shared all our learnings with international colleagues, whether on disclosure in the G7 or on supervisory expectations in the Basel Committee (BCBS) and the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS).3 But there is much further to go.....

Sorry the copy paste mangled formatting. Full PDf at link.