Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[DoINeedOne]

44 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I was in superdrug at the weekend buying cough medicine for a neighbour. Poor thing was a bit ill. On arrival there was a member of staff stood at the door. I thought it could be some mask nonsense. No, she was telling everyone that it was cash only due to a technical problem.

Cash works*.

*Hyperinflation notwithstanding.

Was in Tesco's few days ago staff were going mad telling all the counters that contactless and Apple pay is not working and customers need to insert the cards and enter pins

[Noallegiance]

 

[Majorpain]

Quote

Tesla shares are down about 5% in pre-market trading after Elon Musk Tweeted late Monday night that the company's deal with Hertz - widely seen as the catalyst (other than call options) for moving the stock higher over the last week - still hadn't been formalized in a contract.

Releasing shareholder affecting info from the CEO's twitter account is the very least of Felon's criminality.  It is going to catch up with him eventually....

[HousePriceMania]

15 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

 

"Sayonara Mother Fuckers" 

[Axeman123]

7 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Releasing shareholder affecting info from the CEO's twitter account is the very least of Felon's criminality.  It is going to catch up with him eventually....

I can't imagine anyone in power is under any illusions about how the Tesla story ends, I just assume they don't want to be the prick to his bubble. I read on twitter yesterday that the bid/ask spread on it works out to several billion dollars in market cap! It will surely be epic when it pops. (f)Elon seems to think he is invincible, I think the truth is closer to dead man walking!

13 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

 

If I had significant crypto assets right now I would either be selling in ladders, or resigned to waiting another four years. This has to be nearing a very imminent top.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

When it moved previously from TOS I found it through a search for "durhamborn".

My partner, having read 50 Shades, says we need a "safe word" to search.  "Durhamborn"?

PS:  But pinkie promise, only for this, to save his blushes!

[HousePriceMania]

2 minutes ago, Harley said:

My partner, having read 50 Shades, says we need a "safe word" to search.  "Durhamborn"?

PS:  But pinkie promise, only for this, to save his blushes!

Are we sure DB isnt the man behind SquidCoin ? 

[Talking Monkey]

2 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

When it moved previously from TOS I found it through a search for "durhamborn".

that's how I found it too when it moved 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

2 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Here is the graph:

Looks like the same set up as in the squid game coin videos above. When does this go to zero?

[Axeman123]

20 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I suspect that this is what PMs have been waiting for (as well as this weeks meetings).

I bloody hope so! This morning is pretty disheartening for GDXJ holders, down nearly 2% when gold is barely down 0.2%.

[kibuc]

7 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

This morning is pretty disheartening for GDXJ holders, down nearly 2% when gold is barely down 0.2%.

In this sector we call it a rally.

[DurhamBorn]

23 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Check out this comment from a former Fed trader, replying to a chart posted by Lyn Alden further up thread. The pennies in my head are dropping faster now, this is a great explanation of how QE was different this time.

Here is the graph:

I pulled it up myself to check the time series - it's accurate to Q2 2021. My mind is a bit blown, my comments:

- QE is different this time, as @DurhamBorn and some of you other smarter people have been telling us, because the Treasury decided to direct the money to households.

- The spike is because this money is an addition to the system, not just moving money around

- The level hasn't dropped yet, though other graphs show that the stimmy money has been spent. Is that because it's just gone into someone elses account?

- It's almost a 3x increase since pre covid

- Janet Yellen is currently in charge of the Treasury, and the Democrats have 3 and a bit more years in term. They are not going to stop handing out money, as long as they can get the Fed to print it.

- This explains to me the clearout of the hawkish Fed members. Powell's term expires in February, and Biden is expected to announce his nominees in the next few weeks.

- I suspect that this is what PMs have been waiting for (as well as this weeks meetings). Gold front ran inflation pretty accurately last year.

Exactly,and the macro was clear before all this started that the QE needed to be fiscal and directed through governments.The financial crisis QE re-financed the  banks,nothing more,they re-financed money lost to debt default from dis-inflation.

This time they needed to lift everything around 30% so that they could reach a point where tax increases faster than spending.To do that it had to go direct into the economy.They printed direct government fiscal spending.

They had no choice and were right to do so.If they hadnt the economy would of collapsed,and i mean systemic,not rough recession.

Key take now is to understand this is a fully blown distribution cycle and all that entails.The things that were valued least will be valued most.To sustain the same standard of living will mean spending more savings,or being paid more for your labour.

 

[Hardhat]

Dave Hunter called that oil top well... although a couple on here think it's just a pull back and I would tend to agree. 

[HousePriceMania]

WTF !!!

Up 

(1,282.78%)year to date

 

LON: 0HK4

[sancho panza]

On 29/10/2021 at 10:47, Noallegiance said:

I only have one problem with GG. It literally is only one. 99% of the rest of him is outstanding.

He's made his fortune via property flipping and being a leveraged LL. So he sits there slamming the Fed, low rates and high borrowing but his bread has been copiously buttered by it.

He seems oblivious to it.

I take your point NA but it's a bit like criticizing Raoul Pal for having a successful spell at Goldmans or reflecting that Lyn alden works for GG on his website.

Key thing is that GG did well and swam with the tide from 2000 on.We did and we didn't and are the poorer for it.I used to allow my emotional reaction to monetray policy and to colour how we invested.That was a mistake Geroge didn't make.Fair play to him.

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

This should probably be on the Covid threads, but I guess it's a follow up to my comment a few weeks ago on Whitty/Valance, that if they were any good, the private sector would have poached them long ago, and that scientists in government jobs are mediocre at best. This video has been doing the rounds for a while, but it's still very compelling. It's by Kary Mullis, who invented the PCR test and won a Nobel Prize for it. He was a real scientist, i.e. a practitioner. He lays into Fauci, which is very enjoyable. If only he had lived longer to add to these videos.

Remember this when you see any 'expert' being wheeled out by the government and/or media. What have they actually done or achieved in their field? Same goes for economics, so many wasters spouting crap, just look at the above post on how inflation was such a surprise. Personally, I wouldn't feel qualified to be talking about oil and gas supply issues if I wasn't a practitioner, and out there looking for the stuff. All the people who missed what has happened are spreadsheet jockeys, academics and unqualified talking heads.

I'll add a great article which I was very surprised and please to see published in Newsweek, by two of the GBD authors.

https://www.newsweek.com/how-fauci-fooled-america-opinion-1643839

Share widely, people need to know who is dictating their lives to them, and making them poorer.

I think it's entirely relevant.This thread nurtures a healthy scepticism of govt experts and their data,and is the better for it.My particualr bete noire is the poverty of the inflation datas we're fed but I welcome any education on covid especailly given teh scale of the damage the lockdown has done.

[HousePriceMania]

[HousePriceMania]

16 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

Dave Hunter called that oil top well... although a couple on here think it's just a pull back and I would tend to agree. 

https://www.ft.com/content/30b37130-28c6-42ac-8120-4c2213d7e751

 

BP boosts buybacks as oil and gas prices create ‘cash machine’

Energy major enjoys sharp rise in quarterly profit as global rebound pushes up commodities

[sancho panza]

13 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

Dave Hunter called that oil top well... although a couple on here think it's just a pull back and I would tend to agree. 

@Cattle Prod How do you square this

with this

 

WTI/Brent spread tight as ducks bottom at 40 fathoms.

Does it have any meaning?

 

In other news,this sort of set up keeps me long.

 

 

[Craig]

2 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

 

The entire market cap of crypto (inc. BTC, ETH et al.) is only just over £2trn. Still a funny story, and representative of where we are right now.

[sancho panza]

Worth listening to this Luke Groemn Macrovoices pod cast For two reasons

1) Luke Gromen gives an excellent analysis of the Treasury market,inflation,particualrly pointing out at

16 minutes-US net interest expense on govt debt is 111% of US tax receipts

30 minutes-abscence of foreign buyers means fed unable to step away from Treasury market,

33 minutes-when twin deficit nations like the US lose their cheap financing then you need to get your Argentina playbook out.

38 minutes-junk bond are running on negative real yields which makes no sense,Gromen says stay out of shorting them until IR's rise better to buy gold+bitcoin

 

2) At 1 minute Erik Townsend explains why the marekt will keep heading higher until it stops but that he doesn't see it stopping soon.

https://macrovoices.podbean.com/e/macrovoices-294-luke-gromen-the-us-government-cannot-afford-secular-inflation/

 

[sancho panza]

This isn't in the MMT playbook.Wrong sort of inflation perhaps?

[HousePriceMania]

I'd be surprised if we dont see a stock market collapse before the end of the year.

It's mental out there

[Axeman123]

44 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

US net interest expense on govt debt is 111% of US tax receipts

That is crazy!

[HousePriceMania]

1 minute ago, Axeman123 said:

That is crazy!

Unless you are profitting from it, then it makes perfect sense.

[JMD]

Ok maybe the link below is only a minor financial podcast, but I like to imagine that this is how Grant Williams and Luke Gromen talk between themselves when they are off camera!!                                                                                                 The interesting/scary(?) thing is that these podcast guys are currently very much part of the financial establishment, partners/directors at two different finance outfits (price-value asset managers/think trading.com). Here they interview an ex Best-Invest VC guy who's 'gone sole trader' and now just invests his own money, so real skin the game... walking his own talk so to speak. Please ignore the pod-cast crypto title, it was only a small part of the content. For me it was fascinating to hear the frustrations/fears/predictions of these people, who as i say are all currently operating at relatively senior levels within our ossified financial system. It's a long podcast, but I think very refreshing to hear from people within the industry, who's thinking chimes with this thread.                                                                                                                 https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EVKW-M4HKHk