Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[M S E Refugee]

 

[feed]

Napier financial repression doom.

Interesting point towards the end of his interview about the politicisation of debt/rates and potentially the ESG lot going after capital investment on the Gold miners, in a similar way as they've gone after the oils.  

 

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Majorpain said:

My comment was not clear and was directed solely at the airlines, it is "brave" to start predictions on something that could at the present time be back to minimal revenue with a single politicians phone call.

Yes its scattergun firing off sectors to the twitter mob,at Fidelity the equity team would decide if to add an airline or two to the portfolio.I think he is maybe picking off sectors he expects to run up ahead of a bust.I think Kaplan is far better at spotting the sectors getting close to a longer term turn rather than spikes.

Dave did work for the best team though and of course an amaing boss,Peter Lynch,the best contrarian value investor of all time for me.

[janch]

Are we missing a trick?  Since it's the 0.01% who benefit disproportionately from the money-printing to the plebs (deplorables) ie us, maybe we should try to get a few crumbs from their table by investing in the shares of the posh companies eg LVMH/Dior/Herpes etc. 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/luxury-stocks-rise-as-lvmh-results-signal-strong-demand-090520821.html

Thoughts?

[janch]

H e r m e s becomes Herpes somehow and can't be amended??

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Errol said:

Thats a great chart. My take is that the productivity growth being measured was of a different kind, where over time human skill and intelligence were kinda being removed from the workplace, and instead automation was taking its place. Therefore the economic productivity gain was returned to the investors of the capitol instead of going to higher wages... I think if there was a line on that chart for automation spend it would be very instructive.

[SpectrumFX]

1 hour ago, janch said:

H e r m e s becomes Herpes somehow and can't be amended??

I think that they lost one too many of Spunko's packages.

[jamtomorrow]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

Thats a great chart. My take is that the productivity growth being measured was of a different kind, where over time human skill and intelligence were kinda being removed from the workplace, and instead automation was taking its place. Therefore the economic productivity gain was returned to the investors of the capitol instead of going to higher wages... I think if there was a line on that chart for automation spend it would be very instructive.

Interesting idea. The start of the divergence certainly coincides with when robotics began to take hold in auto production.

Correlation is not causation of course, but that merely puts the automation hypothesis on an equal footing with the alternatives. And the simultaneous spike in labour costs due to wage inflation would certainly have tilted the incentives.

So maybe "perfect storm" for substitution of labour by capital?

[Errol]

The divergence also coincides with the closure of the gold window (i.e. the US default) and the beginning of the paper money experiment.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

7 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Begging the Qataris to be our supplier of last resort for LNG. 

 

What a fucking shit show this country has become. 

What on God's green earth have we promised them for that?

[Underwhelmed]

well they own swathes of London already including The Shard so maybe more as well as first dibs on mercenary UK army.

[Axeman123]

15 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

What on God's green earth have we promised them for that?

Another take: why are we so desperate for supply? 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10172613/Biden-sends-CIA-Director-Bill-Burns-Moscow-warn-Putin-building-troops-Ukraine-border.html

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10171983/Firework-displays-hit-winds-tonight-Met-Office-issues-weather-warning.html

Putin is building up troops on the Ukraine border, and apparently -6C (in parts) is coming to the UK next week! If Putin moves in and turns off the gas simultaneously, then offers to turn the gas back on with conditions...

[ThoughtCriminal]

54 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

What on God's green earth have we promised them for that?

Exactly. 

 

Prostituting ourselves once again. 

[ThoughtCriminal]

He's fucking daring me to short Tesla the twat 🧐

[Yadda yadda yadda]

33 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

He's fucking daring me to short Tesla the twat 🧐

He is asking mostly Tesla shareholders if he should sell shares and devalue their stock. Wonder what the result will be.

[Loki]

23 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

He is asking mostly Tesla shareholders if he should sell shares and devalue their stock. Wonder what the result will be.

I voted yes because why not, I want to BTFD

[ThoughtCriminal]

55 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

He is asking mostly Tesla shareholders if he should sell shares and devalue their stock. Wonder what the result will be.

This is the second time in a week he's floated the idea of selling a big wedge. 

 

He clearly wants to get it done without looking like the bad guy 

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

This is the second time in a week he's floated the idea of selling a big wedge. 

 

He clearly wants to get it done without looking like the bad guy 

Maybe he's been reading David's tweets and wants some plausible excuse to cash in now, by popular demand, no less.

Nothing these people do is ever an accident - I bet YES gets it.

[JMD]

5 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Interesting idea. The start of the divergence certainly coincides with when robotics began to take hold in auto production.

Correlation is not causation of course, but that merely puts the automation hypothesis on an equal footing with the alternatives. And the simultaneous spike in labour costs due to wage inflation would certainly have tilted the incentives.

So maybe "perfect storm" for substitution of labour by capital?

Yes, I think the labour/capitol substitution should have been a wake up call for reform. Though perhaps in fairness perhaps reforms did happen under the guise of rampant financialisation and private enterprise reforms. However where was the monitoring happening in order to measure success or failure? - But my real criticism lies with the economists who imho appeared to willfully continue to forlornly seek out productivity (and inflation!) In the wrong places.. I think our economists and those climate scientists have a lot in common?!

[DurhamBorn]

You dont need productivity growth to get richer ,you just need to owe less debt on assets you use like a house.What government means when they say we need productivity growth is that they want the workers to fund the none workers,the state and the banks more,not themselves.

My productivity is now 100% used against the government.I fix families houses so they dont need to pay,i look after grandkids,i look after everyones portfolios to keep tax down etc etc.

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

You dont need productivity growth to get richer ,you just need to owe less debt on assets you use like a house.What government means when they say we need productivity growth is that they want the workers to fund the none workers,the state and the banks more,not themselves.

My productivity is now 100% used against the government.I fix families houses so they dont need to pay,i look after grandkids,i look after everyones portfolios to keep tax down etc etc.

Remember you saying something about govt regulating BTL to bring it down to a more normal level.

Anyway below is a picture of a smug, condescending jumped up parasitic wanker.

[Hancock]

3 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

This is the second time in a week he's floated the idea of selling a big wedge. 

 

He clearly wants to get it done without looking like the bad guy 

He knows if he sells 10%, he then has the cash to buy back the entire company for himself when its share price crashes.

If i was him, id be looking to flog 10% of what he owns, and doing some good in America with it, like building homes for his workers etc...

[wherebee]

11 hours ago, janch said:

H e r m e s becomes Herpes somehow and can't be amended??

 

11 hours ago, janch said:

Are we missing a trick?  Since it's the 0.01% who benefit disproportionately from the money-printing to the plebs (deplorables) ie us, maybe we should try to get a few crumbs from their table by investing in the shares of the posh companies eg LVMH/Dior/Herpes etc. 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/luxury-stocks-rise-as-lvmh-results-signal-strong-demand-090520821.html

Thoughts?

those brand companies do not make their big prfits off the 1%.  They make them from millions of middle class wannabees and chinese projectors buying overpriced shit en masse.

I suspect that market is dead, if the globalists get what they want.

[spygirl]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

You dont need productivity growth to get richer ,you just need to owe less debt on assets you use like a house.What government means when they say we need productivity growth is that they want the workers to fund the none workers,the state and the banks more,not themselves.

My productivity is now 100% used against the government.I fix families houses so they dont need to pay,i look after grandkids,i look after everyones portfolios to keep tax down etc etc.

You could also try getting the dossers off benefits too.

 

[spygirl]

10 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

This is the second time in a week he's floated the idea of selling a big wedge. 

 

He clearly wants to get it done without looking like the bad guy 

Not really.

The US Dems have acquired a large vocal minitority who thing the solution to everything is more tax on rich people.

And taxes on Jeff and Elons un realised capital gains.