Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Other way round, the big US Banks own the fed, so that should not be a surprise!  Was the same in UK until Attlee nationalised BOE.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_of_England_Act_1946

Bit of rock and hard place really, small hike for fig leaf inflation and stock market goes pop, stay put and bonds blow up or lower and kneecap dollar (and everything blows up?)!

Point taken MP but either way they're in it together,each owing the other the keys to their continued existence.

There's potnetial for a small hike as you say but I'd be surprised at them making a substantial move given their histroy of timidity in the face of a squealing 1%.The big issue for is the other CB's hiking.Even if the Fed does a fig leaf,the rest are going higher,especially in per centage terms.For me,I'd feel more content moving to cash/shorting if we've had a sustained period of dollar weakness and the last trend on the monhtlies was up not down.

Key thing is that whatever they do,it likely won't change what's coming.

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Was out in Durham today for a meal with the other half and called in Spoons for two refillable coffees,£1.98 for two .It was really busy at 5pm,coffees,meals,older,lots of younger,,some having a few pints.Pint of carlsberg £2.49,bottle of wine in an ice bucket £6.99.Lots of youngsters having a gin etc.Fantastic business and provides a fantastic service for people.

The thing with the Spoons is that they msut be hammering the old pub co.s that lived off the fat of the land for years.The opposition haven't helped themselves and have made it easy for Tim Martin.

This is from teh Wiki entry for EI group(old Enterprise Inns)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ei_Group

'the committee found that pubco tenants are initially attracted to run pubs by low entry costs, but soon find that making a decent living is very difficult. Tenants' leases oblige them to buy alcoholic drinks from nominated suppliers at up to twice the open-market price.'

 

 

Round here it's Everards and I msut say,given the quality and value of ye olde spoons,it's hard for me to go anywhere else.Local Everards to me charges nearly £5 a pint ffs.I remember when I was younger,the pubs in Leicester were rammed,loads of good food pubs but now I can think of very few making a living.Loads getting boarded up.

In a way though,it's not a bad thing as it stops people getting shafted by the pub co.s

 

[JREWING]

Live by the sword die by it. All oil and tobacco sold now; sorry DB, but BP at ~398p and BATS over 3100p I ducked out. Gone in balls deep in miner's. Gold and Silver I feel is going on a tear. If it play's out I get my house half price, either here or Oz. If it don't I've still got my health and a boat load of knowledge. More than most at nearly 55. 

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, AWW said:

The whole edifice is a shitshow and I'd love to get stuck in and start changing a small part of it, but not for 25 to 40 grand a year and the ever-present risk of losing my job for misgendering someone.

I think half of this is true [the salary], but the other half is 'Tabloid hearsay', granted it may occasionally happen but on the whole is not really reflective of the truth. As for the financial cost, what price happiness and fulfilment in your job?...a job lacking in these only means that you spend the extra money trying to find it elsewhere i.e consumerism, and/or ackowledgement from your peers, who may be on a similar 'journey' themselves.

[AWW]

26 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

As for the financial cost, what price happiness and fulfilment in your job?

There's no decision to make; it's simply not doable.  The starting salary represents £1700 a month take-home. That wouldn't even cover our rent + bills, nevermind food. At the top end, if you stay in the classroom rather than going for promotion to a management role, teachers take home £2.5k a month.  That would cover rent, bills, food and clothes.  No holiday, not even camping in the UK.  No car.  Happiness and fulfilment in work has to play second fiddle to providing for your family.

[wherebee]

15 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Did my UK tax return. Total tax paid for the year: £0.

*I live abroad, but still feels good to not give those twats running the U.K. any of my money

I don't bother doing one any more.  Interest on my nationwide bank account is about 12p.

[wherebee]

3 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Thanks, will save me watching it, my hearts not what it used to be

you been jabbed then?

[planit]

11 hours ago, sancho panza said:

On the matter of resignations,the revolving door is seeing more people exit the Ambulance service this month.Vaxxed leaving due to stress,hatred of nights and unvaxxed leaving for those two reasons plus getting out ahead of the hangmans chop.

Never seen sentiment so negtive and that's in a sector that likes a moan(much like the military).Currently,the cracks are being covered,by replacing 6/10 year experienced staff with trainees fresh from the basic training,but we're starting to push on a string.From what I'm hearing from coppers I meet on shift,there are huge retention issues in places like Birmingham as well.It's not just us.

The bulk of the people defying the vaxx mandate that I know are all 5+ year expereinced but given the youth of the mabulance service ,it's about 10% of the workforce and some are succumbing to the fact that they have bills to pay.

Some leaving the sector all together,others looking for an easier time elsewhere doing days.

If Bj's wish was to break the NHS,then I think the Big Pharma overlords will be pretty happy.

 

I believe the vax mandate will be discarded nearer the time, there is just not the evidence that justifies it any more and Covid is over. 

There is no reason to make war with so many good people and the services are stretched as it is. It would be a huge political own goal to go through with it.

I feel for your situation and I hope it all turns out to be ok.

 

I haven't posted much,there is just so much on this thread to keep up with.

 

ps There is so much negative sentiment around at the moment that I don't see how the market can crash from this sentiment. DH meltup still on I feel.

PM miners seem to have disconnected from the gold price and are cheap, FRES will probably fall further today after an update which doesn't look good due to production delays.

[Chewing Grass]

The Bank sent me a lovely letter telling me that my Mortgage repayment was going up by £1.81p, debt has still never been so cheap.

Unfortunately, eventually it is all consuming whether you indulge in it or not, inflation is just one of its tentacles.

[Majorpain]

8 hours ago, JREWING said:

Live by the sword die by it. All oil and tobacco sold now; sorry DB, but BP at ~398p and BATS over 3100p I ducked out. Gone in balls deep in miner's. Gold and Silver I feel is going on a tear. If it play's out I get my house half price, either here or Oz. If it don't I've still got my health and a boat load of knowledge. More than most at nearly 55. 

You might have got lucky on the timing, Comex is starting to crumble and I've heard plausible rumour's that the best and easiest way to get Bank of America out of their $800bn silver short borrowed off JPM is simply to pull the plug on the Comex.  

The problem is that if whatever is being cooked up with Russia/Ukraine doesn't kill off the current financial system, Gold/silver trading at their fair market price, that accurately reflects past/current/future money printing (with zero short selling/high freq manipulation) will.  Its very much be careful what you wish for IMO, albeit potentially very lucrative!

A world where banks cannot magic up money out of thin air would be a very different one.

[Lightscribe]

9 hours ago, JREWING said:

Live by the sword die by it. All oil and tobacco sold now; sorry DB, but BP at ~398p and BATS over 3100p I ducked out. Gone in balls deep in miner's. Gold and Silver I feel is going on a tear. If it play's out I get my house half price, either here or Oz. If it don't I've still got my health and a boat load of knowledge. More than most at nearly 55. 

Hey stop copying me!  
 

Agreed, it’s a high risk approach at the moment as I’m essentially relying on the BK.

For me with my ISA it was an all or nothing approach and I’m going with my gut. I always said the BK would by by the end of last year, and this seems like the groundwork a few weeks later.

Being 40, I may never get my work pension (state age linked), so my focus is navigating the here and now. If it doesn’t work out so be it.

It’s for my daughters sake really. The world she inherits is inevitably going to be even more fucked up than this one.  This year maybe a once in a lifetime situation to cover enough assets for me so that she’ll be able to navigate whatever the system throws her way.

 

[MrXxxx]

7 hours ago, AWW said:

There's no decision to make; it's simply not doable.  The starting salary represents £1700 a month take-home. That wouldn't even cover our rent + bills, nevermind food. At the top end, if you stay in the classroom rather than going for promotion to a management role, teachers take home £2.5k a month.  That would cover rent, bills, food and clothes.  No holiday, not even camping in the UK.  No car.  Happiness and fulfilment in work has to play second fiddle to providing for your family.

Agree in your case no, but its not impossible as lots of people teach and many have families...as with all things in life its about making choices and 'cutting the cloth to fit', very much as the point I made in my previous post.....if you really want something [within limits i.e. I will never bee the next Simon Cowell "Your through to bootcamp"] you find a way to make it happen.

[Lightscribe]

Last allocation (big chunk) of FRES at 700 all in now. Lets go Brandon

[Democorruptcy]

4 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Last allocation (big chunk) of FRES at 700 all in now. Lets go Brandon

It's one of those dodgy looking HL price refreshes when a share has opened low. You load Fres and see 699 then it refreshes and the quote is something like 709. Makes me suspicious they are doing some sort of back pocket arb.

[Bricormortis]

16 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Last allocation (big chunk) of FRES at 700 all in now. Lets go Brandon

Yeah second ladder in for me.

[Lightscribe]

21 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

It's one of those dodgy looking HL price refreshes when a share has opened low. You load Fres and see 699 then it refreshes and the quote is something like 709. Makes me suspicious they are doing some sort of back pocket arb.

I got a quote of 706 right on the drop so took that.

[Noallegiance]

Jesus. Repsol, BP and Shell on a mission this morning

[MrXxxx]

38 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

It's one of those dodgy looking HL price refreshes when a share has opened low. You load Fres and see 699 then it refreshes and the quote is something like 709. Makes me suspicious they are doing some sort of back pocket arb.

Agree, you always seem to be able to get a quote when the price in 'Meh', but as soon as it looks half decent its a case of "call us"...that or the brokers IT/sites [yes Hl & AJ we are looking at you!] are 'Meh'!

[HousePriceMania]

9 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Agree, you always seem to be able to get a quote when the price in 'Meh', but as soon as it looks half decent its a case of "call us"...that or the brokers IT/sites [yes Hl & AJ we are looking at you!] are 'Meh'!

I'm using Interactive Brokers now and I put a buy order in at 700 to see what happens....

[geordie_lurch]

22 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Jesus. Repsol, BP and Shell on a mission this morning

Yep Shell is nearly up as much as K & S AG this morning which I bought again last week at slightly more than it is today but that's another long term hold and I more than doubled and cashed out my original cash in that

[harp]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

Last allocation (big chunk) of FRES at 700 all in now. Lets go Brandon

Why the big drop today? 

[Democorruptcy]

1 minute ago, harp said:

Why the big drop today? 

Shares in Fresnillo slumped on Wednesday as the gold and silver miner forecast a bigger-than-expected hit to 2022 production due to the Covid Omicron variant and new Mexican labour laws.

Mexico last year changed labour laws to make sure companies hired more local workers. Fresnillo said subsequent contractor uptake had varied, with underground mines, in particular in the Fresnillo District and at Ciénega, more affected due to a higher number of contractors on site resulting in an increased number of staff vacancies and a higher workforce turnover.

"Our 2022 guidance issued is given in the context of the ongoing and new operational challenges worsened by the pandemic (and the resulting impact on workforce availability) and the implementation of the new labour laws which limit use of contractors," the company said in a statement.

"As we reported in our 3Q21 update, we had anticipated a certain level of impact on production as a result of these factors in both 4Q21 and 1Q22, though we are now likely to see a greater impact in the earlier part of the year than previously expected. "

The company forecast silver production in 2022 will be below previous estimates, and that gold output will fall on year.

Attributable silver production was expected to be in the range of 50.5 - 56.5 million ounces, below previous estimates due to a lower volume of ore processed at its Saucito mine due to staff shortages, Covid-19 absenteeism and lower ore grades.

Attributable gold production expected to be in the range of 600 - 650koz, driven mainly by the Noche Buena mine coming to the end of its mine life.

[MrXxxx]

7 minutes ago, harp said:

Why the big drop today? 

 

[Lightscribe]

4 minutes ago, harp said:

Why the big drop today? 

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/amp/news/972176
 

Yup as above. Gold was actually higher than forecast, but one old mine approaching end of life, staff shortages, covid isolations, new mine coming online etc delayed, behind schedule etc. All shorter term stuff, that should resolve itself in time with PMs breaking free later this year.

 

Fresnillo PLC (LSE:FRES) has lost its shine after the precious metals miner missed silver production targets and warned 2022 would be lower than last year.

Silver production of 53.1mln ounces in 2021 was below expectations of 53.5mln-59.5mln although gold production of 751,200 ounces, while down 2.4% on 2020, was ahead of guidance of 675,000 to 725,000 ounces.

But with the pandemic hitting its workforce and new labour laws in Mexico limiting the use of contractors, it forecast lower production this year of 50.5mln to 56.5mln ounces of silver and 600,000 to 650,000 ounces of gold.

It said: "We had anticipated a certain level of impact on production as a result of these factors in both the fourth quarter of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022, though we are now likely to see a greater impact in the earlier part of the year than previously expected."

Its shares have dropped 8.99% to 732.6p.

 

 

 

[MrXxxx]

2 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/amp/news/972176
 

Yup as above. Gold was actually higher than forecast, but one old mine approaching end of life, staff shortages, covid isolations, new mine coming online etc delayed, behind schedule etc. All shorter term stuff, that should resolve itself in time with PMs breaking free later this year.

 

Fresnillo PLC (LSE:FRES) has lost its shine after the precious metals miner missed silver production targets and warned 2022 would be lower than last year.

Silver production of 53.1mln ounces in 2021 was below expectations of 53.5mln-59.5mln although gold production of 751,200 ounces, while down 2.4% on 2020, was ahead of guidance of 675,000 to 725,000 ounces.

But with the pandemic hitting its workforce and new labour laws in Mexico limiting the use of contractors, it forecast lower production this year of 50.5mln to 56.5mln ounces of silver and 600,000 to 650,000 ounces of gold.

It said: "We had anticipated a certain level of impact on production as a result of these factors in both the fourth quarter of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022, though we are now likely to see a greater impact in the earlier part of the year than previously expected."

Its shares have dropped 8.99% to 732.6p.

 

 

 

The charts were showing a downward trajectory anyway, but todays statement 'poured petrol on the fire'! :-)))

[Lightscribe]

12 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

The charts were showing a downward trajectory anyway, but todays statement 'poured petrol on the fire'! :-)))

My average would now be well into the 700’s. It’s enabled me to average down, sell back allocations up when reaching 900+ etc. This is a long term hold for me (maybe not quite at the weight I am currently) but silver will run. It’s not if, but when.

FRES will be well positioned as a springboard due to its size and location (probably one of the most politically safe in the industry).