Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[SillyBilly]

Wish I'd not read the thread tonight, got a few £k in current account for a Harley Davidson I've had my eye on, will now be buying Fresnillo in the morning with the reserved funds . Can't resist at current price as seems as good a punt as any for a double your money in a year or two jobbie.

[Joncrete Cungle]

3 minutes ago, SillyBilly said:

Wish I'd not read the thread tonight, got a few £k in current account for a Harley Davidson I've had my eye on, will now be buying Fresnillo in the morning with the reserved funds . Can't resist at current price as seems as good a punt as any for a double your money in a year or two jobbie.

I had a weekend on a mates Harley Davidson about 10 years ago and hated the bloody thing. Heavy, slow, noisy, crap brakes and handled like a ship in a storm. Fresnillo is a much better way to spend your money.

[Juniper]

24 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Well yeah but they did say that one day it will be appropriate for them to raise them.

Looking at debt to GDP it’s all going according to plan so no wonder they think it’s more appropriate to inflict a bit more pain on the plebs instead

[CannonFodder]

Minutes are here

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20220126a.htm

Continuing with QE, at least 30 billion per month. Note this is a minimum not a max

Expect to raise rates soon,

fear of new virus variants.

[Bricormortis]

43 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Well yeah but they did say that one day it will be appropriate for them to raise them.

Its the thought that counts 

Does this hold the dollar back a tad ? Hope so, good for the shiny metals.

[JREWING]

6 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Its the thought that counts 

Does this hold the dollar back a tad ? Hope so, good for the shiny metals.

DXY up, 10 year up, Shiny Stuff down.

Some even cheaper Fres in the morning, glad I've held off buying yet. Those pesky shorters ain't finished with the miner's just yet. Good buying opportunities come Friday. Sooner or later gold just might get a bid and react to Powell's bullshit? 

Poly reports in the morning, higher costs going forward, bet the market takes her to sub 1100p. Dividend guidance will be the key based on production results. 8% plus yield would be nice along with a run up to ex divided day in May.

[Democorruptcy]

10 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Its the thought that counts 

Does this hold the dollar back a tad ? Hope so, good for the shiny metals.

Uncle Dave said earlier that the 10yr was going up but it might be down, then it might be up. I'm sure he'll make his mind up soon.

 

[Axeman123]

10 minutes ago, JREWING said:

DXY up, 10 year up, Shiny Stuff down.

I have heard the first reaction by markets to the fed is often the wrong one.

We will have to wait and see, although a succesful  retest of the lows on the major US indexes would be nice.

[Noallegiance]

2 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

I have heard the first reaction by markets to the fed is often the wrong one.

We will have to wait and see, although a succesful  retest of the lows on the major US indexes would be nice.

It's happened quite a few times.

1 hour ago, Loki said:

 

By far the funniest one of these ever!

[CannonFodder]

I prefer this one

[leonardratso]

hehe like the microsoft reaction yesterday, it went down bigly after hours on great figures, then reversed like fook all day once the figures were analysed

[AWW]

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, CannonFodder said:

Is your holding under water?

The only people to make money out of that company are the 2 directors that rewarded themselves million pound bonuses .... for errr..... crashing the share price and making £30 million in share placings vanish ... though they have got 1 contract to build a few dozen windmills, but that was in place from one of the bankrupt shipyards they bought, so the person who bankrupted that shipyard was more successful at getting contracts than the 2  HARL directors.

 

[sancho panza]

Someone was psoting about the Baltic Dry Index earlier.This is probably better measure for trade,transport cost rpessures are still there

hattip Alden

[Axeman123]

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/sp-500-rallies-on-microsoftled-tech-surge-fed-decision-eyed-2749381

S&P 500 Cuts Gains as Powell Signals Aggressive Hikes Ahead to Tame Inflation

"In his press conference that followed the Fed decision, Powell said there was "quite a bit of room to raise rates without hurting jobs," stoking expectations that the Fed's plan to tighten monetary policy measures, which have underpinned risk assets, may be more agressive than expected."

Narrative chopping back and forth, just compare headline to link address!

[Harley]

4 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/sp-500-rallies-on-microsoftled-tech-surge-fed-decision-eyed-2749381

S&P 500 Cuts Gains as Powell Signals Aggressive Hikes Ahead to Tame Inflation

"In his press conference that followed the Fed decision, Powell said there was "quite a bit of room to raise rates without hurting jobs," stoking expectations that the Fed's plan to tighten monetary policy measures, which have underpinned risk assets, may be more agressive than expected."

Narrative chopping back and forth, just compare headline to link address!

[Sidd]

Over invested in the miners during the dip last summer and frankly sick of waiting on the sidelines as they keep sliding down, with not enough cash to redeploy (you live and learn). Overall portfolio still up 30%, so not all  bad news but i was up 110% at one point when the miners were at their highest. They seem to be reacting the opposite to everything thats happened in the last 8 months often defying reason. I am getting the urge to slice a lot of it down so I can redeploy elsewhere but knowing the past peak keeps holding me back and I worry they will rocket as soon as i do.

[Axeman123]

2 minutes ago, Sidd said:

Over invested in the miners during the dip last summer and frankly sick of waiting on the sidelines as they keep sliding down, with not enough cash to redeploy (you live and learn). Overall portfolio still up 30%, so not all  bad news but i was up 110% at one point when the miners were at their highest. They seem to be reacting the opposite to everything thats happened in the last 8 months often defying reason. I am getting the urge to slice a lot of it down so I can redeploy elsewhere but knowing the past peak keeps holding me back and I worry they will rocket as soon as i do.

I feel your pain.

I am down six figures of paper profits on GDXJ compared to August 2020!

Still not selling.

[leonardratso]

diamond hands there, gold to the moon, they are trying to get your gold bars cheap, whales are building.....

hmmm eh.

[Bricormortis]

Gold price is holding steady and that bodes well, biggest inflows into ishares physical gold since 2004 this year, that bodes well, just waiting for the dollar to turn.

[Loki]

Oh well, the countdown to the melt-up (Or not) has begun....

[Libspero]

32 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Narrative chopping back and forth, just compare headline to link address!

The narrative seems straight out of the fed playbook.    They’re going in aggressively on the talking,  while simultaneously doing little or nothing to actually raise rates.  
 

So who will blink first..

[Don Coglione]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

The only people to make money out of that company are the 2 directors that rewarded themselves million pound bonuses .... for errr..... crashing the share price and making £30 million in share placings vanish ... though they have got 1 contract to build a few dozen windmills, but that was in place from one of the bankrupt shipyards they bought, so the person who bankrupted that shipyard was more successful at getting contracts than the 2  HARL directors.

 

Yep. I was 70k up when they were focussed on gas storage, before the phoenix fraud stepped in as CEO and acquired the leverage opportunities that are those bankrupt yards. Now 20k+ down - lesson learned...

[leonardratso]

diamond hands mofo......

[Hardhat]

1 hour ago, Sidd said:

Over invested in the miners during the dip last summer and frankly sick of waiting on the sidelines as they keep sliding down, with not enough cash to redeploy (you live and learn). Overall portfolio still up 30%, so not all  bad news but i was up 110% at one point when the miners were at their highest. They seem to be reacting the opposite to everything thats happened in the last 8 months often defying reason. I am getting the urge to slice a lot of it down so I can redeploy elsewhere but knowing the past peak keeps holding me back and I worry they will rocket as soon as i do.

I'm down on everything expect GDGB (+3%) and HZM (+57%). Not by much on GJGB (-5%) But down -15% on Yamana... and a few % on Jupiter Gold and Silver. I'm overweight PMs so portfolio doesn't look that great even with big oil gains!

When the miners run though, they really run and we get 10s of % gains in a day.

Would be good to get a very low tranche of FRES. I've bought and sold them twice over the last two years and made money each time.