Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Plan-b]

9 minutes ago, Harley said:

That was a nice Kitco link thanks.  It reminds me of many years ago when I "cleverly" bought a (reputable) report on PM miners and went out and bought them.  And lost a ton.  Maybe they had great fundamentals but I knew nothing about price action back then.  I thought if I buy them I'll do OK 'cause that's what the smart guys in the room said.  It's been such a very long journey......!  Many years later, I think I might be finally ready to read the link!  

Ah the Kitco days, from those days the definition of a precious metals mine was "A hole in the ground with a liar standing at the bottom" same as it ever was

[Plan-b]

Who remembers the excellent Kitco poster 'Cyclist' could that have been our current gracious host? 

[Harley]

32 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

BP's trade high so far today 399.85p - looks like it will get back over 400 again soon

A fair gap up yesterday.  A very good month with renewed momentum but now getting toppy?  The Global Energy ETF IXC is looking toppy too but who knows these days.

[kibuc]

On 06/01/2022 at 08:27, kibuc said:

For whatever reason, I'm not getting any March 2020 vibes

I might want to retract that statement after today. Time to buckle up, embrace the suck and be grateful that at least I didn't own any GATO.

There's been a flurry of good drill results all around my watchlist recently but those won't matter until they suddenly matter.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

It's always the prices in the crash now, not average ladder price on the way down! 

Ladders caught bottom on most,If someone started and laddered they should be up 52% on BT in less than two years.The institutions where saying sell at the bottom.They will ladder in on the way up.The March crash should of seen people get a few ladders at once as they fell through them that quick. @sancho panza put his coma work up on the sector  when BT hit 95p and his scores said it offered the best risk/reward in the sector,that was a bullseye.

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

Macro, fundamentals, technicals!

Hmmm, I notice that's just one letter away from NFT!!!             ...but I do agree btw.                                                        Actually I need to find a 'lazy/simple technical strategy' for my own pension-pot portfolio, however I'm not a trader - but instead would like a method to help indicate good arbitration/swop positions in my long-term-hold ISA/SIPP portfolio sectors and stocks. Ie I don't want to just do vanilla % rebalancing, but instead ideally would like a way to help me capture macro up/down market price trends between sectors. I am researching this but not easy to find because as I say I'm specifically looking for a row risk method for my pension funds. Am probably not describing this very well, but if anyone is applying a similar sounding strategy to their own pension funds, please could they let me know how they are doing this?

[HousePriceMania]

3 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

In the old days a market crash resulted in lower interest rates/yields, market uncertainty rush to "safe", so PM's should do well just after the margin calls and the dust settles. Now with real yields so negative it seems like the 'rules' have changed? I remember querying in here that rates might not rise as much or as quick as suggested and said in 2011 we had 5.7% RPI and 0.5% base rate. Apparently the USA were going to force us to raise but it doesn't seem like they are very willing! 

It's different this time.

[CannonFodder]

I must say that i am surprised that gold and silver hasnt run yet considering the extent of negative real rates. Gdxj today is wow.

Of my split between o&g, telecoms and tobacco, its the only one going down in this negative real rate world. I thought this amount of negative real rate was the uncertainty, not pms going downwards as negative real rates go more negative.

I.ve bought a lot more pms as they decreased alongside the rate movement and feel overweight now. Torn between buying more at cheap prices or keeping some allocation discipline as that discipline is keeping me in profit overall 

Not a moan but am honestly stumped, have I missed something as this doesnt compute with my frame of the world yet it has happened so my view is flawed, grateful to learn anything new.

I feel like I.ve missed something. Why are pms dropping as real rates go further in the negative.

[Noallegiance]

3 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

I must say that i am surprised that gold and silver hasnt run yet considering the extent of negative real rates. Gdxj today is wow.

Of my split between o&g, telecoms and tobacco, its the only one going down in this negative real rate world. I thought this amount of negative real rate was the uncertainty, not pms going downwards as negative real rates go more negative.

I.ve bought a lot more pms as they decreased alongside the rate movement and feel overweight now. Torn between buying more at cheap prices or keeping some allocation discipline as that discipline is keeping me in profit overall 

Not a moan but am honestly stumped, have I missed something as this doesnt compute with my frame of the world yet it has happened so my view is flawed, grateful to learn anything new.

I feel like I.ve missed something. Why are pms dropping as real rates go further in the negative.

My guess would be that this 40 year cycle has been so long that market dynamics are essentially the same, but market participants have different views on market dynamics.

The more it stays down, for me, the better the end result.

In any case, it's still in a great long-term trend.

Anything too quick now would be bad news for it, I think.

[Axeman123]

2 hours ago, nirvana said:

what's Uncle Dave got to say?

Hes going skiing!

 

[janch]

35 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Ladders caught bottom on most,If someone started and laddered they should be up 52% on BT in less than two years.The institutions where saying sell at the bottom.They will ladder in on the way up.The March crash should of seen people get a few ladders at once as they fell through them that quick. @sancho panza put his coma work up on the sector  when BT hit 95p and his scores said it offered the best risk/reward in the sector,that was a bullseye.

This is one of my best performers so far and I did get in near the bottom and have top-sliced several times.  The first time I managed to get some of the last peak around Jun/Jul 21 and then bought some more in Sept 21 when  the price was going down. 

I wish I had this degree of luck (skill?) with all my holdings.  My silver shares are soooooooo underwater at the moment.

[nirvana]

Just now, Axeman123 said:

Hes going skiing!

bet he is, gay boy style with a cock in each hand! 

[nirvana]

i told @Democorruptcyto dump Fresnillo on another thread 

DXY looking strong comrades 

[MrXxxx]

FRES stats:

On HL: PE=21.04, Yield=2.82%

On Google finance: PE=10.46, Yield=3.68%

What's the point in having them if they are so inaccurate?!

[MrXxxx]

Just thinking about a recent discussion on here regarding taking up Fixed low interest rate mortgages and/or those here with sufficient funds to buy outright but choose to rent. For either, but especially the latter that may one day want to buy/not want to 'fall off the housing ladder', would buying UK housebuilders be a sensible hedge against property prices whilst renting?...just a though I had [with my limited financial knowledge], and want to know if its daft or not.

[CannonFodder]

3 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Just thinking about a recent discussion on here regarding taking up Fixed low interest rate mortgages and/or those here with sufficient funds to buy outright but choose to rent. For either, but especially the latter that may one day want to buy/not want to 'fall off the housing ladder', would buying UK housebuilders be a sensible hedge against property prices whilst renting?...just a though I had [with my limited financial knowledge], and want to know if its daft or not.

IMHO they are priced high, their profits depend on volume of sales

Input costs of materials up by inflation

If IR increase then sale prices will drop or number of sales will drop as less able to support such large mortgage.

[Democorruptcy]

6 minutes ago, nirvana said:

i told @Democorruptcyto dump Fresnillo on another thread 

DXY looking strong comrades 

Yes, there was no need for that. I was only trying to get a job down the mines for some poor unemployed Mexicans, like the benevolent chap I am. Anyway keep up at the back, we stopped calling Centrica the 'Scottish play' yesterday when we handed the baton to the F word, as the "Mexican play", at least until somebody top slices it. Then one of your shares can become a play.

[Libspero]

10 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

FRES stats:

On HL: PE=21.04, Yield=2.82%

On Google finance: PE=10.46, Yield=3.68%

What's the point in having them if they are so inaccurate?!

Not specifically related to FRES, but I've found this data tends to be a bit all over the place as well.   Presumably trailing and forecast accounts for large discrepancies.  But I'd be interested too if anyone can explain ?

What source do people use for their data?  I'm finding Yahoo Finance about as good as any other for free data.  Anyone found anything better ?

[nirvana]

1 minute ago, Libspero said:

I'm finding Yahoo Finance about as good as any other for free data.  Anyone found anything better ?

hate yahoo with a passion, google finance is good for keeping lists (and drawing a few graphs) but I hate them fukkers too.....must be running out of love today 

[Libspero]

10 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

would buying UK housebuilders be a sensible hedge against property prices whilst renting?

Sort of ish. 

The question is where do you expect prices to go from here?   Bear in mind during the last crash builders went through the floor,  and the spectre of rising interest rates stalk the market for the first time in decades..

I'm not sure if now is the time I'd want to gamble on builders.   Seems like limited upside,  and a lot of potential downside IMHO etc.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

Hmmm, I notice that's just one letter away from NFT!!!             ...but I do agree btw.                                                        Actually I need to find a 'lazy/simple technical strategy' for my own pension-pot portfolio, however I'm not a trader - but instead would like a method to help indicate good arbitration/swop positions in my long-term-hold ISA/SIPP portfolio sectors and stocks. Ie I don't want to just do vanilla % rebalancing, but instead ideally would like a way to help me capture macro up/down market price trends between sectors. I am researching this but not easy to find because as I say I'm specifically looking for a row risk method for my pension funds. Am probably not describing this very well, but if anyone is applying a similar sounding strategy to their own pension funds, please could they let me know how they are doing this?

Simple moving averages are usually a popular place to start.  @sancho panza might be the go to for this.  The problem with pension funds is whether you have the data for their funds.  Fine in a SIPP, with ETFs, investment trusts, etc.  Or I guess you could use ETFs as a proxy (e.g. Emerging market ETF as a proxy for any in-house fund, etc).

[Libspero]

3 minutes ago, nirvana said:

hate yahoo with a passion, google finance is good for keeping lists (and drawing a few graphs) but I hate them fukkers too.....must be running out of love today 

I used to use the bloomberg app,  which is very good,   but they want £300+ a year now.   

Do you pay for a platform or what do you use ?

[Harley]

32 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

Gdxj today is wow.

Gappy as hell on the daily isn't it (GJGB) despite fair volume.

[Harley]

14 minutes ago, Libspero said:

But I'd be interested too if anyone can explain ?

I gave up long ago!

[Harley]

16 minutes ago, Libspero said:

Do you pay for a platform or what do you use ?

Chipping in (excuse me!), I use TradingView and think it's awesome.  It ended many years of searching for me.  It just gets better with new stuff almost every day.  So much functionality and coverage (instruments, geos, markets, etc).  Financials as well as charts.  Plus screeners and even their algo views on buys and sells.  Worth the sub, even the entry level.  The social media stuff around it is not my bag but for pure charts and other data with great functionality it's the daddy.  I believe it's still free to use to try.  I now use the app rather than web version.  Also have their app (basic) on my phone.