Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, Sidd said:

Over invested in the miners during the dip last summer and frankly sick of waiting on the sidelines as they keep sliding down, with not enough cash to redeploy (you live and learn). Overall portfolio still up 30%, so not all  bad news but i was up 110% at one point when the miners were at their highest. They seem to be reacting the opposite to everything thats happened in the last 8 months often defying reason. I am getting the urge to slice a lot of it down so I can redeploy elsewhere but knowing the past peak keeps holding me back and I worry they will rocket as soon as i do.

Similar position with miners, just forget about them for a couple of years ... time to sell is when they spike again.

[Hancock]

12 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

When the miners run though, they really run and we get 10s of % gains in a day.

Exactly, seems those of us who held last time they spiked have learned a valuable lesson.

In that we need to learn to profit take when they shoot up, instead of waiting for them to 20 bag.

[Loki]

I don't understand any of this.  But someone might. Dark index at 51.4%

 

https://squeezemetrics.com/monitor/dix

Quote

 

The Dark Index (DIX) is a dollar-weighted measure of the Dark Pool Indicator (DPI) of the S&P 500 components. When the DIX is higher, market sentiment in dark pools is generally more bullish. When the DIX is lower, it is more bearish or uncertain.

Gamma Exposure (GEX) is a dollar-denominated measure of option market-makers' hedging obligations. When GEX is high, the option market is implying that volatility will be low. When GEX is low, volatility is high, and while we expect a choppy market, further losses are unlikely.

 

 

[wherebee]

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/svl-chart.5508969/page-2248

 

which one of you lot wrote this?

 

In other news, papers in Oz full today of the news Oz gas producers are shipping LNG to the UK to stop you lot freezing to death....

[DurhamBorn]

Print money from nowhere,end up with peoples real assets.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/01/26/taxpayers-left-stake-bolton-wanderers-5m-pandemic-loan-turned/

[Hancock]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Print money from nowhere,end up with peoples real assets.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/01/26/taxpayers-left-stake-bolton-wanderers-5m-pandemic-loan-turned/

Bolton Wanderers were bankrupt as they couldn't pay a £1.2 million tax bill just a matter of months before we all died of covid.

Yet several months later they're gifted £5 million of taxpayers money, and the taxpayer only gets a 8% of this club, so it was presumably valued at £62.5mln in August 2020 ... have to ask yourself who done the due diligence here!
https://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/sport/19877385.bolton-wanderers-convert-5million-covid-pandemic-loan-shares-company/

I despair at my stupidity for not milking the system back then, the money i should have taken from the BBL would have meant retiring with several grand a year extra.

[SillyBilly]

2 lots into FRES this morning, one in ISA and one in SIPP, around 655 average. Will look to buy more if it goes down further and get a lower av.

[Democorruptcy]

17 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

I am the proud owner of some FRES shares now, whether I wanted them or not. Least I know my laddering down mechanism works on IB

 

Fresnillo Plc

698.40 GBX−106.60 (13.24%)today

26 Jan, 14:44 GMT • Disclaimer

LON: FRES

 

 

 

Laddering down going well, your next target of 650 just hit! What's the next lower ladder?

[Pip321]

12 hours ago, SillyBilly said:

Wish I'd not read the thread tonight, got a few £k in current account for a Harley Davidson I've had my eye on, will now be buying Fresnillo in the morning with the reserved funds . Can't resist at current price as seems as good a punt as any for a double your money in a year or two jobbie.

I bet you are glad you never read the boards yesterday and saved another 30p this morning.😉

I didn’t read the board but I jumped in at 688p🤦🏻‍♂️…only a small amount (ie remainder of ISA) but might drop further and wobble for a while before recovering.

Lots of jitters in the market at the moment…so I really must not jump in at the moment. FOMO at play for me.  

[Lightscribe]

9 hours ago, Hancock said:

Exactly, seems those of us who held last time they spiked have learned a valuable lesson.

In that we need to learn to profit take when they shoot up, instead of waiting for them to 20 bag.

Ladders ladders ladders. I’m overweight in FRES, I’ll be offloading allocations at the following ratios 900, 1200, 1500 (should it all go to plan when silver runs, in which I’ll have 50% of my allocation left) I’ll leave the rest and the other cash will be add into my Dosbods staple holdings in any downturn.

I sold my POLY last week after 10% gain, I’ve got more cash aside now, for the results and further dip to rebuy today at 1100 and 1000. Anything below that is a bonus. Those allocations will be staying with me for the duration because of the dividend.

Silver has been manipulated for such a long time, that once it breaks free from the JPM shackles it won’t be coming back down anywhere near to the current prices.

I feel that the S&P500 will drag the FTSE down with it in a crash, simply because the general masses are thick basically (covid has confirmed that) and so many economists have still got the fundamentals wrong of why this is happening. First they said there would be no inflation, negative rates, then no rate rises etc, they really have no understanding of macroeconomic cycles.

They have long forgotten that high dividend stocks are the natural place for the inflation cycle. They will stick to trying to catch a falling knife in the vanguard passives and tech/growth (when approaching stagflation) which will take everything down by equal measure which in turn creates panic and fear.

As DB said, with his example of his mentor just leaving his macroeconomic reports papers on the desk left unread. That’s what we’re dealing with here, most have never experienced an inflationary cycle.

[MrXxxx]

4 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

I feel that the S&P500 will drag the FTSE down with it in a crash, simply because the general masses are thick basically (covid has confirmed that) and so many economists have still got the fundamentals wrong of why this is happening. First they said there would be no inflation, negative rates, then no rate rises etc, they really have no understanding of macroeconomic cycles.

They have long forgotten that high dividend stocks are the natural place for the inflation cycle. They will stick to trying to catch a falling knife in the vanguard passives and tech/growth (when approaching stagflation) which will take everything down by equal measure which in turn creates panic and fear.

100%.

[Bricormortis]

S and P is likely to dip lower for now and can visit 4100 or lower, with silver is not going anywhere short term. In my opinion.

[Democorruptcy]

42 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Ladders ladders ladders. I’m overweight in FRES, I’ll be offloading allocations at the following ratios 900, 1200, 1500 (should it all go to plan when silver runs, in which I’ll have 50% of my allocation left) I’ll leave the rest and the other cash will be add into my Dosbods staple holdings in any downturn.

I sold my POLY last week after 10% gain, I’ve got more cash aside now, for the results and further dip to rebuy today at 1100 and 1000. Anything below that is a bonus. Those allocations will be staying with me for the duration because of the dividend.

Silver has been manipulated for such a long time, that once it breaks free from the JPM shackles it won’t be coming back down anywhere near to the current prices.

I feel that the S&P500 will drag the FTSE down with it in a crash, simply because the general masses are thick basically (covid has confirmed that) and so many economists have still got the fundamentals wrong of why this is happening. First they said there would be no inflation, negative rates, then no rate rises etc, they really have no understanding of macroeconomic cycles.

They have long forgotten that high dividend stocks are the natural place for the inflation cycle. They will stick to trying to catch a falling knife in the vanguard passives and tech/growth (when approaching stagflation) which will take everything down by equal measure which in turn creates panic and fear.

As DB said, with his example of his mentor just leaving his macroeconomic reports papers on the desk left unread. That’s what we’re dealing with here, most have never experienced an inflationary cycle.

Reading your reasoning there, why overweight FRES then? Neither FRES (or POLY) are pure silver plays, I also prefer silver which is one of the reasons why I hadn't bought those. FRES is also not a high dividend stock, if the share prices goes up there's no guarantee the % yield will increase.

I don't know what to make of PMs, been tempted to buy again but resisted. The real yield on the 10yr has turned so negative they should have been running up. I had a little dabble on FRES yesterday because I didn't expect The Fed to raise, so thought there was a chance PMs might do better in response. It seems that so far no rate rise but the promises of imminent rate rises have been believed again.

 

[Majorpain]

17 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Lots of jitters in the market at the moment…so I really must not jump in at the moment. FOMO at play for me.  

FRES has managed to properly upset the rest of the FTSE miners, Peru has calmed down massively and HOC got another wallop for good measure!  Bottom in 2019 was in 500's, DYOR but if you are patient you may get lucky (or not...).

[HousePriceMania]

8 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

FRES has managed to properly upset the rest of the FTSE miners, Peru has calmed down massively and HOC got another wallop for good measure!  Bottom in 2019 was in 500's, DYOR but if you are patient you may get lucky (or not...).

 

I need to log into IT and move my ladder down....

 

 Fresnillo Plc

656.80 GBX−31.00 (4.51%)today

27 Jan, 09:37 GMT • Disclaimer

LON: FRES

I

[HousePriceMania]

Too late....Dunno if that's a good or a bad thing.

 

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

Laddering down going well, your next target of 650 just hit! What's the next lower ladder?

This is my ladder position now

I only set up the buy order at 700 just to see if someone would bit  at that price...didn't expect it to trigger....certainly didnt expect 650 to be hit.

[Lightscribe]

22 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Reading your reasoning there, why overweight FRES then? Neither FRES (or POLY) are pure silver plays, I also prefer silver which is one of the reasons why I hadn't bought those. FRES is also not a high dividend stock, if the share prices goes up there's no guarantee the % yield will increase.

I don't know what to make of PMs, been tempted to buy again but resisted. The real yield on the 10yr has turned so negative they should have been running up. I had a little dabble on FRES yesterday because I didn't expect The Fed to raise, so thought there was a chance PMs might do better in response. It seems that so far no rate rise but the promises of imminent rate rises have been believed again.

 

The rate rises are coming however. The S&P 500 should have jumped at the news yesterday, but it didn’t. I believe sentiment has turned, I may be wrong obviously, we shall see come March.

FRES is a common silver play (I’m not in it for the dividend) as the biggest silver miner in the world, and it very accessible in funds etc with it being on the FTSE 100.
When the market crashes PMs will run first, and it will run too and be one of the first out the traps.

Heres an example of that in 2020

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/c5a4d9ea-36e0-47ca-8433-f01be19e6980

[Lightscribe]

24 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

FRES has managed to properly upset the rest of the FTSE miners, Peru has calmed down massively and HOC got another wallop for good measure!  Bottom in 2019 was in 500's, DYOR but if you are patient you may get lucky (or not...).

Silver price is at $23/24 now however, so my reckoning is that it won’t reach that low.

[HousePriceMania]

19 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

The rate rises are coming however. The S&P 500 should have jumped at the news yesterday, but it didn’t. I believe sentiment has turned, I may be wrong obviously, we shall see come March.

FRES is a common silver play (I’m not in it for the dividend) as the biggest silver miner in the world, and it very accessible in funds etc with it being on the FTSE 100.
When the market crashes PMs will run first, and it will run too and be one of the first out the traps.

Heres an example of that in 2020

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/c5a4d9ea-36e0-47ca-8433-f01be19e6980

Are they though, what, after 40% inflation ?

History is littered with fail systems where the people in charge just keep doubling down and printing money.  The FED etc are waiting for an excuse to say...see would told you so inflation is temprary so we wont raise....even if we have 10% inflation.

There is something deeply wrong going on right now,  I think the U.S. has lost it, the question now is, how ****ed is the UK.

March BoE meeting will be telling.  Anything short of a 0.5% rate raise and they are just going to let inflation rip.  If the housing bubble implodes even -5% then I expect these evil ****s to bring in -ve and £2Tn theft this time.

I ordered 50 silver brits last week and I've just unpackaged them and they feel good :-) 

[Democorruptcy]

12 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

The rate rises are coming however. The S&P 500 should have jumped at the news yesterday, but it didn’t. I believe sentiment has turned, we shall see come March.

FRES is a common silver play (I’m not in it for the dividend) as the biggest silver miner in the world, and it very accessible in funds etc with it being on the FTSE 100.
When the market crashes PMs will run first, and it will run too and be one of the first out the traps.

Heres an example of that in 2020

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/c5a4d9ea-36e0-47ca-8433-f01be19e6980

The rate rises are always coming!

That article https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcontent%2Fc5a4d9ea-36e0-47ca-8433-f01be19e6980 says Silver is 33% FRES revenues and 15% of POLY

Just had a look to see where POLY comes in behind FRES, number 8 in Kitco's 2020 top 10

Good luck with your plan.

 

[JREWING]

36 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

FRES has managed to properly upset the rest of the FTSE miners, Peru has calmed down massively and HOC got another wallop for good measure!  Bottom in 2019 was in 500's, DYOR but if you are patient you may get lucky (or not...).

RBC just cut to hold 575p. Fres.

I've not added yet. I don't think the miners slide is over by a long stretch.

It's one fuck up after another. Part of me thinks it's all downplayed to extend mine life and wait for higher pog.

AISC are ticking up while gold awaits it's tear. Poly looking at ~1100 to 1200 to get it out the ground. Still a 600 margin.

Another red day. Never mind Spoons is open 12 o clock kick off.

[Harley]

This goes out to all my Russian stocks.  You know who you are.......... 

 

[Lightscribe]

6 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

The rate rises are always coming!

That article https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcontent%2Fc5a4d9ea-36e0-47ca-8433-f01be19e6980 says Silver is 33% FRES revenues and 15% of POLY

Just had a look to see where POLY comes in behind FRES, number 8 in Kitco's 2020 top 10

Good luck with your plan.

 

Revenues will change % with an eventual higher silver price. PMs to the moon, that is my plan! 

[Libspero]

Wow..  what an ass raping on FRES.  Don’t think I ever lost so much on one trade so quickly.  I bought as a “have a bit of gold as a safe hedge against BK type events”..   down 20% in 3 days .

If it goes much lower I’ll be tempted to buy a bit more as a purely speculative punt