Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Castlevania]

1 minute ago, Transistor Man said:

I’m not sure how the saving £30 billion(!) on each new power plant will work.

HPC is planned for grid connection in 2026. I guess that’ll slip a bit. 

Everything else will be 2030s, at best, imo. 

It seems to have gone quiet on Wylfa, mooreside and the others. 

Pay for the capex using their own balance sheet/borrowing would be my guess

[Loki]

How do i make the number go up

[leonardratso]

11 minutes ago, Loki said:

How do i make the number go up

by buying MMMMOOOOOOAAAARRR!!!!!

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

by buying MMMMOOOOOOAAAARRR!!!!!

Let me run this past twitter but I like it

[Lightscribe]

https://www.barrons.com/articles/white-house-executive-action-regulate-cryptos-national-security-51643312454
 

Yup as predicted. I think they’re anticipating a major blow off in the everything bubble.

[CannonFodder]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/01/24/biden-calls-fox-news-reporter-peter-doocy-a-stupid-son-of-a-bitch.html

Anyone seen this? Biden insults a reporter when he doesnt know mike is on, he also makes a comment on inflation

[sancho panza]

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Notice how they now see what the macro cross market work said nearly two years ago.They are setting up for people to buy when we were buying at 95p and some.Fantastic as well that @sancho panza coma score showed BT as the likely best buy at that time and it has indeed been the best up 100% since that day.

The reason they all missed it then is because they didnt have a macro roadmap showing inflation at this point so inflation locked contracts didnt show up to them as meaning anything.

I remember them scoring a clear 21/25,best in the sector by 2 points that year.

The full years will be coming in soon enough to jsutify me starting with thisnyears coma scores to be fair.(ALthough BT and VOD report a quarter later than most ).Still going to be intriguing.Without prejudging it I suspect TEF Deutsch will be the leading telecoms play this year although Turkcell will likely high score as well mainly due to the recent sell off of it's mother ship Turkey.

Looking forward to th goldies to which will still be FCF machines I suspect ,unrecognised as such by the big bright world out there

11 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Welcome to clown world, JPM as part of their settlement 2020-21 into spoofing the silver market got their knuckles wrapped and promised not to do it again, at that exact time JPM exited Bank of America came in and took over the 800m oz Comex short position!  Its a big club and you are not in it.

The system needs a purge every once in while to keep it stable.  The problem is that the 2008 problems (derivatives mainly) were simply papered over and not fixed, so now there is the "too much money chasing too few assets" inflation drama combined at the exact same time with not enough dollars in the world for everyone.  Fed in snookered in that fixing one problem blows up another.

WIse words MP,i was saying to my Mum the other day when I was explainign our lack of options exposure on this recent oil run up that the market had moved too quick for me and I felt that people with deep deep pockets had entered the sector and all of a sudden I don't really want to play any more.Only people who trade would undertand but it's a bit like that old military maxim about the 'abscence of the normal,the presence of the abnormal'.I couldn't tell why,but all of a sudden the price moves were different to before.I hadmy targets set,BP 320 RDSB/XOM equivalent ,I got about an hour one  friday to get the moeny on and I was running round doing school runs.Same again recently when I was pricing BP 400 Jun 22's for a decent punt when they hit 360.Same again,no time to get on.I need time to price bets like that,preferably over a few days and liek you say,it's a big club I'm not in it and I'm not going to bid on Jun 400 calls with the price at 390-not that sort of person.

Rfe the next bit about the Fed being snookered,absolutely right,they raise they're screwed,they cut/hold they get screwed another way.

WHile I'm nagging you,you;re an old hand with the miner,I still remember you kindly putting me into pan african for a song a year or two back(and some otehr pearls over the years),have you got an entry price in mind or are you staying well clear of the Mexican play?

I'm tempted by some summer 700  calls if they hit 600.

[sancho panza]

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

There is and its critical first that free cash will be there to pay coupons and that it can be paid off or part paid off and some rolled over however bad it gets.Derivatives on those debts are my worry.Hedge currency etc is fine,but not if the currency rockets your debts are in and counter parties fail.Its the main worry i have for my holdings because i cant quantify it.Its like putting a few guys down in a scrap and walking out the pub all smug then the one you didnt see wacks you from behind with a chair.

I think it's one of the reasons to hold as decomplex a portfolio as possible.My biggest concern is being left in sterling cash tbh.

Big oil is going to get paid in whatever currency has value-gold,crypto,dollar() etc.Where you could get hosed is companies that don't have the international exposure but if you're aware of it,you could hedge by buying less or sprayin n praying more.

8 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Just thinking about a recent discussion on here regarding taking up Fixed low interest rate mortgages and/or those here with sufficient funds to buy outright but choose to rent. For either, but especially the latter that may one day want to buy/not want to 'fall off the housing ladder', would buying UK housebuilders be a sensible hedge against property prices whilst renting?...just a though I had [with my limited financial knowledge], and want to know if its daft or not.

I'd hedge with the banks instead,less volatile,upside and downside covered by HM Govt.

8 hours ago, Harley said:

Simple moving averages are usually a popular place to start.  @sancho panza might be the go to for this.  The problem with pension funds is whether you have the data for their funds.  Fine in a SIPP, with ETFs, investment trusts, etc.  Or I guess you could use ETFs as a proxy (e.g. Emerging market ETF as a proxy for any in-house fund, etc).

and @JMD I've seen Doug SHort push the 10/12 month moving averages ,you could see how this applies to the sectors you like JMD,They work nicely with the S&P but the whipsaws can really hurt and with any known strategy you could run into the big boys targetting certain price points to flush out rabbits.

7 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I remember a general discussion about ladders pre-pre-crash being in steps of -7%? It depends how close to the crash you started the ladders. This 2nd thread started June 18. BT 52%? it was well mentioned on here when the price was at least 225. Four -7% ladders from there would be 209, 195, 181 & 168 so money exhausted well before the crash price. I'm not complaining because I don't set ladders. Just checked and my first BT was 168 in Aug 19 but I sold it all at 203 in Oct 19.  I only mention the ladders because I think it was @Bobthebuilderwho said the other day that the ladders had worked well. I thought 'did they?' but didn't have time to respond. They could well have worked well for him due to later timing. Obviously bigger stakes in the crash reduce the average ladder price, say you catch 2 or 3 together but bigger stakes in a crash isn't the plan of ladders, it's just timing, crash timing. Obviously divis help, if they pay them!

I don't remember anyone on here pushing BT until the 100-110 level in 2020(DB was buying around that time as well).Shares always get talked about but I know we only got two ladders 1-10 and 1-00,that was it,sat there waiting for it to drop to 90 and it didn't while I was watching.WIth Vod we have small ladders at 1-50 and 1-00 but liekly the whole 3% position is in around 1-25.

Ref ladder spacing,I think I work out how much I'm willing to shunt in,and then space it accordingly.eg with BATS,we ended up with a 3% psotion with a 25 handle.I was ready if they hit 20 to bag another 2.5% and that would be it.I was keen to get a decent fomo bet on and then leave it there for a long time at thatprice.

I think it's a bit dangerous to set firm ladders and per centage rungs.ie if it's a risky stock,then 150/125/100 where as BT might be priced per 10p.

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, Transistor Man said:

I’m not sure how the saving £30 billion(!) on each new power plant will work.

HPC is planned for grid connection in 2026. I guess that’ll slip a bit. 

Everything else will be 2030s, at best, imo. 

It seems to have gone quiet on Wylfa, mooreside and the others. 

TM ahve you got any trades you're considering to run off this growth in nuclear,I've been eyeing rolls and EDF,bth look cheapish.dyor natch

[mcdongle]

4 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

The USA will promise gas supplies to Europe to go along with its scheme and then fuck the alternative supply up (tankers), the price will go through the roof as Europes Economies are simultaneously trashed.

This is act 2.

Are there enough tankers? On a previous post it was reported that a tanker has enough gas for one third of a days supply for the UK. So that's 21 tankers a week, Plus it takes roughly 6 days to cross the Atlantic refill etc. And then what about the rest of Europe..

[Phil]

1 minute ago, mcdongle said:

Are there enough tankers? On a previous post it was reported that a tanker has enough gas for one third of a days supply for the UK. So that's 21 tankers a week, Plus it takes roughly 6 days to cross the Atlantic refill etc. And then what about the rest of Europe..

So, basically we are ground zero Dresden . But, will fres rise tomorrow? I have a big coat.

[Lightscribe]

As most of the country will be reliant on universal credit anyway in the future, may as well give it to everyone. What a brilliant idea, let’s call it ermm….UBI, yes that’ll do.
 

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/universal-credit-could-scrapped-adults-22892777.amp

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

TM ahve you got any trades you're considering to run off this growth in nuclear,I've been eyeing rolls and EDF,bth look cheapish.dyor natch

Think RR. is a long-term prospect as they are 'bogged down' with their wide-body engine and how they make money from this [servicing with engine as a loss leader]. With how Covid has changed the business travel model and airlines moving away from WB in the short/medium term I can't see them performing anything above average for a while...I think the micro reactors are a long way off. Also, until they reinstall the divi the institutional investors will no be coming 'back on board', and as they have just recently has a rights issue, 'giving' out divis would be seen as 'poor form'.

NB. I own RR.

[MrXxxx]

9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Only people who trade would undertand but it's a bit like that old military maxim about the 'abscence of the normal,the presence of the abnormal'.I couldn't tell why,but all of a sudden the price moves were different to before.I hadmy targets set,BP 320 RDSB/XOM equivalent ,I got about an hour one  friday to get the moeny on and I was running round doing school runs.Same again recently when I was pricing BP 400 Jun 22's for a decent punt when they hit 360.Same again,no time to get on.

Not a criticism but I wonder why you don't use stop orders/stop losses...any particular reason?

[Axeman123]

9 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/white-house-executive-action-regulate-cryptos-national-security-51643312454
 

Yup as predicted. I think they’re anticipating a major blow off in the everything bubble.

That would make sense, that said the proposed action is merely to have federal agencies draw up proposals for regulation by October. Algos might go mad off the headline, which is probably the intent of the announcement, but it doesn't seem substantial at this stage.

5 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

As most of the country will be reliant on universal credit anyway in the future, may as well give it to everyone. What a brilliant idea, let’s call it ermm….UBI, yes that’ll do.
 

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/universal-credit-could-scrapped-adults-22892777.amp

Yeah, UBI but not if you are working and lots of extras for various needs. So more people getting cash, plus more administrative complexity in administering it. Worst of both worlds - or best of both if you are a lefty civil servant!

[HousePriceMania]

I know someone who used to have to do this up William Hills to try and recoup their losses.

 

[HousePriceMania]

10 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

don't you ever learn?!

 

i told ya, when i post do NOT buy!

 

Now look what ya done to Fresnillo!!!

 

(pic copyright @nirvana)

 

 

 

PMSL.  I think this is why I like this thread so much, you can be losing money and still pissing yourself laughing.

[Transistor Man]

9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

TM ahve you got any trades you're considering to run off this growth in nuclear,I've been eyeing rolls and EDF,bth look cheapish.dyor natch

Not specifically. EDF doesn’t seem to be what is was. And French politics is involved, so who knows?

Since UK nuclear new build will not be riding to the rescue any time soon, it’s natural gas all the way for me. 

 

[Democorruptcy]

9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I think it's one of the reasons to hold as decomplex a portfolio as possible.My biggest concern is being left in sterling cash tbh.

Big oil is going to get paid in whatever currency has value-gold,crypto,dollar() etc.Where you could get hosed is companies that don't have the international exposure but if you're aware of it,you could hedge by buying less or sprayin n praying more.

I'd hedge with the banks instead,less volatile,upside and downside covered by HM Govt.

and @JMD I've seen Doug SHort push the 10/12 month moving averages ,you could see how this applies to the sectors you like JMD,They work nicely with the S&P but the whipsaws can really hurt and with any known strategy you could run into the big boys targetting certain price points to flush out rabbits.

I don't remember anyone on here pushing BT until the 100-110 level in 2020(DB was buying around that time as well).Shares always get talked about but I know we only got two ladders 1-10 and 1-00,that was it,sat there waiting for it to drop to 90 and it didn't while I was watching.WIth Vod we have small ladders at 1-50 and 1-00 but liekly the whole 3% position is in around 1-25.

Ref ladder spacing,I think I work out how much I'm willing to shunt in,and then space it accordingly.eg with BATS,we ended up with a 3% psotion with a 25 handle.I was ready if they hit 20 to bag another 2.5% and that would be it.I was keen to get a decent fomo bet on and then leave it there for a long time at thatprice.

I think it's a bit dangerous to set firm ladders and per centage rungs.ie if it's a risky stock,then 150/125/100 where as BT might be priced per 10p.

I've been thinking about tweaking some sort of ladder system. Like you say I'm not sure about set percentages, the danger there is it's a slow grind down than a bang in a crash you go in too early. I wondered about weighting ladders. Which way do you go though, more early or more late? If you buy more early and it runs up you have some but if goes down, you have more at the highest price. I wondered about tweaking ladders in proportion to percentage daily drop. Buy more on the days something drops more.

[Lightscribe]

53 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

That would make sense, that said the proposed action is merely to have federal agencies draw up proposals for regulation by October. Algos might go mad off the headline, which is probably the intent of the announcement, but it doesn't seem substantial at this stage.

Yeah, UBI but not if you are working and lots of extras for various needs. So more people getting cash, plus more administrative complexity in administering it. Worst of both worlds - or best of both if you are a lefty civil servant!

That’s why they’ve suggested to call it ‘Guaranteed Decent Income’ - GDI

Amazing foresight these people. Basically we can’t reverse the Bennie tree now otherwise the country will be in uproar with the MSM in full swing (bit different to the covid narrative).

So instead we’ll tiptoe towards UBI whilst employing none of the beneficial aspects of UBI. Only the civil service could come up with that one.

[geordie_lurch]

Lol the 'Anti-work' reddit movement I posted about a few weeks ago imploded after this car crash of an interview

Zerohedge has a great write up of it here: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/cringe-antiwork-reddit-moderator-bombs-fox-news-interview-subreddit-goes-private

[Axeman123]

2 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

That’s why they’ve suggested to call it ‘Guaranteed Decent Income’ - GDI

Amazing foresight these people. Basically we can’t reverse the Bennie tree now otherwise the country will be in uproar with the MSM in full swing (bit different to the covid narrative).

So instead we’ll tiptoe towards UBI whilst employing none of the beneficial aspects of UBI. Only the civil service could come up with that one.

You can imagine the a committee of the big brains of the civil service sat around a table "we like this UBI idea...but...can we avoid layoffs in benefit administration?"

[Axeman123]

Interesting news from Begbies Traynor (corporate restructuring firm) that incresing numbers of companies are financially stressed. Also claims that HMRC are giving forbearance:

“Anecdotally, we are hearing stories about HMRC giving companies two or even three years to pay their tax bills...Extra leniency may not be an official policy, but it sends a signal that officials are trying to help businesses survive – even though it might only be delaying the inevitable.”

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/creditors-head-court-businesses-struggle-082713560.html

[MrXxxx]

44 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Buy more on the days something drops more.

Or buy proportionally more as you move down the ladder?

[Libspero]

5 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Or buy proportionally more as you move down the ladder?

Opportunity cost is a f***er though.

I mean, in theory I agree,  but it means you are forced to sell another investment or relies on you having more cash ready to invest.

This is my position with FRES now..    I put in chunk at 800,   but with the price nearly at 600 now I like the idea of a speculative punt..  except I've already blown my load..  so to speak.

So now I either need to sell another investment,  or wait to accumulate more cash to invest.  In my case I will wait for the latter,  because although I think FRES now has great up-side,  I really don't want too many eggs in one basket.   Which sucks.