Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[MrXxxx]

49 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

IMHO they are priced high, their profits depend on volume of sales

Input costs of materials up by inflation

If IR increase then sale prices will drop or number of sales will drop as less able to support such large mortgage

 

41 minutes ago, Libspero said:

Sort of ish. 

The question is where do you expect prices to go from here?   Bear in mind during the last crash builders went through the floor,  and the spectre of rising interest rates stalk the market for the first time in decades..

I'm not sure if now is the time I'd want to gamble on builders.   Seems like limited upside,  and a lot of potential downside IMHO etc

OK, I appreciate its a gamble [like all shares], but the crux of my thesis is that it doesn't have an up/downside but is simply a hedge; like gold for inflation?....if the bottom falls out of the housing market so the housebuilders stock price falls, but this then means that if you wanted to you could buy a property cheaper. Likewise, if the property market continues to rise the housebuilders shares will do the same, and so your house saving/capital currently invested in the housebuilders shares would keep pace with the housing market?!

This of course assumes a number of things:

1. Your housebuilder doesn't go bankrupt.

2. Availability of market volume has the same relative effect on price i.e. its linear in either direction.

3. New build and second owner prices are correlated in both directions.

4. The government doesn't 'invent' a new scheme for their 'mates'...be interesting to see how the recent proposals regarding home efficiency tax would relate to this.

[nirvana]

25 minutes ago, Libspero said:

Do you pay for a platform or what do you use ?

i use google finance for share watching.....I've got MT4 for indices, oil, metals

and this for seeing how much I've been buttfukked this week lol https://coinmarketcap.com/

[CannonFodder]

34 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

 Anyway keep up at the back, we stopped calling Centrica the 'Scottish play' yesterday when we handed the baton to the F word, as the "Mexican play", at least until somebody top slices it. Then one of your shares can become a play.

The Mariachi share is at minus 8 now

[Sidd]

Gold and Silver seem super pegged to DXY more than anything else. Unfortunately thay DXY just aint rolling over yet.

 

US Inflation data is due on Friday, will be interesting.. anyone who makes huge money in the miners in the coming months deserves it just for having balls of steel and riding these recent lows.

[Harley]

Talking of silver.....Are we getting close?

Gold already did...

Spoiler: Forget the Hunt Bros?

[nirvana]

19 minutes ago, Harley said:

, I use TradingView

i've been meaning to try that for a while......google finance is quick and easy and you can do like a comparison very quickly...

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Ladders caught bottom on most,If someone started and laddered they should be up 52% on BT in less than two years.The institutions where saying sell at the bottom.They will ladder in on the way up.The March crash should of seen people get a few ladders at once as they fell through them that quick. @sancho panza put his coma work up on the sector  when BT hit 95p and his scores said it offered the best risk/reward in the sector,that was a bullseye.

I remember a general discussion about ladders pre-pre-crash being in steps of -7%? It depends how close to the crash you started the ladders. This 2nd thread started June 18. BT 52%? it was well mentioned on here when the price was at least 225. Four -7% ladders from there would be 209, 195, 181 & 168 so money exhausted well before the crash price. I'm not complaining because I don't set ladders. Just checked and my first BT was 168 in Aug 19 but I sold it all at 203 in Oct 19.  I only mention the ladders because I think it was @Bobthebuilderwho said the other day that the ladders had worked well. I thought 'did they?' but didn't have time to respond. They could well have worked well for him due to later timing. Obviously bigger stakes in the crash reduce the average ladder price, say you catch 2 or 3 together but bigger stakes in a crash isn't the plan of ladders, it's just timing, crash timing. Obviously divis help, if they pay them!

[Harley]

6 minutes ago, nirvana said:

i've been meaning to try that for a while......google finance is quick and easy and you can do like a comparison very quickly...

FRES (as an example!), I saw what you did there!   Try it, I can't take you seriously until then!  Of course we'll probably lose you to the social media side of it, at least until they ban you!

[nirvana]

4 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Obviously bigger stakes in the crash reduce the average ladder price, say you catch 2 or 3 together but bigger stakes in a crash isn't the plan of ladders, it's just timing, crash timing. Obviously divis help, if they pay them!

'ladders' work if you know the market will turn at some stage.....it always does as a whole cos of CBs and printing money...

probs is you never know where the bottom is....I tagged BT sub £1 and BP sub £2 but I never held them for long enough 

I forget the golden rules 'cut your losers, run your winners'......I think that applies to both short and long term trading personally YMMV

[nirvana]

2 minutes ago, Harley said:

FRES (as an example!), I saw what you did there!   Try it, I can't take you seriously until then!  Of course we'll probably lose you to the social media side of it, at least until they ban you!

maybe FRES is a good buy down here.........I might get some just for a laugh.....I've got a bit of thing going on with Nasdaq at the mo though lol.......talking of which I need some air...bon courage!

PS I said Silver was going down there earlier and there she is....the charts have it again, Silver ALWAYS LOOKS shit on the charts!!! 

[Harley]

1 minute ago, nirvana said:

'ladders' work if you know the market will turn at some stage.....it always does as a whole cos of CBs and printing money...

probs is you never know where the bottom is....I tagged BT sub £1 and BP sub £2 but I never held them for long enough 

I forget the golden rules 'cut your losers, run your winners'......I think that applies to both short and long term trading personally YMMV

I use technicals for my ladders, buying a weekly low or two and then a monthly, etc.  That's the relatively easy part given I'm in for weeks.  It's the selling that's the killer.  No clear signals there.  Just a question of taking some risk off the table but for the last few months overboughts due a turn just keep getting more overbought!  That may be changing now though!  Normal service to resume?

[Harley]

2 minutes ago, nirvana said:

maybe FRES is a good buy down here.........I might get some just for a laugh.....I've got a bit of thing going on with Nasdaq at the mo though lol.......talking of which I need some air...bon courage!

PS I said Silver was going down there earlier and there she is....the charts have it again, Silver ALWAYS LOOKS shit on the charts!!! 

Cup and handle, the daddy, I tell you, widows and orphans first though!

[nirvana]

Just now, Harley said:

Cup and handle, the daddy, I tell you!

cup of shite I call that one now! mind you I used to call IOT internet of tossers but I quite like it now lol

actually I used to hate MAs too I'm finding some new love on v.short timeframes 

[Harley]

7 minutes ago, nirvana said:

maybe FRES is a good buy down here.........I might get some just for a laugh

It would be rude not to!

2 minutes ago, nirvana said:

....

actually I used to hate MAs too I'm finding some new love on v.short timeframes 

Market sense coming back?

I don't think the cup and handle's your bag!  Too slow glacial!  For old farts only!

[Libspero]

31 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

OK, I appreciate its a gamble [like all shares], but the crux of my thesis is that it doesn't have an up/downside but is simply a hedge; like gold for inflation?.

I'd consider it a very leveraged hedge.

Consider for example,  in 2007 Barratt dropped from 800 to 37.     That's a 95% drop and took 10 years to recover.    Houses are unlikely to follow in lockstep IMHO.

[Bobthebuilder]

12 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I only mention the ladders because I think it was @Bobthebuilderwho said the other day that the ladders had worked well. I thought 'did they?' but didn't have time to respond. They could well have worked well for him due to later timing.

I mentioned ladders a few days ago, responding to a poster talking about drip feeding.

What I tend to do these days is take a bite at a stock I want for a long term hold, then ladder in if it falls into my price range, personally I don't set percentages for ladders. I must admit, I buy 1st ladders in almost everything too early, but I have learned to be patient and wait for the prices to move to me. Most times this can take ages, oilies for example, bought 1st ladder in late March / April, then did not top up until October 2020.

I bought some FRES at 800, happy to wait for sub 600 for another lot, if it doesn't, then so be it.

I got a lot of stocks at great prices during 2020 / 2021, but nowhere near the bottom as many on here did. Even so Repsol up 55%, Shell 65%, I expect some posters are well above those percentages.

Having some skin in the game helps focus the mind, is what I find useful.

[HousePriceMania]

47 minutes ago, nirvana said:

i've been meaning to try that for a while......google finance is quick and easy and you can do like a comparison very quickly...

650 was a bargain...Ohh, maybe not.  I'll do 550 now, I seem to have a talent for getting the price someone else on teh internet tells me is a good price.

[nirvana]

51 minutes ago, Harley said:

Market sense coming back?

I don't think the cup and handle's your bag!  Too slow glacial!  For old farts only!

MAs lag! all indies lag except when plotting an 'absolute level' But on a 1min chart MAs can show a 'trajectory' 

PS nasdaq is going down now lol and my CO detector is about to too if it doesn't shut up 

[Democorruptcy]

30 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I mentioned ladders a few days ago, responding to a poster talking about drip feeding.

What I tend to do these days is take a bite at a stock I want for a long term hold, then ladder in if it falls into my price range, personally I don't set percentages for ladders. I must admit, I buy 1st ladders in almost everything too early, but I have learned to be patient and wait for the prices to move to me. Most times this can take ages, oilies for example, bought 1st ladder in late March / April, then did not top up until October 2020.

I bought some FRES at 800, happy to wait for sub 600 for another lot, if it doesn't, then so be it.

I got a lot of stocks at great prices during 2020 / 2021, but nowhere near the bottom as many on here did. Even so Repsol up 55%, Shell 65%, I expect some posters are well above those percentages.

Having some skin in the game helps focus the mind, is what I find useful.

I think the set percentages are supposed to take the emotion out of it but your more flexible way seems OK. Looks like you timed the oilies well. I agree having some skin in the game can focus the mind. If you then do more studying and learn something, it could help you turn a profit. I suppose a lot of it is to do with risk profile and how much people want to gamble, laddering, drip feeding etc might seem less risky.

[nirvana]

talking of charts etc has anyone used tradeview? https://tradeview.group/home.html

[Bobthebuilder]

5 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I suppose a lot of it is to do with risk profile

Agree with your post 100%.

Bear in mind, I am early 50s, no mortgage, debts or loans and almost retired. May be very different for other posters.

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, nirvana said:

PS nasdaq is going down now lol

nasdaq shit itself 300 pips in about an hour and a half......that's why macro markets are dull and I'm a lunatic.....

Rock on! 

[Libspero]

1 hour ago, nirvana said:

nasdaq shit itself 300 pips in about an hour and a half......that's why macro markets are dull and I'm a lunatic.....

Rock on! 

We're listed on the Nasdaq..  

After the recent dip my boss was convinced his company shares would bounce back after the earnings announcement. 

But they didn't.. dropped about 20% since despite better than forecast numbers. 

Just goes to show how much is already priced into tech stocks,  even on good news,  investors can only see downside 

[Hancock]

11 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Ladders ladders ladders. I’m overweight in FRES, I’ll be offloading allocations at the following ratios 900, 1200, 1500 (should it all go to plan when silver runs, in which I’ll have 50% of my allocation left) I’ll leave the rest and the other cash will be add into my Dosbods staple holdings in any downturn.

I sold my POLY last week after 10% gain, I’ve got more cash aside now, for the results and further dip to rebuy today at 1100 and 1000. Anything below that is a bonus. Those allocations will be staying with me for the duration because of the dividend.

Silver has been manipulated for such a long time, that once it breaks free from the JPM shackles it won’t be coming back down anywhere near to the current prices.

I feel that the S&P500 will drag the FTSE down with it in a crash, simply because the general masses are thick basically (covid has confirmed that) and so many economists have still got the fundamentals wrong of why this is happening. First they said there would be no inflation, negative rates, then no rate rises etc, they really have no understanding of macroeconomic cycles.

They have long forgotten that high dividend stocks are the natural place for the inflation cycle. They will stick to trying to catch a falling knife in the vanguard passives and tech/growth (when approaching stagflation) which will take everything down by equal measure which in turn creates panic and fear.

As DB said, with his example of his mentor just leaving his macroeconomic reports papers on the desk left unread. That’s what we’re dealing with here, most have never experienced an inflationary cycle.

I bought 4 grand of FRES at 657p this morning for my ISA, and bought a grand or 2 last week at 700p for my SIPP, along with 2 grands worth of POLY. Last SIPP money buys 2k in ABRDN at 230p when it goes there!

If the SIPP goes up from £160k to £180K in a short space of time, i might cash it in and sit with it on the sidelines.

But in truth fuck knows what happens over the coming months, so i have now put £18500 of my house money into the markets VODA 3k, FRES 4k,  PMLP £500, ITKY 2.5K, UGP 2.5K, CNA 2.5K, HARL 3.5K (that was a few years ago now worth half that, and will be sold when the gas storage gets the go ahead).

Think i will make that do for now, as prefer to buy when the markets crash ... or maybe buy a house with it.

[Lightscribe]

35 minutes ago, Libspero said:

We're listed on the Nasdaq..  

After the recent dip my boss was convinced his company shares would bounce back after the earnings announcement. 

But they didn't.. dropped about 20% since despite better than forecast numbers. 

Just goes to show how much is already priced into tech stocks,  even on good news,  investors can only see downside 

Sentiment is key, as I’ve already said, I think IMO that has now turned in the tech and FAANGs.

In my industry I have a few I’ll be keeping an eye on for the downturn.