Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Harley said:

Simple moving averages are usually a popular place to start.  @sancho panza might be the go to for this.  The problem with pension funds is whether you have the data for their funds.  Fine in a SIPP, with ETFs, investment trusts, etc.  Or I guess you could use ETFs as a proxy (e.g. Emerging market ETF as a proxy for any in-house fund, etc).

Thanks Harley for the info. on moving averages.  Regarding the 'pension funds' I was referencing, I should have been more clear, they are my personal sipp/isa (ie not employer/company pension funds) and are mostly ram packed with energy/telecoms/PM's/commods stocks that I have bought over the last couple of years.

[AWW]

9 hours ago, Harley said:

IMO you're on the money today!  I think I heard a few months back bank, etc computer systems were upgraded to handle -ve rates.  I've never been so dismissive of bonds, at least not right now, and not for massive appreciation but as much for safety (if indeed an ETF/fund is such).

Handling of negative IRs was done back in 2008.

[Hancock]

What happened with Natural Gas today?

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Hancock said:

What happened with Natural Gas today?

Makes me hope that the drop in fres is a drop before rise. Hope so. Bought at 6.50 then again at 6.32. Fingers crossed.

[Bobthebuilder]

8 minutes ago, Hancock said:

What happened with Natural Gas today?

USA were talking about shutting down the Nordstream pipe if Russia invades Ukraine.

[Hancock]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Makes me hope that the drop in fres is a drop before rise. Hope so. Bought at 6.50 then again at 6.32. Fingers crossed.

Not too worried, more a case of where it'll be in 12/24 months time ... my biggest worry is HARL, i want rid of that piece of crap ASAP. An expensive live and learner.

[Joncrete Cungle]

The mention of housebuilders and shares reminded me of Berkeley Group. I had sort of forgotten about them, was a well run housebuilder and the guy at the top could see the crash coming in 07/08. Might be worth a bit of up to date research if your mad / brave enough to consider housebuilders and they get smacked down in a BK? DYOR and all that jazz.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Bobthebuilder said:

USA were talking about shutting down the Nordstream pipe if Russia invades Ukraine.

Has everyone been issued radios and tuned into the b.s. it will never be shut down I believe. The controllers don’t want to lose control. Imo.

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, Bobthebuilder said:

USA were talking about shutting down the Nordstream pipe if Russia invades Ukraine.

I never knew it ran through America, bit daft to build a pipeline that goes from Russia via America and under the Atlantic to reach Europe, especially when they're right next to mainland Europe.

 

[Chewing Grass]

3 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

USA were talking about shutting down the Nordstream pipe if Russia invades Ukraine.

The USA will promise gas supplies to Europe to go along with its scheme and then fuck the alternative supply up (tankers), the price will go through the roof as Europes Economies are simultaneously trashed.

This is act 2.

[Bobthebuilder]

2 minutes ago, Hancock said:

I never knew it ran through America, bit daft to build a pipeline that goes from Russia via America and under the Atlantic to reach Europe, especially when they're right next to mainland Europe.

 

Sorry for the bbc link.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60151839

[Bobthebuilder]

7 minutes ago, Hancock said:

I never knew it ran through America, bit daft to build a pipeline that goes from Russia via America and under the Atlantic to reach Europe, especially when they're right next to mainland Europe.

 

And while you are doing smileys, can you tell me how you got FRES at 700 last week? I am sure you mean 800.

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

And while you are doing smileys, can you tell me how you got FRES at 700 last week? I am sure you mean 800.

Got mine at just above 650 and 631. Not much more than when I bought at 571. Not bragging. My arse has gone. Or should I say my profit off bp. 

Just now, Phil said:

Got mine at just above 650 and 631. Not much more than when I bought at 571. Not bragging. My arse has gone. Or should I say my profit off bp. 

And more.

[Hancock]

7 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

And while you are doing smileys, can you tell me how you got FRES at 700 last week? I am sure you mean 800.

18/1/22 at 14:32 bought 145 shares at 7.955 for £1153.48 with £15 fees.

Now got £3016 in my SIPP and they're down 13%
Poorer than what i thought. 

 

[Bobthebuilder]

1 minute ago, Hancock said:

18/1/22 at 14:32 bought 145 shares at 7.955 for £1153.48 with £15 fees.

Now got £3016 in my SIPP and they're down 13%
Poorer than what i thought. 

 

Awesome, so almost 8 than 7, well done sir. Next entry for me would be 550.

[Hancock]

Just now, Bobthebuilder said:

Awesome, so almost 8 than 7, well done sir. Next entry for me would be 550.

Yes as per the article i posted the other day i should be patient, as i do think its all going tits up in 2022.

But got a small amount of the house money in the markets now, to hedge my bets.

[Axeman123]

31 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

USA were talking about shutting down the Nordstream pipe if Russia invades Ukraine.

I imagine that sort of threat is better in the the talking about than doing. Hence all the finely calibrated "fidddling" with it's closeness to going online.

27 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

The USA will promise gas supplies to Europe to go along with its scheme and then fuck the alternative supply up (tankers), the price will go through the roof as Europes Economies are simultaneously trashed.

This is act 2.

Like anyone would gamble on a pedalo Joe promise after Afghan. Hence France and Germany wanting to agree a joint stance, and then talk direct with Russia.

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Awesome, so almost 8 than 7, well done sir. Next entry for me would be 550.

I’m feeling unwell with the 5.50 thingy you mentioned.

[Bobthebuilder]

4 minutes ago, Hancock said:

But got a small amount of the house money in the markets now, to hedge my bets.

I have to stand back and give you a round of applause. I look at house prices these days and get confused, how can anyone make this work for them in the current mad market?

I'm happy to punt on a few shares, but house prices? No fu##in chance.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I have to stand back and give you a round of applause. I look at house prices these days and get confused, how can anyone make this work for them in the current mad market?

I'm happy to punt on a few shares, but house prices? No fu##in chance.

I will bite em. Was talking to a PM yesterday, 35, second kid just born, me and a colleague chatting about the 1970 + inflation. I mentioned he had never really lived through a real recession. He mentioned 2008. He was then given the wealth of experience, from my colleague and myself about 1980-84. It was real for me. They have it all to come ( unfortunately). 

[Bobthebuilder]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

He was then given the wealth of experience, from my colleague and myself about 1980-84. It was real for me. They have it all to come ( unfortunately).

Funny you quote 1980-84, bang on target for the start of the disinflation, as discussed in length on this thread.

[Hancock]

19 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I have to stand back and give you a round of applause. I look at house prices these days and get confused, how can anyone make this work for them in the current mad market?

I'm happy to punt on a few shares, but house prices? No fu##in chance.

Ive seen a house that went from £320k to sold, to unsold, then to £340k, if it goes down to £320k im tempted to put an offer in for £300k ... and get a 50k mortgage.

I've lived an unsettled life and whilst i still intend to emigrate, it'd be nice to know if things go tits up that i've somewhere nice to come back to.

I'll give it to my kid when she's needs it, so she can live off the rent or has somewhere to live. An inflated adjusted SIPP, equivalent to 250k that provides divis at 3.5%, a 1 bed flat in central BKK for about 60k, and 1 or 2 weeks work a year ... will see me through until the end of my days!

[Majorpain]

Elon:  I'm bored of making cars now, you know what would be fun?  Tesla Robots!

Market:

Profits are for loooooooosers.

[Transistor Man]

I’m not sure how the saving £30 billion(!) on each new power plant will work.

HPC is planned for grid connection in 2026. I guess that’ll slip a bit. 

Everything else will be 2030s, at best, imo. 

It seems to have gone quiet on Wylfa, mooreside and the others. 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

10 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

I wonder if you're a good or a bad omen.

@Yellow_Reduced_Stickerseems to bring bad luck to me 

 

don't you ever learn?!

 

i told ya, when i post do NOT buy!

 

Now look what ya done to Fresnillo!!!

 

(pic copyright @nirvana)