Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[mh9000]

11 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Are they though, what, after 40% inflation ?

History is littered with fail systems where the people in charge just keep doubling down and printing money.  The FED etc are waiting for an excuse to say...see would told you so inflation is temprary so we wont raise....even if we have 10% inflation.

There is something deeply wrong going on right now,  I think the U.S. has lost it, the question now is, how ****ed is the UK.

March BoE meeting will be telling.  Anything short of a 0.5% rate raise and they are just going to let inflation rip.  If the housing bubble implodes even -5% then I expect these evil ****s to bring in -ve and £2Tn theft this time.

I ordered 50 silver brits last week and I've just unpackaged them and they feel good :-) 

what about Feb 3rd? or just that by March we'll be even further along?

[HousePriceMania]

4 minutes ago, mh9000 said:

what about Feb 3rd? or just that by March we'll be even further along?

Given they raise IRs 0.15% and then inflation still jumped 0.5% youd think they'd have to raise rates, but what, 0.1% ?

Look at Bank Of Canada and The FED, their rates should be 10% now, by the time inflaiton falls, if inflation falls, they'll have pinched 20% of peoples money.

I am more and more convinced all this covid stuff is linked to a bank collapse, either to cover it up or it caused one.

[Harley]

8 minutes ago, Libspero said:

Wow..  what an ass raping on FRES.  Don’t think I ever lost so much on one trade so quickly.  I bought as a “have a bit of gold as a safe hedge against BK type events”..   down 20% in 3 days .

If it goes much lower I’ll be tempted to buy a bit more as a purely speculative punt 

Macro, fundamentals, technicals!

[Harley]

14 hours ago, Sidd said:

Over invested in the miners during the dip last summer and frankly sick of waiting on the sidelines as they keep sliding down, with not enough cash to redeploy (you live and learn). Overall portfolio still up 30%, so not all  bad news but i was up 110% at one point when the miners were at their highest. They seem to be reacting the opposite to everything thats happened in the last 8 months often defying reason. I am getting the urge to slice a lot of it down so I can redeploy elsewhere but knowing the past peak keeps holding me back and I worry they will rocket as soon as i do.

You need a better scout up point to keep you out of trouble!  But when ambushed be careful not to run away from the guns into the prepared killing zone!  Not trading advice but the SOP for some is to run towards the feckers all guns ablazing.  Puts the willies right up 'em!  

 

[Lightscribe]

12 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

I am more and more convinced all this covid stuff is linked to a bank collapse, either to cover it up or it caused one.

Let’s just say for a moment that was indeed the case. What do you think they would prefer, hyperinflation and chaos?

Or the bankruptcy of the masses, asset forfeiture and reliance on the government?

We haven’t had any meaningful rises yet 2.5m are already struggling at the beginning of the inflationary cycle. Even the smallest of rises could tip the whole shebang. 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/25-million-households-cant-pay-bills-cost-living-crisis-worsens/

[CannonFodder]

DXY approaching 97 today (not quite there yet), this will cause grief for the rest of the world who need more dollars to buy resources and pay down dollar denominated debt.

I dont see how they can tighten into this. It will collapse nations across the globe.

I dont see how they can not tighten due to inflation.

Holding was probly the best outcome.

This current situation cant go on, it really cant. 

 

[Sidd]

I have been down 20% and then up 20% in a few weeks with the miners. The swing is incredible. As DB once said when silver runs even the shitty metal plays jump on the train. The miners are the closest thing to Euphoria in the stock market for me (which is why they are also a higher risk the otherway).

 

I keep hearing about this JPM rigging the paper market and FBI investigations. The question is, whats going to stop it?

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Ladders ladders ladders. I’m overweight in FRES, I’ll be offloading allocations at the following ratios 900, 1200, 1500 (should it all go to plan when silver runs, in which I’ll have 50% of my allocation left) I’ll leave the rest and the other cash will be add into my Dosbods staple holdings in any downturn.

I sold my POLY last week after 10% gain, I’ve got more cash aside now, for the results and further dip to rebuy today at 1100 and 1000. Anything below that is a bonus. Those allocations will be staying with me for the duration because of the dividend.

Silver has been manipulated for such a long time, that once it breaks free from the JPM shackles it won’t be coming back down anywhere near to the current prices.

I feel that the S&P500 will drag the FTSE down with it in a crash, simply because the general masses are thick basically (covid has confirmed that) and so many economists have still got the fundamentals wrong of why this is happening. First they said there would be no inflation, negative rates, then no rate rises etc, they really have no understanding of macroeconomic cycles.

They have long forgotten that high dividend stocks are the natural place for the inflation cycle. They will stick to trying to catch a falling knife in the vanguard passives and tech/growth (when approaching stagflation) which will take everything down by equal measure which in turn creates panic and fear.

As DB said, with his example of his mentor just leaving his macroeconomic reports papers on the desk left unread. That’s what we’re dealing with here, most have never experienced an inflationary cycle.

Love it!  Only caveat is the US smart money is currently talking about investing overseas rather than the US markets and we're seeing some strength there (which, given its poor history as pointed out by someone upthread, may include the FTSE!).  I've only got one ladder in FRES though as I sold down some time though.  I'm just waiting for the shake down to finish before buying there and elsewhere.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Bricormortis said:

S and P is likely to dip lower for now and can visit 4100 or lower, with silver is not going anywhere short term. In my opinion.

IMO, for me I'm best to position into metals ahead of time and wait.  I've always been on the back foot for the physical and miners.  Not that now is necessarily the time.  Silver and gold (in USD) have been here before but maybe they have bottomed this time and are going through pullbacks.  A little bit more time will tell.  Then there are the interplays between the physical and miners during and shortly after a general equity dump......

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Ladders ladders ladders. I’m overweight in FRES, I’ll be offloading allocations at the following ratios 900, 1200, 1500 (should it all go to plan when silver runs, in which I’ll have 50% of my allocation left) I’ll leave the rest and the other cash will be add into my Dosbods staple holdings in any downturn.

I sold my POLY last week after 10% gain, I’ve got more cash aside now, for the results and further dip to rebuy today at 1100 and 1000. Anything below that is a bonus. Those allocations will be staying with me for the duration because of the dividend.

Silver has been manipulated for such a long time, that once it breaks free from the JPM shackles it won’t be coming back down anywhere near to the current prices.

I feel that the S&P500 will drag the FTSE down with it in a crash, simply because the general masses are thick basically (covid has confirmed that) and so many economists have still got the fundamentals wrong of why this is happening. First they said there would be no inflation, negative rates, then no rate rises etc, they really have no understanding of macroeconomic cycles.

They have long forgotten that high dividend stocks are the natural place for the inflation cycle. They will stick to trying to catch a falling knife in the vanguard passives and tech/growth (when approaching stagflation) which will take everything down by equal measure which in turn creates panic and fear.

As DB said, with his example of his mentor just leaving his macroeconomic reports papers on the desk left unread. That’s what we’re dealing with here, most have never experienced an inflationary cycle.

Thats right,and we have massive liquidity parked in growth and bonds that is many times bigger than inflation loving sectors.They can sell and invest,or inflation will transfer it anyway.If you wanted to go deep into the macro whats happening is the economy saying tech/growth has too much capital,the older boring backbone sectors havent had enough.I dont think the big institutions have real macro people now,they confuse it with economics,but its not the same,macro is about points on a roadmap where other things are likely to happen,cross market.The simple example is if your work says 6.8% inflation in March,and if you see telcos debts fixed below 3% and you see regulators allowing inflation+ increases then equity is going to see an increase because of higher ROCE flowing to free cash.

 

[HousePriceMania]

22 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Let’s just say for a moment that was indeed the case. What do you think they would prefer, hyperinflation and chaos?

Or the bankruptcy of the masses, asset forfeiture and reliance on the government?

We haven’t had any meaningful rises yet 2.5m are already struggling at the beginning of the inflationary cycle. Even the smallest of rises could tip the whole shebang. 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/25-million-households-cant-pay-bills-cost-living-crisis-worsens/

There seems to be a narrative across a lot of people that rasiing IRs will cause people to struggle.

Raising IRs will cause the rich to lose money, house prices to collapse, a small number of people not to be able to afford the massive mortgage they took out to buy property at the peak of a housing bubble, but for the other 90%, it's a good thing.

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

When the market crashes PMs will run first, and it will run too and be one of the first out the traps.

Interesting you say that because my studies suggest that indeed happens as everyone still stays in equity but moves to this "safer" sector while the physical gets hit to cover equity margin calls (but will that be more BTC this time?).  But if things are bad enough the "committees" approve an asset allocation change and the physical takes over from the equities. Just my hypothesis!

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

The rate rises are always coming!

That article https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcontent%2Fc5a4d9ea-36e0-47ca-8433-f01be19e6980 says Silver is 33% FRES revenues and 15% of POLY

Just had a look to see where POLY comes in behind FRES, number 8 in Kitco's 2020 top 10

Good luck with your plan.

 

 

This used to be funny, now it's a crime.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Are they though, what, after 40% inflation ?

History is littered with fail systems where the people in charge just keep doubling down and printing money.  The FED etc are waiting for an excuse to say...see would told you so inflation is temprary so we wont raise....even if we have 10% inflation.

There is something deeply wrong going on right now,  I think the U.S. has lost it, the question now is, how ****ed is the UK.

March BoE meeting will be telling.  Anything short of a 0.5% rate raise and they are just going to let inflation rip.  If the housing bubble implodes even -5% then I expect these evil ****s to bring in -ve and £2Tn theft this time.

I ordered 50 silver brits last week and I've just unpackaged them and they feel good :-) 

Just the maths will probably have inflation come down over time so they will be able to say that.  I bet that's their hope.  But it may only be a respite.

[MrXxxx]

Not sure if this has been posted:

J.P. Morgan upbeat on BT Group following retail price hike

(Sharecast News) - Analysts at JP Morgan sounded an "optimistic" note on BT Group's recent decision to raise its retail prices by 9%, telling clients that "success" held the potential to support meaningful consensus upgrades.
"Whilst investors seem skeptical of both the appropriateness and sustainability of this move, our analysis offers a more optimistic read, and shows that

success has the potential to support meaningful consensus upgrades," the analysts said in a research report sent to clients.

Worth noting, that price hike came in the wake of 15 years of deflation in the industry.

Furthermore, they estimated that roughly 40% of BT customers were still mid-contract, meaning that they could not churn in order to avoid the increase in prices.

JP Morgan was also expecting a wave of similar announcements out of Vodafone, O2, and TalkTalk in February, while Virgin Media had already said that it would raise prices in March and Sky was expected to do the same in April.

"We estimate average UK household Telco spend may rise £70 per annum - arguably modest when compared to broader inflationary pressures elsewhere," they added.

In their 2022 outlook report they had already reiterated their "positive" stance for European telecoms, while adding BT Group to the investment bank's Analyst Focus List and naming it as their 'top pick'.

This time around they also highlighted the "rich" list of catalysts for BT that they saw ahead, which they expected would confirm that the company was on the cusp of a structural return to growth.

They estimated that would boost the company's equity free cash flow from £1bn at present to £3.5bn long-term.

JP Morgan was at 'overweight' on the stock with a target price of 255.0p.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

If the housing bubble implodes even -5% then I expect these evil ****s to bring in -ve and £2Tn theft this time.

IMO you're on the money today!  I think I heard a few months back bank, etc computer systems were upgraded to handle -ve rates.  I've never been so dismissive of bonds, at least not right now, and not for massive appreciation but as much for safety (if indeed an ETF/fund is such).

[Wellesley]

Have been following this topic for the last year and finally decided to put a toe in the water buying FRES at 655. I have a variety of other investments managed through an advisor as well as properties, ISAs, gold, cash. I sold my business back in 2007 and have sat unemployed and idle since. My fund investments do OK, I've had my origional stake back in profits and they are at a similar level to when they started. But I want to be able to react to a BK event so will dump some cash in ready to take advantage.

Thank you all for your insights and for the education you've given me. I have much to learn but have taken the first step.

[HousePriceMania]

5 minutes ago, Harley said:

Just the maths will probably have inflation come down over time so they will be able to say that.  I bet that's their hope GAME.  But it may only be a respite.

100% this. 

[HousePriceMania]

2 minutes ago, Harley said:

IMO you're on the money today!  I think I heard a few months back bank, etc computer systems were upgraded to handle -ve rates.  I've never been so dismissive of bonds, at least not right now, and not for massive appreciation but as much for safety (if indeed an ETF/fund is such).

There are at least to spivs on the MPC who were wanting -ve rates before they were forced to raise rates, one of them being the main man, the other being some foreign lady who should have no business overseeing the lives of millions of british people.

We never actually go to end the globalist agenda, they've just lied to us that we've left the EU and will sort out the mess.

 

2 minutes ago, Wellesley said:

Have been following this topic for the last year and finally decided to put a toe in the water buying FRES at 655. I have a variety of other investments managed through an advisor as well as properties, ISAs, gold, cash. I sold my business back in 2007 and have sat unemployed and idle since. My fund investments do OK, I've had my origional stake back in profits and they are at a similar level to when they started. But I want to be able to react to a BK event so will dump some cash in ready to take advantage.

Thank you all for your insights and for the education you've given me. I have much to learn but have taken the first step.

I wonder if you're a good or a bad omen.

@Yellow_Reduced_Stickerseems to bring bad luck to me 

[M S E Refugee]

For all of you Fresnillo fans Simply Wall St values them at £12.27.

[Harley]

51 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Let’s just say for a moment that was indeed the case. What do you think they would prefer, hyperinflation and chaos?

Or the bankruptcy of the masses, asset forfeiture and reliance on the government?

We haven’t had any meaningful rises yet 2.5m are already struggling at the beginning of the inflationary cycle. Even the smallest of rises could tip the whole shebang. 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/25-million-households-cant-pay-bills-cost-living-crisis-worsens/

They'll probably introduce price controls and provide subsidised food, etc, all part of the not so creeping state control of our lives.  I mentioned a few years ago my supermarket experience in French Polynesia and see nothing changing to what I said back then.

[Wellesley]

8 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

I wonder if you're a good or a bad omen.

You may rub my lucky onion to get a clearer picture.

[Harley]

10 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

For all of you Fresnillo fans Simply Wall St values them at £12.27.

Simply Wall St has a lot of good features but IMO that's not one of them!

[Democorruptcy]

20 minutes ago, Harley said:

Interesting you say that because my studies suggest that indeed happens as everyone still stays in equity but moves to this "safer" sector while the physical gets hit to cover equity margin calls (but will that be more BTC this time?).  But if things are bad enough the "committees" approve an asset allocation change and the physical takes over from the equities. Just my hypothesis!

In the old days a market crash resulted in lower interest rates/yields, market uncertainty rush to "safe", so PM's should do well just after the margin calls and the dust settles. Now with real yields so negative it seems like the 'rules' have changed? I remember querying in here that rates might not rise as much or as quick as suggested and said in 2011 we had 5.7% RPI and 0.5% base rate. Apparently the USA were going to force us to raise but it doesn't seem like they are very willing! 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

This goes out to all my Russian stocks.  You know who you are.......... 

 

Yay, they heard the love....