Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[AWW]

26 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

As for the financial cost, what price happiness and fulfilment in your job?

There's no decision to make; it's simply not doable.  The starting salary represents £1700 a month take-home. That wouldn't even cover our rent + bills, nevermind food. At the top end, if you stay in the classroom rather than going for promotion to a management role, teachers take home £2.5k a month.  That would cover rent, bills, food and clothes.  No holiday, not even camping in the UK.  No car.  Happiness and fulfilment in work has to play second fiddle to providing for your family.

[wherebee]

15 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Did my UK tax return. Total tax paid for the year: £0.

*I live abroad, but still feels good to not give those twats running the U.K. any of my money

I don't bother doing one any more.  Interest on my nationwide bank account is about 12p.

[wherebee]

3 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Thanks, will save me watching it, my hearts not what it used to be

you been jabbed then?

[planit]

11 hours ago, sancho panza said:

On the matter of resignations,the revolving door is seeing more people exit the Ambulance service this month.Vaxxed leaving due to stress,hatred of nights and unvaxxed leaving for those two reasons plus getting out ahead of the hangmans chop.

Never seen sentiment so negtive and that's in a sector that likes a moan(much like the military).Currently,the cracks are being covered,by replacing 6/10 year experienced staff with trainees fresh from the basic training,but we're starting to push on a string.From what I'm hearing from coppers I meet on shift,there are huge retention issues in places like Birmingham as well.It's not just us.

The bulk of the people defying the vaxx mandate that I know are all 5+ year expereinced but given the youth of the mabulance service ,it's about 10% of the workforce and some are succumbing to the fact that they have bills to pay.

Some leaving the sector all together,others looking for an easier time elsewhere doing days.

If Bj's wish was to break the NHS,then I think the Big Pharma overlords will be pretty happy.

 

I believe the vax mandate will be discarded nearer the time, there is just not the evidence that justifies it any more and Covid is over. 

There is no reason to make war with so many good people and the services are stretched as it is. It would be a huge political own goal to go through with it.

I feel for your situation and I hope it all turns out to be ok.

 

I haven't posted much,there is just so much on this thread to keep up with.

 

ps There is so much negative sentiment around at the moment that I don't see how the market can crash from this sentiment. DH meltup still on I feel.

PM miners seem to have disconnected from the gold price and are cheap, FRES will probably fall further today after an update which doesn't look good due to production delays.

[Chewing Grass]

The Bank sent me a lovely letter telling me that my Mortgage repayment was going up by £1.81p, debt has still never been so cheap.

Unfortunately, eventually it is all consuming whether you indulge in it or not, inflation is just one of its tentacles.

[Majorpain]

8 hours ago, JREWING said:

Live by the sword die by it. All oil and tobacco sold now; sorry DB, but BP at ~398p and BATS over 3100p I ducked out. Gone in balls deep in miner's. Gold and Silver I feel is going on a tear. If it play's out I get my house half price, either here or Oz. If it don't I've still got my health and a boat load of knowledge. More than most at nearly 55. 

You might have got lucky on the timing, Comex is starting to crumble and I've heard plausible rumour's that the best and easiest way to get Bank of America out of their $800bn silver short borrowed off JPM is simply to pull the plug on the Comex.  

The problem is that if whatever is being cooked up with Russia/Ukraine doesn't kill off the current financial system, Gold/silver trading at their fair market price, that accurately reflects past/current/future money printing (with zero short selling/high freq manipulation) will.  Its very much be careful what you wish for IMO, albeit potentially very lucrative!

A world where banks cannot magic up money out of thin air would be a very different one.

[Lightscribe]

9 hours ago, JREWING said:

Live by the sword die by it. All oil and tobacco sold now; sorry DB, but BP at ~398p and BATS over 3100p I ducked out. Gone in balls deep in miner's. Gold and Silver I feel is going on a tear. If it play's out I get my house half price, either here or Oz. If it don't I've still got my health and a boat load of knowledge. More than most at nearly 55. 

Hey stop copying me!  
 

Agreed, it’s a high risk approach at the moment as I’m essentially relying on the BK.

For me with my ISA it was an all or nothing approach and I’m going with my gut. I always said the BK would by by the end of last year, and this seems like the groundwork a few weeks later.

Being 40, I may never get my work pension (state age linked), so my focus is navigating the here and now. If it doesn’t work out so be it.

It’s for my daughters sake really. The world she inherits is inevitably going to be even more fucked up than this one.  This year maybe a once in a lifetime situation to cover enough assets for me so that she’ll be able to navigate whatever the system throws her way.

 

[MrXxxx]

7 hours ago, AWW said:

There's no decision to make; it's simply not doable.  The starting salary represents £1700 a month take-home. That wouldn't even cover our rent + bills, nevermind food. At the top end, if you stay in the classroom rather than going for promotion to a management role, teachers take home £2.5k a month.  That would cover rent, bills, food and clothes.  No holiday, not even camping in the UK.  No car.  Happiness and fulfilment in work has to play second fiddle to providing for your family.

Agree in your case no, but its not impossible as lots of people teach and many have families...as with all things in life its about making choices and 'cutting the cloth to fit', very much as the point I made in my previous post.....if you really want something [within limits i.e. I will never bee the next Simon Cowell "Your through to bootcamp"] you find a way to make it happen.

[Lightscribe]

Last allocation (big chunk) of FRES at 700 all in now. Lets go Brandon

[Democorruptcy]

4 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Last allocation (big chunk) of FRES at 700 all in now. Lets go Brandon

It's one of those dodgy looking HL price refreshes when a share has opened low. You load Fres and see 699 then it refreshes and the quote is something like 709. Makes me suspicious they are doing some sort of back pocket arb.

[Bricormortis]

16 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Last allocation (big chunk) of FRES at 700 all in now. Lets go Brandon

Yeah second ladder in for me.

[Lightscribe]

21 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

It's one of those dodgy looking HL price refreshes when a share has opened low. You load Fres and see 699 then it refreshes and the quote is something like 709. Makes me suspicious they are doing some sort of back pocket arb.

I got a quote of 706 right on the drop so took that.

[Noallegiance]

Jesus. Repsol, BP and Shell on a mission this morning

[MrXxxx]

38 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

It's one of those dodgy looking HL price refreshes when a share has opened low. You load Fres and see 699 then it refreshes and the quote is something like 709. Makes me suspicious they are doing some sort of back pocket arb.

Agree, you always seem to be able to get a quote when the price in 'Meh', but as soon as it looks half decent its a case of "call us"...that or the brokers IT/sites [yes Hl & AJ we are looking at you!] are 'Meh'!

[HousePriceMania]

9 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Agree, you always seem to be able to get a quote when the price in 'Meh', but as soon as it looks half decent its a case of "call us"...that or the brokers IT/sites [yes Hl & AJ we are looking at you!] are 'Meh'!

I'm using Interactive Brokers now and I put a buy order in at 700 to see what happens....

[geordie_lurch]

22 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Jesus. Repsol, BP and Shell on a mission this morning

Yep Shell is nearly up as much as K & S AG this morning which I bought again last week at slightly more than it is today but that's another long term hold and I more than doubled and cashed out my original cash in that

[harp]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

Last allocation (big chunk) of FRES at 700 all in now. Lets go Brandon

Why the big drop today? 

[Democorruptcy]

1 minute ago, harp said:

Why the big drop today? 

Shares in Fresnillo slumped on Wednesday as the gold and silver miner forecast a bigger-than-expected hit to 2022 production due to the Covid Omicron variant and new Mexican labour laws.

Mexico last year changed labour laws to make sure companies hired more local workers. Fresnillo said subsequent contractor uptake had varied, with underground mines, in particular in the Fresnillo District and at Ciénega, more affected due to a higher number of contractors on site resulting in an increased number of staff vacancies and a higher workforce turnover.

"Our 2022 guidance issued is given in the context of the ongoing and new operational challenges worsened by the pandemic (and the resulting impact on workforce availability) and the implementation of the new labour laws which limit use of contractors," the company said in a statement.

"As we reported in our 3Q21 update, we had anticipated a certain level of impact on production as a result of these factors in both 4Q21 and 1Q22, though we are now likely to see a greater impact in the earlier part of the year than previously expected. "

The company forecast silver production in 2022 will be below previous estimates, and that gold output will fall on year.

Attributable silver production was expected to be in the range of 50.5 - 56.5 million ounces, below previous estimates due to a lower volume of ore processed at its Saucito mine due to staff shortages, Covid-19 absenteeism and lower ore grades.

Attributable gold production expected to be in the range of 600 - 650koz, driven mainly by the Noche Buena mine coming to the end of its mine life.

[MrXxxx]

7 minutes ago, harp said:

Why the big drop today? 

 

[Lightscribe]

4 minutes ago, harp said:

Why the big drop today? 

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/amp/news/972176
 

Yup as above. Gold was actually higher than forecast, but one old mine approaching end of life, staff shortages, covid isolations, new mine coming online etc delayed, behind schedule etc. All shorter term stuff, that should resolve itself in time with PMs breaking free later this year.

 

Fresnillo PLC (LSE:FRES) has lost its shine after the precious metals miner missed silver production targets and warned 2022 would be lower than last year.

Silver production of 53.1mln ounces in 2021 was below expectations of 53.5mln-59.5mln although gold production of 751,200 ounces, while down 2.4% on 2020, was ahead of guidance of 675,000 to 725,000 ounces.

But with the pandemic hitting its workforce and new labour laws in Mexico limiting the use of contractors, it forecast lower production this year of 50.5mln to 56.5mln ounces of silver and 600,000 to 650,000 ounces of gold.

It said: "We had anticipated a certain level of impact on production as a result of these factors in both the fourth quarter of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022, though we are now likely to see a greater impact in the earlier part of the year than previously expected."

Its shares have dropped 8.99% to 732.6p.

 

 

 

[MrXxxx]

2 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/amp/news/972176
 

Yup as above. Gold was actually higher than forecast, but one old mine approaching end of life, staff shortages, covid isolations, new mine coming online etc delayed, behind schedule etc. All shorter term stuff, that should resolve itself in time with PMs breaking free later this year.

 

Fresnillo PLC (LSE:FRES) has lost its shine after the precious metals miner missed silver production targets and warned 2022 would be lower than last year.

Silver production of 53.1mln ounces in 2021 was below expectations of 53.5mln-59.5mln although gold production of 751,200 ounces, while down 2.4% on 2020, was ahead of guidance of 675,000 to 725,000 ounces.

But with the pandemic hitting its workforce and new labour laws in Mexico limiting the use of contractors, it forecast lower production this year of 50.5mln to 56.5mln ounces of silver and 600,000 to 650,000 ounces of gold.

It said: "We had anticipated a certain level of impact on production as a result of these factors in both the fourth quarter of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022, though we are now likely to see a greater impact in the earlier part of the year than previously expected."

Its shares have dropped 8.99% to 732.6p.

 

 

 

The charts were showing a downward trajectory anyway, but todays statement 'poured petrol on the fire'! :-)))

[Lightscribe]

12 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

The charts were showing a downward trajectory anyway, but todays statement 'poured petrol on the fire'! :-)))

My average would now be well into the 700’s. It’s enabled me to average down, sell back allocations up when reaching 900+ etc. This is a long term hold for me (maybe not quite at the weight I am currently) but silver will run. It’s not if, but when.

FRES will be well positioned as a springboard due to its size and location (probably one of the most politically safe in the industry).

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, planit said:

ps There is so much negative sentiment around at the moment that I don't see how the market can crash from this sentiment. DH meltup still on I feel.

PM miners seem to have disconnected from the gold price and are cheap, FRES will probably fall further today after an update which doesn't look good due to production delays.

I'm with you there on the DH melt up.I remember Mish SHedlock saying years back that markets historically rarely crash off bad news but rather news not being as good as they'd like.

There is a structural set up for a BK-(I define as a BIG deflationary wave in credit markets).The set up is horrendous.

Property markets are elevated at record levels cvompared to local salaries,banks are leveraged on that leverage to the point that some are carrying Dowd Buckner ratios of 50/1++ and that's before they start taking losses.

Stock market are elevated on the back -up until now- of overhyped property/service sector stocks in the UK and overhyped Big Tech in the US.Market breadth has been deteriorating for some time but as long as the headline figures are up,it's up.

Govt debt markets aren't pricing in the reality of inflation rates across the Western world and that's allowing for the fact that these inflation rates are statistically more likely to understate the true position than not TM Shaun Richards

Corporate debt markets are similarly pricing negative real yields out to ten years in the US junk bond market.

When this sells off it will be brutal.This recent move up in oil confirms to me that we're getting close now and that it's time for me to start working out what we'll sell and how we'll trade the downturn (either hedge oilies/goldies with puts or try and sell & buy back,Telecoms and remaining potash we'll jsut hold).

 

I'm looking to leverage into some of the goldies with options,the gold price will start moving soon for a few reasons I think which will again be a confirmation that the sh1t is haeding for the fan sometime in Q3

[Loki]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

Jesus. Repsol, BP and Shell on a mission this morning

Tempted to topslice my BP...

[JREWING]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Last allocation (big chunk) of FRES at 700 all in now. Lets go Brandon

I held off going into Fres earlier this week as you could see the trend was downwards but did not have the nerve to sell my current holdings.

I've not bought yet this morning as the FOMC might take her lower. I agree though 700p is a great long hold. I'd like 650p but we'll have to see.

It's Poly tomorrow, would love to see her drop the same, 1000p would be great for an average down. At times like today it pays to be 50% cash.