Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Calcutta]

45 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

 

 

These fucking clowns 🤦🤦🤦

Can't wait till I show the kids our new house and tell them a funny little man called Ed Milliband bought it for us. Might even put a picture of him up in the shitter. Cheers Ed! 

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

What i do know is investing is harder now than its ever been,not so much the companies,but governments deciding whats good,whats bad etc.Very worrying for the kids and grandkids,

Maybe thats what i'm getting at, making it too much hassle for the reward, and the reward for us amateurs can very possibly be a loss.

I earned enough money to pay the rent for 1 year by being here for 10 days, but its possibly going to be eaten up by "investing" aka "gambling".

Get a house, and work just enough to keep the mind ticking over, is the way forward ... and stick whats left in some simple ETF that hopefully tracks inflation over a 10 year timeline.

If a March 2020 BK happens in the meantime, then the strategy may change again!

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, Harley said:

joe public are the patsies

Whatever happens you can 'take that to the bank' 

[HousePriceMania]

16 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

True,but contrarians tend to start their buys in areas already down by a lot.I worked out my ladders during the Covid crash and it turned out when/if stocks were down 70% from highs i would be down around 15% before divs.As @Harley always warns ,falls dont concern me,but outright theft does.I have little exposure to Russia,BP the main one,but they have removed one of the best locations for hedging inflation away from everyone.Worse people who positioned there for it get slammed.Is this currency control on Russia,or on us ?.Is this all to ensure everyone falls into line of the green agenda?.

What i do know is investing is harder now than its ever been,not so much the companies,but governments deciding whats good,whats bad etc.Very worrying for the kids and grandkids,

All roads lead to the de regulated bankers 

Their system has been broken since 2007, we all know that. 

They are losing control and throwing everything at keeping it going. Maybe pootin knows this is a great time to bring the west down, maybe they're all banker puppets, though pootin seems to be his own man. 

This is not a normal situation, has not been for some time. 

If you're not worried you're not stood back far enough looking at this shit show, i mean on what fucking planet should rates be -0.5% to 0.5% with inflation at 10%

I've hedged against inflation best I can, currently 10% in commodity shares, 5% in property, 20% in index linked bonds, 10% in pensions, 5% in pms. Have offered on a ski apartment, that's another 10% going, that leaves 40% in cash this year which is all going into 1 or 2 houses in the uk, most likely with a 40% mortgage and a Scottish forest

A 50% drop in shares won't kill me but 50% inflation will. 

Its time to stop hoping for the best and prepare for the worst 

[Hancock]

From 2015-

https://www.cnbc.com/2015/02/03/putin-on-track-to-nationalize-companies-expert.html

Russia is on a path to greater nationalization of private business, and the country has become a “value trap,” Hermitage Capital Management CEO William Browder told CNBC on Tuesday.

As a result, there is little value to be found in the country for investors, the outspoken critic of President Vladimir Putin said in a CNBC “Squawk Box” interview.

“It’s a value trap right now. Low price-to-earnings ratio only helps you if you get those earnings in the end,” Browder said. “None of that money is going to come to you. You’re either going to lose it from capital controls, from expropriation, or from fraud.”

Russia is facing its worst currency crisis since 1998, and manufacturing has fallen to the lowest level in 5½ years.

Read More

In the near term, Browder expects Russia to impose currency and capital controls to stem the ruble’s decline, a drawdown in foreign reserves and the flight of cash out of the country. “Every day that they say there’s not going to be capital controls is one day closer to them imposing capital controls,” he said.

Those capital controls will only spur Russians to send more money abroad, he added. This will in turn cause Putin, with no money left in the country, to find ways of expropriating and nationalizing more companies.

“Some investors say, ‘Bill, you made your money in Russia when it was cheap,’ and I’m saying now, ‘It’s cheap for a very good reason,’” he said.

Browder is the author of “Red Notice: A True Story of High Finance, Murder and One Man’s Fight for Justice.” The book recounts his experience doing business in Russia, his battles with Putin and the death of Browder’s imprisoned colleague Sergei Magnitsky. He founded the Hermitage Fund in Moscow in 1996, and it grew to become the largest investment fund in the country.

Whether conditions continue to deteriorate in Russia depends largely on whether the price of oil remains low, he said. The Russian government relies heavily on oil exports from state-owned firms to underwrite spending.

The cost of crude has fallen as much as 60 percent in the last seven months, but bounced about 11 percent during the last two trading sessions.

Economic conditions are also tied to the situation in Ukraine, where Putin has backed rebels in eastern Ukraine. The United States and Europe have imposed escalating sanctions on Russia related to its role in the conflict.

Read More Sanctions on Russia are ‘economic war’

Brower also sees a risk of Russia pitting European Union members against one another at a time when the monetary union is facing disagreements over the terms of bailout packages and austerity measures dating to the financial crisis.

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told CNBC that Russia would consider giving financial help to debt-ridden Greece just days after the new anti-austerity Greek government questioned further European Union sanctions against Russia.

“Thankfully at least at this stage in the game, Greece has got enough sense not to go along with that plan,” Brower said.

[CannonFodder]

Javier has an interesting take. EU and US want energy payments to continue but banks going further as not wanting the risk of distinguishing between energy and non energy on themselves.

I.ve been reading lots of sites on the war and the bbc is making a big thing of russian losses but the russians are still advancing fast. Its whether things will calm done quickly once shooting stops.

 

[HousePriceMania]

8 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Maybe thats what i'm getting at, making it too much hassle for the reward, and the reward for us amateurs can very possibly be a loss.

 

Nothing makes sense... Big losses, share price goes up, war, share prices go up, oompah lumpah voted in as us president, shares go up, global economic pandemic collapse, share prices go up. 

You seemingly can't loose, got to wonder whats the payback for all this free money 

[AWW]

28 minutes ago, Errol said:

Please note:

 

 

Slightly confusing tweet, given that you bid to buy and offer to sell - are they going to prevent foreigners buying or selling Russian securities?

[leonardratso]

2 minutes ago, AWW said:

Slightly confusing tweet, given that you bid to buy and offer to sell - are they going to prevent foreigners buying or selling Russian securities?

id say they are using BIDs there as attempts, rather than BID/OFFER in the sharedealing sense, who in their right mind would be buying this shit in this situation?

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Nothing makes sense... Big losses, share price goes up, war, share prices go up, oompah lumpah voted in as us president, shares go up, global economic pandemic collapse, share prices go up. 

You seemingly can't loose, got to wonder whats the payback for all this free money 

Also...

Nothing makes sense... Big losses, gold price goes down, war, gold price goes down, oompah lumpah voted in as us president, gold price goes down, global economic pandemic collapse, gold price goes down. 

[Metalheadz]

I think a lot of people are going to be hurt buying this Russia "dip". The ruble could be toilet paper in a few weeks. POLY is in a downtrend since Sep 2020 I wouldn't touch it with a ten foot clown pole.

For every one of these Russian companies getting jammed up with sanctions there are 5 companies elsewhere that will directly benefit.

I'm buying tankers, fertiliser, nickel, aluminium co's and sleeping like a baby.

[Hancock]

Slightly more of a sane opening than i thought

[leonardratso]

crudes up 7%

[Plan-b]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

Also...

Nothing makes sense... Big losses, gold price goes down, war, gold price goes down, oompah lumpah voted in as us president, gold price goes down, global economic pandemic collapse, gold price goes down. 

The fact it's controlled so tightly tells you what it really is, a hedge against central banks excesses and hubris and their Kryptonite. It will still be there at the end.

[HousePriceMania]

3 minutes ago, Loki said:

Also...

Nothing makes sense... Big losses, gold price goes down, war, gold price goes down, oompah lumpah voted in as us president, gold price goes down, global economic pandemic collapse, gold price goes down. 

100% this ^^^^

 

its like some out of control psychopathic bankers are buying up everything, governments included, with magicked up cash 😂😂😂

[Harley]

32 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

What i do know is investing is harder now than its ever been,not so much the companies,but governments deciding whats good,whats bad etc.Very worrying for the kids and grandkids,

Russel Napier.

[HousePriceMania]

6 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

crudes up 7%

Fuck. 

Sorry for being so crude 

[Errol]

6 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

The fact it's controlled so tightly tells you what it really is, a hedge against central banks excesses and hubris and their Kryptonite. It will still be there at the end.

It will be controlled until the day it isn't.

When that day comes the gold you hold will be the only gold you'll ever get. 

[HousePriceMania]

8 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

crudes up 7%

So in current manipulated market that'll equate to 10% drop in bt share prices 😜

[wherebee]

1 minute ago, Cattle Prod said:

Look at it this way, we all need Russian hydrocarbons. Without their oil, the world goes into a ~5mbpd deficit, inventories dissapear in months, world goes into a depression, oil is $300+ a barrel. Gas wise, Europe freezes. Those hydrocarbons have to enter the system, there is no other source to replace them. Even if all sold to China, leaving other supplies for us. 

So Putin can say I'll sell you 100 barrels of oil for an oz of gold. Nothing stopping this. It means that oil in dollar terms is suddenly $20, or gold is $10,000. Buyers will scramble to find gold to buy this cheap oil, right? And more importantly, they've already been doing so while it was cheap (central banks have). Physical gold gets drained from the west and goes to Russia. Petrodollar system smashed.

I think elaborate deal. You can't print oil, and I don't think the western politicians get this yet. I've seen too many "we should frack the UK" comments for my liking, no, you can't. It's all a bit bombastic and I have an uneasy feeling that the same pro lockdown crowd are the ones now pro Ukraine Russia bad tell Saudi to open de taps frack Yorkshire and just put solar panels on every roof. This is far from being played out. 

Indeed.

If Putin blows the gold/oil offer out on the table, we'll all know that the goal is NOT the Ukraine, but the US dollar as reserve currency.

If he does, whoooah momma.  Then you'll see the gloves come off from the US deep state.

[DurhamBorn]

14 minutes ago, Metalheadz said:

I think a lot of people are going to be hurt buying this Russia "dip". The ruble could be toilet paper in a few weeks. POLY is in a downtrend since Sep 2020 I wouldn't touch it with a ten foot clown pole.

For every one of these Russian companies getting jammed up with sanctions there are 5 companies elsewhere that will directly benefit.

I'm buying tankers, fertiliser, nickel, aluminium co's and sleeping like a baby.

Buried in the German thing on defence spending was building more LNG terminals ,gas isnt in the right places until it is shipped there.

[HousePriceMania]

4 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Indeed.

If Putin blows the gold/oil offer out on the table, we'll all know that the goal is NOT the Ukraine, but the US dollar as reserve currency.

If he does, whoooah momma.  Then you'll see the gloves come off from the US deep state.

Bit of a tangent post, but have a read on Putin from the eyes of a Irish/scot 

 

https://philmacgiollabhain.ie/2022/02/25/how-i-learned-to-be-ukrainian-in-a-mayo-hedge-school/

 

Interesting perspective.  Putin linked to deutche bank 

 

 

 

[Metalheadz]

6 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Buried in the German thing on defence spending was building more LNG terminals ,gas isnt in the right places until it is shipped there.

Germany is having a "Road To Damascus" weekend...

Germany mulls extending nuclear plants' life-span - economy minister

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-mulls-extending-nuclear-plants-life-span-economy-minister-2022-02-27/

Germany is weighing whether to extend the life-span of its remaining nuclear power plants as a way to secure the country's energy supply in the face of uncertainty over Russian gas supplies, the country's economy minister said.

[HousePriceMania]

Putin has the west over an oil barrel. 

 

Who'll blink first, psycho Russian ex kgb leader or fat boris of the uturn tory party? 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

If we invade France can we get out of the euro vision too? 

Belgium would be much easier.