Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[leonardratso]

23 minutes ago, JMD said:

Their example of bribing customers with toy gifts reminded me of the Compare The Market ads. Will they I wonder also ban adverts doing that, especially ones using puppets with Russian accents... How very insensitive under current times?!

nearly;

https://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2022-03-01/not-so-simples-russian-meerkats-aleksandr-and-sergei-pulled-from-news-ads

Not quite the toys themselves, but the ad campaign i suppose, maybe they'll make a comeback with ukranian accents, is there much difference?

[HousePriceMania]

6 hours ago, Pip321 said:

The distances are unimaginable.

Travelling at the balmy fast speed of light ie that’s 7 times round the world in one second….it takes 9 minutes to reach the Sun.

It takes about 5.5 hours at light speed to reach Pluto ie the edge of the ‘simple’ solar system. So several hours but Voyager 1 actually took 35 years and V2 around 41 years….just to cover a few hours light speed  

Now for the mind fuck…to ‘hop’ to the next star isn’t hours but it is then 4.5 years away at light speed…tens of thousands of years away for Voyager. That’s a lot of space.

To leave our little galaxy would take 100,000 years (at light speed) and once we get out of the local cluster of galaxies it’s a long long ride before we see another galaxy…..and there are billions of galaxies.

Puts into context having to walk a mile into town when the car breaks down.

As we are off thread weekend (I didn’t take much prompting)…..what I love about physical science is it doesn’t really provide answers just more and more questions. Our perception using our senses and equipment is quite limited and I like Brian Cox’s attitude which is one of awe (the awe of nature) rather than a smug scientist who think maths answers any of the real questions.

Now if you lot can get that context and sell me some BPs shares cheap on Monday I would be most grateful.😉

Youve not factored in the slowing of time at factor's of light speed, iirc, and I probably don't, if you can get to something like 20% lightspeed the journey to the nearest star is about 1 year, or at least significant reduced. 

[Don Coglione]

4 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

From the Suez Crisis up until Thatcher there was a pervasive narrative within our ruling class that the decline of the UK was innevitable, and that a managed decline was the only/best strategy to mitigate this. This narrative was proven false, and was presumably just a cover for surrender to either the US or Russia (depending on political alignment). History will judge the current shite the same way IMO.

Not sure I agree with that; the fall of the British Empire was always going to hurt the mother country. Then we discovered North Sea oil - hurrah, we are saved! Oh, no, we pissed that up the wall too and it's all-but run out, there will be no encore.

The above is clearly UK-specific, the life-turning-to-shit-real-soon is global.

[Heart's Ease]

Chatting with a pal on a very smallholding earlier.   Feed for chickens up by a third. 50p for each shorn sheep fleece. Heating oil at 95p/l. Government restrictions phasing out lead airgun pellets so price up from £8 to £20 a tin.

 

[Don Coglione]

Just now, Heart's Ease said:

Chatting with a pal on a very smallholding earlier.   Feed for chickens up by a third. 50p for each shorn sheep fleece. Heating oil at 95p. Government restrictions phasing out lead airgun pellets so price up from £8 to £20 a tin.

 

Fuck me, they were a quid a tin when I were a nipper!

50p for a fleece can't be right?

[DoINeedOne]

25 minutes ago, JMD said:

Their example of bribing customers with toy gifts reminded me of the Compare The Market ads. Will they I wonder also ban adverts doing that, especially ones using puppets with Russian accents... How very insensitive under current times?!

 

3 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

nearly;

https://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2022-03-01/not-so-simples-russian-meerkats-aleksandr-and-sergei-pulled-from-news-ads

 

Broadcasts of adverts featuring Russian meerkat Aleksandr Orlov and his loyal companion Sergei will be restricted on television, because of concerns about sensitivities surrounding the invasion of Ukraine

[Axeman123]

4 minutes ago, Don Coglione said:

Not sure I agree with that; the fall of the British Empire was always going to hurt the mother country. Then we discovered North Sea oil - hurrah, we are saved! Oh, no, we pissed that up the wall too and it's all-but run out, there will be no encore.

The above is clearly UK-specific, the life-turning-to-shit-real-soon is global.

I don't dispute that. I am just pointing out that the narrative of managed decline would have implied us becoming "belgian" or whatever, with a token defence force and no real influence. The Thatcher alternative may well have relied on: fluke oilfields, financial deregulation that got us in todays mess, and a global web of tax havens etc; but at least it involved doing something.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

4 hours ago, THE SOUP DRAGON said:

Here is a sobering thought regarding workplace pensions. Announcement made regarding a change in the default option and how it is now going to be more ESG focused. No need for any action to be taken they'll handle the change.

Now this wasn't a surprise based on what I have learnt here, what was shocking though was the information given out on how many people stick with the default option and change nothing. 

99% do nothing.

Most people are petrified of investments, especially pensions. They have no understanding of them and believe it is all beyond them. Not worth the effort to even try. Almost fatalistic. Might as well be witchcraft in their eyes.

[Spiney Norman]

19 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Most people are petrified of investments, especially pensions. They have no understanding of them and believe it is all beyond them. Not worth the effort to even try. Almost fatalistic. Might as well be witchcraft in their eyes.

The above is true.

Amongst my collegues there is a level of both ignorance and apathy that is truly shocking, and they are proffesional engineers. God only knows how bad the general public are.

[The Bear of Doom]

39 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

 

Broadcasts of adverts featuring Russian meerkat Aleksandr Orlov and his loyal companion Sergei will be restricted on television, because of concerns about sensitivities surrounding the invasion of Ukraine

Any relation to Dimitry Orlov? 

On an investment note, the Ad Agency that came up with that concept must have made a fortune!

[Joncrete Cungle]

1 hour ago, Don Coglione said:

Fuck me, they were a quid a tin when I were a nipper!

50p for a fleece can't be right?

I still have tins I paid £3:50 for but am running low, another thing I need to stock back up on that has gone up in price a lot.

50p per fleece sounds about right, it costs more per fleece to get a shearing gang in to shear the sheep. Wool has been burned / put in a muck heap before as the cost and time in preparing it and taking it to a buyer far outweighed the price paid per fleece.

 

[Joncrete Cungle]

12 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Bloody hell, what happened in 2004/2005?! 

Credit expansion, overseas buyers, MEW, lifestyle / horsey buyers, millionaire, billionaires and oligarchs etc buying a slice of inheritance tax avoidance and sheltering money / assets from their native governments. Oh and claiming the farming subs 'fraudulently' in the process.

From memory the top 10 recipients of EU agricultural subs in the UK wouldn't know the arse end of a cow from a sheep and have never done a day's farming in their lives. Queen and Charlie boy, James Dyson, RSPB etc.

 

 

[Castlevania]

2 hours ago, Don Coglione said:

Is the entire climate agenda arse-backwards? Officially, it's "fossil fuels are destroying the planet, we must act to save it", but what if it's really "oh shit, the fossil fuels are running out and life is about to get really, really shit, so we need to get people softened up for what's coming, we'll dress it up as saving the planet"?

This is my view. I have no idea whether increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is a bad thing (I’d expect plants to thrive from higher levels) but we realistically do need to reduce the use of oil and gas simply because it’s not finite.

[MrXxxx]

4 hours ago, JMD said:

Don't they now become PM?!

No, to become PM you need to get a First in a subject [Classics] even less relevant to your job role than Media studies! :-)

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Don Coglione said:

Is the entire climate agenda arse-backwards? Officially, it's "fossil fuels are destroying the planet, we must act to save it", but what if it's really "oh shit, the fossil fuels are running out and life is about to get really, really shit, so we need to get people softened up for what's coming, we'll dress it up as saving the planet"?

This ^ .Its very likely thats why.I dont see many trees going up on all the grouse moors.I think the whole thing is about getting the plebs to consume less oil and gas so it lasts longer for the rich.They also know they need 40 to 50 years for renewables.If they want to save the planet they could start by planting trees etc into all these huge areas of council owned grass,yet very little happens.

[MrXxxx]

On 20/05/2022 at 21:27, DurhamBorn said:

London? whats wrong with Newcastle,2hrs 40 from Kings Cross,£3.60 a pint of Stella and better night life than London ,oh and i get free train travel,my dad has a British Rail priv card,i do come from the town who invented trains 

Err, the women?...

...assuming of course 'that is the way you swing' as we say 'Down South' :-)

[Plan-b]

6 hours ago, THE SOUP DRAGON said:

Here is a sobering thought regarding workplace pensions. Announcement made regarding a change in the default option and how it is now going to be more ESG focused. No need for any action to be taken they'll handle the change.

Now this wasn't a surprise based on what I have learnt here, what was shocking though was the information given out on how many people stick with the default option and change nothing. 

99% do nothing.

So I've reviewed my poxy Nest company pension choices, I'm very fickle so guess what I went with?

Theres 5 choices so vote accordingly  

[MrXxxx]

15 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

For those saying Newcastle is a shit hole and saying come to stabby stabby London are you mental There's much lower chance of any bother up here when some of you shandy drinkers get a bit shouty

Must admit I have found Northerners [generally] are better at 'Holding their drink' than Southerners, and if/one gets a bit 'shouty'/'lairy' their mates normally 'step in', tell him he is being an ar$e, and then take the pi$$ out of him until he calms down a bit. :-)

[Don Coglione]

3 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Must admit I have found Northerners [generally] are better at 'Holding their drink' than Southerners, and if/one gets a bit 'shouty'/lary their mates normally 'step in', tell him he is being an ar$e, and then take the pi$$ out of him until he calms down a bit. :-)

Newcastle is a cracking town for a night/weekend.

[MrXxxx]

10 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Haha I look forward to it Someone needs to get hold of some yellow reduced stickers so we can use them as name tags

No, they would recognize the Dosbods party group by the 'squeeking from their ar$e$'....although the Bar manager might get confused and keep on oiling the front door!

[leonardratso]

16 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

So I've reviewed my poxy Nest company pension choices, I'm very fickle so guess what I went with?

err, sharia?

[JMD]

On 20/05/2022 at 11:14, Noallegiance said:

It's almost as though shutting the economy but giving businesses money was another can-kicking exercise.......

I agree, but those interventions could only ever have been short term and tactical can-kicking until 'something' more structural turned up... And then Ukraine happened - voila!! (Hence my earlier post describing my fears for the worst, but really hope I'm wrong, I had 2030 penciled before things turned really sour)

[Pip321]

2 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Err, the women?...

...assuming of course 'that is the way you swing' as we say 'Down South' :-)

For some reason my Avatar is strangely drawn to these beauties. I think I may have ‘met’ them in the past……’tits oot for the lads’.   

[JMD]

On 20/05/2022 at 15:37, Yadda yadda yadda said:

How many people are that dumb? The people I know that are on benefits are intelligent. They just found themselves in the situation where benefits paid better than working because they were mums at a young age. Although I suppose it is a small and biased sample as I wouldn't interact with them if they were thick. Or ugly.

About 15% of people have IQ below 85 and this is the approx level (it varies from year to year depending on moving percentile levels) that US military deny applications. Of course IQ, rather like race, is a social construct, so across most of the West it has become a metric that dare not speak it name... Even James Watson, he of the helix, got into very hot water over these things.

[JMD]

On 20/05/2022 at 17:39, Axeman123 said:

Cousin Bum couldn't get anywhere in showbiz mind...

...perhaps so, but all soon to change once the recently announced Oscar diversity rules are implemented.