Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Harley]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Lots of areas are interesting again

My last screen for potential momentum buys threw up over 900 international stocks.  Orders of magnitude compared to the week before.  Sure, plenty of duds but that's still telling.  That said, adding some basic fundamental criteria like debt to equity below 100%(!) brought that down to under 100.  That's where we still are.  It'll be a bloodbath if the markets ever started caring about such things. 

Maybe it's just a dead cat bounce (but then this is on monthly data).  Shame as I've already sold down most positions.  Just exiting some is left as an option.

[Harley]

10 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

😂

 

As ever, it's each to his own.

 

My point is that it's really not worth sinking into a depression. There's nothing wrong with buy and hold, just check in every now and then and make sure nothings gone insane, in which case you may want to top slice.

 

But fixating on where you're at day by day is just a recipe for misery in my opinion.

The jury is still out whether my interventions add value to my portfolio (and this thread!).  50:50 at best!

[Harley]

7 hours ago, Ash4781b said:

though price not near the pandemic lows

Now that's a thought.  Imagine sentiment when/if prices fall below the pandemic lows!  Nowhere to hide, it'll be right there right between the eyes.

[Harley]

7 hours ago, Errol said:

What fund do people on here buy to balance out an otherwise higher risk portfolio?

I like the yield on the UTIP ETF (others available)  Only worry is I can't understand why it's so high and momentum has been dead since 2018.  Not understanding something usually ends badly for me!  

On bonds generally, some talk out there about a bottom (maybe just a bounce) but I'm not seeing it yet, other than a flash in the daily data.

PS:. Thinking about it some more, hard to materially reduce deviation in an everything bubble, unless you laterally step outside that bubble.  Burning house, blah, blah. 

[Harley]

Several of this week's podcasters talking about a long (say 18m) stairstepping down market.  That's the worst kind as your pot slowly sinks as does your mind.  Maybe some here suffering a relentless few percent here and there are just a little ahead.  No-one seems much scared of crashes these days.  Maybe a long slow grind of attrition is needed and Mr Market knows how to cause maximum hurt to Pavlovs dogs!

 

[Pip321]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Nice one ta.  You mentioned ebbs and flows and for that you can't beat a momentum indicator.  Put that with a price chart and a price indicator like MACD or just moving averages and I find that's my holy trinity.

Yep, the likes of RIO are part of my inner sanctum.  Maybe I should treat all stocks as a trade and sell out on a top but I hold a bit back on these so they stay on my radar for when they turn up.  Like your first ladder (my perpetual ladder).

Price points are fine, just usually associated with supports and resistances and maybe patterns and after all, a limit order requires a price!

I use monthly charts because yes, things are wild.  They cut out the noise at the cost of being in and out a bit later.  But then less false ins and outs so maybe it's all the same in a wash.

I think the last 3/4 months what I have learnt is whilst I am ‘okay’ at trading (ie not really shite but couldn’t make a living from it) but either way it’s incredibly unsatisfying. If you lose you aren’t happy and if you win and sell…you then are unhappy because you could have made another 10% by hanging on a week. It’s okay for fun but it’s not what I want long term.

Once the BK occurs (or otherwise) and we are in a more predictable pattern again…I will be a lot happier to start investing proper based on macros and fundamental value investing. Then I can distribute some cash into tangible business assets (ie some of those 20 stocks) and then just check in every 2/3 weeks. 

I wouldn’t change your approach…it’s better than mine. The problem with selling at the top is you sell Rio at 6200 and you know it will go to 8000😆

Indeed my approach v’s yours is I am 125cc scooter v your Harley 😆

[Harley]

5 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

So silver has been absolute dog shit as an inflation hedge since then. Interesting.

Yes.  The only thing I can say in it's defence is it's not a linear metal/investment.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, BWW said:

Not sure if you combine your TA with ladders.

For core investments, yes.  Both up and down.

3 hours ago, BWW said:

But I disagree that it's the only way and everything else is the wrong way.

Now where did I say that? 

Lots more to discuss there, too much.

Best I stop posting if that's how people read my shite while others (it seems as the newts are on ignore) shite post.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

13 hours ago, stoobs said:

Have you just published triangulation coordinates to your house on a thread frequented exclusively by self-confessed odd-bods and nut-jobs?

You don't use your own postcode for anything online do you? Best to use the postcode of someone you don't much like.

Edit: not you but @Funn3r

[The Grey Man]

3 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

You don't use your own postcode for anything online do you? Best to use the postcode of someone you don't much like.

I may have used that technique during 2020 summer.

The camp sites needed a post code and Greater Manchester was targetted by a few politicos for extra lockdown.

 

[Lightscribe]

https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/russia-and-china-are-brewing-up-a-challenge-to-dollar-dominance-by-creating-a-new-reserve-currency/amp_articleshow/92437095.cms
 

If this ever materialises, that’s when PMs run to the moon.

[Ash4781b]

5 hours ago, afly said:

Stealing DB predictions again? Getting a bit spooky now

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/buy-to-let/dont-know-how-support-family-landlords-retirement-dreams-tatters/

 

“Hundreds of thousands of pension plans are at risk as the Government’s rental sector overhaul derails the buy-to-let business model, landlords have warned.”

Didn’t think BTL was technically a pension? 

[Plan-b]

2 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/russia-and-china-are-brewing-up-a-challenge-to-dollar-dominance-by-creating-a-new-reserve-currency/amp_articleshow/92437095.cms
 

If this ever materialises, that’s when PMs run to the moon.

I see Danger: If so then I see the PM sector being carpet bombed into oblivion, I don't think the western PTB will go down without a fight.

Gold is western central bank cryptonite.

I really would like to think your prediction is correct. 

 

[Lightly Toasted]

16 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

“Hundreds of thousands of pension plans are at risk as the Government’s rental sector overhaul derails the buy-to-let business model, landlords have warned.”

Didn’t think BTL was technically a pension? 

"BTL = pension" is equivalent to "P2P lending = bank deposit".

It's irresponsible of the media to go along with the idea but I suppose most journalists are deep into the cult as well. Even if quoting a BTL landlord they should clarify -- they don't hesitate to qualify something like "election fraud claims" with "baseless", why can't they qualify "BTL pension" with "delusional" or at least "touch wood"?

Bottom line: a pension has a counterparty on the hook to make predictable payments.

 

[Ash4781b]

12 minutes ago, Lightly Toasted said:

"BTL = pension" is equivalent to "P2P lending = bank deposit".

It's irresponsible of the media to go along with the idea but I suppose most journalists are deep into the cult as well. Even if quoting a BTL landlord they should clarify -- they don't hesitate to qualify something like "election fraud claims" with "baseless", why can't they qualify "BTL pension" with "delusional" or at least "touch wood"?

Bottom line: a pension has a counterparty on the hook to make predictable payments.

 

I’ve had a few drinks but just reading through this from earlier in the week

“It has been a successful rental, but I’ve hardly reduced the loan and I’m worried about remortgaging”

Read it and almost spat out my wine !

“The reality is that, even if it’s by accident, you are currently committing mortgage fraud which is a criminal offence. I suggest that you find a solicitor specialising in mortgage fraud for advice on putting things right.”

https://amp.theguardian.com/money/2022/jun/20/should-i-keep-my-buy-to-let-flat-or-sell-it

[Noallegiance]

24 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

I see Danger: If so then I see the PM sector being carpet bombed into oblivion, I don't think the western PTB will go down without a fight.

Gold is western central bank cryptonite.

I really would like to think your prediction is correct. 

 

Given the moronic 'journalism' these days and the ease with which people are turned on their fellow hermaphrodite, what chances gold holders are demonised as Putin allies?!

[Lightly Toasted]

1 minute ago, Ash4781b said:

I’ve had a few drinks but just reading through this from earlier in the week

“It has been a successful rental, but I’ve hardly reduced the loan and I’m worried about remortgaging”

Read it and almost spat out my wine !

 

https://amp.theguardian.com/money/2022/jun/20/should-i-keep-my-buy-to-let-flat-or-sell-it

"... it has been a successful let, covering the interest-only payments and the costs of managing it."

Still, it's a Guardian reader going to the Guardian for financial advice(!), so different accounting standards apply:

The group currently relies on owner the Scott Trust’s £1bn endowment fund to make up its cash shortfalls, which allowed it to break even in 2018/19.

(though it's not really breaking even if you're drawing down your trust fund)

 

[Plan-b]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

Given the moronic 'journalism' these days and the ease with which people are turned on their fellow hermaphrodite, what chances gold holders are demonised as Putin allies?!

Yes I agree.

In history someone said (maybe FDR?) that during the great depression the failure to properly suppress private gold ownership was later seen as a mistake. (It was tried but not fully/properly enforced)

Different times different reasons, if the BRICS see PMs as an asset for the future defeat of western (US) hegemony then PMs might be banned or demonized for the likes of us.

Silver really is the ultimate PM, it is very tightly controlled- for now (See the Hunt Brothers).

 

 

 

 

[wherebee]

34 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Yes I agree.

In history someone said (maybe FDR?) that during the great depression the failure to properly suppress private gold ownership was later seen as a mistake. (It was tried but not fully/properly enforced)

Different times different reasons, if the BRICS see PMs as an asset for the future defeat of western (US) hegemony then PMs might be banned or demonized for the likes of us.

Silver really is the ultimate PM, it is very tightly controlled- for now (See the Hunt Brothers).

 

That will be interesting given mass migration into the UK of Indian and Pakistanis for 40 years, who have a cultural appreciation of gold.  TPTB will be poking the bear on that one if they try confiscation.

[Plan-b]

38 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Silver really is the ultimate PM, it is very tightly controlled- for now (See the Hunt Brothers).

https://priceonomics.com/how-the-hunt-brothers-cornered-the-silver-market/

 

 

 

 

[Foor]

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/06/26/Four-G7-powers-impose-ban-on-Russian-gold-exports

Is it me or are all these sanctions aimed more at or to do with the bankcrupt West trying to maintain confidence in there toilet roll currencys? 

Four G7 powers will ban Russian gold exports in a new bid to stop oligarchs from buying the precious metal to avoid the impact of sanctions against Moscow, Britain said Sunday.

The joint action taken by Britain, Canada, Japan and the United States, “will directly hit Russian oligarchs and strike at the heart of (President Vladimir) Putin’s war machine,” said British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

[Axeman123]

1 minute ago, Foor said:

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/06/26/Four-G7-powers-impose-ban-on-Russian-gold-exports

Is it me or are all these sanctions aimed more at or to do with the bankcrupt West trying to maintain confidence in there toilet roll currencys? 

Four G7 powers will ban Russian gold exports in a new bid to stop oligarchs from buying the precious metal to avoid the impact of sanctions against Moscow, Britain said Sunday.

The joint action taken by Britain, Canada, Japan and the United States, “will directly hit Russian oligarchs and strike at the heart of (President Vladimir) Putin’s war machine,” said British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Surely they are going to reduce gold supply within the western sphere of influence, and hence inflate the value of western CBs holdings? The only way this could acheive the bolded part is preventing oligarchs buying gold within Russia and then moving it to the west to sell, but wouldn't having most of the gold in Russia end up here be a sound goal for the west? How are they defining gold as Russian for that matter, would it be as simple as Russians buying Swiss minted bars?

I see that putting the oligarchs' nuts in a vice is leverage to try and force them to topple Putin, but how likely is that to actually work? If we believe the propaganda Putin kills people in London with radiation and nerve agents, who is going to cross him?

[Foor]

11 hours ago, Plan-b said:

I see Danger: If so then I see the PM sector being carpet bombed into oblivion, I don't think the western PTB will go down without a fight.

Gold is western central bank cryptonite.

I really would like to think your prediction is correct. 

 

Look at the Russian PM miners, the west has already demonized them.

Even Hoch and Cey are on their arses.

It will interesting to see what the goverment do about Polymetal, an ex listed FTSE company, kicked out of the Russell index; now residing on the bottom feeds of the LSE lurking like some AIM stock. Massive UK PI holdings in there.

I wonder whether the board have come to some agreement with the UK goverment behind the scenes. They have not suspended it, and now with the Russian gold export ban in place. I guess its another red week for Polymetal.

It really is becoming quite obvious that all these sanctions are designed around something other than this invasion of Ukraine.

Something is brewing, they leave Johnson at the helm, to buffer all this stuff. In days gone by, a lying PM who is obviously very unpopular with the voting public would be long gone by now, yet he is planning ahead for 2028 by all accounts. Quite astounding these modern times we now live in.

[Pip321]

7 minutes ago, Foor said:

Look at the Russian PM miners, the west has already demonized them.

Even Hoch and Cey are on their arses.

It will interesting to see what the goverment do about Polymetal, an ex listed FTSE company, kicked out of the Russell index; now residing on the bottom feeds of the LSE lurking like some AIM stock. Massive UK PI holdings in there.

I wonder whether the board have come to some agreement with the UK goverment behind the scenes. They have not suspended it, and now with the Russian gold export ban in place. I guess its another red week for Polymetal.

It really is becoming quite obvious that all these sanctions are designed around something other than this invasion of Ukraine.

Something is brewing, they leave Johnson at the helm, to buffer all this stuff. In days gone by, a lying PM who is obviously very unpopular with the voting public would be long gone by now, yet he is planning ahead for 2028 by all accounts. Quite astounding these modern times we now live in.

Agree.

Sanctions and “stopping the Ukraine war” I my mind were always mutually exclusive. The speed sanctions were introduced (30 seconds after the first tank rolled in) suggested to me the West were desperate to create a lasting West/East split. Allows removal of manufacturing from the East to back West….and maybe allows the US and the dollar to remain king in an albeit smaller world. 

The US doesn’t much care about any deaths due to school or mass shootings happening literally every day…because of weapon sponsorship. So they hardly care about some ‘Russian speaking east Europeans’ in somewhere called Ukraine. I bet if we look Ukrainians is some Hollywood movies will be ‘the baddies’ and indistinguishable from those pesky Russians. 

I think ‘initially’ gold and Poly may drop due to uncertainty….but ‘initially’ could just be a few days or a week. 

What I find really interesting is what the impact on gold prices will be once the market can think about it. Limiting supply in the west like they did with oil  could create higher prices, but demonising Russian gold (or indeed gold generally) will lower prices. BTC would be vice versa.

Thoughts on gold prices and gold miner prices (East and West) welcome. 

[M S E Refugee]

1 minute ago, Pip321 said:

Agree.

Sanctions and “stopping the Ukraine war” I my mind were always mutually exclusive. The speed sanctions were introduced (30 seconds after the first tank rolled in) suggested to me the West were desperate to create a lasting West/East split. Allows removal of manufacturing from the East to back West….and maybe allows the US and the dollar to remain king in an albeit smaller world. 

The US doesn’t much care about any deaths due to school or mass shootings happening literally every day…because of weapon sponsorship. So they hardly care about some ‘Russian speaking east Europeans’ in somewhere called Ukraine. I bet if we look Ukrainians is some Hollywood movies will be ‘the baddies’ and indistinguishable from those pesky Russians. 

I think ‘initially’ gold and Poly may drop due to uncertainty….but ‘initially’ could just be a few days or a week. 

What I find really interesting is what the impact on gold prices will be once the market can think about it. Limiting supply in the west like they did with oil  could create higher prices, but demonising Russian gold (or indeed gold generally) will lower prices. BTC would be vice versa.

Thoughts on gold prices and gold miner prices (East and West) welcome. 

I would imagine the same thing would happen with Gold as what is happening with Oil at the moment.

Somewhere like India will buy it off the Russians and melt it down and recast the bars as Indian Gold then sell it to the West at a premium.

The West looks pretty feeble at the moment.