Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Transistor Man]

30 minutes ago, Errol said:

The ‘oil cap’ is simple in theory: the G7 will refuse to provide insurance to any vessel that carries Russian oil unless the cargo is sold with an agreed price cap. 

Simple to some. But I don’t get it at all.

How does anyone - insurance company or whoever - know what price russia and India have actually agreed on? 

They could stick $35 tickets on the barrels, but who knows how they’d actually settle up?

[afly]

6 minutes ago, Transistor Man said:

Simple to some. But I don’t get it at all.

How does anyone - insurance company or whoever - know what price russia and India have actually agreed on? 

They could stick $35 tickets on the barrels, but who knows how they’d actually settle up?

Given how sanctions have worked thus far I would imagine RUS/IN/CHI will just enter the vessel transport & insurance game and make the west poorer still

[Joncrete Cungle]

1 minute ago, afly said:

Given how sanctions have worked thus far I would imagine RUS/IN/CHI will just enter the vessel transport & insurance game and make the west poorer still

Said it a week or two ago. China or Middle East will start insuring oil tankers from now on. Circumventing more useless sanctions and taking insurance business away from London.

[Democorruptcy]

35 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

It would be hilarious. Can't see it actually happening. Can he just pop in to see the Queen and call it? The fixed terms parliament act is long gone. "Hi your Maj, things are coming on top down Parliament. We need a new one. Let's have an election." To which the Queen would reply, "You've been a naughty boy. Is this for real or are you lying to me as well? Go for it, I didn't think I'd see another general election."

Proroguing Parliament isn't an option this time. Shame, it is a great word.

He can ask but she could refuse.

 

[Chewing Grass]

Somebody in the know will have made a swift profit on this today.

 

[Axeman123]

30 minutes ago, Transistor Man said:

Simple to some. But I don’t get it at all.

How does anyone - insurance company or whoever - know what price russia and India have actually agreed on? 

They could stick $35 tickets on the barrels, but who knows how they’d actually settle up?

Guessing: The agreed payment would need sanctions wavers, and paying extra or making secondary payments would be a breach. The actual payments in Euro etc to Gazprom Bank go via Swift too, I think.

[Axeman123]

20 minutes ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

Said it a week or two ago. China or Middle East will start insuring oil tankers from now on. Circumventing more useless sanctions and taking insurance business away from London.

Destroying German Industry and the City of London. It is almost like the sanctions aren't actually targetting Russia...

[afly]

Or maybe IN/CHI can buy oil from RUS at 40$ and then sell the oil they produce (unrelated) to the west at $100? (prob much more due the self imposed scarcity and desperate need)

A sudden RUS upstart selling fresh air to those countries, only $30 a barrel.

Toothless, pointless, clueless

[CannonFodder]

33 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Destroying German Industry and the City of London. It is almost like the sanctions aren't actually targetting Russia...

Or germany wants out of the eu and this is how they'll do it - collapse it

[DurhamBorn]

5 hours ago, Metalheadz said:

This is true, and also more energy in there I guess.

I happen to think the energy/inflation trade has burst and we are now in the "recession" trade.

S&P is down 20%, DAX down 22%, Euro Stoxx down 22%, ASX down 13%, Japan down 15%

I guess my thought is, why is the whole world not kicking the shit out of us right now? I would/will!

UK was already undervalued due to Brexit trade etc.BAT more than halved.BT was down 80% etc etc etc.No other big index leaned more to inflation.

[CannonFodder]

I feel in this game of musical chairs, someone is not going to have a seat when the music stops.

I dont think its Brics, its probably not America.

It could be UK or Germany.

But smallers EU countries like the Baltics or Finland or Netherlands are the most likely imho.

Euro and EU wont survive this I think

[Yadda yadda yadda]

6 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

Or germany wants out of the eu and this is how they'll do it - collapse it

Everyone wants out of everything.

[GoneDark]

2 hours ago, Plan-b said:

Nah... 

That's them kneeling before the IMF, they're just about to put their hands out.

[DurhamBorn]

32 minutes ago, GoneDark said:

That's them kneeling before the IMF, they're just about to put their hands out.

IMF couldnt fund our deficit, its huge and structural.Inflation would of helped,that is until Bojo decided to hand half the population inflation protection,the half that take zero risk as well.

[afly]

4 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

I'd like to offer you Chancellor.

I accept. Thanks so much. You should resign.

It's quite some turn around. Maybe there was a note on the desk from Rishi saying the only way out of this is to reduce bennies but the pillsbury boy is having none of it and so they are economically and electorally fucked

[ThoughtCriminal]

This is a telling quote from No.10:

 

"The source adds that Johnson explained to cabinet ministers tonight that the options are not "Boris or no Boris".

Rather, it's about giving Johnson either a "fresh chancellor and new programme, that Rishi was not prepared to do"

 

Looks like sunak wasn't prepared to implement a change of direction in economic policy which tallies with what he said in his resignation letter.

[Lightly Toasted]

22 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

IMF couldnt fund our deficit, its huge and structural.Inflation would of helped,that is until Bojo decided to hand half the population inflation protection,the half that take zero risk as well.

It wouldn't have to fund our deficit. The idea of going "cap in hand" to the IMF is that they give you a one-off (or at least, not open-ended) emergency loan and in return you commit to making fiscal/economic reforms to put your house in order.

IMF intervention may offer political cover for the administering of bad-tasting medicine. OTOH I don't think it was a coincidence that the UK's 1976 bailout was followed a couple of years later by the Winter of Discontent.

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

28 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

This is a telling quote from No.10:

 

"The source adds that Johnson explained to cabinet ministers tonight that the options are not "Boris or no Boris".

Rather, it's about giving Johnson either a "fresh chancellor and new programme, that Rishi was not prepared to do"

 

Looks like sunak wasn't prepared to implement a change of direction in economic policy which tallies with what he said in his resignation letter.

The 50 year intergenerational mortgage fuelled by more QE? 

 

Boris is full on wef mental now 

 

 

[leonardratso]

see BJ sacked uncle gove. Whos going to do the seal clapping now?

[ste]

Didn't know that fact about inflation index-linked debt...

https://vocaroo.com/1jBVhf7PzfEq 

[HousePriceMania]

2 minutes ago, ste said:

Didn't know that fact about inflation index-linked debt...

https://vocaroo.com/1jBVhf7PzfEq 

My indexed link saving certs are up 30k in a year.  The average wage round us is less than that 

I always intended them to fund my retirement essential spending 

[The Grey Man]

37 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

The 50 year intergenerational mortgage fuelled by more QE? 

 

Boris is full on wef mental now 

 

 

A good point to note.

EDF own a fair chunk of the energy supply in the UK.

Switch to the earlier comments, or perhaps late last week, the UK would not share gas supplies in undefined difficulties.

Hmm. That is a potential fight. 

Can we just go back to about 1999? 

It seemed so easy then.

[JMD]

49 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

 

Is state nationalisation allowed under EU rules?

[HousePriceMania]

Let's face it, fat boris refusing to quit is a sure sign something is seriously fucked. 

 

What next? 

[M S E Refugee]

3 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Let's face it, fat boris refusing to quit is a sure sign something is seriously fucked. 

 

What next? 

More likely that Princess Nut Nut won't relinquish her powers or Bojo knows she will leave him once he resigns.