Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Jay]

18 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I was taken by the way she said "assistance" a few times before she said "dole", looked like she was almost embarrassed to use the word.

I can remember people like that.

Brilliant working class people who just got on  with it..proud people would did their best..helping as well..as a kid got to see a bit of those living conditions and attitude..a blessing…times are a changing…very few people like them left…very sad…

Thanks to whoever posted it..I will count my blessings…and shillings 

[JMD]

1 hour ago, BurntBread said:

I have seen various graphs where house prices are being shown to be out of kilter with (for example) wages, or rents, of GDP or whatever. One issue is that all the lines are increasing slowly, but broadly exponentially, so the left hand part tends to be near zero and hard to read. People try to get around this issue by re-basing to 100 at some point, and only plotting a limited time-span. However, what they are really trying to show is that the ratio between the two things has got to extraordinary levels. That's quite hard to judge at a glance on a linear scale, but dead easy on a log scale: choose the right tool for the job. The issue with compressed scales at early times also goes away with a log scale. I think the problem is people are not used to logarithms, so find it difficult to interpret these kinds of graphs.

Boris Johnson believes log graphs are less triggering when expressed in inches or pounds!!  ...anyway i think that's the reasoning behind the 'patrician-push' for imperial measures?!                                                                                                                                              However I for one am certainly impressed that our government has the spare time and brain capacity to be thinking about those type of subjects whilst the world economy is going to crap!

[Plan-b]

49 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Bring back coal to fight Russia – Poland https://www.rt.com/news/558391-poland-coal-fight-russia/

I think eventually this Net Zero nonsense will be put to bed and Coal will make a comeback to save the Politicians from being strung up.

That would be a shame as I'm currently long Rope and Lampposts 

[Eventually Right]

Alexco, AXU taken out by Hecla...implied price of $0.47

$3.20 13 months ago, and I topped up at 0.76 on the 17th of June....

Let me have some "Bogged" guys, I think i deserve it! 

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Plan-b said:

Do you know where the Swiss get the bulk of their energy from?

I know thats a bit of a silly question but the answer would surely be fundamentally important.

I heard they'd achieved the 'Swiss Holy Grail' by inventing the perpetual clockwork power-pack.

[wherebee]

25 minutes ago, JMD said:

As you mention rain and water problems down in Oz, i wondered what your view is on Sydney and its floods currently happening there? Its being reported here as climate change related, and apparently rainfall has increased in recent years (is that true I wonder?) - but wondering if anything to do with other factors such as poor planning/drainage? 

I did some rescue work in Victoria in 09.  An area the size of Germany flooded.  One town I went in was 25km from the nearest water normally and flooded a meter deep. Australia has always been a land of fire and flood.  Is it getting worse?

hundreds of thousands of houses have been built on flood plains due to bent contractors and councils (although some councils fought this, developers could appeal to the state and often won).  hundreds of thousands of yards have been concreted over and drives too.  When it rains in Oz, it rains big - think inches in hours.  The more you build in shit locations, the more flooding gets worse due to runoff.  Also, green activists convinced state gvts no more rainfall.  So no dams were built, and existing ones not expanded.

I suspect it's a combination of building in shit places, the maunder minimum bringing ten years of cooler, wetter weather to Australia, and the media/gvt wanting to push the climate change message.

 

[Chewing Grass]

2 minutes ago, wherebee said:

I did some rescue work in Victoria in 09.  An area the size of Germany flooded.  One town I went in was 25km from the nearest water normally and flooded a meter deep. Australia has always been a land of fire and flood.  Is it getting worse?

hundreds of thousands of houses have been built on flood plains due to bent contractors and councils (although some councils fought this, developers could appeal to the state and often won).  hundreds of thousands of yards have been concreted over and drives too.  When it rains in Oz, it rains big - think inches in hours.  The more you build in shit locations, the more flooding gets worse due to runoff.  Also, green activists convinced state gvts no more rainfall.  So no dams were built, and existing ones not expanded.

I suspect it's a combination of building in shit places, the maunder minimum bringing ten years of cooler, wetter weather to Australia, and the media/gvt wanting to push the climate change message.

 

I bet greater Sydney has nearly tripled in size in the last 50 years with the amount of land tarmacked and concreted quadrupling.

Where I live in the UK all the old watercourses that had 10 foot wide streams running through them 40 years ago are now infested with trees and/or invasive species. Its a massive flood waiting to happen as all the low lying areas these ran through are also now doubly developed which equals more runoff with nowhere to go quickly.

[Jay]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv been going through every stock i own working out how much they earn outside sterling.They need to be inflation areas o course.Im not going to sell BT and buy more TEF,but at the same time if i wanted to add more telcos (i dont im full) then id more likely add one with more EM exposure.

In many ways the UK is well placed,but our institutions have been taken over by lefties who will keep pushing for inflation because they are immune on the government teat.The current direction is systemic collapse territory.Of course unlikely we get to the destination,but how far along we get before change is key and it wont be pretty.

Mostly the cost of this isnt falling on taxpayers,its falling on bond holders,but its likely they will then decide not to continue buying or holding gilts or indeed treasuries.I think one of the huge outcomes will be massive amounts of Asian savings go into their stock markets instead of western debt markets.Im pretty much directing all divi income etc to the area.

 

Great post…

I admire your faith in government to change direction…politics follow the economic as you say…what happens next will be very unpleasant for most…life changing…it’s a recession if your neighbor loses their job….a depression if you lose yours..

Biggest problem for uk is population and demographics..wealth transfer and destruction..theft..

1940s was half war and half rationing…1970s was begging bowl and cutbacks..energy was still cheap….now uk population is up 40 percentage and multi diverse..high energy demand…smoke and mirrors time…need a bogey man or group…

bird in the hand is better than two in the bush..possession is 9 tenth of the law..etc..

this really is Harley territory..

as a follower of old managers like rogers Asia is a good call..the gulf and Far East..oz too..

your calls have been exceptional….get your self down to the east before your retired copper neighbors do..you will enjoy it …make a bob or two as well.

Back to the monastery….

 

 

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

49 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

I am seeing roughly 150 out of 300 TWh total coming from oil/coal/gas for 2020, with 100 of the 300 being just oil. Cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry basket perhaps, but not exactly lacking exposure. It certainly is enlightening to evaluate currencies based on energy security though.

In terms of the CHF, I personally can't help thinking as a contrarian...

It's a fair line of enquiry, but when it comes to currencies then it's all relative. It's not "who's a shithead?" It's "who less of a shithead?".

 

Plus we should remember that the Swiss are neutral, so less likely to be subjected to Russian fuckery.

 

They've made the requisite light "Oooo, isn't the invasion awful!" noises, but when it came to the EU asking them to send some of their Leopard tanks to Ukraine they told them to go and fuck themselves.

[Talking Monkey]

12 hours ago, Barnsey said:

The assault on holiday homes continues!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/07/04/welsh-councils-allowed-cap-number-second-homes/

Welsh councils will be able to cap the number of second homes in their towns and villages, the Labour Government has announced.

Under the new plan, homeowners who want to offer short-term holiday lets, such as through Airbnb, will also require a licence. 

Local authorities in Wales have already been given the power to increase council tax on second homes by 300 per cent from next year.

In other news, just when we all thought things were fine again, I've been knocked for six by the C word, probably worst I've  been since first getting it in Jan 2020 which has been a nasty surprise. Going to be interesting to see how this plays out over next few weeks, great reason to get more people working from home for a bit during all the strikes etc.

 

15 hours ago, NTB said:

 

I wonder if rocketing the council tax on BTLs may be a revenue raising tactic the government might use. If they start on holiday homes might not be too big a jump in their thinking to raise council tax on BTLs 

[Axeman123]

1 minute ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Plus we should remember that the Swiss are neutral, so less likely to be subjected to Russian fuckery.

A good point, the question to my mind though is "how neutral?". Are they co-operating with financial sanctions for example? If we say that the US and RF are already de facto at war, with hostilities confined to the hybrid warfare sphere, if they are participating in sanctions it is hard to see how that doesn't make them a de facto belligerent in the modern world. The Swiss famously financed the Nazi war-machine and laundered the proceeds of the holocaust, in the name of neutrality. They don't seem to be as neutral towards Russia today as that.

They are also geographcally encircled by EU states, and might have the worst of both worlds; no gas or oil unless on good terms with both the EU and RF, and only then if they are on good terms with each other. Geopolitics is starting to reassert it self as a key variable, just like geology. 

[JMD]

39 minutes ago, wherebee said:

I did some rescue work in Victoria in 09.  An area the size of Germany flooded.  One town I went in was 25km from the nearest water normally and flooded a meter deep. Australia has always been a land of fire and flood.  Is it getting worse?

hundreds of thousands of houses have been built on flood plains due to bent contractors and councils (although some councils fought this, developers could appeal to the state and often won).  hundreds of thousands of yards have been concreted over and drives too.  When it rains in Oz, it rains big - think inches in hours.  The more you build in shit locations, the more flooding gets worse due to runoff.  Also, green activists convinced state gvts no more rainfall.  So no dams were built, and existing ones not expanded.

I suspect it's a combination of building in shit places, the maunder minimum bringing ten years of cooler, wetter weather to Australia, and the media/gvt wanting to push the climate change message.

 

Good information. Thanks. Yes the maunder minimum effect is 'hilarious' isn't it (well I consider it is, given I'm a carbon-climate 'change' skeptic), and so no measured global temp increases since 2007, yet curiously this anomaly is never mentioned. In fact the reporter for those Sydney floods actually stated one of the reasons for them happening was rising world temperatures. 

[M S E Refugee]

Germans forced to ration hot water – media https://www.rt.com/business/558390-germans-ration-hot-water/

[working woman]

News from the shop floor this week - conversations I am having (large clothes shop)

Assistant Manager vacancy still not filled - 6 weeks now. Manager said, I can't get anyone, no-one wants to work. They all want to sit at home on benefits. Retail seen as risky with covid.

Manager from another store - "i can't get staff to work extra hours as it affects their benefits".

Colleague (60's)  - I don't want extra shifts as I will have to pay tax on it and it's not worth it. NMW after 20% tax = £7.34/hr - not much of an incentive. I know a few people who also think the same.

Boomers - out spending like there is no tomorrow. "I have 3 wardrobes of clothes". "I was poor as a kid so making up for it" (surely you have had the last 70 years to make up for  it?)

My 85 year old Aunt is coming over from Oz next week and can't wait to go shopping for clothes. Her childhood - WW2 evacuee to Wales and lived in poverty.  

Store will struggle when boomers die off (2025-2030) Major population demographic change. Gen X is a smaller group. 

Colleague (60's) I took my grandkids to the park and noticed lots of other grandparents there. When I was a child we hardly saw our grandparents. Me - No, our Mum's were at home, but lots of today's Mums have to work to pay mortgages. 

Customer (70's) - in conversation about energy this winter. "We will just have to get on with it. There is nothing we can do" 

Work experience girl (14) - on her first day "I can't believe you spend all day on your feet, don't you sit down? My feet are killing me. When do I finish? Me "5 minutes" My husband "You should have told her she will finish in 53 years and then will finally be able to put her feet up."

As the Green Rep in the store, I asked her if she would like a bit of training on sustainable fashion - no interest at all. I have noticed this in her age group. I think it is all the Millenials that are interested in Green stuff and being a vegan etc. 

[ThoughtCriminal]

8 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

A good point, the question to my mind though is "how neutral?". Are they co-operating with financial sanctions for example? If we say that the US and RF are already de facto at war, with hostilities confined to the hybrid warfare sphere, if they are participating in sanctions it is hard to see how that doesn't make them a de facto belligerent in the modern world. The Swiss famously financed the Nazi war-machine and laundered the proceeds of the holocaust, in the name of neutrality. They don't seem to be as neutral towards Russia today as that.

They are also geographcally encircled by EU states, and might have the worst of both worlds; no gas or oil unless on good terms with both the EU and RF, and only then if they are on good terms with each other. Geopolitics is starting to reassert it self as a key variable, just like geology. 

The Swiss position on sanctions is.......well, typically Swiss. They've signed onto the EU sanctions but on gas and oil they've said they'll "examine the implications" before transition period ends next year.

 

I don't think they'll have a problem being landlocked from the oil, the Italians have QUADRUPLED Russian oil imports since Ukraine invasion.

 

My only real consideration is how is the UK going to do compared to Switzerland.

 

Considering what a basket case we're starting to resemble then I can't see CHF declining against sterling. Famous last words lol

[M S E Refugee]

 

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

The EU is on borrowed time.

[Option5]

2 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

The Swiss position on sanctions is.......well, typically Swiss. They've signed onto the EU sanctions but on gas and oil they've said they'll "examine the implications" before transition period ends next year.

 

I don't think they'll have a problem being landlocked from the oil, the Italians have QUADRUPLED Russian oil imports since Ukraine invasion.

 

My only real consideration is how is the UK going to do compared to Switzerland.

 

Considering what a basket case we're starting to resemble then I can't see CHF declining against sterling. Famous last words lol

They also have the issue that Nordstream (and Nordstream 2) is  based and operated from Switzerland. I imagine a few other Russian O&G entities are also based there.

[M S E Refugee]

 

 

[Axeman123]

1 minute ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

The EU is on borrowed time.

Random thoughts from my morning dump:

Who are the American sanctions targetting? Applying a Marxist type analysis (ie outcomes are everything) it can't possibly be Russia, since they are actually strengthening rather than weakening them. Logically then: everyone else.

Why did the US empire have its heyday in the decades immediately after WW2? Because everyone else's industry was in ruins, except theirs. If the US is a terminally declining empire, wouldn't re-running that scenario give them a chance to relive the 1950s and 60s? Putting the EU back to the conditions at the end of WW2 would obviously be a massive boost for US onshoring and reindustrialisation. Would the USA really destroy an entire continent for geo-political games? I would point to the war on drugs and pablo Escobar etc as it's innevitable outcome as proof that yes, they have before. Even the disasterous abandonment of Afghan would make sense in that light as a way to destabilise the region, and contain or destabilise India.

If America is to abandon its empire that it can no longer support, it makes total sense to salt the earth there. Europe may have felt it had a special status, but I am not so sure.

[Sugarlips]

 

Whilst we are on a YT run, thought this was worth a listen

[ThoughtCriminal]

My view on oil and gas sanctions is that alternative supplies don't exist (at a comparable price) and renewables are an absolute fantasy, so when reality inevitably reasserts itself the EU can either crawl cap in hand to Russia or watch its citizens freeze and it's economy fall apart.

[HousePriceMania]

Funny Story.

I looked at the BP share price on Friday and thought...2 months ago that would look cheap, so I bought a chunk.

I sat all weekend thinking, what am I doing, I have a plan and need to stick to it, so I sold first thing Monday, see the black lines...have to chuckle.

Im sticking to my plan from now on.

 

 

 

I've just gone and bought a lottery ticket, £185M this week !!!

 

[Noallegiance]

50 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

The EU is on borrowed time.

Cool.

Suffering from raging price rises? Cut production and hand out more money to buy the stuff that isn't being produced!

[Chewing Grass]

1 minute ago, Noallegiance said:

Cool.

Suffering from raging price rises? Cut production and hand out more money to buy the stuff that isn't being produced!

This is going to be so funny at work where they still think they can source specialist steel from Ukraine over the next 3 years.