Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Axeman123]

13 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

My view on oil and gas sanctions is that alternative supplies don't exist (at a comparable price) and renewables are an absolute fantasy, so when reality inevitably reasserts itself the EU can either crawl cap in hand to Russia or watch its citizens freeze and it's economy fall apart.

Mine too.

Going back to the cartoon from earlier in the thread (with the EU bull and US matador waving a Russian flag); The cliff represents the EU's freezing citizens and economic collapse, and the matadors' sword held aloft ready to strike represents the US sanctions that will be applied to the EU if it lays down exhausted and makes peace with Russia.

There isn't a wasted or accidental pixel in said cartoon IMO.

[Chewing Grass]

42 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

 

Whilst we are on a YT run, thought this was worth a listen

20% interest rates are not going to stop a currency crisis - might as well give up now.

[belfastchild]

On 29/06/2022 at 17:11, Yadda yadda yadda said:

We recently signed a deal with Norway for more gas over the next few years. Of the major European nations excluding Russia we appear to be in the best position. Of course we will be paying the market rate for all additional gas.

Well, that didnt age well.

[JMD]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

 

 

Yes, the Dutch government really are shocking. Although tbf the entire European political class appear to be having a collective breakdown.                                                                                                                      The BBC were interviewing the Dutch defence minister last week, basically querying her countries 2% defence spending commitment, anyway to cut through the political platitudes the interviewer asked what their next defense budget would actually be spent on. The minister replied that they had yet to complete their defence review but had already agreed an immediate commitment to increase military staff wages and for buying more ammunition!!   ...is it me, or is this pure Monty Python?

[DurhamBorn]

12 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

20% interest rates are not going to stop a currency crisis - might as well give up now.

Exactly they would ensure sterling went to nothing.Rates dont drive currency,direction of the economy relative to others does.Sterling needs 3.5% rates to start to flatline because that would signal the economy might start to balance.4 months after that might be a good time to sell BAT and buy Taylor Wimpey  il get my coat.............

[Chewing Grass]

More new cars were registered in June under Covid than were this year, in fact this June was the worst June ever.

[Option5]

What about counties with communal district heating? Their citizens don't have a choice when it comes to cutting back.

 

[Chewing Grass]

 

Looking at overpriced and over-hyped VAG products its hard to see how the behemoth will survive in its current form.

	JUNE				% Change
MARQUE	2022	% Market share	2021	% Market share

Audi

7,676

5.45

14,446

7.76

-46.86

SEAT

2,152

1.53

5,668

3.05

-62.03

Skoda

4,667

3.31

6,737

3.62

-30.73

Volkswagen

11,660

8.27

19,454

10.45

-40.06

 

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

The wheels seem to be coming off faster than anyone anticipated 

 

[Lightly Toasted]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

 

 

It would be chilling if he were right about nobody talking about this, but it's hard to believe that that could be the case when motorways are being closed, supermarkets not being supplied etc.

The first Dutch newspaper that I checked has this:

https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/albert-heijn-start-bevoorrading-winkels-weer-op-cbl-schade-voor-supermarkten-al-tientallen-miljoenen-euro-s~ba70e98d/

Quite a bit about the protests and also about the underlying reasoning (auto-translated):

Why is an excess of nitrogen harmful to nature?
First of all, let's get rid of a persistent misunderstanding: it is not nitrogen that is harmful to nature, but ammonia and nitrogen oxides. Some plants, such as blackberries, nettles and grass, will grow faster. If there are too many harmful nitrogen compounds in the air, water or soil, those plants overgrow other vegetation that does not thrive in a nitrogen-rich environment, such as heather and rare plants.

With those plants, the insects and butterflies that live on those plants also disappear. As a result, biodiversity is declining and nature is 'impoverished'. Many of those insects are actually needed to pollinate crops.

In addition, an excess of nitrogen also has consequences for water quality. If the nitrogen content in ditches, ponds and lakes is high, algae growth will increase. These algae absorb the oxygen in the water, causing aquatic plants and fish to die.

 

... which is fair enough, but if politicians object to intensive agriculture, they should have reduced demand for food by allowing Europe's population to decline organically, instead of insisting on mass immigration.

 

[moneyscam]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Funny Story.

I looked at the BP share price on Friday and thought...2 months ago that would look cheap, so I bought a chunk.

I sat all weekend thinking, what am I doing, I have a plan and need to stick to it, so I sold first thing Monday, see the black lines...have to chuckle.

Im sticking to my plan from now on.

 

 

 

I've just gone and bought a lottery ticket, £185M this week !!!

 

I did the same with my BP. Was looking to get rid of them for a while as I wasn't satisfied with the 4% yield. After Ukraine crisis broke, I watched oil go to $125 but saw it couldn't sustain it. My view was the inflationary shock would lead to significant demand destruction and thus not only equities would reflect this but also commodities. So I got rid @400 having originally bought them @ 320. I banked the capital gain and then redeployed the original capital into another stock paying 8% so doubled my investment income from the same amount of capital.

I just don't see how predictions of $200 or the crazy $380 JP Morgan per barrel recently cited as targets are reachable never mind sustainable with such demand destruction. With countries like Germany already talking about rationing in the middle of summer I feel this was the right call and I haven't really missed out on much upside in the major oilies. Good luck to those of you still in a sector which I still like but won't go back into until yields are >6%.

 

[THEFREEMAN]

Shell’s share price today cured my erectile dysfunction again

What’s the point of investing if the government can just fuck you over

[Sugarlips]

46 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

 

Looking at overpriced and over-hyped VAG products its hard to see how the behemoth will survive in its current form.

	JUNE				% Change
MARQUE	2022	% Market share	2021	% Market share

Audi

7,676

5.45

14,446

7.76

-46.86

SEAT

2,152

1.53

5,668

3.05

-62.03

Skoda

4,667

3.31

6,737

3.62

-30.73

Volkswagen

11,660

8.27

19,454

10.45

-40.06

 

 

 

Would be interesting to see that broken down between company cars vs private buyers.

A lot of private buyers who buy every year for the hell of it/because they can would’ve heard all the supply issues and decided it’s too hard.

Company cars were often churned every 3 years in the 90’s no idea what it is today but they are much more reliable and safe so 5 years wouldn’t be unreasonable especially as average miles would be well down over the last 2 years.

[DurhamBorn]

55 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

More new cars were registered in June under Covid than were this year, in fact this June was the worst June ever.

Look at the last three years combined,now thats bad.

[THEFREEMAN]

1 hour ago, Chewing Grass said:

More new cars were registered in June under Covid than were this year, in fact this June was the worst June ever.

Cars are shit and 90% of people won’t buy or use them given other options.

After 25 years progressively spending more time each day sitting in traffic, countries like the UK and France are finally putting in real cycle lanes. The level of congestion in every town is horrific and unsustainable. It’s all I ever do when I go back to the UK - sit in traffic.

When I first started getting the bus to school in 2000, I could be home at 1605 if the teacher let us out 3 mins early. I was getting home between 1700-1715 by the time I left in 2008. All because the bus spent the whole journey sitting in traffic. I’d walk home a lot because the 2 hour walk was more pleasurable than sitting in that fucking traffic

There are no car companies that have never gone bankrupt. No one buys cars when there are other options to travel.

And especially not today when an e-bike with a cargo for kids or stuff from ikea can be bought for £3k and get you 50 miles for 25p a day.

The only reason cars are popular is because the gubbermint removed all the cycle lanes and thousands of train stations and bus routes from 1960s onwards

 

[HousePriceMania]

15 minutes ago, THEFREEMAN said:

Shell’s share price today cured my erectile dysfunction again

What’s the point of investing if the government can just fuck you over

They want you to invest elsewhere....

 

 

Invest now before a tory cunt misses out.

[HousePriceMania]

12 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

Would be interesting to see that broken down between company cars vs private buyers.

 

The care worker who comes to one of my neighbours to clean her husbands arse was driving a convertible merc yesterday.

I must be doing something wrong.

[DurhamBorn]

11 minutes ago, THEFREEMAN said:

Shell’s share price today cured my erectile dysfunction again

What’s the point of investing if the government can just fuck you over

Erectile dysfunction?

Get one of these

https://www.union22.co.uk/products/john-smedley-adrian-short-sleeve-knitted-polo-navy

Pair of these 

https://www.reiss.com/style/st134262/U00944#U00944

Pair of these 

https://www.next.co.uk/style/st814589/M08862#M08862

Go out on the town,

Wake up to this in the morning,,,,,,,,,and huge wood.....

Inflation certain,hang in there.

[Chewing Grass]

19 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Look at the last three years combined,now thats bad.

Look at Peugeot/Citroen/Vauxhall sales combined over the last 25 years and its terrible.

[reformed nice guy]

59 minutes ago, Option5 said:

What about counties with communal district heating? Their citizens don't have a choice when it comes to cutting back.

All these countries are full of commie lefty wankers. They reap what they sow.

Freeze the means of production

Land, bread, freeze

The workers have nothing to loose but their jobs

Workers of the world, retire

Power comes from the barrel of oil

sorry

 

[Transistor Man]

1 hour ago, Option5 said:

What about counties with communal district heating? Their citizens don't have a choice when it comes to cutting back.

 

Largest network by far is in Russia. I think it can be a good system. Combined with cogeneration. Should be very efficient. 

[belfastchild]

1 minute ago, Transistor Man said:

Largest network by far is in Russia. 

Ive recommended Dimitry Orlovs 5 stages of collapse before and one of the things that struck me was his comments about no matter how bad it got during the fall of the Soviet Union, they kept the lights and the heat on regardless.

[Calcutta]

Hochschild took an absolute pasting today. Dydd and all that but it's a Peruvian owned company, so not like the government are going to screw it over like they might a foreign company. And I've spent a fair bit of time in Peru, they're smart people, unlikely to go full commie or fuck themselves over to prove a point. 

Silver price hasn't moved too much, I can only assume there's some sort of protest or whatever going on. 82for Hoch is a decent price. 

[Democorruptcy]

4 hours ago, moneyscam said:

This applies only when the currency is not for personal use (I go to Europe / Switzerland often for holidays and use the money I have there for that purpose) and only becomes chargeable upon disposal. As I said, the bulk of that money is not intended to be converted or repatriated to the UK. I can however import some of that as income under the tax free allowance (including FX gain). My only income now is dividend income and I am well below the combined income/ CGT / dividend tax allowances so have room to spare to import some that cash tax free if I want to.

Looks like you have it sorted but I just thought it was worth mentioning it was a chargeable asset because depending on circumstance, it could tip somebody into having to declare tax.

[ILikeCake]

11 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

Hochschild took an absolute pasting today. Dydd and all that but it's a Peruvian owned company, so not like the government are going to screw it over like they might a foreign company. And I've spent a fair bit of time in Peru, they're smart people, unlikely to go full commie or fuck themselves over to prove a point. 

Silver price hasn't moved too much, I can only assume there's some sort of protest or whatever going on. 82for Hoch is a decent price. 

Hoch and Fres both on my watchlist, both well down today.