Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[geordie_lurch]

Great pic to compliment the video earlier about the Dutch farmers having had enough

EDIT This is a heartwarming one of undercover police being forced to leave the protests too

 

[Ma2]

Just spent the last 2 hours catching up. Some great posts thanks all. 

here’s a great 45 min presentation to UK businesses from David Murrin which touches on a lot of the themes.

I like him because even though he is US based he is English and always manages to give me some hope that the UK will be on the up  

In his words we are in the right country but with the wrong leadership. Boris needed to surround himself with more lateral thinkers.

He also has a similar view to DB in that the cycles will dictate everything, in this case the rise and fall of empires  

He may well be biased or it may be propaganda as he also advises UK military (see that US guy posted last week saying to the US military that China is finished before year end - Murrin doesn’t see that at all btw)  

https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/media/a-meeting-of-minds-wealth-management

he has a wealth of info on his site including a vision for Britain 2025 which chimes with our discussions.
 

Let’s hope someone takes notice!

[DoINeedOne]

B2gold 4.6% dividend (i own some)

Mag silver is pretty much the price it was before covid (Thinking about first ladder)

 

[HousePriceMania]

Jesus wept

 

 

Consider myself very luck I sold on Monday, £1K profit instead of £1K loss.

 

[Democorruptcy]

4 hours ago, Eventually Right said:

Alexco, AXU taken out by Hecla...implied price of $0.47

$3.20 13 months ago, and I topped up at 0.76 on the 17th of June....

Let me have some "Bogged" guys, I think i deserve it! 

Have we to have a whip-round on here and buy it for $0.48? I'm not happy with $0.47!

[HousePriceMania]

 “Those clamorous harbingers of blood and death.”

[Pip321]

Trader comment alert (apologies in advance). A few weeks ago I listed a few basic UK shares on my radar which had dropped......well now we are into 2nd and 3rd ladder territory....but luckily I haven't been going mad.

Please note any prices I quote and like are all within the context of my other assets, and some of these shares are for me relatively small punts, so these prices absolutely do not apply as a recommendation to others on this thread, just rather give context to what I have been looking at. I like to mention prices purely to look back on 

My main purchase in these weeks was Rio which looked nice (caveat....looked nice to me) dropping from 6000 to 5600 to 5200, so bought @ 5171. Then a half ladder at 4780 and now we are down again.....4640 today. DB did warn commodities can really fall out of favour. 

Abdn and HL continue to dip after I bought...but happy they will come good. 

Several others I included but haven't yet (eg Fres, MnG, Synthomer) are down someway from what I considered a decent buy. I did mention some others (which I also didnt buy) but they have held up well. 

So I hovered over the button today to buy Rio and Fres but decided to wait. 

Whilst not really 'trading'...I am buying, but once I have decided on the buy it then feels like a trade ie to catch the right price. This shows me just how difficult that is and ladders do help to start getting skin in the game. 

And the dips today highlight BP back in play? 

The more I look at 'dips' like today the more I think we will have one (or two or three) last 'hurray'(s).....before we see the drop. Then a pivot, then a final hurray (maybe a melt up for a few weeks but not silly massive) and then a BK. 

So in the meantime I have requested a move of 25% of my invested SIPP fund into cash...(28 day waiting period now, ouch). That will now mean in total 40% in total will sit in the cash fund, the 60% invested is a broad 70/30 type fund but with some smoothing protection.

Once that bit moves to cash it will allow me to be a bit more aggressive with my buying outside the SIPP (I have an S&S ISA with a few years of contributions in).

28 days might be a good waiting and watching period.

[Sidd]

11 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

B2gold 4.6% dividend (i own some)

Mag silver is pretty much the price it was before covid (Thinking about first ladder)

 

Yes miners have erased nearly all gains since post covid money printing (some even lower). However spot still higher then this time, even with this set back.

 

Gold and silver acting like a speculative investment these days.

[Ma2]

Did anyone else forget to get rid of their Stagecoach shares?  

Not a big holding by any means but now a bit confused as to what actually happens going forward?

They’re in my SIPP so don’t need moving per ISA rules. 

Limited info out there seems to suggest you can just keep holding.

[HousePriceMania]

3 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Trader comment alert (apologies in advance). A few weeks ago I listed a few basic UK shares on my radar which had dropped......well now we are into 2nd and 3rd ladder territory....but luckily I haven't been going mad.

Please note any prices I quote and like are all within the context of my other assets, and some of these shares are for me relatively small punts, so these prices absolutely do not apply as a recommendation to others on this thread, just rather give context to what I have been looking at. I like to mention prices purely to look back on 

My main purchase in these weeks was Rio which looked nice (caveat....looked nice to me) dropping from 6000 to 5600 to 5200, so bought @ 5171. Then a half ladder at 4780 and now we are down again.....4640 today. DB did warn commodities can really fall out of favour. 

Abdn and HL continue to dip after I bought...but happy they will come good. 

Several others I included but haven't yet (eg Fres, MnG, Synthomer) are down someway from what I considered a decent buy. I did mention some others (which I also didnt buy) but they have held up well. 

So I hovered over the button today to buy Rio and Fres but decided to wait. 

Whilst not really 'trading'...I am buying, but once I have decided on the buy it then feels like a trade ie to catch the right price. This shows me just how difficult that is and ladders do help to start getting skin in the game. 

And the dips today highlight BP back in play? 

The more I look at 'dips' like today the more I think we will have one (or two or three) last 'hurray'(s).....before we see the drop. Then a pivot, then a final hurray (maybe a melt up for a few weeks but not silly massive) and then a BK. 

So in the meantime I have requested a move of 25% of my invested SIPP fund into cash...(28 day waiting period now, ouch). That will now mean in total 40% in total will sit in the cash fund, the 60% invested is a broad 70/30 type fund but with some smoothing protection.

Once that bit moves to cash it will allow me to be a bit more aggressive with my buying outside the SIPP (I have an S&S ISA with a few years of contributions in).

28 days might be a good waiting and watching period.

I was lucky I sold out 55% of my holdings in May, I've only got the SIPP and a couple of shorts going now.

The SIPP is a hold at all costs for me now because if the possibility of a £ collapse.

The rest I can move/buy quickly if the need arises.

need some nice price drops for houses to start now so I can look at getting money into one and a large mortgage to hedge against more and more inflation

I knew post 2007 the whole thing was fucked but the insanity of the last 2 years is beyond anything I thought possible.

[Noallegiance]

17 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Jesus wept

 

 

Consider myself very luck I sold on Monday, £1K profit instead of £1K loss.

 

Another little DH indicator. If stock pricing look forward, oil price in the short term has peaked.

DH gets a bashing but if he's right, he's right.

[Eventually Right]

On 23/06/2022 at 14:08, Eventually Right said:

Rio2 Provides Update of Fenix Gold Environmental Assessment Process - Junior Mining Network

Any other poor b*stards holding RIO2 and want to guess how far down this opens today?

With this immediately after the Alexco nightmare the other day, I'm seriously considering ditching all my miners and buying royalty cos...

Maybe some SLV/GLD yolo options just in case, but seriously...

And the hits just keep on coming, Rio2 down 40% today, as the EIA hasn't been approved.

 

[Sugarlips]

GBP heading down, getting ready to test its 1986 low soon:

 

[Eventually Right]

2 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Another little DH indicator. If stock pricing look forward, oil price in the short term has peaked.

DH gets a bashing but if he's right, he's right.

Sadly that hasn't been very often lately.

He even admitted he'd been very wrong on the dollar today.  That's either a sign of the impending apocalypse, or the markets are about to turn.  Fuck knows which...

https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian/status/1544331982058004480?s=20&t=uelW9m2ZKZXNQm_5cJiVgw

 

[DurhamBorn]

17 minutes ago, Ma2 said:

Did anyone else forget to get rid of their Stagecoach shares?  

Not a big holding by any means but now a bit confused as to what actually happens going forward?

They’re in my SIPP so don’t need moving per ISA rules. 

Limited info out there seems to suggest you can just keep holding.

I nearly fucked up in one of the family accounts because i forgot they had them.I logged in to transfer out some dividend cash and noticed the messages from HL so managed to sell them with 12 minutes to go before the deadline.I think what usually happens is they will make you an offer for the shares,usually at the offer price.Its hard to trade them until then though a market maker might make a market if someone wants to buy up the shares as might happen.

[HousePriceMania]

11 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

GBP heading down, getting ready to test its 1986 low soon:

 

Unelected Bank Of Liars not meeting till August....

[Axeman123]

35 minutes ago, Sidd said:

Yes miners have erased nearly all gains since post covid money printing (some even lower). However spot still higher then this time, even with this set back.

Gold and silver acting like a speculative investment these days.

The brutal sell-offs just reinforce my view we are in a big PM bullmarket

[DurhamBorn]

5,4,3,2,1 engines engaged,,,,,maybe

 

[Axeman123]

10 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Unelected Bank Of Liars not meeting till August....

Needs word "scheduled" IMO.

I can't see them waiting til (iirc) the 4th.

[moneyscam]

55 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Great pic to compliment the video earlier about the Dutch farmers having had enough

EDIT This is a heartwarming one of undercover police being forced to leave the protests too

 

Different angle and a little earlier than your video of same event. Note how the 'romeos' (dutch vernacular for undercover rozzers) arrive at venue, come steaming out trying to bash a few heads and then retreat sharpish. Government agent provocateurs to initiate violence so their chums in the MSM can edit and splice it to make it look like protesters are inherently violent and sway public opinion against them.

In the pre-internet and social media this was easy to do. Today, different ballgame.

[HousePriceMania]

2 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Needs word "scheduled" IMO.

I can't see them waiting til (iirc) the 4th.

I can.

[Plan-b]

And the hits just keep on coming, never mind next winter how about Gas & Power cuts this weekend...      

https://12ft.io/proxy?ref=&q=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/07/05/ftse-100-markets-live-news-flight-cancellations-nuclear-power/

[HousePriceMania]

30 minutes ago, Eventually Right said:

And the hits just keep on coming, Rio2 down 40% today, as the EIA hasn't been approved.

 

I'd give that multiple laughs If I could.

 

[Lightscribe]

5 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

The brutal sell-offs just reinforce my view we are in a big PM bullmarket

 

The brutal sell-offs just reinforce my view we are in a big **** bullmarket

Just avoid going down the echo chamber road (as I’m sure FIRE, crypto, ARKK investors are all saying the same thing) is to look at real world physical.

Yup the market knows it’s bullshit.

 

[feed]

10 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Needs word "scheduled" IMO.

I can't see them waiting til (iirc) the 4th.

FOMC on the 26th/27th. Not sure anyone is going to want to front run that, if they don't have to