Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[CannonFodder]

1 minute ago, Noallegiance said:

Fuck me you wouldn't want to be in their position; About as desperate as desperate can be with the begging bowl out to the Russian government.

Is it the first in line that gets the bad deal or the last?

Say the EU needs energy this winter and US not providing the goods

It wants russian oil back but bear cupboard is bare and sri lanka has that supply

Russia can supply oil gas wheat to the first half of countries that get the begging bowl out - not to every country in the world

[Noallegiance]

1 minute ago, CannonFodder said:

Is it the first in line that gets the bad deal or the last?

Say the EU needs energy this winter and US not providing the goods

It wants russian oil back but bear cupboard is bare and sri lanka has that supply

Russia can supply oil gas wheat to the first half of countries that get the begging bowl out - not to every country in the world

What a tangled web that has been woven.

[Axeman123]

15 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Fuck me you wouldn't want to be in their position; About as desperate as desperate can be with the begging bowl out to the Russian government.

At least they have a naval base with strategic value to offer, presumably many more countries will have the same begging bowl soon - and many won't have anything to trade.

[ThoughtCriminal]

39 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Whcih video is this TC?Can you psot a link,sounds interesting.

 

This goes back to  @M S E Refugee said yesterday about the West looking like 'stone cold losers' at the minute.Same goes for Joe.When your party's own Big tech is openly mocking you,it's over.

Just over an hour. Well worth it.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Can't find the post now but did someone on here say they had 50% of cash in CHF? Considering doing similar while I'm waiting for financial Armageddon, given the lack of options for decent inflation hedge.

 

If all currencies are dog shit then maybe it's a question of finding the least shit one. Any recommendations for best foreign currency account?

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, JMD said:

DB, when you mention the thread should maintain its laser focus on asset allocation, would that still mean selecting and buying mainly from the 'de-complex' sectors, including assets and companies? Especially if low debt, good fcf, price makers (not price takers)?      

Yes very much,but we have to consider the huge risks here in the UK so we want maybe more earning outside of sterling.Like BAT for instance,a huge sterling hedge.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Plan-b said:

DB do you think given the state of the nation today that the housing road map you did at the end of May has changed at all? 

 

Im expecting lots of pain for the leveraged thats for sure.Government props wont stop whats coming.

[HousePriceMania]

7 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Can't find the post now but did someone on here say they had 50% of cash in CHF? Considering doing similar while I'm waiting for financial Armageddon, given the lack of options for decent inflation hedge.

 

If all currencies are dog shit then maybe it's a question of finding the least shit one. Any recommendations for best foreign currency account?

Durham Born just mentioned about buying foreign stocks, good idea. I'd avoid the EU tho 🤣🤣🤣

 

Next up, you need to look at this differently. 

 

Get some fixed rate debt and take the free money... If you think there won't be a deflationary collapse of course. 

 

I have an interactive broker account and held various currencies, maybe a bit early, but easy to do. 

 

[sancho panza]

8 hours ago, moneyscam said:

Deutschland unter alles rather than uber alles. With the first current account deficit since 1992 there has to be at least one sentient being there who understands the monumental scale of their sanctions fuck up as we all predicted here months ago.

Be interested to hear fom anyone living in the Eurozone as to the blind faith in the EU's Ukraine policy.

From what I'm seeing from the people I nromally monitor for covid compliance,I'm seeing no realsiation yet that the poo is about to hit the fan.

8 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Yep, fair reasoning, Im not accounting for political stupidity enough, my comment was more about production rolling over! I should really look at Germany, I said there is no way they can replace Russian gas without inducing a depression. And there they go, inducing a depression. Trade surplus is gone, and that's with importing less gas: they are just crushing their economy.

And that's with the Euro cheap relative to the dollar. What happens if the dollar turns down? They might need to start using their gold too.

Even after being scarred by watching public health authorities using the equivalent of a sledgehammer to crush an airborne virus over the last two years,I completely failed to appreciate there were actually greater depths our politcal elite could plumb in pursuit of the poverty of theri electorates.

8 hours ago, moneyscam said:

Thanks, one of my markers for the BK as posted earlier in this thread. I think FX market is pricing in severe Euro recession if not outright depression. This then throws Euro sovvy spreads over Bund into sharp focus hence why ECB announced program to manage these spreads a few weeks ago. It will be like a Draghi 'whatever it takes' redux and they can print an infinite amount to keep Italian BTP spreads capped however that will be at the expense of the Euro.

Half my wealth is currently held in CHF to hedge my sterling portfolio and currency risk and I'm convinced that if the fiat system survives CHF will be one of the clear winners versus the £, $ and euro.

CHF is a good call.We've gently moved into decomplex dollar hedges for 80% of the portfolio over the last few years.Last week we even moved some more cash into PM's because the burn rate for sterling is now near 10%.We'll take our chances witht eh yellow stuff rather than £ sterling thank you very much.

I am still trying to work out how the ECB is hoping to manage the mulitple threats to the stability of the eurozone,Italy/Germany being the main protagonists that amtter.

[sancho panza]

15 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Can't find the post now but did someone on here say they had 50% of cash in CHF? Considering doing similar while I'm waiting for financial Armageddon, given the lack of options for decent inflation hedge.

 

If all currencies are dog shit then maybe it's a question of finding the least shit one. Any recommendations for best foreign currency account?

Saxo,interactive investor,intereactive brokers all do very handy multi currency accounts.

 

Cheers for the video TC.

 

[HousePriceMania]

If you think the BK is coming you can short shares on IB. 

 

Its not for everyone but its been a winner for me shorting estate agents, property ashstes and apple. 

They're paying for 1 of skiing holidays this winter... Which BTW.. 1 was same prices as 5 years ago and 1 is pretty much the same as March 2020 but with less service.

I tried to buy a ski apartment in Italy and haven't yet got the price I can live with but the agent says they're trying to "restructure prices' and I can see some big drops, 30%, on some places Ive watched for 2 years 

[sancho panza]

Looks like US resi has peaked for this cycle.The transactional proof will be some months away.Interesting noentheless.

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/07/01/housing-bubble-getting-ready-to-pop-pending-sales-plunge-in-june-homes-listed-for-sale-jump-price-reductions-spike-amid-holy-moly-mortgage-rates/

Housing Bubble Getting Ready to Pop: Pending Sales Plunge in June, Inventory Jumps, Price Reductions Spike amid Holy-Moly Mortgage Rates

Active listings jumped for two reasons:

ONE, pending sales in June plunged by 16% year-over-year, after the 12% drop in May, and the 9% drop in April, as potential buyers lost interest in sky-high home prices and holy-moly mortgage rates.

TWO, new listings rose in June to 562,000 homes, the second highest June in recent years, behind only June 2019. And interestingly, new listings rose in June, when in normal years they peaked in May and dropped in June. I circled the prior Junes (data via realtor.com).

[ste]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

Fuck me you wouldn't want to be in their position; About as desperate as desperate can be with the begging bowl out to the Russian government.

Looking like they are in trouble anyway and only getting worse, might as well give it a go.

Not sure of the political elements in that area but Russia could build up some goodwill in that region in a move away from the west and build ties out east for peanuts, could work out well for both.

[King Penda]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Can't find the post now but did someone on here say they had 50% of cash in CHF? Considering doing similar while I'm waiting for financial Armageddon, given the lack of options for decent inflation hedge.

 

If all currencies are dog shit then maybe it's a question of finding the least shit one. Any recommendations for best foreign currency account?

Pasta 

[Errol]

 

[desertorchid]

5 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Yes, me too, a different quality of person altogether. That lady and her husband had been through the war just 15 years earlier, it shows in her independence and toughness. Hard times create strong people.

We're obviously at the 4th stage now, I for one am looking forward to the hard times coming washing away all the nonsense, and having my son come of age in stage 1, hopefully as a strong man.

Never been so sure about this quote. Half of my grandads generation seemed wrecked.

Maybe more along the lines of hard times create humble men is true. There was certainly less arrogance and entitlement in previous gens

[Democorruptcy]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

My wind up lantern came today,no more standing floor lamp on for me on a night burning leccy,iv also replaced my tropical fish with danios,they dont need a heater 

 

Make sure it's fully charged before the power cut, if it's anything like my wind-up torches you will get repititive strain injury trying to keep the light on. I also have a wind-up radio with a little solar panel on top. It works well but the damn thing is all sticky now because I left it on the window bottom in the sun and it started melting!

[Loki]

5 hours ago, snaga said:

I like your optimism, but I think we are only on the verge of entering stage 4, and it's likely to last more than 25 years. I hope I'm wrong.

It is my opinion we still need to have the mass deaths that the solution that is always touted (Communism) seems to entail.  Perhaps that is too tin foil hat - but it is my opinion none the less

[Chewing Grass]

2 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I was going to post a Guardian link on Sunday, but it locked me out for some reason. HSE and Gas Safe have reported that gas safety inspections have fallen by a third in the last year, due to the cost of living crises. This ties in with my experience , told me wife only a week ago, that I was looking at 30% less work this year.

Not noticed any new small building works commonly know as extensions going up round me this year, last year they were like the plague.

Even the local redeveloper that usually gets 1950s 3 bed detached and turns they into 5 bed ones with a new frontage seems to have run out of steam, his pickups used to be everywhere.

Poof, its gone.

My mother has even got somebody to repoint her house after nobody turning up for months.

[King Penda]

7 minutes ago, desertorchid said:

Never been so sure about this quote. Half of my grandads generation seemed wrecked.

Maybe more along the lines of hard times create humble men is true. There was certainly less arrogance and entitlement in previous gens

Arogence is an interesting skill and yes it can be a trait for the good I’ve been called arogent for my attitude towards benifits I’m the first to admit I should be humble has I receive them however I’m quite happy to goad those on them that claim they are starving and I’m quote happy to gloat over how much I get for doing fuck all .I’m here to educate both sides in short and if I piss people off from either camp so be it what I won’t do is lie 

[belfastchild]

12 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Make sure it's fully charged before the power cut, if it's anything like my wind-up torches you will get repititive strain injury trying to keep the light on. I also have a wind-up radio with a little solar panel on top. It works well but the damn thing is all sticky now because I left it on the window bottom in the sun and it started melting!

Replaced the rechargeable battery in my small pull/solar torch last week.

[Democorruptcy]

11 hours ago, Starsend said:

Consider limiting how much you put into your SIPP and favour your ISA instead

I've been doing that, partly through circumstance because I have no taxable income. Although I'm beginning to wonder how long ISAs will last. I think NS&I is under attack from banks via the Trojan Horse, CEO Ian Ackerley (Ex-Barclays). Their Cash ISA is paying 0.35% with a base rate of 1.25%. They are doing all they can to drive money away from NS&I and Cash ISAs in general are ridiculously low rates. It's soon going to come to the "what's the point of Cash ISA's now?" If Cash ISAs go then the next question will be "Why allow tax free Stocks & Shares ISAs?" Given NS&I only raised £4.4bn last year with a £6bn target, it might also be "What's the point of NS&I now?" Then a lot of money previously intended for Cash or Share ISAs will all be at banks subject to the £85k FSCS, without the NS&I 100% backed by the Treasury and subject to a Bail In.

[King Penda]

13 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I've been doing that, partly through circumstance because I have no taxable income. Although I'm beginning to wonder how long ISAs will last. I think NS&I is under attack from banks via the Trojan Horse, CEO Ian Ackerley (Ex-Barclays). Their Cash ISA is paying 0.35% with a base rate of 1.25%. They are doing all they can to drive money away from NS&I and Cash ISAs in general are ridiculously low rates. It's soon going to come to the "what's the point of Cash ISA's now?" If Cash ISAs go then the next question will be "Why allow tax free Stocks & Shares ISAs?" Given NS&I only raised £4.4bn last year with a £6bn target, it might also be "What's the point of NS&I now?" Then a lot of money previously intended for Cash or Share ISAs will all be at banks subject to the £85k FSCS, without the NS&I 100% backed by the Treasury and subject to a Bail In.

A bail in would worry me if I had the money some of you guys have .cash under the mattress or in a bank is indeed loosing 10% or so at the moment due to inflation.but if you only  have 10k you’ve only got to squirrel 1k extra a year and your treading water .so in short if you have 100k in cash you’ve got to find 10k extra or save it and if you’ve got 10k it’s 1k a year extra to save to avoid the same fate.if you have elderly parents who struggle around the house but are to proud to claim anything now is the time to look into if they are entitled to anything they might thank you in time some are not means tested 

[DurhamBorn]

43 minutes ago, King Penda said:

A bail in would worry me if I had the money some of you guys have .cash under the mattress or in a bank is indeed loosing 10% or so at the moment due to inflation.but if you only  have 10k you’ve only got to squirrel 1k extra a year and your treading water .so in short if you have 100k in cash you’ve got to find 10k extra or save it and if you’ve got 10k it’s 1k a year extra to save to avoid the same fate.if you have elderly parents who struggle around the house but are to proud to claim anything now is the time to look into if they are entitled to anything they might thank you in time some are not means tested 

Im currently waiting on Attendance Allowance for my dad,il then claim carers allowance,£150 a week roughly between the two,we are going to use it for the kids,they are working etc so gets them most tax back.I should really make up a bullshit CV and go for a job with the council or housing association and just drop on the sick after a day and wait 6 months before they sack me.Government is the enemy of decent people and should be treated as such.

 

[Barnsey]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im expecting lots of pain for the leveraged thats for sure.Government props wont stop whats coming.

The assault on holiday homes continues!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/07/04/welsh-councils-allowed-cap-number-second-homes/

Welsh councils will be able to cap the number of second homes in their towns and villages, the Labour Government has announced.

Under the new plan, homeowners who want to offer short-term holiday lets, such as through Airbnb, will also require a licence. 

Local authorities in Wales have already been given the power to increase council tax on second homes by 300 per cent from next year.

In other news, just when we all thought things were fine again, I've been knocked for six by the C word, probably worst I've  been since first getting it in Jan 2020 which has been a nasty surprise. Going to be interesting to see how this plays out over next few weeks, great reason to get more people working from home for a bit during all the strikes etc.