Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)


spunko

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

 Well i sent the lyrics to Julie Andrews, and her people have arxed for a re-write...

I spat my drink out when I re-read that in her voice in my head

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 30k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Here in Australia it looks like house prices in the next major city are about to go negative.  Year on year Melbourne is now at -0.6% but Sydney has now just hit 0%.

On the quarterly figures Sydney at -5.3%, Melbourne at -3.4% and Brisbane now at -1%.

Adelaide and Perth still not negative on either metric but they're getting there given the daily moves being reported.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

$740 Billion "Inflation Reduction Bill" has just passed in the house.

Ho fucking ho.

Spend money to reduce inflation O.o

It could work here, if they built a load of nukes and subsidised fracking...but it's going to be more stimmies right. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 hours ago, Boon said:

Compare that to Sunak who is now groping around to see what can make him appeal to them, it'll be interesting if he decides to come out with a u-turn on something. He is finished in politics for the next few years otherwise.

12 months is a long time in politics, especially if the economy is going to shit.

If we do experience this predicted recession and energy crisis, Truss is going to be extremely unpopular with the general public and is odds on to be punted by nervous Tory MPs well before the GE in 2024.

It won't go to the membership if this happens and this is Sunak's only realistic route to the top job. He knows this and his backers are positioning him accordingly. They all know a monumental shitstorm is coming and are jockeying for positions. I doubt Truss will survive 12 months in No 10 if things get bad over winter. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

57 minutes ago, tank said:

12 months is a long time in politics, especially if the economy is going to shit.

If we do experience this predicted recession and energy crisis, Truss is going to be extremely unpopular with the general public and is odds on to be punted by nervous Tory MPs well before the GE in 2024.

It won't go to the membership if this happens and this is Sunak's only realistic route to the top job. He knows this and his backers are positioning him to be the saviour. They all know a monumental shitstorm is likely. 

Yup this was my thinking.

There is no way the public understands or is prepared to understand that rough has to come before the smooth. Far too much of the good times for far too long. They need to experience the rough first.

If the Tory members don’t get him in this time, she will made a springboard to get him in later down the line.

Why? Because I think we’re going fast forward from here and there’s no saving anything.

Give the public what they want like a Roman Emperor, bread and circuses. Placate them until it collapses and then say ‘We tried, now here’s the solution I’m afraid’   

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/15/tony-blair-launches-new-drive-digital-cards-tackle-illegal-immigration/

Blair will help direct things to stay on track. He’s as see through as a tart’s draws.

This despicable piece of shit luckily radiates his sheer hatred for the British population but they are wise to it. 

CC5D4AE3-135E-4F53-911B-73333B9896EE.thumb.jpeg.43dd4db5b946001dc296922172c5cdbe.jpeg

13AC493E-96A7-490E-A9EB-29102E56422A.thumb.jpeg.8329f051049244095e5da646c41a3992.jpeg
F38A5FC4-B4E6-4B3B-95C1-BECF5754644E.thumb.jpeg.4cd725b73678aa927497f90175b3822a.jpeg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

0C07A43F-8B3E-4D46-BC2F-AAE426D2FCA7.thumb.jpeg.9d204a35ebd0053d6977341ce6baa8bb.jpeg

Golds gone above $1801!

JP Morgan short team must have gone home early this weekend.

Watch the Asian open on Monday. It’s the best time to dump a load of paper contracts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, WICAO said:

Here in Australia it looks like house prices in the next major city are about to go negative.  Year on year Melbourne is now at -0.6% but Sydney has now just hit 0%.

On the quarterly figures Sydney at -5.3%, Melbourne at -3.4% and Brisbane now at -1%.

Adelaide and Perth still not negative on either metric but they're getting there given the daily moves being reported.

We intend to hold our Perth house through this downturn given it’s relative affordability/poor performance (depending on your perspective!) relative to the east coast from 2006 up until last year.

I found a 5 year graph but over a 15 year timeframe it would look very similar - better long term prospects but will undoubtedly be knocked around by interest rates in the near term.

 

0752DF54-454E-4C53-8411-53055D8EEF1D.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

We intend to hold our Perth house through this downturn given it’s relative affordability/poor performance (depending on your perspective!) relative to the east coast from 2006 up until last year.

I found a 5 year graph but over a 15 year timeframe it would look very similar - better long term prospects but will undoubtedly be knocked around by interest rates in the near term.

 

0752DF54-454E-4C53-8411-53055D8EEF1D.png

I thought Perth house prices went crazy during the mining boom in the early parts of the last decade?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

We intend to hold our Perth house through this downturn given it’s relative affordability/poor performance (depending on your perspective!) relative to the east coast from 2006 up until last year.

I found a 5 year graph but over a 15 year timeframe it would look very similar - better long term prospects but will undoubtedly be knocked around by interest rates in the near term.

 

0752DF54-454E-4C53-8411-53055D8EEF1D.png

I'm in the process of building our modest energy efficient home with cash savings.  I'm also just getting on with it as best I can in amongst both the headwinds and tailwinds that come with the current market. 

At the end of the day shelter is in the bottom rung of Maslow's pyramid. We all need it and now that we think we've found the country we want to live long term and with us being absolutely sick of Landlords and Letting Agents it's time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, WICAO said:

Here in Australia it looks like house prices in the next major city are about to go negative.  Year on year Melbourne is now at -0.6% but Sydney has now just hit 0%.

On the quarterly figures Sydney at -5.3%, Melbourne at -3.4% and Brisbane now at -1%.

Adelaide and Perth still not negative on either metric but they're getting there given the daily moves being reported.

Congratulations to the people of Sydney and Melbourne, thoughts and prayers for those of Brisbane Adelaide and Perth at this difficult time.

3 hours ago, tank said:

It won't go to the membership if this happens and this is Sunak's only realistic route to the top job.

I don't understand how that could work.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

baffledbyzirp

Along with domestic house prices, the resale market for luxury watches and handbags has also started to exhibits signs of atrophy with China at the heart of the current correction.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/boom-time-over-rolex-prices-crash-china

The premiums on some models offered by AP, Patek and Rolex were ridiculous creating enormous FOMO and huge demand at Authorised Dealerships. In some cases the price differential between AD and Grey Market Dealers was tenfold. 

In World War II and the October Revolution people were prepared to exchange wrist watches, Faberge trinkets and gold jewellery for safe passage or food. In China it seems that the confidence of the population, expressed via tasteless displays of conspicuous consumption, are ending abruptly. Money shouts while wealth whispers. Are we descending Lazlo's pyramid of needs? If so the gaudy crap that motivates virtually all the contributors to Instagram will represent insanity in coming years.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It would be extremely embarrassing for the Tories to vote a leader in and then do a vote of confidence 12 months later. Not that I can see it happening, even Boris had a period when he was solid. 

Sure the public are going to be pissed off with her, and odds-on there will be social unrest. But IMO she is enacting the policies that many in the party want. I think no MPs are gonna say it but what is the point of handing out loads of cash to people, if they aren't gonna vote for you anyway? 

I think the most likely outcome is Labour winning at the next GE but with a hung parliament it might be real difficult to bring much genuine change in.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Boon said:

It would be extremely embarrassing for the Tories to vote a leader in and then do a vote of confidence 12 months later. Not that I can see it happening, even Boris had a period when he was solid. 

Sure the public are going to be pissed off with her, and odds-on there will be social unrest. But IMO she is enacting the policies that many in the party want. I think no MPs are gonna say it but what is the point of handing out loads of cash to people, if they aren't gonna vote for you anyway? 

I think the most likely outcome is Labour winning at the next GE but with a hung parliament it might be real difficult to bring much genuine change in.

 

and i don't see how anyone would want to be the third PM in one term a year ahead of an election when the government is so unpopular it needs a third PM. Unless Rishi really is that dumb.  If they do that, then they really want to lose. 

but frankly i can't see how anyone can predictions on the next GE now.  

We've the midterms and whatever shenanigans that brings along with a potential FED pivot, Xi's third term and Russia / Ukraine all playing out, over the next 3 to 6 months.  Those will impact the direction of British politics more than anything Truss does.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

I thought Perth house prices went crazy during the mining boom in the early parts of the last decade?

Indeed, it’s been volatile, the ensuing mining bust (circa 2014-2017) resulted in prices giving it all back and more.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

M S E Refugee
46 minutes ago, baffledbyzirp said:

Along with domestic house prices, the resale market for luxury watches and handbags has also started to exhibits signs of atrophy with China at the heart of the current correction.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/boom-time-over-rolex-prices-crash-china

The premiums on some models offered by AP, Patek and Rolex were ridiculous creating enormous FOMO and huge demand at Authorised Dealerships. In some cases the price differential between AD and Grey Market Dealers was tenfold. 

In World War II and the October Revolution people were prepared to exchange wrist watches, Faberge trinkets and gold jewellery for safe passage or food. In China it seems that the confidence of the population, expressed via tasteless displays of conspicuous consumption, are ending abruptly. Money shouts while wealth whispers. Are we descending Lazlo's pyramid of needs? If so the gaudy crap that motivates virtually all the contributors to Instagram will represent insanity in coming years.

 

 

I sold all my Rolex and Tudor Watches a few months ago, thanks to this thread I could see what was coming.

The proceeds have been converted to Silver although the Watch habit is difficult to break so I bought a 9 carat gold Nivada Watch from the 1960's for £146 at auction.

The Gold case will probably be worth more than what I paid.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I sold all my Rolex and Tudor Watches a few months ago, thanks to this thread I could see what was coming.

The proceeds have been converted to Silver although the Watch habit is difficult of  break so I bought a 9 carat gold Nivada Watch from the 1960's for £146 at auction.

The Gold case will probably be worth more than what I paid.

I can see panic sales of camper vans and convertible cars this autumn/winter, looking forward to finding a bargain or 2

Link to comment
Share on other sites

M S E Refugee

I have decided to become a shipping magnate this week and I am buying NVG, Dorian LPG, ZIM,DHT and Frontline, the Tanker Stocks are as bonkers as Junior Miners and pay insane dividends when things are going well.

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/lpg/dividend-history

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/zim/dividend-history

Aristotle-Onassis.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

I can see panic sales of camper vans and convertible cars this autumn/winter, looking forward to finding a bargain or 2

We sold a convertible and bought a van instead, flexibility for work in hard times is more important at the moment. Only a cheapy though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

I can see panic sales of camper vans and convertible cars this autumn/winter, looking forward to finding a bargain or 2

Houses will be empty and people living in the warm vans on the drive. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

I have decided to become a shipping magnate this week and I am buying NVG, Dorian LPG, ZIM,DHT and Frontline, the Tanker Stocks are as bonkers as Junior Miners and pay insane dividends when things are going well.

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/lpg/dividend-history

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/zim/dividend-history

Aristotle-Onassis.jpg

Don't forget the oil refiners?

I'm specifically looking at the US refiners, 45 years since last one built there apparently. Plus if European energy costs remain high compared to the far lower US energy input costs for their own industrial sector, surely must result in massive competitive advantage. 

 

Ref the above energy costs. I'm actually wondering, and concerned investment wise, how companies like BASF and Evonik will successfully sell their products internationally and competitively. Domestically, Germany will I guess support. But longer term - will it result in a panic 'Fortress Europe' economic model?

 @DurhamBornsaid recently that he was buying Evonik, I wonder if he has thoughts about the increased energy costs for Europe/EU industry in general?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...