Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

F'n...ing hell...just logged into my HL, Gordon Bennett!

 

i'm up my all time high now  + 52% !!!

 

EVEN my shell that i started buying around 20 quid like some nitwit ...GOOD job I averaged down and bought MORE when all was panicking! ....these alone are UP now for me 40%!

 

with all the HO-HA in the world this is incredible!

 

PLUS we ain't even stepped into Uncle Dave's MEGA MELT-UP Yet!

 

At this rate i'll be paying for everybodies room at the meet/piss UP!

 

HECK...at this rate I'll even pick ya ALL up and pay for the hired bus, OR soon to be purchased helicopter!

 

EVEN macbeth hit 80p a few days ago! I'm only down now 18% on 'em!

 

[kibuc]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I've been watching to see if the Coronavirus Act 2020 is going to roll off the books entirely in March. It isn't, predictably, but David Davis just made an interesting observation on Twitter:

What's that bit about Johnson having created 25y fix mortgages? Is there a new scheme I missed a memo about?

[planit]

 

That will teach Putin for invading an entire country.

 

On other news POLY is going up faster than it went down  

 

[Agent ZigZag]

26 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

The current sell off in Russian securites is a buying opportunity. The EU will be signing more gas contracts with Russia before next winter.

I agree I added to Jp Morgan Russian securities. I have also of late been adding to Pan American Silver. I'm feel very alone on this stock.

 

[Democorruptcy]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv sold my ladder in HL for a quick 8%,im not a trader,but couldnt resist 

Classic pump and dump!

[Jesus Wept]

@sancho panza just looking back through this thread - have you done any coma score work on the telecom sector - I cannot find it?

Much obliged if anyone can dig it out. I am sure I’ve seen it. Can only find the one on baccy companies…

[JMD]

REITS are mentioned on here from time to time. Here is lots of free data on REITS, 'their top 7' plus spreadsheet download of a further 200! Ok the company is ultimately trying to sell their own service, but this is a free resource and also doesn't require you to sign-up.                                                                                            https://www.suredividend.com/reit-list/

[Democorruptcy]

Governbankment and their 'big bang' from the insurance sector:

Quote

 

The question I know you’ll be asking is ‘What do our proposed reforms mean in practice?’

Well, firstly, they will involve a substantial reduction in the risk margin… including a cut of around 60-70% for long-term life insurers.

Secondly, there will be a reassessment of the fundamental spread used to calculate the matching adjustment, in order to better reflect its sensitivity to credit risk.

Thirdly, we will introduce a significant increase in flexibility to allow more investment in long-term assets such as infrastructure, the hardware which makes economic growth possible.

And, fourthly, we want a major cut in the EU-derived regulations which make up the current reporting and administrative burden.

There’s work still to be done to fully estimate the impact of these reforms. But I expect there to be a material capital release… possibly as much as 10% or even 15% of the capital currently held by life insurers… allowing them to put tens of billions of pounds into long-term productive assets, with multiple benefits country-wide.

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/speech-by-john-glen-mp-economic-secretary-to-the-treasury-to-the-association-of-british-insurers-annual-dinner?

 

 

[Bobthebuilder]

11 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

@sancho panza just looking back through this thread - have you done any coma score work on the telecom sector - I cannot find it?

Much obliged if anyone can dig it out. I am sure I’ve seen it. Can only find the one on baccy companies…

He posted one up yesterday, did he not?

Had my chicken Kiev for tea last night with a nice bottle of wine. Had a lie in this morning to find Russia making moves and you lot have all turned into day traders, what's going on?

Going to stick with beans on toast tonight.

 

[Lightscribe]

22 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Classic pump and dump!

One swallow doesn’t make a summer after all…

[kibuc]

As a person born in the Eastern Block, my first word was "mama" but my first full sentence was actually "we should nuke Russia from orbit and move on". Which I think is impressive, considering that Russia didn't come to be until 8 years later.

People who think that anything will ever change there should probably read some fucking books. It's a country where Stalin has a 51% approval rating.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-47975704

It's a caveman nation with modern weaponry.

[geordie_lurch]

Well OGZD is back to about what I sold all my laddered holdings in it if for yesterday even though the following tweet was made earlier   I will take that as a lesson and move on

 

[Ma2]

Lord Palmerston (Prime Minister in 1800's) was mentioned on a Grant Williams podcast when talking about the same geopolitics being played out over centuries.

"The policy and practice of the Russian Government has always been to push forward its encroachments as fast and as far as the apathy or want of firmness of other Governments would allow it to go, but always to stop and retire when it met with decided resistance and then to wait for the next favorable opportunity.” – Lord Palmerston

A book called The Grand Chessboard - American Primacy and it's Geostrategic Imperatives was recommended but I haven't got round to starting it yet.

[CannonFodder]

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/u-senators-want-put-brakes-160000983.html

In case anyone is interested, growing group in US wants to stop gas exports to Europe.

Keep the gas in US, lasts longer, better energy security and lower prices . AMERICA FIRST 🇺🇸

 

[Jesus Wept]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv sold my ladder in HL for a quick 8%,im not a trader,but couldnt resist 

Summary of todays action on H&L @DurhamBorntimed his day trade perfectly. Pay for  that new fence….

Hargreaves Lansdown shares fell 17 per cent this morning as investors swapped trading from home for a return to the office - eating into its profits.

The DIY investing platform revealed that reduced share trading volume and low interest rates resulted in a 20 per cent fall in profits in the secon dhalf of last year.
 

The FTSE 100 group, which now holds a market-leading 43.3 per cent market share of Britain’s consumer investing sector, saw pre-tax profits fall to £151.2million in the six months to 31 December, down from £188.4million a year before. 

HL had been a significant beneficiary of the pandemic, as working from home Britons took up share trading in record numbers, but it said that net new business had fallen by 28 per cent.

Despite adding £2.32billion in new business in the six months to the end of 2021, there appears to be evidence of the DIY investing juggernaut's momentum beginning to slip.

HL is under pressure from rival DIY investing platforms pushing for growth, including Interactive Investor and AJ Bell, and new fee-free share dealing apps, such as Freetrade. 

However, HL’s total assets under administration – a key metric for a business of this kind – jumped 17 per cent over the six months to £141.2billion, while its client retention rate increased to 92.7 per cent.

But revenue slipped by 3 per cent year-on-year to £291.1million during the period, which HL attributed to lower share dealing revenue ‘as some of the more extreme trading volumes during Covid were not repeated and lower interest on client money’.

Hargreaves Lansdown earns interest on the cash that customers leave sitting in accounts uninvested, which although it is at a low rate is significant due to the substantial amounts held.

Chief executive Chris Hill noted that revenue for the period was ‘only slightly down on last year’, adding that the comparative period at end of 2020 was ‘unique… with market events like Vaccine Monday that drove record-breaking stockbroking volumes, along with very strong net new client growth and net new business’.
 

Hill said: ‘As management expected, this was not the case in 2021 and we also saw the full impact of the record low interest rates on our revenues.

‘However, the strong performance from fund platform fees (+21%) demonstrates the benefit of our diverse revenue streams and our ability to deliver under various market conditions.’
 

Elsewhere, the firm revealed its strategy for its ‘next phase of growth’, which will include £175million of investment in HL’s tech capabilities over the next five years and a plan to expand into wealth management.

It said: ‘Now is the right time to target the broader wealth management market and set a new standard for how the UK saves and invests.’ 
 

Hargreaves Lansdown shares were down 17 per cent in early trading to 1,074p - and are down a third over the past year. There was some good news for shareholders, however, as HL upped its interim dividend by 3 per cent to 12.26p per share.

Despite this morning’s significant share price decline, analysts at Peel Hunt maintained their buy rating for HL with a target price of 1,835p.

The analysts said: ‘Hargreaves’ interim results this morning were ahead of consensus expectations (adjusting for strategic investment costs), with the lower levels of profitability reflecting revenue headwinds from both trading activity and prevailing interest rates.

‘The business continues to generate high returns and retains a strong balance sheet (cash of £433million).’

They added that rising interest rates globally should bolster HL revenues.
The business does have strong long-term prospects, in our view, which should be improved given the strategic elements of today’s update, albeit at some short-term cost.’

[Joncrete Cungle]

3 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Don't forget the BoE will be introducing the Digital £ which will be one of many CBDCs in the near future which will be direct to us plebs and programmable - see this from Rishi

More importantly the following is a better explanation of why this is so bad for the plebs:

https://off-guardian.org/2021/10/01/programmable-digital-currency-the-next-stage-of-the-new-normal/

"Digital cash could be programmed to ensure it is only spent on essentials, or goods which an employer or Government deems to be sensible"

 

That will just create a black market where what is deemed sensible will be traded for what people really want. Years ago I had a part time job in a Spar shop. The dregs would use the milk tokens given to them to buy milk for their children, to buy milk / infant formula. Then hawk it round the estate door to door and sell / trade it for cigarette and booze.

[Libspero]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

That's fine, till US supply falters.

Is coal gas a practical solution? 

South America have plenty,  we have some of our own.  What would stop us just importing coal and pumping out town gas?  The process seems simple enough you could create gasification plants in not very much time.  It would also provide security of supply of ammonia and CO2. 

[moneyscam]

Great insightful conversation with Jeremy Grantham of GMO. Worth the half hour watch as it touches on the themes of this thread. He classes the current market as a 'super bubble' particularly the US whose time is running out.

 

[Lightscribe]

7 minutes ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

That will just create a black market where what is deemed sensible will be traded for what people really want. Years ago I had a part time job in a Spar shop. The dregs would use the milk tokens given to them to buy milk for their children, to buy milk / infant formula. Then hawk it round the estate door to door and sell / trade it for cigarette and booze.

We’ve discussed this before on here. That’s exactly why alongside that you would need a Digital ID and social credit score.

Everything will be tracked, monitored and accounted for.

It’s not much of a stretch to go to the next stage through smartphones and watches.

https://pubchem.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/patent/US-2020279585-A1

[Barnsey]

Have some of that plebs! How many customers on plans of just £8 a month you reckon? (Except me of course)

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

23 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

We’ve discussed this before on here. That’s exactly why alongside that you would need a Digital ID and social credit score.

Everything will be tracked, monitored and accounted for.

It’s not much of a stretch to go to the next stage through smartphones and watches.

https://pubchem.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/patent/US-2020279585-A1

 

*BUT*...YOU forgot about folks like me (some don't even own a mob!) who REFUSE to buy a new modern smart phone?

 

P.S. I'm VERY happy with my 20 year old mobile!

 

 

[Don Coglione]

4 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

*BUT*...YOU forgot about folks like me (some don't even own a mob!) who REFUSE to buy a new modern smart phone?

 

P.S. I'm VERY happy with my 20 year old mobile!

 

 

Easy. Much like the unvaxxed, you will simply be denied an ever-increasing range of services.

No booze, for starters (see Canada, Australia et al).

PS great phone!

[CannonFodder]

Thinking of going off the booze myself as hate the thought of giving this gov the extra taxes in duty and supporting this rotten system. 

Is this too extreme?

[Chewing Grass]

3 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

Thinking of going off the booze myself as hate the thought of giving this gov the extra taxes in duty and supporting this rotten system. 

Is this too extreme?

Yes, just shift to lower strength stuff or brew it yourself.

[BadAlchemy]

I feel a bit dirty today buying stocks in a country with a corrupt regime where they hold rigged elections, have tyrants and dictators running the country, overreach into other nations territory and sovereignty, censor free speech and seize individuals assets if they dare to speak out against the state, place people under house arrest for no good reason at all, and carry out illegal medical experiments on their citizens. But enough talk of my US, Canadian, UK, and EU share holdings...

On a more positive note, I did manage to pick up some Gazprom this morning for $6.84. May get some.more if it goes much lower.