Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Harley]

14 minutes ago, MithrilVest said:

For the folk buying Gazprom, are you buying OGZD or GAZ - probably OGZD?

I go direct to the Moscow exchange.  A bit puzzled with the price action as today is a holiday and the exchange is closed!  Must be yesterday's plus after hours.

[jamtomorrow]

A reason to steer well clear of LBMA/COMEX vaults I hadn't thought of ...

 

[Noallegiance]

I can't help but notice $1900 gold seems to be sticking.

Potential for resistance to turn into support. 

[Bricormortis]

40 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I can't help but notice $1900 gold seems to be sticking.

Potential for resistance to turn into support. 

Yes some grounds for optimism but it should be noted commercials ( banks ) have substantial short positions still. Things might become clearer in terms of direction of travel for PMs after March is gone, for various reasons. In my opinion. 

I did put a first ladder into physical platinum today for a bit of diversification. not a recommendation though.

[BadAlchemy]

1 hour ago, MithrilVest said:

For the folk buying Gazprom, are you buying OGZD or GAZ - probably OGZD?

I bought the OGZD. I believe Gazprom Neft is the owned subsidiary company that produces oil, whereas Gazprom itself is the gas producing company. Happy to be corrected on that...

Harley is very wise to go via the Moscow exchange. I have only put a small amount in via the secondary listing in London. Could get sanctioned/suspended/delisted?

From the 'fearless journalists' at the Grauniad...

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/feb/22/russian-sanctions-who-has-been-hit-and-who-might-be-next

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

On a slightly different subject, as I’ve mentioned over the years, I was collecting ‘junk’ silver and pre-1920 silver coins for below spot.

I used to be able to get a Victorian crown for roughly £17 or slightly below. Now the standard price is around the £40 mark.

Just shows how the VAT now put on silver has effected the price of junk physical (as well as physical moving away from paper price)

 

It's an interesting topic. Do you think the term 'junk' silver really only applies to US coins, because US coins (were made and) still exist in such huge quantities, and so there is no additional 'coin collectors premium' for most US silver coinage? Ie the actual value is only really after when melted down as scrap (for purposes of discussion I'm discounting any future armageddon barter value!), whereas British, German, Indian, etc silver coins also have premium value for the collectors market? 

[Bricormortis]

Ukraine sanctions : so we have closed a pipeline that to date has supplied zero gas. We are keeping nord stream 1 open. Oligarchs given advance notice of what was to be. Did anything really change ?

[Bricormortis]

Re Ukraine, Taiwan must be bricking it now.

[Democorruptcy]

A friend just got their new tax code for year and asked me to check the tax paid on their pension. I noticed their pension scheme has increases of RPI (maximum 2.5%) from 2008.

[Craig]

4 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Canada update via Jordan Peterson - thanks to @Long time lurking who posted this in another thread

Contrarian view - is it deliberate as some on Twitter are hypothesising... could TPTB be trying to cause instability in traditional banks so they can 'save' the system with their new Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs)

 

It's certainly possible. Here's Ripple's then-CEO Cory Johnson meeting with Justin Trudeau a couple of years back:

[JMD]

24 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Ukraine sanctions : so we have closed a pipeline that to date has supplied zero gas. We are keeping nord stream 1 open. Oligarchs given advance notice of what was to be. Did anything really change ?

Technically it hasn't been closed, rather Its 'certification has been suspended'! 

[Lightscribe]

40 minutes ago, JMD said:

It's an interesting topic. Do you think the term 'junk' silver really only applies to US coins, because US coins (were made and) still exist in such huge quantities, and so there is no additional 'coin collectors premium' for most US silver coinage? Ie the actual value is only really after when melted down as scrap (for purposes of discussion I'm discounting any future armageddon barter value!), whereas British, German, Indian, etc silver coins also have premium value for the collectors market? 

Yup ‘junk’ is really just a term for the US coinage but applies here for scrap broken jewellery, spoons, cups, bowels etc.

I’ve been collecting pre-1920 coins for collector value and adding to my physical silver pile of my pre-VAT purchases of Britannias and Queens beast, (fruit bowls, candlesticks etc) I even have a boxing trophy, beer tankard from the 1920s Army vs RAF, you wouldn’t of known it however as it was black when I got it and I cleaned it up.

I figured also if SHTF instead of flakes of gold, silver threepences could make a comeback for smaller purchases in a hyperinflation scenario (silver composition/weight easily certified). I can pretend to be a Victorian gentleman (I would certainly grow a moustache.)

[CannonFodder]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

I go direct to the Moscow exchange.  A bit puzzled with the price action as today is a holiday and the exchange is closed!  Must be yesterday's plus after hours.

This is outside of an isa? I dont think Moscow exchange is allowed within from what I read on HMRC. 

i think my gaz is german listed but i.m not 100% sure lol, i should really research better what i.m buying haha

[geordie_lurch]

5 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

This is outside of an isa? I dont think Moscow exchange is allowed within from what I read on HMRC. 

i think my gaz is german listed but i.m not 100% sure lol, i should really research better what i.m buying haha

The news isn't getting any better for Russian shares or anything relating to Ukraine IMHO

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17740075/russia-blood-medical-putin-ukrainian-weapons-warning/

"VLADIMIR Putin has warned "unparalleled" hypersonic missiles are ready for action and has been stockpiling blood, fuelling war fears. Troops have also been on the move amid concern Ukraine's second largest city, Kharkiv, could be next in his sights, as the country declares a state of emergency.

With a huge 200,000 strong force encircling Ukraine, the world is on a knife edge waiting for Putin's next move - which could see the bloodiest conflict in Europe since WW2.

Ukraine has now declared a state of emergency, allowing police to carry out random checks, and also announced all citizens will now be allowed to carry guns."

[CannonFodder]

1 minute ago, geordie_lurch said:

 

Ukraine has now declared a state of emergency, allowing police to carry out random checks, and also announced all citizens will now be allowed to carry guns."

So same as texas then

[CannonFodder]

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-economy/3410384-britain-ready-to-provide-ukraine-with-up-to-500m-in-loans-foreign-secretary.html

i see the taxpayer is adding to ukrainian positon so all good, they wouldnt risk our money if there was a real danger would they!

edit to add we also seem to have given them 3.5 billion already according to our own website, good to see our NI increase not being squandered

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-sets-out-new-multi-million-dollar-economic-package-of-support-for-ukraine

Only fair that ukraine uses some of this cash to buy from patriotic british companies run by patriotic people who believe in democracy so much they regularly donate to ruling parties, and hobnobs with the Bidens of the world.

Taps are opening, print for freedom, actual war no longer needed.

 

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, geordie_lurch said:

 

"Ukraine has now declared a state of emergency, allowing police to carry out random checks, and also announced all citizens will now be allowed to carry guns."

But masks and social distancing still in effect, with citizens asked to avoid shooting groups of Russians for fear of breach of the 2m rule when they collapse following being shot

[No One]

8 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

I should imagine the rest of the emergency services will follow to DC (which was good for me as I was able to funnel it where I wanted the last 10 years and the age related employer contributions have been 17%) shit for most however.
I’m hoping now I’ll be able to add it all to my SIPP. I’ve moved over to the DB whilst I can now which is still CPI linked where I am, to get as many years as I can there before it gets knocked on the head.

I imagine a new inflation index for the civil service will have to be ‘invented’ from 2022 or a cap as you say.

https://www.cspa.co.uk/news/1204/

 

what is db and dc

[BadAlchemy]

5 minutes ago, No One said:

what is db and dc

Defined Benefit and Defined Contribution.

[Joncrete Cungle]

5 minutes ago, No One said:

what is db and dc

Defined benefit pension and defined contribution pension.

[Plan-b]

Just couldn't resist it could they 

[Lightscribe]

25 minutes ago, No One said:

what is db and dc

DB is the richest man in Durham.

DC was never as good as Marvel.

[CannonFodder]

12 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Just couldn't resist it could they 

And the weather, putin did that too with his james bond weather machine in the basement. Medvedev is dressed as oddjob. These red weather warnings, russia is red, ah-ha.

Quick lets cut interest rates so our banks are more competitive than the ruasians! That will show him.

Seems the Russians will be the whipping boys for all the economic mismanagement and pain to come.

All domestic decisions would have worked out ok without the russian actions supporting a middle of nowhere place that they,ve been supporting anyway for the last 8 years. How could our domestic decision makers have foreseen that.

[Libspero]

3 hours ago, Bricormortis said:

Re Ukraine, Taiwan must be bricking it now.

“

You’re safe from invasion, China tells Taiwan

Amid warnings that Russia will invade Ukraine, Beijing attempts to reassure the Taiwanese people that they will not face the same fate”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/02/23/safe-invasion-china-tells-taiwan/

[ONC]

On 22/02/2022 at 16:29, moneyscam said:

Great insightful conversation with Jeremy Grantham of GMO. Worth the half hour watch as it touches on the themes of this thread. He classes the current market as a 'super bubble' particularly the US whose time is running out.

 

Thanks @Moneyscam really enjoyed listening to this. I remember seeing his video in 2021 calling a US “everything “bubble (too early again), now the bubble is much bigger.

In his previous video he talked about the “confidence termites” in the dot.com bubble in 2000. First the really craze companies collapsed, but SP500 held up. Six months  later The “termites” eat into the next layer,  then the next, finally eating into the confidence of blue chip SP500 companies, then big falls

Is this similar to now, the “confidence termites” have eaten into

1. Meme/Robin Hood stock maddness has ended

2. Crypto maddness seems to  have peaked, on way down

3. Developing tech companies ( eg Ark) have fallen hard.

4. Bigger tech companies down

will the “confidence termites” now eat into the wider market, like in 2000??

 

In this latest video, Jeremy says he thinks we have passed the peak of the excess/maddness. I am now getting that feeling too. The atmosphere is feeling less speculative/crazy/mad. 
 

I have been following David Hunter closely, but this video just got me thinking more. I start to doubt DH’s melt up. I am going to hedge my bets more and hold more cash. I liquidated 10% this morning, mainly PM mining stocks, which might be hit hard in any 1929 style collapse (still hold 20% PM miners).