Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[harp]

38 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

All Ukrainian air defences destroyed.

 

Ukrainian army offering no resistance, soldiers surrendering en masse.

 

America's end of empire phase is going to be hilarious.

Already seeing Ukrainian weapons for sale on eBay!

only dropped once….

[Sugarlips]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Great news today as a huge part of the reflation/distribution cycle lands.Tanks in Ukraine is superb news for the roadmap just as military events were predicted.Sometimes i do worry that people still focus on the short term liked most do when these events are exactly what we knew were likely if we were indeed at the end of the great dis-inflation.Its resulted in mass weakness in the west,and now capital will flow to inflation areas.Todays actions mean higher inflation,and thats crucial.

BP is a drag due to Russian connections,but the mid term affects on energy are much more important.

The west is seeing what happens when you concentrate on woke,single mothers,bennies and lunacy.

 

 

DaveH is doubling down on his oil topping out here and looking for a $60 a barrel correction. 

[nirvana]

Looking at Poly down 30%......

Who would have thought you could make SOOOOO much money playing with WAR eh?

Think I'll get high and have a massive wank later! 

 

[Majorpain]

33 minutes ago, Harley said:

Well I debated it and decided to leave my holdings on the table.  The losses would help lower my capital gains but not much as the tax is not huge.  I'm very tempted to sell JRS and HRUB (as who knows what rules they'll invoke) and let the rest ride but a calm head atm.  HL failed to execute stop losses!  Now back to my porridge.

PS:  I'm assuming the worst (cut off from Swift and maybe the exchange or at least some stocks) but I can wait a few years, plus I can't bear giving my money to the sharks. 

If they cut the Russians off from Swift how will the EU pay for all its gas and oil?  (Gold?) I think its important to remember that they can literally switch the lights off across much of Europe after stores run out, and make life distinctly difficult for those where they are still on.  Any retaliation will have the above in the back of the decision makers mind.

[nirvana]

EVRAZ - 47% divi now lol

[nirvana]

5 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

If they cut the Russians off from Swift how will the EU pay for all its gas and oil?

does anyone give a shit about swift anymore? I thought SEPA was much cheaper.....

and of course GET ON THE FUKKIN BLOCKCHAIN YOU MUPPETS! 

[Barnsey]

 

[Harley]

21 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Great news today as a huge part of the reflation/distribution cycle lands.Tanks in Ukraine is superb news for the roadmap just as military events were predicted.Sometimes i do worry that people still focus on the short term liked most do when these events are exactly what we knew were likely if we were indeed at the end of the great dis-inflation.Its resulted in mass weakness in the west,and now capital will flow to inflation areas.Todays actions mean higher inflation,and thats crucial.

BP is a drag due to Russian connections,but the mid term affects on energy are much more important.

The west is seeing what happens when you concentrate on woke,single mothers,bennies and lunacy.

It's hard to trust the price feeds but this is fascinating.  It's beginning to look like this has accelerated a number of technical trends already in play like energy companies down (had been weakening) for a probable pullback and PM miners and physical firming up on their breakouts.  Lots of greens today with just a few large reds.  Not advice (mad in the current situation) but I'm at me keyboard today, unlike last time.  I'm @DurhamBorn and I can do this!!!

Oh, and regarding HL, can I please have me spanking stick back!   

[Pip321]

26 minutes ago, CVG said:

Is POLY now suspended at 800? Tempted to buy a few k.

680p, now it truly is only for the brave. Good company but who know what happens to this share price. 

[geordie_lurch]

I'm very pleased I took a small loss on OGZD the other day and it seems Gazprom has been suspended in Russia too

A positive way to look at the above

 

[Plan-b]

1 minute ago, geordie_lurch said:

I'm very pleased I took a small loss on OGZD the other day and it seems Gazprom has been suspended in Russia too

 

GAZ dealing still OK on AJ Bell about half an hour ago

[Jesus Wept]

32 minutes ago, CVG said:

Is POLY now suspended at 800? Tempted to buy a few k.

Just bought at 664p @0855

Took a number of requotes. 

Laddering down.

Missed my ladders at 900p, 800p and 700p. 
 

Thank fuck. That’s my final ladder.

Reckon it will fall lower. We shall see.

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

All Ukrainian air defences destroyed.

I hope the air defence stuff Boris gave them is unscathed as he never took out a CDW and they're on his card!  

[Plan-b]

Any new western sanctions against Russia will surely/possibly include Russian shares? Not sure but would be an easy target and the west's politicians do like the easy options. 

[SpectrumFX]

4 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

Just bought at 664p @0855

Took a number of requotes. 

Laddering down.

Missed my ladders at 900p, 800p and 700p. 
 

Thank fuck. That’s my final ladder.

Reckon it will fall lower. We shall see.

 

I got 620p.

I saw it dip down to 612p just a little after.

That's a purchase I may regret later.

[geordie_lurch]

6 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

GAZ dealing still OK on AJ Bell about half an hour ago

 

[planit]

I doubt any country is going to want to be selling of their strategic oil reserves further now.

US under a billion barrels and there will be people pushing for it to be increased whilst there is still an oil supply shortage.

Should stop oil falling too much.

 

Germany shutting down it's nuclear plants looks like incompetence of the highest order.

Russia doesn't need Nordstrom if it has control of the Ukraine lines.

 

 

But at least EU is concentrating on the important things

EU Proposes New Law To Make Sure Suppliers Comply With ESG Standards

[Harley]

19 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

If they cut the Russians off from Swift how will the EU pay for all its gas and oil?  (Gold?) I think its important to remember that they can literally switch the lights off across much of Europe after stores run out, and make life distinctly difficult for those where they are still on.  Any retaliation will have the above in the back of the decision makers mind.

With China, the US banned a list of stocks (e.g. with alledged military links or ownership) from being held by US nationals (although some twat UK brokers applied it to Brits as well).

[Harley]

23 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

If they cut the Russians off from Swift how will the EU pay for all its gas and oil?  (Gold?) I think its important to remember that they can literally switch the lights off across much of Europe after stores run out, and make life distinctly difficult for those where they are still on.  Any retaliation will have the above in the back of the decision makers mind.

Yep, and that's my worst case scenario.

[geordie_lurch]

Just now, planit said:

Germany shutting down it's nuclear plants looks like incompetence of the highest order.

Russia doesn't need Nordstrom if it has control of the Ukraine lines.

I'm starting to think it wasn't incompetence but deliberate and the rumours that Angela Merkle might be Russia's greatest agent could be true. I also think that Putin being on the WEF young leader's programme could have been the perfect access he needed to see all of the West's weaknesses as he would be privy to all the WEF shit. I hope I'm wrong about both things otherwise Putin aint stopping with Ukraine

[moneyscam]

3 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

I got 620p.

I saw it dip down to 612p just a little after.

That's a purchase I may regret later.

Well if I was tempted by POLY at 1100 I certainly should be ripping their arms off at 680! Times like this are when you should be brave. Going to see now what price I can get, I expect bid / offer spreads will be wider than usual!

[DurhamBorn]

5 minutes ago, Harley said:

It's hard to trust the price feeds but this is fascinating.  It's beginning to look like this has accelerated a number of technical trends already in play like energy companies down (had been weakening) for a probable pullback and PM miners and physical firming up on their breakouts.  Lots of greens today with just a few large reds.  Not advice (mad in the current situation) but I'm at me keyboard today, unlike last time.  I'm @DurhamBorn and I can do this!!!

Oh, and regarding HL, can I please have me spanking stick back!   

These sort of actions confirm the roadmap is in play.Interesting the inflation and military stuff has come earlier than i had marked in.Could be my targets need adjusting up,but il wait on CB action.Risk here isnt Russia its the dollar going up,so i expect the Fed to get liquidity out into Europe etc.Iv bought ladders today in my asset manager targets.

Russia real message is that the west has let the backbone of its economy decline and now we can expect massive investment.Government will relax all kind of things to get capital from insurers etc into things.Inflation is now in a feedback loop.Jobs galore,wages etc,fiscal is going to run things not monetary,banks will be sidelined,governments will use insurers,pension funds etc instead.

 

[TNS]

1 minute ago, Cattle Prod said:

Spread has settled down now at around 692-694 for me.

Picked some at 740 so missed the bottom, final ladder at 600 and then pray.

[Jesus Wept]

30 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Spread has settled down now at around 692-694 for me.

I agree -  just looked at what real buy price would be @0915 = 694p  but didn’t press the BUY button. Not adding any more to my 668p purchase at 9am. Will stick with that.
 

So tricky to catch a falling knife. Was meant to have hit 621p at one stage this morning - impossible to time that.
Especially with H&L which I now understand the opinions of people saying they are shit ! 

[Majorpain]

15 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

I got 620p.

I saw it dip down to 612p just a little after.

That's a purchase I may regret later.

I'm getting funds together for some bottom feeding, i think they will get malleted again when Russia gets cut off from Swift.  The problem is whilst its the financial doomsday option for US, and they have played that card too many times for it to have any shock effect or even be effective with inevitable Russian countermeasures.