Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Noallegiance]

55 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

Did she have one of those wooden mushroom shaped things to shove in her tights as she sewed them up, my mum did, i remember it well.

Jesus is that a 1930s butt plug?

[sancho panza]

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Just bought a first ladder in Hargreaves,another one in Abrdn.I wasnt going to buy HL,but just over a tenner looks decent for a first ladder at about 4% yield.Iv set 3 more.The sector is in play for me,and the market thinks passive ETFs etc will destroy the asset managers,my roadmap shows distribution cycle a threat,but inflation and wealth transfers a big gain as the cycle develops.These are classic contrarian buys based on sentiment v roadmap work.Sector will likely consolidate down in time.Ladders needed though of course as timing bottom might be difficult.

I actually lowered a few Orange today for a decent 14% gain.Iv still got a big holding,but i hate that withholding tax 

Its great to see another part of the roadmap now happening,military etc,all down to the cycle.Inflation forces hands and encourages moves.It suits everyone in a reflation because every excuse needed is taken to explain away the reason prices are going up and up,,damn covid,damn Ruskies,damn Chinese..............

I jsut coma scored three fund managers you've mentioned on 2020 results and the scores on the doors are impressive.I scored the sector a 4 due to historical value levels and upside,which is supported by the scores across the 3 below.The sector looks to be good value.

              Chart  Income Balance Sheet FCF Sector Coma Score

ABRN     4        5             4                      2       4           =19

JUP        4       4              4                      4      4           =20

M+G      3        5              1                       5     4            =18

M+G carries their policy liabilites on their balance sheet hence the poor BS score,I'll have to look inot that tmrw if I get time.If I can sort that out M+G could be scoring 20+.

Looks a very interesting sector from a Basement dweller point of view,not least that there's some serious FCF getting thrown off without any serious insto moeny flowing in, jsut like the big goldies in may ways.

If you or anyone else can throw me some more names in the sector then I'd appreciate it.

 

[Democorruptcy]

9 hours ago, Loki said:

Good old AIM!

I bet this one had the aimers choking on their cornflakes yesterday morning, when a Covid drug trial gave poor results.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/s/synairgen-ord-gbp-0.01

[sancho panza]

5 hours ago, Jesus Wept said:

@sancho panza just looking back through this thread - have you done any coma score work on the telecom sector - I cannot find it?

Much obliged if anyone can dig it out. I am sure I’ve seen it. Can only find the one on baccy companies…

I psoted some yesterday,but a lot of these haven't reproted yet.ALso some of the big names eg BT and Vod full years finish in Mar so wn't report till June or so.I'll use some Jun 21 full years but as the year progresses to full year,the coma scores become more treacherous to use.

Telecoms still has some value,as does goldies,but nothing like last year.That's why I'm pleased to see these fund mangers looking like a reasonable place to purseu some retunrs.

 

[Loki]

@Democorruptcy Wow 

Sorry chaps no refunds

[jamtomorrow]

16 minutes ago, Berk said:

It’s extremely rare that I feel able to add anything to this fantastic thread, however, I’ve found that HL do offer 2FA.   It requires you to send a secure message or call them, more info in the link below.  

https://www.hl.co.uk/security-centre/the-security-of-your-hargreaves-lansdown-account

I can’t see why they don’t allow you to activate it simply via the app or through the website like many other platforms, given it’s importance, but in any case it’s well worth putting the additional layer of security in place.

Good info, cheers @Berk

Think I'll request TFA and then use it as an excuse to dither a bit and see if they manage OTP as well. Still have my concerns as to whether these annoyances are the tip of a bigger security iceberg, so I shan't be dithering too long!

[DurhamBorn]

9 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I jsut coma scored three fund managers you've mentioned on 2020 results and the scores on the doors are impressive.I scored the sector a 4 due to historical value levels and upside,which is supported by the scores across the 3 below.The sector looks to be good value.

              Chart  Income Balance Sheet FCF Sector Coma Score

ABRN     4        5             4                      2       4           =19

JUP        4       4              4                      4      4           =20

M+G      3        5              1                       5     4            =18

M+G carries their policy liabilites on their balance sheet hence the poor BS score,I'll have to look inot that tmrw if I get time.If I can sort that out M+G could be scoring 20+.

Looks a very interesting sector from a Basement dweller point of view,not least that there's some serious FCF getting thrown off without any serious insto moeny flowing in, jsut like the big goldies in may ways.

If you or anyone else can throw me some more names in the sector then I'd appreciate it.

 

Ashmore is the other i started buying as my smallest holding,then there is MAN,Quilter ,Schroders.M+G creates more shareholder funds than any other company in the FTSE,its a free cash machine.Risk is of course as ever derivatives.Abrdn and Jupiter dont have that problem.For fleshing out portfolios i think the sector offers some nice diversity.The cycle is distribution,but i think growth,tech,houses,cash and bonds will carry the strain of that.

[Transistor Man]

4 hours ago, Libspero said:

Is coal gas a practical solution? 

South America have plenty,  we have some of our own.  What would stop us just importing coal and pumping out town gas?  The process seems simple enough you could create gasification plants in not very much time.  It would also provide security of supply of ammonia and CO2. 

Coal water slurry fuel could be interesting. Has been proposed for use in gas turbines, and Diesel engines in the past. 

[sancho panza]

6 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

My 2c? This is all theatre. Putin will keep Donbass, which no one cares about, and saves face both sides, allowing a de escalation. The current sell off in Russian securites is a buying opportunity. The EU will be signing more gas contracts with Russia before next winter. And Nord Stream 2 will go ahead, but maybe to be transacted in dollars rather than the planned Euro.

I agree,I'm busy running ye olde slide rule over some Russian invesments.

On another matter,follwoing on from your comment ref Napier,I've spent 3 hours lsitening to a fascianting Joe Rogan interview with Majid Nawaz(British guy).Covered a lot of topics from Islamic extremism to covid mandates to freedom,but the realy fascinating part was towards the end where he delves in with some interesting points about digital currencies and how the UK govt is in a monetray policy corner-can't raise rates or it'll kill the debtors,has to raise rates to preserve the savers etc.

His overall point is one familair to many on here that covid wasa  preparation for a broader clamp down as the political elites have a simple chocie of admit the truth or fight it with force..

I've taken a leaf out of @Harley book and lsiten to these over a few days while driving,but this one was superb and right up our street.

 

[Berk]

7 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Good info, cheers @Berk

Think I'll request TFA and then use it as an excuse to dither a bit and see if they manage OTP as well. Still have my concerns as to whether these annoyances are the tip of a bigger security iceberg, so I shan't be dithering too long!

I sincerely hope there aren’t deeper issues but nothing would surprise me these days!  It would be good to hear if you have any joy on the OTP front.  Cheers!

[sancho panza]

9 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Ashmore is the other i started buying as my smallest holding,then there is MAN,Quilter ,Schroders.M+G creates more shareholder funds than any other company in the FTSE,its a free cash machine.Risk is of course as ever derivatives.Abrdn and Jupiter dont have that problem.For fleshing out portfolios i think the sector offers some nice diversity.The cycle is distribution,but i think growth,tech,houses,cash and bonds will carry the strain of that.

Many thanks,looks ripe for some spray n pray.

Mrs P is being taken off her final salary pension as we speak and having sat in on one of the calls with the pension adviser,I can affirm that the main beneficiaries of these savings plans won't be the pensioners.

She asked a couple of questions about inflation/US junk bond yields being negative in real terms etc and whether they had any funds that offered inflation protection and you coudl tell the guy knew,of the other 100 people on the call noone mentioned it..........

So if Mrs P is going to get mullered pension wise,then one way to counter that is to get expsoed to the firms who will be making a killing off her and her colleagues.It's truly shocking what's going to be done to savers/pensioenrs over the next ten years but that's been well covered down here in the dark by yourself and others.

[CannonFodder]

22 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Many thanks,looks ripe for some spray n pray.

Mrs P is being taken off her final salary pension as we speak and having sat in on one of the calls with the pension adviser,I can affirm that the main beneficiaries of these savings plans won't be the pensioners.

She asked a couple of questions about inflation/US junk bond yields being negative in real terms etc and whether they had any funds that offered inflation protection and you coudl tell the guy knew,of the other 100 people on the call noone mentioned it..........

So if Mrs P is going to get mullered pension wise,then one way to counter that is to get expsoed to the firms who will be making a killing off her and her colleagues.It's truly shocking what's going to be done to savers/pensioenrs over the next ten years but that's been well covered down here in the dark by yourself and others.

Tis always was the case, edit to add this was 1940

[Ma2]

4 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Everything will be tracked, monitored and accounted for.

It’s not much of a stretch to go to the next stage through smartphones and watches.

Perversely we may even profit from that. If this does well for the BG pension fund less likelihood of the Scottish Play having to inject cash into it

British Gas pension cash used to buy Israeli spyware group NSO

Energy supplier’s scheme was one of biggest investors in private equity fund that bought cyberweapon maker

https://www.ft.com/content/8b427be6-1025-4295-a25c-16374da53b79

Quite bizarre though

[JMD]

3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

 

I wonder if there'll be a movie one day,'Joe Biden,his son,his lap top and his sons work for a Ukrainian gas firm'.

It's already being made, starring Laurence Fox of the Reclaim Party...                                                                                https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10212465/First-photos-British-actor-Laurence-Fox-Hunter-Biden-white-powder-nose.html

[Lightscribe]

7 hours ago, Ma2 said:

Perversely we may even profit from that. If this does well for the BG pension fund less likelihood of the Scottish Play having to inject cash into it

British Gas pension cash used to buy Israeli spyware group NSO

Energy supplier’s scheme was one of biggest investors in private equity fund that bought cyberweapon maker

https://www.ft.com/content/8b427be6-1025-4295-a25c-16374da53b79

Quite bizarre though

Coincidentally my work revolves around mobile technology and security (as well as things like crypto). The NSO group consists of several Israeli companies. You may have heard of the Pegasus hack. The iPhone OS is very secure due to the Secure Enclave encryption keys and OS boot process (why jailbreaks are easily patched up). Android have recently employed a file based encryption (from full disk encryption) and secure startup, but is easily exploited.
There’s only a few companies in the world who would be able to get around the iPhone OS especially when the device is rebooted. So I’m well aware of what these companies specialities are and are used globally for various means, British Gas pension fund must see ‘value’ there (and they’re probably right)

Here’s some further info

https://www.techradar.com/uk/news/are-you-a-target-of-pegasus-spyware-get-an-iphone-and-stay-safe

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/18/nso-spyware-used-to-target-family-of-jamal-khashoggi-leaked-data-shows-saudis-pegasus

But no the Digital ID and interconnection in everyday life will be far less cloak and dagger. 
 

[Harley]

11 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Mrs P is being taken off her final salary pension as we speak....

I don't want to pry so please feel free to ignore but seeing as you mentioned it, can they just take someone off a final salary pension?  I have no knowledge of them but thought they were inviolate, unless you chose to move.

[CVG]

6 minutes ago, Harley said:

I don't want to pry so please feel free to ignore but seeing as you mentioned it, can they just take someone off a final salary pension?  I have no knowledge of them but thought they were inviolate, unless you chose to move.

They froze mine, and all further benefits accrued in a new DC scheme. 

[CannonFodder]

5 minutes ago, Harley said:

I don't want to pry so please feel free to ignore but seeing as you mentioned it, can they just take someone off a final salary pension?  I have no knowledge of them but thought they were inviolate, unless you chose to move.

I realise this wasnt directed to me but yes you can, happened to my partner a few years back, also happened to older colleagues.

Employers with trustees of a pension can at any time change the rules.

[Lightscribe]

49 minutes ago, Harley said:

I don't want to pry so please feel free to ignore but seeing as you mentioned it, can they just take someone off a final salary pension?  I have no knowledge of them but thought they were inviolate, unless you chose to move.

Yes they just move you on to the new scheme after a cut off date. In the emergency services, the fire brigade won at court (after some judges sorted themselves out first) in the unfairness of cut off age related threshold. They managed to get it all extended on the old scheme for a few years more.

No such problem for me of course. Although I’ve now switched to the Alpha career average scheme (at my higher pay threshold I’m on now) after being on Partnership for the last 10 years (I’m going to attempt to move this to my SIPP now payments will no longer be going in). Figured keeping up with CPI linked inflation at 1:43 this next decade or so has to be a winner (and due to my age). 

[DurhamBorn]

19 minutes ago, Harley said:

I don't want to pry so please feel free to ignore but seeing as you mentioned it, can they just take someone off a final salary pension?  I have no knowledge of them but thought they were inviolate, unless you chose to move.

They changed mine at GSK,but if you went on redundancy they boosted the years you had by 40% and got RPI increases so i made sure i got redundancy instead.Every year for 20 years my pension went up more in % terms than those still there as RPI was higher than their pay increases.It also meant i could transfer at the right time into my SIPP when 15 year gilts hit 0.5% where those still there cant and the door is almost closed on a transfer.

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

I don't want to pry so please feel free to ignore but seeing as you mentioned it, can they just take someone off a final salary pension?  I have no knowledge of them but thought they were inviolate, unless you chose to move.

She got in with 6 months to spare before all new joiners were put onto the defined contributions scheme.Now all those on the DB scheme are being moved onto the DC scheme(which from what I can see is going to get reamed by infaltion over the next decade).

There's been a consultation but basically the company can't afford it with rates on the floor as they are.

Worth noting as well that the inflation linkage is only 2.5% CPI so once you're in receipt,then the inflation erosion begins.

It was interesting tho that I set her up a couple of ISA's 2018/19/20 and have managed them with the help of the hive mind on here and have made some lucky moves into/out of gold and into oil at the bottom and her divi income is already nearly equal to her projected final salary payout(if she doesn't get promoted).

Truly staggering that so many are going to be funnelled into DC schemes where retirement dreams go to die.

Also,on the flip side,it's staggering what this thread has helped many people achieve for themselves.

[Joncrete Cungle]

I had a look at a friend's NEST pension their employer has put all staff below director level in. Looks to me like a recipe for a disaster down the line. I think the workplace pensions might pay a bit more than current state pension, but having one will exclude you from receiving a full state pension at some point in the future.

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, CannonFodder said:

I realise this wasnt directed to me but yes you can, happened to my partner a few years back, also happened to older colleagues.

Employers with trustees of a pension can at any time change the rules.

Huge amoutn of skilled talent there was effectively pension tied as nowhere else was offering DB scheme.She reckons loads will now move for better jobs.Her company really looks after staff well and invest heavily in talent.It says a lot that they canned their DB scheme despite what it will cost them operationally.

39 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

They changed mine at GSK,but if you went on redundancy they boosted the years you had by 40% and got RPI increases so i made sure i got redundancy instead.Every year for 20 years my pension went up more in % terms than those still there as RPI was higher than their pay increases.It also meant i could transfer at the right time into my SIPP when 15 year gilts hit 0.5% where those still there cant and the door is almost closed on a transfer.

This thread has really opened my eyes to the whole pensions issue SIPP's,60/40 funds,draw down,DC/DB etc.That's a stunning example right there DB.

Until I joined the ambulance service I never had a pension jsut my ISA's and you can clearly see how the 90% are going to get utterly reamed by the next decade plus the poltical class.You can also see how people who do some research and take a risk can do disproportionately better from the same capital base as someone who jsut takes what they're given.

[Lightscribe]

20 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

She got in with 6 months to spare before all new joiners were put onto the defined contributions scheme.Now all those on the DB scheme are being moved onto the DC scheme(which from what I can see is going to get reamed by infaltion over the next decade).

There's been a consultation but basically the company can't afford it with rates on the floor as they are.

Worth noting as well that the inflation linkage is only 2.5% CPI so once you're in receipt,then the inflation erosion begins.

It was interesting tho that I set her up a couple of ISA's 2018/19/20 and have managed them with the help of the hive mind on here and have made some lucky moves into/out of gold and into oil at the bottom and her divi income is already nearly equal to her projected final salary payout(if she doesn't get promoted).

Truly staggering that so many are going to be funnelled into DC schemes where retirement dreams go to die.

Also,on the flip side,it's staggering what this thread has helped many people achieve for themselves.

I should imagine the rest of the emergency services will follow to DC (which was good for me as I was able to funnel it where I wanted the last 10 years and the age related employer contributions have been 17%) shit for most however.
I’m hoping now I’ll be able to add it all to my SIPP. I’ve moved over to the DB whilst I can now which is still CPI linked where I am, to get as many years as I can there before it gets knocked on the head.

I imagine a new inflation index for the civil service will have to be ‘invented’ from 2022 or a cap as you say.

https://www.cspa.co.uk/news/1204/

 

[Chewing Grass]

2 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Huge amoutn of skilled talent there was effectively pension tied as nowhere else was offering DB scheme.She reckons loads will now move for better jobs.Her company really looks after staff well and invest heavily in talent.It says a lot that they canned their DB scheme despite what it will cost them operationally.

This thread has really opened my eyes to the whole pensions issue SIPP's,60/40 funds,draw down,DC/DB etc.That's a stunning example right there DB.

Until I joined the ambulance service I never had a pension jsut my ISA's and you can clearly see how the 90% are going to get utterly reamed by the next decade plus the poltical class.You can also see how people who do some research and take a risk can do disproportionately better from the same capital base as someone who jsut takes what they're given.

Here is my Private Sector workplace SIPP with no input from me (yet), been in this one for 12 months, here is its performance over the last 6.

Its amazing how many staffies have no clue about how bad their companies pension is performing.