Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Starsend]

41 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

Thinking of going off the booze myself as hate the thought of giving this gov the extra taxes in duty and supporting this rotten system. 

Is this too extreme?

Yes

[Bricormortis]

January saw the fastest increases in Germany producers prices since records began, up 25%

[Barnsey]

12 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

January saw the fastest increases in Germany producers prices since records began, up 25%

Not nice now heading into double dip recession.

[Jesus Wept]

Serious question:

Why are U.K. / US sanctioning Russia when the Russians haven’t invaded yet? 
 

 

[Joncrete Cungle]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

We’ve discussed this before on here. That’s exactly why alongside that you would need a Digital ID and social credit score.

Everything will be tracked, monitored and accounted for.

It’s not much of a stretch to go to the next stage through smartphones and watches.

https://pubchem.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/patent/US-2020279585-A1

You buy your government approved things from the shop with your CBDC / Bennies, use your social credit score and digital ID, tracked on their mobiles and whatever else the state dreams up  etc. Once the dregs have the government approved stuff in their hand and have left the shop they will trade it for cigarettes, alcohol or drugs etc in their neighbourhood.

 

 

[Funn3r]

Can someone explain what a "ladder " is? I have often wondered why people say it so much. Really have tried searching investopedia and the internet generally but I only end up finding companies that make actual physical ladders.

[Libspero]

2 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

Serious question:

Why are U.K. / US sanctioning Russia when the Russians haven’t invaded yet? 

They’ve formally claimed the Eastern oblasts that they already control and have started rolling Russian tanks in.  

I think to the West that constitutes an invasion and hence triggered the sanctions.

[Jesus Wept]

16 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

Can someone explain what a "ladder " is? I have often wondered why people say it so much. Really have tried searching investopedia and the internet generally but I only end up finding companies that make actual physical ladders.

@Funn3r

Laddering is making a PLAN to buy several tranches of an investment vehicle at different times and at different price intervals. 
 

e.g. you might PLAN to ladder £12k into POLY at ‘roughly’ ….

1100p - £3k

1000p - £3k

850p - £3k

600p - £3k

Often the stock does not reach your lower ‘rungs’ so you may only end up investing £6k instead of the planned £12k.

Its basic function is to AVERAGE DOWN. 
 

The above is my strategy with POLY. 
 

1083p bought 2 weeks ago

1023p bought today.

So in reality I have bought them all at about 1050p 

Current price is now 1100p

However I will buy again at ‘roughly’ 850p and 600p if it ever hits these ladders. 

If it does not go to 850p - fab - I’ve limited potential losses and I’ve got that tranche of money to spend on another stock. 
 

The big disadvantage is that you could have locked yourself into a failing company that is actually going to zero. 

I tend to only ladder down 4x + on only blue chips with a massive market cap that are very hugely unlikely to go bust and are just experiencing weakness / uncertainty. £bn market caps. 

Just re-read your post and realise you are taking the piss aren’t you ? Haha …

 

 

[Loki]

5 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

Can someone explain what a "ladder " is? I have often wondered why people say it so much. Really have tried searching investopedia and the internet generally but I only end up finding companies that make actual physical ladders.

Set buying points

[Libspero]

2 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

Can someone explain what a "ladder " is? I have often wondered why people say it so much. Really have tried searching investopedia and the internet generally but I only end up finding companies that make actual physical ladders.

I’ll stand to be corrected,  but I think it means you see a share you like, you don’t invest all at once..  instead you throw in, say a third,  then wait to see if the price drops.  If it does you throw in another third.  If it drops more you throw in the last third..  etc.

It’s a way of spreading your risk without having to time the bottom exactly.

If the price increases after the first ladder,  you just take your winnings and walk away.  I think.

I don’t do it personally.  Or at least,  not as a deliberate strategy.

[reformed nice guy]

7 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

Can someone explain what a "ladder " is?

someone had to do it....

[Jesus Wept]

18 minutes ago, Libspero said:

I’ll stand to be corrected,  but I think it means you see a share you like, you don’t invest all at once..  instead you throw in, say a third,  then wait to see if the price drops.  If it does you throw in another third.  If it drops more you throw in the last third..  etc.

It’s a way of spreading your risk without having to time the bottom exactly.

If the price increases after the first ladder,  you just take your winnings and walk away.  I think.

I don’t do it personally.  Or at least,  not as a deliberate strategy.

I have done it on every “big market cap blue chip dividend paying” share I’ve ever bought. 

Don’t tend to ladder more than twice on high risk stocks like POG that I bought this morning on the Russian news. That’s a gamble on a £500m high risk mid cap company. Also limit my holding to a v small compared to my BP / Shell holding. 
 

Another downside is you pay 3 or 4 shares dealing charges. Peanuts in the general scheme of things. 

[leonardratso]

this is all rubbish, its the rip you get in your tights when you do your transexual date nights dressed as denise in high heels and fake eyelashes, and look like a bloke in a frock.

Usually caused by sharp fake finger nails or a bent rusty nail sticking out of the garden gate that was fixed in a hurry - just as you rush out to your taxi in your getup.

Or so ive heard. Apparently.

[Bobthebuilder]

10 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

someone had to do it....

Those are step ladders, an entirely different investment approach than laddering.

A step ladder stops you from being able to buy stuff when the price has risen a lot as, you just cannot reach them without falling off.

 

[Lightscribe]

In regards to active investing, as I mentioned before in my pension fund I’m mostly in a cash fund after having sold out when FTSE reached well into near where it is now expecting a BK (I have very limited choices in my workplace L&G scheme). I left a small portion and continuing contributions in an ‘L&G Active Management’ fund that has a reasonable exposure to gold and miners during the pandemic (which is why I kept it there).

Logged on the other day to see the holdings % had changed mostly to tech and weighted in things like Microsoft which I have now switched out of. As I’ve said before I really have little faith in current ‘fund managers’ to do active management. That’s why I’ve think they will try to catch the knife in ‘growth’ stocks as that’s all they know. 

Unless they know more QE to the moon is coming for the melt up of course…

But until they get the memo that inflation is here to stay, I’m staying away from these type of funds.

[Funn3r]

Thanks for all the ladder replies. Esp. the long post from @Jesus Wept and no I am not taking the piss. I don't expect you lot to spoon-feed a total novice and I do try to work things out for myself. For example I was mystified by the constant references to "top-slicing" but managed to resolve that without help. "Laddering" just happens to be something I didn't have success with searching.

As it happens I've already been doing laddering with the crypto things we don't mention on here, although didn't realise there was an actual word for it. Yes my mum used to repair ladders in her stockings by sewing them up with a plucked hair.

I was very grateful for advice suggestions after I opened my S&S ISA (especially DB) and it is cautiously going well. Suddenly the Russia/Ukraine thing though and I am looking for buying opportunities, and have saved a few of recent mentions such as Polymetal etc.

[leonardratso]

6 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

Thanks for all the ladder replies. Esp. the long post from @Jesus Wept and no I am not taking the piss. I don't expect you lot to spoon-feed a total novice and I do try to work things out for myself. For example I was mystified by the constant references to "top-slicing" but managed to resolve that without help. "Laddering" just happens to be something I didn't have success with searching.

As it happens I've already been doing laddering with the crypto things we don't mention on here, although didn't realise there was an actual word for it. Yes my mum used to repair ladders in her stockings by sewing them up with a plucked hair.

I was very grateful for advice suggestions after I opened my S&S ISA (especially DB) and it is cautiously going well. Suddenly the Russia/Ukraine thing though and I am looking for buying opportunities, and have saved a few of recent mentions such as Polymetal etc.

Did she have one of those wooden mushroom shaped things to shove in her tights as she sewed them up, my mum did, i remember it well.

[Funn3r]

3 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

Did she have one of those wooden mushroom shaped things to shove in her tights as she sewed them up, my mum did, i remember it well.

Er, crikey, I don't even want to think of my mum shoving... no let's change the subject.

[leonardratso]

3 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

Er, crikey, I don't even want to think of my mum shoving... no let's change the subject.

hahaha, obviously the tights were off and being repaired, could work in socks as well, i found it, its called a darning mushroom, £4 apparently (or so), i think it was shoved into garment and presented a bulged out surface of garment at the tear to join together under pressure so as not to sew it too tight. Sort of emulating a body part being in the garment i assume.

Anyways, thats enough of that rubbish, although darning and repairing clothes is probably within dosbods tight arsed manifesto to be honest.

[geordie_lurch]

An inflation meme doing the rounds on social media

[Lightscribe]

50 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

hahaha, obviously the tights were off and being repaired, could work in socks as well, i found it, its called a darning mushroom, £4 apparently (or so), i think it was shoved into garment and presented a bulged out surface of garment at the tear to join together under pressure so as not to sew it too tight. Sort of emulating a body part being in the garment i assume.

Anyways, thats enough of that rubbish, although darning and repairing clothes is probably within dosbods tight arsed manifesto to be honest.

Im glad you mentioned that as my excuse to bore everyone with my long held ‘Darn The Socks’™ theory in societal change. with gradual exposure into instant gratification, throwaway societal acceptance with access to cheap labour/materials, via the disinflation cycle into the internet era, marriage/relationship breakdowns rocketing compared of course to WW2 marriages lasting 60+years despite weeks/months of knowing each other.

Socks used to be better quality to darn, now they’re not and everyone wants access to cheap new ones. If it’s broke go buy a new pair for peanuts, there’s no desire to devote any work to anything which can be changed at a whim. 

Somewhat monetary/societal cycle related however, but enough from me veering off in that direction. 

[No One]

3 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Have some of that plebs! How many customers on plans of just £8 a month you reckon? (Except me of course)

Which is why I always PAYG

2 hours ago, BadAlchemy said:

I feel a bit dirty today buying stocks in a country with a corrupt regime where they hold rigged elections, have tyrants and dictators running the country, overreach into other nations territory and sovereignty, censor free speech and seize individuals assets if they dare to speak out against the state, place people under house arrest for no good reason at all, and carry out illegal medical experiments on their citizens. But enough talk of my US, Canadian, UK, and EU share holdings...

On a more positive note, I did manage to pick up some Gazprom this morning for $6.84. May get some.more if it goes much lower.

1 hour ago, Funn3r said:

Can someone explain what a "ladder " is? I have often wondered why people say it so much. Really have tried searching investopedia and the internet generally but I only end up finding companies that make actual physical ladders.

[sancho panza]

9 hours ago, moneyscam said:

Watching the bounce off the lows this morning in FTSE and S&P futures I'm currently wondering if the market is starting to price in that the Fed won't be able to raise the 7 to 9 rate hikes priced in due to the current Ukraine crisis. It could be one mechanism by which Dave H. melt up scenario unfolds.

Increasingly,I'm beginning to beleivethe only way we'll melt up is with a weak dollar phase and a severe rotation into value.Bit of confirmation bias as we're heavily postioned for that scenario,particualrly in oil

8 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Now that's an interesting graph. I'd like to read the full paper (I don't have access, ResearchGate doesn't allow stinky industry types in). But it looks similar to what I've been saying since 2018 or so: no more incremental supply. Their plateau is longer than I think it will be, I think it'll dip down before 2030. But the Energy required to produce energy ontop is a nice touch. I think it means that to achieve this flat to dropping production level, there will be less and less available for consumers. Which means higher prices, and huge profits for the companies that produce it cheaply (all the ones that survived the corona crash).

Very much follwoing the Dr Tim Morgan thesis on the energy cost of energy.As I said to MS above,we have to be careful here as afamily,as we're heavily postioned for that.I keep searching for weaknesses in the thesis but besides a major credit deflation I can't really see any at the mo and even that woud be a temporary blip in a decade bull imho

Near term,I've posted before of the previously clear correlations between oil price rises and recessions which I think will see a high oil price take us into recession Q3/Q4 this year possibly.

Looking further out,all the stuff you've been writing about from a supply side has pretty much been spot on and that chart and report from @Plan-b confirms the work of  a few very good minds apporaching the issue from different angles.

7 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Russian rule would likely be a step up for majority of Ukrainians, at the very least Billions of $ wouldn't end up in the hands of US politicians families.  To say its corrupt would be putting it mildly.

In the vein of "are we the baddies?", some of the Ukrainian Regiments have had less than desirable opinions.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion

I wonder if there'll be a movie one day,'Joe Biden,his son,his lap top and his sons work for a Ukrainian gas firm'.

[Berk]

10 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

HL a bit too marmite for me. On the one hand, I like this macro thesis. On the other, their operational management is really starting to worry me - 2022 and no TFA or OTP is a huge red flag.

Seriously contemplating pulling everything I can off their platform because of this, it calls into question their entire approach to customer security.

I'd certainly rather be a shareholder than a customer at this point!

It’s extremely rare that I feel able to add anything to this fantastic thread, however, I’ve found that HL do offer 2FA.   It requires you to send a secure message or call them, more info in the link below.  

https://www.hl.co.uk/security-centre/the-security-of-your-hargreaves-lansdown-account

I can’t see why they don’t allow you to activate it simply via the app or through the website like many other platforms, given it’s importance, but in any case it’s well worth putting the additional layer of security in place.

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Those are step ladders, an entirely different investment approach than laddering.

A step ladder stops you from being able to buy stuff when the price has risen a lot as, you just cannot reach them without falling off.

 

I thought step ladders were ladders that looked after smaller ladders but were not biologically related?