Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Libspero]

Roll Royce down 15%..  why?!

I’d expect defence to be one area that might buck the dip.

[Jesus Wept]

Just now, Libspero said:

I’m finally feeling slightly vindicated in my choice of Mariachi shares given the political risks.

Probably should take a punt on Poly now but not sure if I’ve really got the balls 

Levelled out at 700p this morning. 

Ideal opportunity for first ladder. 

In hindsight I should have waited. 

However in 10years time all will / should  be well. 
 

 

[geordie_lurch]

Saw this meme and thought of some of you

 

[Jesus Wept]

Just now, Libspero said:

Roll Royce down 15%..  why?!

I’d expect defence to be one area that might buck the dip.

I bought me some more at 100p 

[Libspero]

1 minute ago, Jesus Wept said:

Levelled out at 700p this morning. 

Ideal opportunity for first ladder. 

My concern would be what happens if they get delisted.  Do you get anything back?

[Hardhat]

Just got a ladder into Abrdn @ 210, next is 180 

I'm guessing the BP dip is due to their Russian exposure via Rosneft?

Shell and goldies up. Nice to see gold / miners doing their job in the portfolio instead of dragging it down for once 

[Plan-b]

3 minutes ago, Libspero said:

My concern would be what happens if they get delisted.  Do you get anything back?

Doubt It   

[Harley]

Big picture, Putin is getting on and succession planning and staying strong during the hand over to the right person in the face of likely outside opportunistic meddling could be a priority.

[Libspero]

4 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

Nice to see gold / miners doing their job in the portfolio instead of dragging it down for once 

 Not seeing miners up..  I’m seeing everything down except gold and (presumably) bonds.   Markets are going full Armageddon defensive while they figure out what’s going on.  I’m surprised given how inevitable it seemed.

[Noallegiance]

2 minutes ago, Libspero said:

 Not seeing miners up..  I’m seeing everything down except gold and (presumably) bonds.   Markets are going full Armageddon defensive while they figure out what’s going on.  I’m surprised given how inevitable it seemed.

GDX & GDXJ are ripping.

Both my ISA and SIPP are net considerably up this morning.

[CannonFodder]

Hmm, I.m holding everything so far, perhaps the wrong strategy.

Was too overweight in russian shares to begin with, my fault entirely. Bought too early over christmas when initial tension started.

Pms doing well, will try to move funds into places like Abrn as prices low. 

Will wait till american open before selling.

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Risk here isnt Russia its the dollar going up

why worried about USD? DXY still above 97 with Gold n Silver both up, hmmmmm

[Libspero]

1 minute ago, Noallegiance said:

GDX & GDXJ are ripping.

Both my ISA and SIPP are net considerably up this morning.

Apologies..  gold miners excepted!

[Harley]

14 minutes ago, Libspero said:

 Not seeing miners up..  I’m seeing everything down except gold and (presumably) bonds.   Markets are going full Armageddon defensive while they figure out what’s going on.  I’m surprised given how inevitable it seemed.

I see no ships!

Also available in red!

PS:  Cross post.

 

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

This would be a gamble:

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/f/ferrexpo-plc-ord-10p

and did you, punk?

[moneyscam]

23 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

I'm going to try and do some actual paid work now but will post a ink to this Time magazine article which I think is closer to what Putin's real intentions might be here https://time.com/6150787/putin-us-risk-ukraine-war/

"When Vladimir Putin declared war early Thursday morning, he did not set Ukraine as his ultimate target. The Russian leader focused instead on the U.S. and its allies, placing them at the center of a speech that set the night’s invasion in motion. It was the West, he said, that created the “fundamental threats” to Russia that prompted him to attack Ukraine, and it is the West, he said, that Russia would seek to humble in the ensuing war.

“All of the so-called Western bloc, which the U.S. formed in its image and likeness, all of it in its entirety, is what’s known as the empire of lies,” Putin said. After the fall of the Soviet Union, he added, the U.S. and its allies “tried to crush us, beat us down and finish us off… We remember that and will never forget it."

and

"But by the time the missiles began to fall Thursday, hitting both military and civilian targets across the entirety of Ukraine, it was abundantly clear that Moscow’s approach would not change—that Putin intends this war as his revenge against the West, and the United States in particular.

Among the many threats he issued in his declaration of war, the most chilling was reserved not for Ukraine but for the “outside forces” who might come to its defense, a thinly veiled reference to Kyiv’s allies in the U.S. and Europe. Addressing them toward the end of his speech, Putin said: “Anyone who tries to get in our way, let alone tries to threaten us and our people, should know that Russia’s answer will be immediate, and it will lead to consequences of the sort that you have not faced ever in your history.”

Thank you for that. The bolded bit above has always been my view. Instead of exploiting the peace dividend of the end of the Cold War, the US in particular sought to press its advantage and establish itself as the undisputable global hegemon. The West has ignored and belittled Russia's legitimate security concerns and national interests these last 30 years deludedly believing it could bring Russia to heel.

Today should disabuse many of that notion. Does that make me a Putin lover? No, I don't particularly have any love for him or Russia, rather I can recognise they are a major power that should have been dealt with as an equal that we could have aligned with rather than try and subdue in a futile manner. We have been monumentally stupid in also driving Russia and China into each others arms.

Now its too late to go back and I can only hope the conflict is limited to Ukraine and of short duration and that it doesn't spiral wider else we will all be fucked in various ways.

[nirvana]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The west is seeing what happens when you concentrate on woke,single mothers,bennies and lunacy.

 

[Lightscribe]

I’m back in the blue on FRES and laddered down on POLY this morning.

My strategy so far looks like it’s working on FRES (being relatively safe geographically wise and and largely accessible in funds) as the flock to gold and silver exposure for safety. 

 

[Cosmic]

13 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

Hmm, I.m holding everything so far, perhaps the wrong strategy.

Was too overweight in russian shares to begin with, my fault entirely. Bought too early over christmas when initial tension started.

Pms doing well, will try to move funds into places like Abrn as prices low. 

Will wait till american open before selling.

This has solved my GAZ issue.... was overweight but now 10% down... balls. My review was this weekend and I'd have sliced next week.

[Hunty]

Nursing some pain today, will wait for the Yanks to open to see what and when to buy. 

A lesson to any new investors; spread your risk, the screen grab will never be forgotten. RIP.

 

[nirvana]

someone tweeted this so I won't take credit for the words, interesting ya

Russia has the third largest trade surplus on Earth, behind only China and Germany. But unlike China and Germany who mostly produce consumer shit that we don't need to survive Russia produces almost exclusively the commodities which are the bedrock of modern human civilization

 

[Democorruptcy]

13 minutes ago, nirvana said:

and did you, punk?

Yes but only on a small scale because I have no idea what's going to happen with shares from over there. The 3.1 P/E and 18% divi at today's price was too tempting, when it probably should have been more a warning. It's only money, my health is more important.

[Don Coglione]

5 minutes ago, Hunty said:

Nursing some pain today, will wait for the Yanks to open to see what and when to buy. 

A lesson to any new investors; spread your risk, the screen grab will never be forgotten. RIP.

 

Faaark! This too shall pass, in my view.

Fair play for fronting up though, @Hunty.

[nirvana]

Just now, Democorruptcy said:

It's only money, my health is more important.

wise words captain, always get your bike ride in before doing drugs and having a heavy wanking session 

[Don Coglione]

Just now, nirvana said:

wise words captain, always get your bike ride in before doing drugs and having a heavy wanking session 

What would constitute a "heavy" session, out of interest?