Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Harley]

11 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

 

I'm layering on the lard today before listening to the msm et al.  Fear it's going to require particularly slippery stuff to stay grounded.  I think I might remember a few things about war and stuff but I'm sure a media studies type journo, even one from Oxbridge, or someone with "professor" in their name or from some odd sounding (even odder funded) think tank will know better.  I don't recall hearing about mass troop movements, mobilisation of rear echelons, country put on a war footing, etc.  It's as if Putin was given a green light, that some sort of deal has been done, one that will probably enable our own to feck us some more?  As I said a while back, they'll move onto the finance stuff soon......

[RJT1979]

Ukraine will surrender. No point fighting. Oil should drop

[belfastchild]

5 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

I agree -  just looked at what real buy price would be @0915 = 694p  but didn’t press the BUY button. 
 

So tricky to catch a falling knife. Was meant to have hit 621p at one stage this morning - impossible to time that.
Especially with H&L which I now understand the opinions of people saying they are shit ! 

Couldnt get a quote at any price below 7 on ajbell, just kept popping up with the ring them window, at 690 it came up with 709 buy and I didnt take.
Got in at 702 for a slice a bit later.

[moneyscam]

Bought me some POLY and JUP which I had intended to get before all this kicked off. Going to be an interesting next few days!

[RJT1979]

Why are the Russian stocks falling? Westerners fearing putin cuts them off and takes their shares?

[Jesus Wept]

Today reinforces to me the value of a ‘balanced / varied’ portfolio as well as having a strategic plan, being brave and laddering down and looking at a 5-10year horizon - as opposed to panicking and selling. 

POLY is less than 3% of my portfolio and has indeed taken a hit. I have seen it as an albeit risky opportunity and laddered down @664p. Bouncing a little above 700p now. 
 

However Investments that are up include BAE, Gold & Silver and Fresnillo. 

[Noallegiance]

14 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

These sort of actions confirm the roadmap is in play.Interesting the inflation and military stuff has come earlier than i had marked in.Could be my targets need adjusting up.

 

Not that I'm claiming any kind of credit for anything, but this is kinda what I mean about a year ago when I wondered whether the roadmap is under trageted, like the way DH has adjusted up a few times lately.

The system is so bonkers unbalanced. Traditional macro roadmapping (like I know what that is!) might need to get itself on the leverage steroids?

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-24/telefonica-earnings-beat-estimates-as-cost-cuts-help-spain-unit

Inflation starting to enter results of the telcos,up today

Just saying 

 

[geordie_lurch]

Some light relief...

 

[afly]

3 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

Why are the Russian stocks falling? Westerners fearing putin cuts them off and takes their shares?

Fear of western govs banning their purchase/sale?

[Noallegiance]

Ssssssshhhhhh........

https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/britains-centrica-sees-profits-jump-as-turnaround-continues-2591336

[wherebee]

31 minutes ago, afly said:

Fear of western govs banning their purchase/sale?

some Iraqi assets were frozen for 10+ years due to sanctions.  However, I suspect that as the west needs oil and gas, these are an amazing play if you have the balls.

I'm going in 5k on Poly at 690.  Lets see what happens.

edit: got half at 680.  have stuck the other half a ladder in at 600ish.  what did Rothschild say?

[Democorruptcy]

This would be a gamble:

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/f/ferrexpo-plc-ord-10p

[Barnsey]

Had to chicken out of POLY this morning taking a 30% hit, just don't have the spare cash to deal with this kind of volatility. Beans on toast next few nights methinks.

[geordie_lurch]

Videos like this of someone clearly going about their normal business then suddenly seeing Russian military with that weird Z painted on them storming across the road puts our share issues into perspective

 

[Democorruptcy]

41 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

These sort of actions confirm the roadmap is in play.Interesting the inflation and military stuff has come earlier than i had marked in.Could be my targets need adjusting up,but il wait on CB action.Risk here isnt Russia its the dollar going up,so i expect the Fed to get liquidity out into Europe etc.Iv bought ladders today in my asset manager targets.

Russia real message is that the west has let the backbone of its economy decline and now we can expect massive investment.Government will relax all kind of things to get capital from insurers etc into things.Inflation is now in a feedback loop.Jobs galore,wages etc,fiscal is going to run things not monetary,banks will be sidelined,governments will use insurers,pension funds etc instead.

 

Is using money invested by insurers for infrastructure good for asset managers?

[Barnsey]

8 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Also, we are watching the geopolitical premium going back into the oil price in real time. The interesting bit will be to see if it sticks, after the panciky bit passes. I suspect it will, as I've been saying all along, the oil market has been massively complacent. And here we are, over $100 a barrel, with inventories going straight down. Anyone hit £100 in filling their car up yet? I hope you are all hedged.

Paid 65.9 a litre for LPG to fill up the Dacia last night at the nearby services, over 170p for diesel! War is inflationary. 

[M S E Refugee]

I am nursing some big losses today and I wonder if things could get any worse for me as I received my Polish Citizenship 3 weeks ago, hopefully at age 49 I am too old to be conscripted into the Polish Army.

If you don't hear from me for a while I will be fighting on the Eastern Front.

[geordie_lurch]

I'm going to try and do some actual paid work now but will post a ink to this Time magazine article which I think is closer to what Putin's real intentions might be here https://time.com/6150787/putin-us-risk-ukraine-war/

"When Vladimir Putin declared war early Thursday morning, he did not set Ukraine as his ultimate target. The Russian leader focused instead on the U.S. and its allies, placing them at the center of a speech that set the night’s invasion in motion. It was the West, he said, that created the “fundamental threats” to Russia that prompted him to attack Ukraine, and it is the West, he said, that Russia would seek to humble in the ensuing war.

“All of the so-called Western bloc, which the U.S. formed in its image and likeness, all of it in its entirety, is what’s known as the empire of lies,” Putin said. After the fall of the Soviet Union, he added, the U.S. and its allies “tried to crush us, beat us down and finish us off… We remember that and will never forget it."

and

"But by the time the missiles began to fall Thursday, hitting both military and civilian targets across the entirety of Ukraine, it was abundantly clear that Moscow’s approach would not change—that Putin intends this war as his revenge against the West, and the United States in particular.

Among the many threats he issued in his declaration of war, the most chilling was reserved not for Ukraine but for the “outside forces” who might come to its defense, a thinly veiled reference to Kyiv’s allies in the U.S. and Europe. Addressing them toward the end of his speech, Putin said: “Anyone who tries to get in our way, let alone tries to threaten us and our people, should know that Russia’s answer will be immediate, and it will lead to consequences of the sort that you have not faced ever in your history.”

[Democorruptcy]

1 minute ago, M S E Refugee said:

I am nursing some big losses today and I wonder if things could get any worse for me as I received my Polish Citizenship 3 weeks ago, hopefully at age 49 I am too old to be conscripted into the Polish Army.

If you don't hear from me for a while I will be fighting on the Eastern Front.

Don't worry, we'll cheer you on (from a safe distance) when your cavalry goes up against the Russian tanks. Into the valley...

[M S E Refugee]

1 minute ago, Cattle Prod said:

Just stick a knife in your leg, it worked in Platoon 

Or maybe it's time to get jabbed!

[M S E Refugee]

1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

Don't worry, we'll cheer you on (from a safe distance) when your cavalry goes up against the Russian tanks. Into the valley...

I'm sure I read that Polish Cavalry charges against German Tanks was a myth.

It would be a good move for Poland to ditch Dementia Joe and ally themselves with Uncle Vlad.

I doubt this will happen though.

[CannonFodder]

25 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Videos like this of someone clearly going about their normal business then suddenly seeing Russian military with that weird Z painted on them storming across the road puts our share issues into perspective

 

I used to be very interested in warfare while younger-all kids are i suppose, russian military doctrine is speed of advance and relies on 50km a day advance or they fall apart.

Their armour tanks are smaller and lighter than western equivalent and cant go toe to toe but they dont use them in the same way, if these things get into your rear supply areas, depots or airfields, you are stuffed. Quick vid below showing their maneourability. Sorry about music, best i could find.

A long drawn out war with static lines is anathema to them hence their ethos on advance.

In terms of investing, i think its most likely it will be a quick military action regardless of who wins.

 

 

14 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Paid 65.9 a litre for LPG to fill up the Dacia last night at the nearby services, over 170p for diesel! War is inflationary. 

Filled up this morning, petrol station already busy

[Libspero]

49 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

However Investments that are up include BAE, Gold & Silver and Fresnillo. 

I’m finally feeling slightly vindicated in my choice of Mariachi shares given the political risks.

Probably should take a punt on Poly but not sure if I’ve really got the balls 

[Jesus Wept]

31 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Also, we are watching the geopolitical premium going back into the oil price in real time. The interesting bit will be to see if it sticks, after the panciky bit passes. I suspect it will, as I've been saying all along, the oil market has been massively complacent. And here we are, over $100 a barrel, with inventories going straight down. Anyone hit £100 in filling their car up yet? I hope you are all hedged.

I’m hedged.

1.3L 11 year old Honda Jazz.

£48 for a full tank does me 400miles.