Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[SpectrumFX]

1 minute ago, kibuc said:

Same here, on HL, Investing.com and even in Google. G actually reports 1400 as intraday top so far. Good luck to the buyer if that's the case.

So either a glitch, or a fat finger from somebody with very deep pockets.

[23rdian]

That was mental on poly. Sadly the shitty brokers I have didn't help me.

[Democorruptcy]

3 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

Poly just showed a mental increase in value on yahoo finance. I logged onto hl to have a look, and it showed me a similar rise there for about 2 seconds before dropping back.

Anybody else see it?

 

Hang on I'll give him a shout...... @Huntywhat have you been up to now?

[Pip321]

5 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

Poly just showed a mental increase in value on yahoo finance. I logged onto hl to have a look, and it showed me a similar rise there for about 2 seconds before dropping back.

Anybody else see it?

 

Showed on Google too...I went into AJ Bell and it showed buy at 200p and sell at 1000p. But wouldn't let me trade. 

Its a glitch or perhaps an MP forgot to sell their stake so some special treatment was afforded to them to offload. 

Joking apart I think it was untradeable but interesting. 

*apologies just posted this and realised several replied too.

 

[DurhamBorn]

7 minutes ago, marceau said:

DB I came to this site because of your ideas, the likes of MOS have worked out very well for me and for that you have my thanks.

One area where I found myself not in agreement on your theory was the capability of UK gov to come to their senses, onshore and reindustrialise. From personal experience I just don't think we have the human clay in our institutions and political parties to do it and I see nothing/noone waiting in the wings to change that.

Seeing how the pols have dealt with various issues over the past 2 years has only hardened that view and I'm interested in your opinion on the downside possibilities if we don't get things right going forward. How much pain can the currency absorb before the whole system falls over?

I agree,but most of my investments make their money outside of sterling,only 23% of my holdings make all of their earnings here.Our polos are among the worst in the world,Blair and Brown did most of the damage with bennies and growing the state.Tories didnt have the nerve for reforms.

Currency  could go down 80% if they carry on with their woke crap.Always keep a big spread of investments,currency collapse with inflation can decimate savings in very short order.FTSE needs to lose 13% a year compared to cash for instance to be level on spending power.

Contrarian hat would say these falls shake people out of inflation investments then they are decimated in cash or bonds.

I tend to just let things go to where they are going,violent swings are certain during a cycle like this.

[PaulParanoia]

Hi @DurhamBorn.  I wasn't convinced by the Potash play back in April 2020.  But it looks like you were right!  Where do you see companies like Mosaic going from here?  IYO have I missed the boat or does this have further to run?  Just looking for your thoughts rather than advice.  Cheers.

[CannonFodder]

Game over?

[ThoughtCriminal]

DAX Down 4%

 

European Natural Gas now over $3700 per cubic metre.

 

😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

 

 

 

 

[geordie_lurch]

1 minute ago, CannonFodder said:

Game over?

Yep I'm with Javier here and I think the West might be about to collapse unless something changes suddenly 

 

[marceau]

15 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I agree,but most of my investments make their money outside of sterling,only 23% of my holdings make all of their earnings here.Our polos are among the worst in the world,Blair and Brown did most of the damage with bennies and growing the state.Tories didnt have the nerve for reforms.

Currency  could go down 80% if they carry on with their woke crap.Always keep a big spread of investments,currency collapse with inflation can decimate savings in very short order.FTSE needs to lose 13% a year compared to cash for instance to be level on spending power.

Contrarian hat would say these falls shake people out of inflation investments then they are decimated in cash or bonds.

I tend to just let things go to where they are going,violent swings are certain during a cycle like this.

Thanks for the response and good luck to you and your family going forward.

[DurhamBorn]

I think i need to add on here that my skill and experience is on building a macro road map,and if i say so im very very good at it.I can cross market that work ahead and gain an advantage on areas that should gain.However this work doesnt entail trading or timing stocks.Its not what i do.

On that i simple set ladders and buy them,then i mostly let the cycle play out.I trim some,but usually only for risk where something runs hard and becomes too big.

I have no idea on short term moves,zero.I dont know what each individual company will do,no more than most others.I am confident though the areas i own including divis will outrun inflation as a group by 2028.

One bit of advice though iv learned,in volatile markets go and do something more useful and knock it off.I tend to look for a few minutes most days unless one of my companies is reporting.

My roadmap predicted whats happening now,its all part of reflation.The outcome will be rising rates,but no QT,and the Fed will force out the repo liquidity,sustained higher inflation,but room to invest in production to capture it.

 

[JMD]

Hmmm...

 

[Majorpain]

6 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Hands up who got their calor gas bottles? That prices means entire industries shutting down. Depression. Do they really want that? Who knows!

Game over man, game over!

Once one part of the supply chain shuts down, everything downstream of that is forced to close too.  Just in time is about to become nothing in time and chaos.

[Democorruptcy]

26 minutes ago, 23rdian said:

That was mental on poly. Sadly the shitty brokers I have didn't help me.

A few folk leaving:

Quote

Anglo-Russian precious metals outfit Polymetal International announced a series of departures from its boardroom early on Monday as the company continues to struggle.
Polymetal revealed that chairman Ian Cockerill will be stepping down from the board after almost three years in the job, with immediate effect, while non-executive directors Ollie Oliveira, Tracey Kerr, Italia Boninelli, Victor Flores, and Andrea Abt will also stand down from the firm's board.

 

[Lightscribe]

FRES steaming ahead nicely today. Have now sold the portion I was overweight in it at 770 freeing up some cash or ready to plow back in for a lower average if we have a pullback in a BK.

[CannonFodder]

The West needs the war to stop now, pressure didnt work with russia so I wonder if they.ll now start to pressure ukraine to give in.

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

LLOY must be a barometer on UK prospects -9% while HSBC is only -3%. I thought fags might hold up a bit better than some other stuff and I bought a few on Friday. That was too early but let me know when their bottom is in!

I did express doubts about BATS a while back, within the timelines I work to.  Not investment advice but a suggestion to check things are not overbought before buying.  I own them, a little less than then, so I don't always do as I say, except I also have to cover the upside, when it comes, and I'm too busy on something else so miss it.  But if I buy back what I sold when they're ready then that'll cushion any loss today.  That is, a compromise/hedge of an approach.

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

LLOY must be a barometer on UK prospects -9% while HSBC is only -3%. I thought fags might hold up a bit better than some other stuff and I bought a few on Friday. That was too early but let me know when their bottom is in!

The fag companies all have operations in Russia. The market is slowly moving onto selling off all companies with Russian operations - see Coca Cola Hellenic over the past week. I doubt the fag companies will leave Russia. They’re hated as is, and have nothing to gain from virtue signalling.

[Pip321]

1 minute ago, CannonFodder said:

The West needs the war to stop now, pressure didnt work with russia so I wonder if they.ll now start to pressure ukraine to give in.

 

The dollar is strengthening v Euro and Pounds, so it much be working. More bang for your buck, yahoo.

The Western press will keep on with this and they are stronger and more powerful than the readers.....we need to wait for the Dow to hit 20,000, US House Prices to half before a US citizen may start to wonder. 

The narrative will literally be the Russians are starving the world of oil and gas (booooo).....but remember everyone please don't buy Russian Oil or Gas (yahoo). Luckily for the governments many people will just believe the drivel they are fed.  

Anyone lend me a candle? 

[Castlevania]

To be honest I’d like another 10%-15% off Big Tobacco. If so I might finally get around to owning PMI.

[AlfredTheLittle]

Anyone else thinking sell Shell buy BP today? Could be worthwhile to use up the CGT allowance if nothing else

[Lightscribe]

6 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

The West needs the war to stop now, pressure didnt work with russia so I wonder if they.ll now start to pressure ukraine to give in.

 

Ok so here goes nothing. They won’t do that, because this war is a smokescreen for an economy that’s already in the process of destruction.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/exclusive-imf-10-countries-simulate-cyber-attack-global-financial-system-2021-12-09/
 

[Democorruptcy]

4 minutes ago, Harley said:

I did express doubts about BATS a while back, within the timelines I work to.  Not investment advice but a suggestion to check things are not overbought before buying.  I own them, a little less than then, so I don't always do as I say, except I also have to cover the upside, when it comes, and I'm too busy on something else do miss it.  But if I buy back what I sold when they're ready then that'll cushion any loss today.  That is, a compromise/hedge of an approach.

I bought at 25 and sold most at 34 because I thought it had done too much too quick, so I have a bit of a cushion.

[Democorruptcy]

6 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

The fag companies all have operations in Russia. The market is slowly moving onto selling off all companies with Russian operations - see Coca Cola Hellenic over the past week. I doubt the fag companies will leave Russia. They’re hated as is, and have nothing to gain from virtue signalling.

I'd searched the BATS and IMB annual reports for the word "Russia" and IMB looked to have pulled some things from there.

[Democorruptcy]

This is a nice gesture when your share price is down -70% in 6 months:

Quote

Iron ore pellets exporter Ferrexpo has launched a humanitarian fund in order for the group to provide direct support for local communities surrounding its operations and in Ukraine.
Ferrexpo said on Monday that an initial $1.5m had been allocated to the fund, with projects being coordinated by its management team in Ukraine, while the fund was said to have already deployed resources toward the local sourcing of food with a long shelf life, restocking of equipment and basic materials such as blankets for shelters in residential areas and emergency medical supplies for local hospitals and medical facilities.

Funds will be deployed on a daily basis to support the quickly changing situation in the country.

Chief executive Jim North said: "The fund is an important part of our emergency response to the humanitarian needs of our local communities at this difficult time. In addition, we are providing support in many areas, with accommodation available to those seeking refuge from other parts of the country, and we have implemented measures to support our workforce of more than 10,000 people, including but not limited the advance of salaries and paying taxes, a newly established centre at our operations to provide 24 hour child care, and the provision of psychological support to employees."

As of 0855 GMT, Ferrexpo shares were down 6.39% at 111.40p.