Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, CannonFodder said:

The West needs the war to stop now, pressure didnt work with russia so I wonder if they.ll now start to pressure ukraine to give in.

This whole thing feels like a testing of capabilities, can Russia withstand total sanctions vs can US social media etc cause a colour revolution in Russia, can NATO supplied Manpads effectively deny territory vs are NATO members really indivisible. At some point the cold warriors on both sides will redraw their models and a new equilibrium will emerge to reflect the new balance of capabilities. As other people have said, something is about to break otherwise.

I wish I had bought more Polymetal and Evraz at the lows...

[ThoughtCriminal]

Just now, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Better stock up some more later. Planned to anyway. I might make it obvious. Time to panic buy pass it on...

This is a good point.

 

Make sure you're all stocked up on your tinned and dried goods lads. This is only heading in one direction.

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, marceau said:

DB I came to this site because of your ideas, the likes of MOS have worked out very well for me and for that you have my thanks.

One area where I found myself not in agreement on your theory was the capability of UK gov to come to their senses, onshore and reindustrialise. From personal experience I just don't think we have the human clay in our institutions and political parties to do it and I see nothing/noone waiting in the wings to change that.

Seeing how the pols have dealt with various issues over the past 2 years has only hardened that view and I'm interested in your opinion on the downside possibilities if we don't get things right going forward. How much pain can the currency absorb before the whole system falls over?

I thought about this the other day, and think the issue is 'short termism' in our political system. As soon as a government is in they have to start thinking about how they are going to win the next election and when to call it. As a result nothing substantial really get done, and a lot of money is wasted by throwing insufficient capital and hoping for a 'quick fix'. I did wonder if it would be better to have a fixed term of 10 years [or 1.5 business cycles] where a) the government couldn't call an early election, and b) if the nation had to call for a 'snap' election due to mismanagement, the governing party was then barred from holding office for another 1-2 terms to avoid any 'playing' of the system.

[CannonFodder]

11 minutes ago, moneyscam said:

Well he works for Bloomberg so is expected to stay on script. I think now some of those in various governments that went for the full sanctions package genuinely believed they could influence Putin the way they wanted to and that all the economic cost would fall on Russia and nowhere else.

This morning as the markets unravel I'm sure there are at least a few thinking 'what have we done?'. 

Agree but is the script changing and is back pedaling happening

 

[marceau]

3 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

This is only heading in one direction.

Agree with the big picture, but statements like this often indicate things are going to head in the other direction for a while. 

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, Libspero said:

Fags and telecoms have been my worst performers.. but I don’t think they’re fundamentally bad,  they’re just being dragged down by the rest of the market and money outflows into traditional “safe harbours”.

Amazed, found ciggies to be my most consistent....perhaps that just shows how bad my other choices have been then?! :-)))

[Noallegiance]

5 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

This is a good point.

 

Make sure you're all stocked up on your tinned and dried goods lads. This is only heading in one direction.

OMG I so totally love One Direction!

[CVG]

2 hours ago, Libspero said:

Fags and telecoms have been my worst performers.. but I don’t think they’re fundamentally bad,  they’re just being dragged down by the rest of the market and money outflows into traditional “safe harbours”.

Hope they stay down until my 2022/3 ISA allowance goes in.

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, SpectrumFX said:

Poly just showed a mental increase in value on yahoo finance. I logged onto hl to have a look, and it showed me a similar rise there for about 2 seconds before dropping back.

Anybody else see it?

 

Must have been when @Yellow_Reduced_Sticker sold his and then immediately changed his mind, and bought back in! :-)))

[ThoughtCriminal]

3 minutes ago, marceau said:

Agree with the big picture, but statements like this often indicate things are going to head in the other direction for a while. 

You think the price of food is going to fall? 

 

Hey, there are enough opinions for everyone.

 

You crazy bastard 😆😉

[CannonFodder]

5 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

This whole thing feels like a testing of capabilities, can Russia withstand total sanctions vs can US social media etc cause a colour revolution in Russia, can NATO supplied Manpads effectively deny territory vs are NATO members really indivisible. At some point the cold warriors on both sides will redraw their models and a new equilibrium will emerge to reflect the new balance of capabilities. As other people have said, something is about to break otherwise.

I wish I had bought more Polymetal and Evraz at the lows...

I was watching an anti-russian guy based in russia, very critical of invasion however he also lambasted the west as the sanctions are increasing Putins popularity due to victemhood. Very scarey if true.

[Noallegiance]

1 minute ago, CannonFodder said:

I was watching an anti-russian guy based in russia, very critical of invasion however he also lambasted the west as the sanctions are increasing Putins popularity due to victemhood. Very scarey if true.

Anecdotal from my office:

Bloke came back from holiday in Mexico. A few Russians there. One he talked to said they wanted to get as far away as possible for as long as possible. Not happy with Vlad.

[Majorpain]

22 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Just spoke to mate that trades gas and electricity.

 

I asked how it's going and he said "Armageddon" 🤣

 

He's getting over £700 per megawatt today, was £250 a fortnight ago.

 

In his words "Wait until those stupid cunts with Ukraine flags in their profile see their gas bills this year".

 

It's the simple pleasures in life. 😁😂

You would like to think that the average person on the street would understand that blocking petro exports from 3rd largest exporter, in a tight market at the best of times, would lead to ridiculous spikes in the price of energy.  I don't think that the penny has dropped with most people yet that they are in trouble, no doubt they expect big gov to bail them out again.

Its interesting that despite Euro Gas prices being in stupid territory, nothing has visibly blown up yet.  Regulators are no doubt working overtime keeping traders/companies in dire straights off headline news.  I will be amazed if there is no Lehman moment of toxic energy derivatives bubbling away behind the scenes.

[marceau]

2 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

I thought about this the other day, and think the issue is 'short termism' in our political system. As soon as a government is in they have to start thinking about how they are going to win the next election and when to call it. As a result nothing substantial really get done, and a lot of money is wasted by throwing insufficient capital and hoping for a 'quick fix'. I did wonder if it would be better to have a fixed term of 10 years [or 1.5 business cycles] where a) the government couldn't call an early election, and b) if the nation had to call for a 'snap' election due to mismanagement, the governing party was then barred from holding office for another 1-2 terms to avoid any 'playing' of the system.

It runs far deeper than that imo. Many on here say they've been 'redpilled', but I don't think they've been dosed anywhere near enough. The bad stuff that people think started in the last decade, or in the 90s, really started between the world wars. The resulting societal collapse already occured - between the 50s and 60s.

The 90s is just the point where the entire dialectic became false and all real choices disappeared from the system. Blair, Brown, Cameron, now Johnson (plus Starmer and even Corbyn) may as well have been the same person. The direction, decisions and laws are formulated elsewhere and according to other priorities.

[marceau]

4 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

You think the price of food is going to fall? 

 

Hey, there are enough opinions for everyone.

 

You crazy bastard 😆😉

The price of food never falls. The price of equities and oil contracts, however, can go tumbling for months on end, even in the most aggressive of bull markets. Caution required.

[Democorruptcy]

LSE cancelled POLY trades.

Quote

The London Stock Exchange said on Monday that it had cancelled all Polymetal trades executed between 0841 GMT and 0902 GMT after a spike in shares of the Anglo-Russian precious metals miner.
The LSE had said in a notice to members earlier that it was investigating trades in Polymetal after the shares surged 700% and that some of them could be cancelled.

At 1055 GMT, the shares were up 31% at 223.11p, having jumped to as high as 1,400p earlier in the morning.

 

[Ash4781b]

National insurance rises still coming in April. Yes we suspect it’s likely so they can get the health and social care Levy in there in the baselines for future rises but Sunak and Boris going with it’s not going up as much as other  goods and services. Haha!

Then there’s the monetary policy committee. Presumably not putting forward emergency interest rate rises. Firms dramatically raising prices. 

[marceau]

12 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

You would like to think that the average person on the street would understand that blocking petro exports from 3rd largest exporter, in a tight market at the best of times, would lead to ridiculous spikes in the price of energy.  I don't think that the penny has dropped with most people yet that they are in trouble, no doubt they expect big gov to bail them out again.

 The Sid Vicious quote on this subject is evergreen.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Just now, marceau said:

The price of food never falls. The price of equities and oil contracts, however, can go tumbling for months on end, even in the most aggressive of bull markets. Caution required.

I agree with that. I was talking about food.

 

Although I don't think what we're seeing is a blip but a new paradigm. We'll have to see what equilibrium looks like then.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

This is my feeling too, funny part is when I have a few beers I always wake up at 4am last night I had a few beers and at 4am this morning I was laying in bed pretty much thinking the above

 

Im 40 years old yet to buy a house as they just seen like over priced pieces of shit have money saved, invested trying to stay ahead 

Always worked never once claimed a penny and wondering what the fuck 

Then thinking about friends and family who are balls deep in debt with kids, large mortgages who are also trying to keep there heads above water and have no clue about half the stuff in this thread 

 

There are two types of rabbits.  Those caught in the headlights and those chained to the road! 

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

This is a nice gesture when your share price is down -70% in 6 months:

 

Without sounding heartless, this sort of thing puts me off owning stock with companies like this...if I want to donate let me decide by donating from my own funds and not those of other shareholders as well...the whole point of a business with shareholders is to make as money as possible, not be a charity, have an agenda, or be a social service.

[sleepwello'nights]

1 minute ago, MrXxxx said:

Without sounding heartless, this sort of thing puts me off owning stock with companies like this...if I want to donate let me decide by donating from my own funds and not those of other shareholders as well...the whole point of a business with shareholders is to make as money as possible, not be a charity, have an agenda, or be a social service.

Just part of their PR and marketing budget.

[moneyscam]

2 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

Agree but is the script changing and is back pedaling happening

 

Not yet in any meaningful way IMO from the people that matter and take the decisions. Sure here and there you'll find a Javier reassessing their position but their influence is marginal in the grand scheme of things. I think once food supply chains potentially break down then we will see furious back pedalling as they start to think about saving their own skins instead of playing Globo-Cop.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, SpectrumFX said:

Poly just showed a mental increase in value on yahoo finance. I logged onto hl to have a look, and it showed me a similar rise there for about 2 seconds before dropping back.

Anybody else see it?

 

LSE looking into it and may unwind some trades.  

[marceau]

1 minute ago, moneyscam said:

Not yet in any meaningful way IMO from the people that matter and take the decisions. Sure here and there you'll find a Javier reassessing their position but their influence is marginal in the grand scheme of things. I think once food supply chains potentially break down then we will see furious back pedalling as they start to think about saving their own skins instead of playing Globo-Cop.

That could end up like Suez, where questions over where the power really lay were answered in no uncertain terms.