Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, jamtomorrow said:

Been wondering when pols would realise there's almost unlimited mileage in throwing CBs under the bus ...

My tweets are having some effect at last 🤣🤣🤣

[Democorruptcy]

On 24/04/2022 at 22:51, Chewing Grass said:

You just prompted me to look at something I've known about for the last 25 years due to my passing interest in Geology and old maps.

Parys Mountain in Anglesey, Wales sits on top of the biggest Copper, Silver and Gold deposit in the UK, this sucker is huge and deep with the Victorian miners only scratching the surface with their tech.

You also get cheaper metals Zinc & Lead as a by-product.

Interestingly they have just listed on AIM.

https://www.angleseymining.co.uk/parys-mountain/

https://www.lse.co.uk/share-fundamentals.asp?shareprice=AYM

I got talking to a chap with a drone recently and suggested some places he could film. One was Parys Mountain and he obviously went! Porth Wen is another of my regular walks, I was there when he shot that bit and was impressed when he took his drone through the rusty drum!

@Transistor Manmight be interested.

 

[Pip321]

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

£9k i could retire on.Lurcher,gun etc.Thats 3x what i lived on in the late 80s in my home town.I prefer £17k,but if it come to it id still be doing sod all on £9k.I prefer to keep fit instead.I still think i could kill 95% of people if they went for my family.I like that fact.

Super answer.
I think I know why you don’t use an IFA. 

IFA in response to your statement above “Thanks Mr Born, I think I will tick the £15k to £20k box if that’s okay.  We will get to the ‘what % of people could you kill section’ once I just finish some further details on your existing financial arrangements and family commitments” 😆😆

[BurntBread]

5 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I got talking to a chap with a drone recently and suggested some places he could film. One was Parys Mountain and he obviously went! Porth Wen is another of my regular walks, I was there when he shot that bit and was impressed when he took his drone through the rusty drum!

@Transistor Manmight be interested.

 

That's absolutely awesome: you should put it on the "favourite youtube videos" thread, as well! What's the water like for swimming around there?

[It also helps that I bought a tiny bit of Anglesey Mining PLC, so I can now see what I own ... I think it's that reddish-brown pebble at bottom right].

[Pip321]

This thread seems to be missing the biggest fundament world issue which now makes complete sense to the Russia/Ukraine invasion.

So yesterday it was clear for us all to see. The UK comes 2nd in the Eurovision to be pipped by Ukraine….Putins plan of Supporting Ukraines desire to win the Eurovision is now clear for us all to see 

The US gained huge financial rewards (allegedly) from Afghan and Iraq ‘incursions’…and that’s fair enough. Neither of those countries are involved with the Eurovision, so at least underlying objectives of maybe a million deaths is purely financial.

I will knock up a ‘Just Giving’ page later and get you guys onboard. 

Clear and simple, let’s not interfere with the great Eurovision Song Contest renowned for its impartial standards and quality cutting edge musical artists. 

[Shamone]

45 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

It's the food ingredient that has had the most safety assessments done on it, just because it has somehow acquired bad publicity. If you put salt on tomatoes (which are rich in glutamic acid), then you end up with MSG (in solution, as it always is). I even think green tea has a fair amount of glutamic acid. It's harmless, and one of the conditionally essential amino acids (you need it, and can't always synthesise enough from other sources). I'm sure some people can get headaches or whatever from the taste, but then people can get headaches from almost anything.

Unrelated, but I used to work with some people who did research on microwaves for food processing (monomodal cavities, susceptor packaging, that sort of thing). During the 70's and 80's, they were part of a research team that spent its whole time investigating the safety of microwave ovens. Not whether you would get burned, cause sparks, or make your coffee boil over, but purely because there was a media panic that this new microwave cooking technology turns food into something strange and dangerous in some (unspecified) way. It's a bit hard to prove a negative, but the team was basically set up to show that food cooked in a microwave is chemically the same (other than non-uniformity of heating) to food cooked in other ways. Huge expense to prove something that is (almost*) obvious, and all because of a media frenzy.

Now we just inject new medical technologies into children with no long-term safety data and without a risk/benefit analysis, because, well, why the hell not?

 

* I have heard there is some evidence that you can make roux slightly more quickly in a microwave oven than you would expect just from the heating rate, but I don't remember the details. Anyway, we didn't all die from microwaving our cold coffee.

I remember making a cake in our first microwave. It was all burned inside.

[Democorruptcy]

10 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

That's absolutely awesome: you should put it on the "favourite youtube videos" thread, as well! What's the water like for swimming around there?

[It also helps that I bought a tiny bit of Anglesey Mining PLC, so I can now see what I own ... I think it's that reddish-brown pebble at bottom right].

I've put in in the youtube thread as you suggested.

The water is clear but a bit chilly! Porth Wen is a place where I often see groups of kayakers coming ashore, it's one way to get there because there isn't a road or car park actually at it. It takes me about 5 minutes to drive to Bull Bay and then walk a couple of miles but there is a place closer with limited parking (If I told you I'd have to kill you).

[Yadda yadda yadda]

36 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Yep the spineless tossers have seen what's going on in Sri Lanka and shit themselves.

They were all good buddies when the money was being dished out before and during the plandemic now thats finished and their staring down a black hole they are turning on their own.

Supply and demand is an easy concept to understand. Cut out a load of supply (Russia and Ukraine) and the price will go up until demand shrinks to meet the price. Simple. With less oil, gas, fertiliser and grain the price rises until people cannot afford to consume as much.

Ball is in the Government court here. Either explain that inflation is an inevitable cost of stopping/slowing Russia in Ukraine or stop the war. Innocent people in poor countries are going to die as they won't be able to afford the new price of food. Farmers in those countries won't be able to afford fuel and fertiliser so that will escalate things further.

A bit of honesty wouldn't go amiss. All the BoE can do is withdraw money from the economy so prices don't rise as much. This would come at the cost of Government and personal finances.

There are other factors impacting inflation but they all have more to do with Government than the BoE.

[Chewing Grass]

47 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I got talking to a chap with a drone recently and suggested some places he could film. One was Parys Mountain and he obviously went! Porth Wen is another of my regular walks, I was there when he shot that bit and was impressed when he took his drone through the rusty drum!

@Transistor Manmight be interested.

 

Stunningly good stuff and flying.

Q. Is it easy to roam freely on Parys Mountain.

[Calcutta]

Artificial sweeteners are the thing that gets me. 

[Queasing]

2 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Been wondering when pols would realise there's almost unlimited mileage in throwing CBs under the bus ...

Article is not behind the paywall

 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/14/cabinet-ministers-launch-unprecedented-attack-bank-england-inflation/

Of course the at the time superhero Carney is long gone now though I will shed no tears to see bailey under pressure.  

easy place for the gov to direct blame for inflation, of course they are complicit

 

 

[jamtomorrow]

11 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Supply and demand is an easy concept to understand. Cut out a load of supply (Russia and Ukraine) and the price will go up until demand shrinks to meet the price. Simple. With less oil, gas, fertiliser and grain the price rises until people cannot afford to consume as much.

Ball is in the Government court here. Either explain that inflation is an inevitable cost of stopping/slowing Russia in Ukraine or stop the war. Innocent people in poor countries are going to die as they won't be able to afford the new price of food. Farmers in those countries won't be able to afford fuel and fertiliser so that will escalate things further.

A bit of honesty wouldn't go amiss. All the BoE can do is withdraw money from the economy so prices don't rise as much. This would come at the cost of Government and personal finances.

There are other factors impacting inflation but they all have more to do with Government than the BoE.

All true. But they'll blame the BoE anyway. It's an open goal, with goalkeeper Bailey flat on his back near the centre circle with his laces tied together.

[Chewing Grass]

3 minutes ago, Queasing said:

Article is not behind the paywall

 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/14/cabinet-ministers-launch-unprecedented-attack-bank-england-inflation/

Of course the at the time superhero Carney is long gone now though I will shed no tears to see bailey under pressure.  

easy place for the gov to direct blame for inflation, of course they are complicit

 

 

ask yourself what 'independent' means in the 21st Century and whose 'independence' it is...

[belfastchild]

Went out to watch the match in a local golf club last night (I know, shoot me now).
In my defence they had a food and beer promotion on (3.70 a pint of guinness for the duration of the tv coverage).

Anyway, met up with a few guys Im on nodding acquaintance with from local business agencies. Every single one said enjoy it whilst it lasts in one form or another. One is a manager for a well known retail brand, says prices have doubled on things in the last year and now they cant give them away, even with the latest advertised reductions and their work discount they still think they wouldnt be able to make a profit selling themselves. Mentioned sales were 80% off and its only happened in the last month.

I had a ticket for the match yesterday but would have been pushed to go, sold it for 750 quid. Noticed the chelsea end was full and asked about that seeing as they were embargoed and shouldnt be able to sell tickets. Yes, there was an exemption made for the FA cup. Yeah. Although I hear I wouldnt have got that money for a ticket in the chelsea side.

Club virtually emptied last night after the promotion time was up. Went outside, no taxis, everyone walking. That seems to be a recurring theme where there are no taxis in a lot of places in Belfast now. Still, nice evening, 4 mile walk home, lots of people sitting in their gardens drinking. Mcdonalds drive through rammed. Lots of 4 year old pcp cars on the go. Learned almost as much on the walk home as I did talking to the lads in the bar. Maybe I'll try it next weekend, sober.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

3 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Went out to watch the match in a local golf club last night (I know, shoot me now).
In my defence they had a food and beer promotion on (3.70 a pint of guinness for the duration of the tv coverage).

Anyway, met up with a few guys Im on nodding acquaintance with from local business agencies. Every single one said enjoy it whilst it lasts in one form or another. One is a manager for a well known retail brand, says prices have doubled on things in the last year and now they cant give them away, even with the latest advertised reductions and their work discount they still think they wouldnt be able to make a profit selling themselves. Mentioned sales were 80% off and its only happened in the last month.

I had a ticket for the match yesterday but would have been pushed to go, sold it for 750 quid. Noticed the chelsea end was full and asked about that seeing as they were embargoed and shouldnt be able to sell tickets. Yes, there was an exemption made for the FA cup. Yeah. Although I hear I wouldnt have got that money for a ticket in the chelsea side.

Club virtually emptied last night after the promotion time was up. Went outside, no taxis, everyone walking. That seems to be a recurring theme where there are no taxis in a lot of places in Belfast now. Still, nice evening, 4 mile walk home, lots of people sitting in their gardens drinking. Mcdonalds drive through rammed. Lots of 4 year old pcp cars on the go. Learned almost as much on the walk home as I did talking to the lads in the bar. Maybe I'll try it next weekend, sober.

Match was on the BBC. Next year they'll all watch at home with a couple of cans.

[Democorruptcy]

2 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Stunningly good stuff and flying.

Q. Is it easy to roam freely on Parys Mountain.

Yes he had superb control but he did whack it flying through a Porth Wen kiln! It damaged a propeller but he had abag of spares so swapped one and carried on.

Parys is free to roam with lots of different footpaths and you can go right down into the bottom, I go have a wander from my door. Inside the tower he flew his drone through has info about the layout of the mines and there's also a little visitor centre about it down in Amlwch Port. The active mineshaft is not where the shots are from, it's on the other side of the road from the free car park. I've attached a photo of the public viewpoint.

 

[belfastchild]

2 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Match was on the BBC. Next year they'll all watch at home with a couple of cans.

Thats what we all normally do but thought we'd do this for a change. Im hosting the champions league party, projector, etc, get the bbq fired up, couple of home brew kegs on the go. Total cost probably less than I paid yesterday for food and several pints.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Been wondering when pols would realise there's almost unlimited mileage in throwing CBs under the bus ...

Follows that Economist cover story I mentioned a few weeks back.  "Build the narrative and they will come".

[Harley]

50 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Cut out a load of supply (Russia and Ukraine) and the price will go up until demand shrinks to meet the price

And China (that country with the stockpiled food).  See all the ships waiting to dock.  Some are saying we're already at war with China, just we haven't realised it yet!

[AlfredTheLittle]

1 hour ago, jamtomorrow said:

All true. But they'll blame the BoE anyway. It's an open goal, with goalkeeper Bailey flat on his back near the centre circle with his laces tied together.

Except the govt can't scapegoat the BoE too much in case they say fuck it, we really will fight inflation then. And then the govt would be fucked.

[DurhamBorn]

18 minutes ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

Except the govt can't scapegoat the BoE too much in case they say fuck it, we really will fight inflation then. And then the govt would be fucked.

Exactly,most of the inflation is from money printing to fund the governments welfare spending.

[Bobthebuilder]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Next year they'll all watch at home with a couple of cans.

My local corner shop have stopped stocking imported lager, Becks was German brewed, now UK made. I can really tell the difference, taste horrible, gives you a lager lout type drunkness and leaves a bad head in the morning, its almost chemically / alchopop compared to the purity law brewed stuff. All about cost I suppose.

I remember in the 1980s you could not get imported beer, the first time I had an Italian Peroni on tap in a pub was a revelation.

We are going backwards in the name of progress.

When DB said, we are ending a 40 year cycle, I didn't think he meant beer as well.

[baffledbyzirp]

2 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Supply and demand is an easy concept to understand. Cut out a load of supply (Russia and Ukraine) and the price will go up until demand shrinks to meet the price. Simple. With less oil, gas, fertiliser and grain the price rises until people cannot afford to consume as much.

Ball is in the Government court here. Either explain that inflation is an inevitable cost of stopping/slowing Russia in Ukraine or stop the war. Innocent people in poor countries are going to die as they won't be able to afford the new price of food. Farmers in those countries won't be able to afford fuel and fertiliser so that will escalate things further.

A bit of honesty wouldn't go amiss. All the BoE can do is withdraw money from the economy so prices don't rise as much. This would come at the cost of Government and personal finances.

There are other factors impacting inflation but they all have more to do with Government than the BoE.

It was ever thus. The MSM always concentrate on first order consequences rather than analysing indirect probable outcomes.

Do you think the moral outrage would be as palpable if the fukwits who hoover up all the pabulum they are offered by journalists representing political and financial interests were made aware of the positive correlation between increased fuel bills, starvation in Africa, or a huge increase in migration, as the inevitable results of sanctions against Russia? Not likely. The hypocrisy of a generation who wear instantly disposable clothes knocked up in sweat shops in Bangladesh, posting TikTok images on iPhones assembled in sweat shops in China while drinking skinny lattes produced by child exploitation in Africa and Columbia is utterly sickening.

The basic undeniable equation is; sanctions lead to global inflation, food poverty, a challenge to dollar hegemony and potential escalation of conflict into 3rd World War. Never mind, we have Eurovision as a proxy for the UN and the court of public opinion has passed its verdict. May the Lord save our souls.

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

ask yourself what 'independent' means in the 21st Century and whose 'independence' it is...

...add to that the word 'Democracy'...

[MrXxxx]

27 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I remember in the 1980s you could not get imported beer, the first time I had an Italian Peroni on tap in a pub was a revelation.

We are going backwards in the name of progress.

You can say the same about food....look at how it has changed since the advent of the supermarkets and highly processed foods in the late 40s. Then alongside this we had the misinformed government dietry recommendations [based on questionable/badly interpreted research results] for low fat diets of the late 70's....the damage I have done by doing what I thought was right i.e. Government knows best, glad I became educated within this area and now ignore anything the government suggests!