Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Bobthebuilder]

8 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

You can say the same about food....look at how it has changed since the advent of the supermarkets and highly processed foods in the late 40s. Then alongside this we had the misinformed government dietry recommendations [based on questionable/badly interpreted research results] for low fat diets of the late 70's....the damage I have done by doing what I thought was right i.e. Government knows best, glad I became educated within this area and now ignore anything the government suggests!

I remember the government push to get everyone to stop eating butter, and switch to "crappy margarine", because animal fats are the devils work. Never switched myself, thought it was horrible, I have real butter on my toast.

Stayed at a mates place recently, he had 50/50 sliced bread and spreadable marg from the fridge, it was like eating soggy Weetabix.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

42 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly,most of the inflation is from money printing to fund the governments welfare spending.

A lot of the inflation is caused by money printing for welfare. Supply shortage of essentials is a catalyst speeding it up and also acts to distribute the inflation to those areas.

Interesting to see @belfastchild mention clothes prices being crushed. Demand is being destroyed in discretionary areas. There might be some industries hit harder than some of us were expecting. Especially if inflation is concentrated in food and energy. Could yet be a golden chance to stock up on clothes. Might fall further as retailers go bust and not rise until bankrupt stock is shifted. Not sure about electronics, depends if supply of chips is destroyed faster than demand.

[M S E Refugee]

Germany proposes historic Autobahn measure https://www.rt.com/news/555506-germany-speed-limit-fuel-use/

Asthmatics in UK torn between new inhalers and heating bills – media https://www.rt.com/business/555508-rising-cost-uk-health-service/

[Harley]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly,most of the inflation is from money printing to fund the governments welfare spending.

If welfare includes a "pandemic", your poor mates, silly rail lines, now a war, and so on.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

My local corner shop have stopped stocking imported lager, Becks was German brewed, now UK made. I can really tell the difference, taste horrible, gives you a lager lout type drunkness and leaves a bad head in the morning, its almost chemically / alchopop compared to the purity law brewed stuff. All about cost I suppose.

I remember in the 1980s you could not get imported beer, the first time I had an Italian Peroni on tap in a pub was a revelation.

We are going backwards in the name of progress.

When DB said, we are ending a 40 year cycle, I didn't think he meant beer as well.

I lived in Germany and can confirm this to be true.  After many experiments, I only ever suffered from dehydration and other alcohol effects the next morning, never from the absent chemicals.  Same with my time in Goa with bottles Kingfisher (simarily brewed in the UK for the UK).  But I knew this having once wrote a thesis on the matter, well the economics of the matter! 

[Harley]

10 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Germany proposes historic Autobahn measure https://www.rt.com/news/555506-germany-speed-limit-fuel-use/

I'm calling it.  It's over.  

[DurhamBorn]

8 minutes ago, Harley said:

If welfare includes a "pandemic", your poor mates, silly rail lines, now a war, and so on.

Indeed,but if you go back to Blair and Brown the printing since is almost equal to the working age welfare bill since.Most welfare goes into direct consumption,and this inflation is because we are consuming too much,and not investing in producing.I would say to any government,reducing the welfare budget is critical.Of there are never ending levels of waste elsewhere,but welfare is the constant one.

[Harley]

51 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

A lot of the inflation is caused by money printing for welfare. Supply shortage of essentials is a catalyst speeding it up and also acts to distribute the inflation to those areas.

Interesting to see @belfastchild mention clothes prices being crushed. Demand is being destroyed in discretionary areas. There might be some industries hit harder than some of us were expecting. Especially if inflation is concentrated in food and energy. Could yet be a golden chance to stock up on clothes. Might fall further as retailers go bust and not rise until bankrupt stock is shifted. Not sure about electronics, depends if supply of chips is destroyed faster than demand.

Re.  my weekly stock screens.  The first thing I do is flag stocks that are macropoo.  That kills off quite a few.  Not too harsh in case my arrogance misses a trick but plenty of footware and apparel companies bite the dust.  My partner's mum has recounted stories of her shoeless childhood and getting a second hand pair from the Methodists at Christmas.  Only a generation ago

[Bobthebuilder]

14 minutes ago, Harley said:

After many experiments

I have just got back from Lidl.

[baffledbyzirp]

11 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Indeed,but if you go back to Blair and Brown the printing since is almost equal to the working age welfare bill since.Most welfare goes into direct consumption,and this inflation is because we are consuming too much,and not investing in producing.I would say to any government,reducing the welfare budget is critical.Of there are never ending levels of waste elsewhere,but welfare is the constant one.

The welfare system is neither well nor fair. 

[DurhamBorn]

The UAE move into Vodafone might be the start of the consolidation of the industry.Countries making huge amounts from energy are looking to invest in other solid inflation proofed areas as well.Sterling falling gives them a perfect time to load up.Hopefully with big pocket shareholders being added,if there ever was a bid for the company at least they would force a high price.I suspect they might also fancy merging some areas with VOD in Africa as well.

[ONC]

I was very fortunate to have brought lots of Intrepid Potash, i averaged about $10. Then it had a great run, at 200% up I started to sell, then sold all by $38. Needless to say I was very very happy at ~250% return  (Big thanks to DB and all!)

just checked share price again today, it peaked at $120 . Wow.  hope some people on here hit the top.

Definitely a lesson to learn. Just because a share has gone up a lot, it can go up much more.   Next time I will Try to not sell all, but always retain some, just in case.

[Calcutta]

57 minutes ago, Harley said:

I lived in Germany and can confirm this to be true.  After many experiments, I only ever suffered from dehydration and other alcohol effects the next morning, never from the absent chemicals.  Same with my time in Goa with bottles Kingfisher (simarily brewed in the UK for the UK).  But I knew this having once wrote a thesis on the matter, well the economics of the matter! 

Indian beer gives me the worst hangovers and headaches of any. There's something added into it, glycerin maybe, that's what does the damage. 

[invalid]

Thoughts on this short article in the Times?

We may have a glut but surely its going to be more expensive? Short term fix or long term solution?

 

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thetimes.co.uk%2Farticle%2Fglut-of-gas-in-uk-drives-wholesale-price-down-to-pre-crisis-levels-pd5s5shzk

 

Wholesale gas prices for next-day delivery in Britain have tumbled to pre-energy crisis lows that are a fifth of the price in Europe because of an unprecedented glut of liquefied natural gas.

Demand for gas in Britain has dropped with warmer weather and there is not enough pipeline capacity to transport all the gas that has arrived in the country to mainland Europe where it is needed, analysts say.

Europe is seeking liquefied natural gas to replace piped supplies from Russia and fill up storage facilities before winter but does not have enough terminals to import all its needs.

LNG cargoes have been arriving at terminals in Britain with the aim of transferring them through the national network and on to Europe via subsea pipelines.

 

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Pip321 said:

So yesterday it was clear for us all to see. The UK comes 2nd in the Eurovision to be pipped by Ukraine….Putins plan of Supporting Ukraines desire to win the Eurovision is now clear for us all to see.

Clear and simple, let’s not interfere with the great Eurovision Song Contest renowned for its impartial standards and quality cutting edge musical artists. 

Some postulate that it is covert subversion, others think that Eurovision is wholy totally unaware of the dangers it runs by displaying to Joe Public the difference in outcomes between operating 'direct democracy' (ie that voting system gave Ukraine the song contest win) and 'representative democracy' (ie that system gave UK the song contest win)....   or am I overthinking this?

[sancho panza]

Very true imho

 

[Noallegiance]

[Pip321]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

Some postulate that it is covert subversion, others think that Eurovision is wholy totally unaware of the dangers it runs by displaying to Joe Public the difference in outcomes between operating 'direct democracy' (ie that voting system gave Ukraine the song contest win) and 'representative democracy' (ie that system gave UK the song contest win)....   or am I overthinking this?

I do understand the point you make, it might be you are over thinking it….I reflected for a while and my considered opinion is that the Eurovision and it’s voting process was a bunch of glittery wank.

I must clarify though, I am no expert 😆😆

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Calcutta said:

Indian beer gives me the worst hangovers and headaches of any. There's something added into it, glycerin maybe, that's what does the damage. 

UK brewed?  I noticed the difference after coming back.  There was a period of Indian brewed bottles but then they said UK brewed.  Oh, sitting stranded in rocking chair in a shack on an empty beach with a bottle of K after a lunch of fresh prawns in garlic, the beach being too hot to walk on! 

[Bobthebuilder]

5 minutes ago, Harley said:

UK brewed?  I noticed the difference after coming back.  There was a period of Indian brewed bottles but then they said UK brewed.  Oh, sitting stranded in rocking chair in a shack on an empty beach with a bottle of K after fresh prawns in garlic, the beach being too hot to walk on!

When I used to live in Hackney a few shops catered for the local Africans, Nigerian Star lager is a top tipple.

Is there any beer futures we should be buying?

 

[belfastchild]

3 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Interesting to see @belfastchild mention clothes prices being crushed. Demand is being destroyed in discretionary areas. There might be some industries hit harder than some of us were expecting. Especially if inflation is concentrated in food and energy. Could yet be a golden chance to stock up on clothes. Might fall further as retailers go bust and not rise until bankrupt stock is shifted.

Just been told a similar story about numbers for expensive items in diy type store, said it reflected similar in a garden centre. Bbqs, outdoor furniture etc etc. Doubled in price but maybe everyone got them in lockdown?

Drove past lidl this afternoon, car park completely full. Retail shopping centre not so. Im not normally anywhere near on a Sunday but stopped me going in to lidl to pick up some compost, will do it during the week - shoulda tried the diy shed!

Will see if the offer emails materialise.

[invalid]

4 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I read that, and then looked up this:

UK natural gas futures still 200-250p a therm for near months. I have no idea what that article is reporting, but it's not a glut.

https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5253320&span=1

 

So my take on it is that its summer in the UK, we have low demand and not much storage. A whole load of expensive LNG has come in by boat and they are now struggling to send it to the EU via a tiny pipe. 

Having lots of expensive gas is not the same as having lots of cheap gas?

 

 

[invalid]

4 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I bet that that incoming LNG has been sold and spoken fir in Europe before arriving, which is why UK futures are remaining expensive thoughout the year. Bear in mind that the price for years in the UK was around 50p a therm, not 250p.

 

Thanks, that makes sense. So all that is really likely happening is that Europe is making use of our ports, LNG plants and the pipeline to increase their import capacity?

[MrXxxx]

7 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

What man doesn't reckon up this percentage?! What's the point of us otherwise? Oh yeah sorry I forget we have the police to cover that off nowadays

Yeah right, have you seen the state of them recently?...too much driving around in cars and eating on their overtime shifts!...most of the ones i've seen wouldn't be able to keep up with me running down the road, and I am 20 yrs older....but then I suppose that's what the helicopters are for i.e when they actually have to chase someone without using a car!

[MrXxxx]

6 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

The BOE is no more independent than my Labrador, imo.

 

and he/she is probably more effective at chasing a stick than they are at 'chasing' [and catching] inflation! :-)))