Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Bobthebuilder]

55 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

Turning to the meat of the video

Thanks for posting that.

My take from it is, meat and diary products look like they might well double from where we are now.

To continue with my beer story. I have started going to Lidl for the Perlenbacher beer, buy a few items like rice, tins, pasta every visit to stock up for the same price as the becks beer from the corner shop. Should have started doing this ages ago but, hated the mask rules so stayed away from supermarkets during that time.

Also heads up to whoever it was that mentioned South African wine, got a 14% bottle of shiraz for £3.89 today.

Cheers.

[Don Coglione]

5 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Also heads up to whoever it was that mentioned South African wine, got a 14% bottle of shiraz for £3.89 today.

Christ, that is going to hurt tomorrow!

[Chewing Grass]

20 minutes ago, BadAlchemy said:

And still the local councils around here are approving prime agricultural land to be used for exercising pet dogs, and 'dog daycare' (which, IMO,  is an 'end of days' misallocation of people's time, and a scandalous misuse of food growing resource at a time when people are about to begin starving around the world in growing numbers).

It's horses round me and I can't think of a bigger waste as the daft bastards then buy knackered old Ford Cargos to cart them around in.

[Lightscribe]

46 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Thanks for posting that.

My take from it is, meat and diary products look like they might well double from where we are now.

To continue with my beer story. I have started going to Lidl for the Perlenbacher beer, buy a few items like rice, tins, pasta every visit to stock up for the same price as the becks beer from the corner shop. Should have started doing this ages ago but, hated the mask rules so stayed away from supermarkets during that time.

Also heads up to whoever it was that mentioned South African wine, got a 14% bottle of shiraz for £3.89 today.

Cheers.

If you do fancy ‘splashing out’ in Lidl the Azinhaga De Ouro Reserva Douro is very good for the price at £5.99. 

https://www.decanter.com/wine-reviews/portugal/douro-valley/lidl-azinhaga-de-ouro-reserva-douro-douro-valley-2017-36387

[Bricormortis]

 

deleted post

[Option5]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

Putin may even be the one imposing import tarriffs and quotas in future!

I'm not sure Putin has a future.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Thanks for posting that.

My take from it is, meat and diary products look like they might well double from where we are now.

To continue with my beer story. I have started going to Lidl for the Perlenbacher beer, buy a few items like rice, tins, pasta every visit to stock up for the same price as the becks beer from the corner shop. Should have started doing this ages ago but, hated the mask rules so stayed away from supermarkets during that time.

Also heads up to whoever it was that mentioned South African wine, got a 14% bottle of shiraz for £3.89 today.

Cheers.

I just didnt wear a mask 

[DurhamBorn]

47 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

It's horses round me and I can't think of a bigger waste as the daft bastards then buy knackered old Ford Cargos to cart them around in.

I look around at all the land that was once Oak forests around here and now its grass fields for horses everywhere.What an utter waste.I frighten them when driving past when i get chance.Should mostly be glue.

[Axeman123]

13 minutes ago, Option5 said:

I'm not sure Putin has a future.

Well, he is a 70 year old man. He is also rumoured to have health issues.

That said he could kill Joe Biden in a brawl IMO, and probably hurt Macron or BoJo badly enough they would lose the will to fight. Also Putin may be trapped in a declining meatsuit, but his mind seems very sharp. Joe Biden in contrast looks like he could die within the hour, and has for months, while his brain is already mush.

[janch]

Shaun Richards covered China today:

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/

The official view is that all the problems are lockdown related. But there is more to it than that as we have been observing the issues of the property sector for a while now. Also the central bank eased policy on the 24th of April.

There seems to be a big slowdown in their property market.

[JMD]

Russel Napier runs through his financial repression thesis. He also suggests buying the steel makers and northern UK property! I think @DurhamBorn might be pleasantly pleased to hear Napier's thoughts, and actually, Napier does say some interesting things about the property market generally from 36:00mins. He also introduces the theme of re-equitisation, which he believes will be forced upon companies once/if governments become strong enough to implement such policies.                                                                                          https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-TEDSyDwzlg

[geordie_lurch]

Sri Lanka spiraling into even more chaos - https://news.sky.com/story/sri-lanka-petrol-stocks-drop-to-just-one-day-and-possible-power-outages-of-up-to-15-hours-new-pm-warns-12614612

Crisis-hit Sri Lanka has enough petrol left for only one day, new leader warns

Sri Lanka only has enough petrol stocks to last a single day, with the possibility of power outages lasting up to 15 hours a day, the country's new prime minister has warned.

In his first address to the nation since his controversial appointment last week, Ranil Wickremesinghe said there is also a "grave concern" about the shortage of 14 medicines, with a particular lack of heart disease drugs and the anti-rabies vaccine - the latter of which has no alternative treatment.

"Payments have not been made for four months to suppliers of medicine, medical equipment, and food for patients," said Mr Wickremesinghe.

He warned that the next couple of months "will be the most difficult ones of our lives. We must prepare ourselves to make some sacrifices and face the challenges of this period".

Still this remix of Greta Thunberg's How Dare You speech might cheers us all up

 

[HousePriceMania]

On 14/05/2022 at 17:23, Harley said:

PS:  I love being able to work on those machines like the old days with cars and bikes.  Another fortune saved.

 

Yeah, love tinkering, my hands were covered in oil most of the weekend

[Castlevania]

I’ve finally joined the club. Per HL my portfolio isn’t as diverse as it could be.

 

[Don Coglione]

Just now, Castlevania said:

I’ve finally joined the club. Per HL my portfolio isn’t as diverse as it could be.

 

I joined the club a few weeks ago, but I had the last laugh - I sold off nearly everything!

 

[Axeman123]

Have we had this yet?:

https://plus2.credit-suisse.com/shorturlpdf.html?v=54t3-WTBd-V

Latest Zoltan Poszar "ride of the Volkyries"

(he of the well received "commodity chokepoints and QT")

Reading it now, will give some thoughts later.

Edit: His whole point is that the fed is intentionally tightening conditions to reduce inflation by reducing asset values, and that curve inversions and volatility are therefore a feature rather than a bug which will not slow fed action. He predicts much more to come, and mentions the S&P500 at perhaps 2500!

He makes a fair point that reflating asset values post 2008 was merely a means to an end for the fed, namely fighting deflation. Now that inflation is the problem he expects them to be just as effective going in the opposite direction. He even compares this ("closing the wealth window") to the closing of the gold window.

I don't buy it overall. This just seems to be the narrative of peak tightening extrapolated. I notice that it is entirely based on psychological/linguistic analysis of public statements, when Zoltan is renowned for analysing financial plumbing. His whole "volkyries" shtick is very catchy, but rather implies he is being self indulgent rather than self-critically analytic.

[Transistor Man]

 

[geordie_lurch]

53 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

 

3 meals from anarchy

Yep there's a rather depressing post here saying this is only the beginning: http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/now-we-are-being-told-to-expect-food-and-diesel-shortages-for-the-foreseeable-future/ and I agree

"If you think that the food and diesel shortages are bad now, then you will be absolutely horrified by what the globe is experiencing by the end of the year.  All over the planet, food production is being crippled by an unprecedented confluence of factors.  The war in Ukraine, extremely bizarre weather patterns, nightmarish plagues and a historic fertilizer crisis have combined to create a “perfect storm” that isn’t going away any time soon.  As a result, the food that won’t be grown in 2022 will become an extremely severe global problem by the end of this calendar year.  Global wheat prices have already risen by more than 40 percent since the start of 2022, but this is just the beginning."

Also mentions the baby formula shortage in the USA

"If you had told me six months ago that we would be dealing with the worst baby formula shortage in U.S. history in the middle of 2022, I am not sure that I would have believed you.

But that is precisely what we are now facing.  One young couple in Florida searched stores in their area for four hours and couldn’t find anything…"

 

[BadAlchemy]

2 hours ago, Castlevania said:

I’ve finally joined the club. Per HL my portfolio isn’t as diverse as it could be.

 

#metoo

Let me guess.. you should consider funds instead of buying individual stocks? 

(Would that be anything to do with the £200 cap on share charges, HL?)

I am now on the HL re-education program with regular emails about investment 'diversity'. On the naughty step again!

[Yadda yadda yadda]

12 minutes ago, Transistor Man said:

 

Their agenda for the middle class, destruction, isn't explained in that White House statement.

Interesting to see a (former) democratic party funder and propagandist fall out with the administration.

[Castlevania]

2 minutes ago, BadAlchemy said:

#metoo

Let me guess.. you should consider funds instead of buying individual stocks? 

(Would that be anything to do with the £200 cap on share charges, HL?)

I am now on the HL re-education program with regular emails about investment 'diversity'. On the naughty step again!

I haven’t a clue as to what’s triggered it. My portfolio composition hasn’t materially changed over the past few weeks, and is arguably more diverse now, unless I don’t have enough UK exposure or something.

[leonardratso]

8 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

I haven’t a clue as to what’s triggered it. My portfolio composition hasn’t materially changed over the past few weeks, and is arguably more diverse now, unless I don’t have enough UK exposure or something.

they dont want you missing out on the tsla and amazon melt up is all. Rich customers are happy cutomers, but there again losers pay our bills as ladbrokes always say.

[Bobthebuilder]

29 minutes ago, BadAlchemy said:

#metoo

Let me guess.. you should consider funds instead of buying individual stocks? 

(Would that be anything to do with the £200 cap on share charges, HL?)

I am now on the HL re-education program with regular emails about investment 'diversity'. On the naughty step again!

I had the email a few weeks ago, I just took it as "you are making too much money out of us, you little shit".

[Chewing Grass]

3 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Sri Lanka spiraling into even more chaos - https://news.sky.com/story/sri-lanka-petrol-stocks-drop-to-just-one-day-and-possible-power-outages-of-up-to-15-hours-new-pm-warns-12614612

Crisis-hit Sri Lanka has enough petrol left for only one day, new leader warns

Sri Lanka only has enough petrol stocks to last a single day, with the possibility of power outages lasting up to 15 hours a day, the country's new prime minister has warned.

In his first address to the nation since his controversial appointment last week, Ranil Wickremesinghe said there is also a "grave concern" about the shortage of 14 medicines, with a particular lack of heart disease drugs and the anti-rabies vaccine - the latter of which has no alternative treatment.

"Payments have not been made for four months to suppliers of medicine, medical equipment, and food for patients," said Mr Wickremesinghe.

He warned that the next couple of months "will be the most difficult ones of our lives. We must prepare ourselves to make some sacrifices and face the challenges of this period".

Still this remix of Greta Thunberg's How Dare You speech might cheers us all up

 

Just had a root and looked at European electricity prices, they are shown in Euros per MWH.

Knowing what the average Romanian and Bulgarian earns in the glorious socialist republic of Euro Land (like Animal Farm some 'Members' are more equal than others)  how is it possible for them to pay the highest amount in Europe and twice the British price.

Tesla's all round everyone.

Cheers.

[HousePriceMania]

3 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Sri Lanka spiraling into even more chaos - https://news.sky.com/story/sri-lanka-petrol-stocks-drop-to-just-one-day-and-possible-power-outages-of-up-to-15-hours-new-pm-warns-12614612

Crisis-hit Sri Lanka has enough petrol left for only one day, new leader warns

Sri Lanka only has enough petrol stocks to last a single day, with the possibility of power outages lasting up to 15 hours a day, the country's new prime minister has warned.

In his first address to the nation since his controversial appointment last week, Ranil Wickremesinghe said there is also a "grave concern" about the shortage of 14 medicines, with a particular lack of heart disease drugs and the anti-rabies vaccine - the latter of which has no alternative treatment.

"Payments have not been made for four months to suppliers of medicine, medical equipment, and food for patients," said Mr Wickremesinghe.

He warned that the next couple of months "will be the most difficult ones of our lives. We must prepare ourselves to make some sacrifices and face the challenges of this period".

Still this remix of Greta Thunberg's How Dare You speech might cheers us all up

 

Just been to little and bought 2 huge bags of rice, lasts till 2025.

Just in case you understand