Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Joncrete Cungle]

21 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Bought at £4.50,sold at £34ish 15 years later same time i sold BAT,i hated selling my baccy,like losing the love of your life,incredible to me over the years.I hoped they would fall for a re-entry as the cycle ended,but never expected them to go as low.I bought a few back at £23,but bough very heavily down near the lows.Now holding my big holding once again.In everything i do i think buying and holding baccy,then selling at those tops then buying back where the best investments iv ever made.

Well apart from Mosaic 9% of family wealth in at the bottom  wish i still smoked id have a Lambert.

All those pensions blighted by esg missing out, criminal really!

[Democorruptcy]

7 minutes ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

All those pensions blighted by esg missing out, criminal really!

Bless them.

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, harp said:

IMB 

Wossers 

[Harley]

I'll start with this:

Then move on to this (I think this was the one):

Where he warns against the alternative yield investing (something I've been doing).  Well at least stuff with yields over say 5%.

I have a lot of time for the Prof.  I do focus on total returns with my trend following but have a minimum 3% yield requirement.  I need to take time out and think.  

Spolier:  Answer as is probably the usual "everything in moderation"! 

[HousePriceMania]

12 hours ago, snaga said:

I've still got a big sack of rice I bought Feb 2020. Wife keeps threatening to take it to the food bank.

She's my canary, when she stops threatening I'll know its time to buy more.

I'll  leave the rice unopened, if it expires I'll buy more in 2025.  We can out live a lot of people with 20Kg of rice.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Nice In-depth thread on America's looming diesel shortage and the implications.

 

It really is looking deliberate at this point.

[Harley]

More interesting stuff on IBTL.  A complex thriller of the down and out US long bond wound up with the harrowing plight of cable! 

To recap the story so far (as I said I'll try)....

09May22 marked a bottom on the daily.  See the red (dragonfly?) doji candle.  That says the market opened, explored the depths of Hades, and decided better, settling at close to the open price.  For collaboration, note the two preceding candles which thumped lower, closing the day close to/at their lowest intra day price.  Quite typical.

So off we go the next day with a very strong green candle.  Almost no wicks there, a slam dunk.

But then a massive red hammer like candle.  Like "hang on, are we sure?" as the candle wick hits close to the prior day's open.

Next day, with the votes in (or traps laid!), they decide to follow through with a "bullish" gap up (in quotes 'cause.....yes.....all together now....."gaps get filled"!).  

Sure enough the next two days fill the gap and that earlier candle is seen to be a bit of a bearish top (spinning, island, whatever).

Gap filled Mr Market decides it was all just too much fun and goes back to almost where it was, but with another gap to fill and room to form an upward sloping trend line (the other techs not so sure though).

So all in all, a bit like one of these:

But that's IBTL in GBP so mostly BS but a nice plot.  Probably more Barbara Cartland than a Haynes manual!  Not so dramatic in the underlying TLT, yet.......! 

PS:  But remember folks, this is as much about currencies as the US long bond.

PPS:  Looks like my poo-poo of that bullish engulfing candle tech (on TLT) I think I posted was, well, a bit poo-poo (atm, he/she may well be right soon, especially with a Fed wobbles scenario!).  

[geordie_lurch]

22 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Nice In-depth thread on America's looming diesel shortage and the implications.

 

It really is looking deliberate at this point.

Yep and they just don't have the refineries to ease the situation anytime soon as the following tweet brilliantly illustrates

 

[HousePriceMania]

33 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Nice In-depth thread on America's looming diesel shortage and the implications.

 

It really is looking deliberate at this point.

I've been debating on whether or not to get an e-bike, just a basic folding one.  I think it's probably a good idea.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

I'll start with this:

Then move on to this (I think this was the one):

Where he warns against the alternative yield investing (something I've been doing).  Well at least stuff with yields over say 5%.

I have a lot of time for the Prof.  I do focus on total returns with my trend following but have a minimum 3% yield requirement.  I need to take time out and think.  

Spolier:  Answer as is probably the usual "everything in moderation"! 

The thing they miss i think is price paid and where in the cycle.In simple terms,start of cycle is where you get your easy gains,if your right on the cycle,,,we were.Then you bank some of those easy gains and buy areas where gains wont be easy or big,but will hopefully just keep ahead of inflation.Prime example is my partners SIPP.I sold DRAX she 3.7x and bought telcos with the capital,on those my target is 6% divis and 2.5% increases on divs pa by cycle end,so rough 8.5% return pa if earnings are rated the same.People need to look at the cycle as a whole not from now on,back a week etc.March 20 to roughly March 28/29/30 is what matters.Iv not seen any podcast or probably anyone who has matched the hive mind on this thread considering we buy real companies without leverage and keep diverse,even is sometimes we slip over that a bit.Plus none of them own the amount of screws you do 

[snaga]

48 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Yep and they just don't have the refineries to ease the situation anytime soon as the following tweet brilliantly illustrates

 

I assume this will cause contagion in the UK/EU? what's our diesel situation?

[working woman]

Re BTL and landlords wanting to sell in the future.

I bought a Persimmon flat about 12 years ago. (I know, I know, hindsight is a wonderful thing).

I was downsizing and it is the only property I own - I like a simple life. 

There are about 85 flats in my development plus lots of other new blocks have been built by other builders in the area, and still building.

I think about 1/3rd in my block are BTL. 

We passed the cladding test, EWS1 - many blocks didn't.

The main issue now for many leaseholders is staircasing  Ground Rents where they go up every 10 years or so. Mine was £250, currently £350..

I can afford it, but since buying a new issue cropped up, over £250, some lenders won't lend. We tried to sell last year and the buyer's lender wouldn't lend.  Some of the flats have sold over the last year or so, since the Ground Rent went up to £350,  they seem to have been sold to BTL or older cash buyers. I know who to try to sell to now. Any BTL hoping to sell now, thinking it will be easy is in for a nasty suprise. 

Some people are unscrupulous. one of my neighbours when he bought, said the lease document page that gave details of the Ground Rent had been removed. Doesn't say much for his solicitor.

There are a couple of solutions, the lender can ask the seller to take out an Indemnity Insurance to cover the lender in case the buyer doesn't pay the Ground Rent.

Also, the Govt. is on the case, changes were due next April, but something has changed recently, along the lines of if your Ground Rent staircases upwards, your future Ground Rent can be reduced to the current Ground Rent. So I should be able to hopefully get the rest of my lease reduced to £350pa and I hope to change the next 25 years down to £250, so it is mortgageable. I will be taking legal advice on that beforehand though. 

it is all a nonsense that Lenders won't lend. I can understand why. Once your Ground Rent goes over £250pa, the Landlord has the right to take your property off you if you don't pay your Ground Rent, meaning the lender loose their asset. 

I'm not sure what the lender thinks if you want to remortgage onto a new rate.

I am on the Management group for my flats, along with a few BTLers, one in particular owned 3 flats, sold one, then bought several holiday homes. I had trouble keeping my mouth shut when on a recent site visit he said to someone else, come and see my new car, and at last weeks online meeting mentioned he is off on a lovely holiday to New York and Maine. Hmmm, yes, I know all about the Govt giving out around £15k to holiday home owners. He must have got at least £30-45K.  Spending it all on new cars and holidays - Grrrrrrrr - that is not what it was for. 

 

[Joncrete Cungle]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Nice In-depth thread on America's looming diesel shortage and the implications.

 

It really is looking deliberate at this point.

Not going to help US agriculture nor the rest of the world. Imagine spending £1000 a ton fert and record crop prices. But you can't get any diesel to harvest with.....

 

[working woman]

@Harley Thank you for posting that candle chart update. What a roller coaster ride. The Green top, is almost a "Shooting star", as it has a long upward "tail?"which indicates the next move is down, which it did.  Like a damp squib firework, that has an initial shoot up, but then quickly falls away. 

 Looking forward to the next installment, I'm going with a down or sideways move next, definately not upwards just yet. 

 

 

 

 

[Harley]

54 minutes ago, snaga said:

......what's our diesel situation?

IMO bad enough for me to buy an e-bike thing!

[Starsend]

39 minutes ago, working woman said:

Re BTL and landlords wanting to sell in the future.

I bought a Persimmon flat about 12 years ago. (I know, I know, hindsight is a wonderful thing).

I was downsizing and it is the only property I own - I like a simple life. 

There are about 85 flats in my development plus lots of other new blocks have been built by other builders in the area, and still building.

I think about 1/3rd in my block are BTL. 

We passed the cladding test, EWS1 - many blocks didn't.

The main issue now for many leaseholders is staircasing  Ground Rents where they go up every 10 years or so. Mine was £250, currently £350..

I can afford it, but since buying a new issue cropped up, over £250, some lenders won't lend. We tried to sell last year and the buyer's lender wouldn't lend.  Some of the flats have sold over the last year or so, since the Ground Rent went up to £350,  they seem to have been sold to BTL or older cash buyers. I know who to try to sell to now. Any BTL hoping to sell now, thinking it will be easy is in for a nasty suprise. 

Some people are unscrupulous. one of my neighbours when he bought, said the lease document page that gave details of the Ground Rent had been removed. Doesn't say much for his solicitor.

There are a couple of solutions, the lender can ask the seller to take out an Indemnity Insurance to cover the lender in case the buyer doesn't pay the Ground Rent.

Also, the Govt. is on the case, changes were due next April, but something has changed recently, along the lines of if your Ground Rent staircases upwards, your future Ground Rent can be reduced to the current Ground Rent. So I should be able to hopefully get the rest of my lease reduced to £350pa and I hope to change the next 25 years down to £250, so it is mortgageable. I will be taking legal advice on that beforehand though. 

it is all a nonsense that Lenders won't lend. I can understand why. Once your Ground Rent goes over £250pa, the Landlord has the right to take your property off you if you don't pay your Ground Rent, meaning the lender loose their asset. 

I'm not sure what the lender thinks if you want to remortgage onto a new rate.

I am on the Management group for my flats, along with a few BTLers, one in particular owned 3 flats, sold one, then bought several holiday homes. I had trouble keeping my mouth shut when on a recent site visit he said to someone else, come and see my new car, and at last weeks online meeting mentioned he is off on a lovely holiday to New York and Maine. Hmmm, yes, I know all about the Govt giving out around £15k to holiday home owners. He must have got at least £30-45K.  Spending it all on new cars and holidays - Grrrrrrrr - that is not what it was for. 

 

I also know of people gifted tens of thousands of pounds because they own multiple homes and rent one out. They took money out of my last pay packet to pay for this (and every one going forward) while at the same time it's almost impossible to see a doctor in a country rapidly becoming third world.

They also gave away billions in bounce back loans, much of it to their favourite people (anybody not British) who have now absconded for good. They think I'm going to pay for that as well.

The above in itself is astonishing in Britain, that our politicians have become so incompetent and corrupt. The above of course is just the tip of the iceberg.

I've said it before, if they were dragged out and hung from the nearest lamppost, while I wouldn't condone such action I'd definitely get a ringside seat and bring along a flask and some cheese and pickle sarnies.

 

[geordie_lurch]

Why are you all buying ebikes - surely the cost of having to charge them as electricity prices are also rising isn't very DOSBOD's like and you will be missing out on the important health benefits of actually cycling a standard bike properly

If you get a decent normal bike for 50% of the price of an ebike you can put a couple of panniers on it to bring home the yellow stickered reduced stuff from the supermarket and you will be better off financially and health wise

[Harley]

34 minutes ago, working woman said:

@Harley Thank you for posting that candle chart update. What a roller coaster ride. The Green top, is almost a "Shooting star", as it has a long upward "tail?"which indicates the next move is down, which it did.  Like a damp squib firework, that has an initial shoot up, but then quickly falls away. 

 Looking forward to the next installment, I'm going with a down or sideways move next, definately not upwards just yet. 

Not sure (or fussed!), but the guides are only that and context is key....

"A shooting star is a bearish candlestick with a long upper shadow, little or no lower shadow, and a small real body near the low of the day. It appears after an uptrend.  Said differently, a shooting star is a type of candlestick that forms when a security opens, advances significantly, but then closes the day near the open again.

For a candlestick to be considered a shooting star, the formation must appear during a price advance. Also, the distance between the highest price of the day and the opening price must be more than twice as large as the shooting star's body. There should be little to no shadow below the real body".

So like an inverted hammer, in looks if not context.

This is probably key...

"In the end, it’s not a big deal if you can’t tell the difference. What is important is that both of these candlestick patterns send a message of indecision amongst buyers and sellers, which is further strengthened if any of these two patterns takes place at the end of an uptrend or downtrend".

But for old me the dailies are a little too noisy so I prefer the weekliy and monthly which IMO currently say "maybe I'll base here".  But cable is key.

With the HA candle equivalents backing that basing/indecision up (the weekly is easing up and the monthly is hearing the rumour)...

Disclaimer:  DYOR, discussion purposes only!

[belfastchild]

7 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Why are you all buying ebikes

Solar panels, lazy bastard.

Well ok, dodgy knee which makes proper cycling a right pain, although I did buy a new bike last year after the e-bike gave me the confidence.
and promptly buggered my knee up again for 6 months.

[DurhamBorn]

51 minutes ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

Not going to help US agriculture nor the rest of the world. Imagine spending £1000 a ton fert and record crop prices. But you can't get any diesel to harvest with.....

 

It was tractors becoming idle that caused the Great Depression,though you dont hear that much,defaults on the loans kicked it all off.

[DurhamBorn]

5 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Solar panels, lazy bastard.

Well ok, dodgy knee which makes proper cycling a right pain, although I did buy a new bike last year after the e-bike gave me the confidence.
and promptly buggered my knee up again for 6 months.

Whats the law on being drunk on one?,can you get folding ones you could take in a pub easy enough?

[kibuc]

13 hours ago, sancho panza said:

lot of good reading and ints there K.Apprecaite you putting it out there for free.In all fairness I pay for advice that's now ehre near as good as this.You need your own newsletrer

I hope people don't mistake my verbal diarrhea here for proper due diligence  You now better than most that those newsletter guys can simultaneously assess geology, operations and financials with great attention to detail while adding intimate knowledge of executives, and they still get it wrong just as often as not. Meanwhile, you can ask me why I prefer Cassiar to Revival Gold and you'll only get long and uncomfortable silence. I may know just a smidgen more about selected miners than other posters here but it's still very superficial nonetheless.

[Lightscribe]

11 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Why are you all buying ebikes - surely the cost of having to charge them as electricity prices are also rising isn't very DOSBOD's like and you will be missing out on the important health benefits of actually cycling a standard bike properly

If you get a decent normal bike for 50% of the price of an ebike you can put a couple of panniers on it to bring home the yellow reduced stuff from the supermarket and you will be better off financially and health wise

Who said anything about paying for electricity? 

You’ll tire from fighting off all the zombies in the apocalypse when carrying out supply raids and energy conservation will be paramount, at least with electric you’ll be able to make a quick getaway.

[Harley]

9 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Whats the law on being drunk on one?,can you get folding ones you could take in a pub easy enough?

And I'd like to say that question is why none of us are employable, but I'll probably be wrong! 

[Harley]

1 minute ago, Lightscribe said:

Who said anything about paying for electricity? 

You’ll tire from fighting off all the zombies in the apocalypse when carrying out supply raids and energy conservation will be paramount, at least with electric you’ll be able to make a quick getaway.

That's what started me off but a few grand later and better value for money......  Although the portability is useful if limited.