Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[JMD]

33 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Yeah. Have purchased 80% of my target in JAPAY but even that’s up around 10% in GBP.

I wanted to buy some KT&G, but unfortunately don't have access to it via my ii sipp/HL ISA.                          ...it really stings when that happens, in fact had similar predicament today when trying unsuccessfully to buy the Polish silver/copper global mining outfit KGHM. 

[kibuc]

15 hours ago, JMD said:

Thank you Kibuc for your generous reply, really great info. Plus there's so much silver, which for me makes it feel like it's Christmas!!    Btw Is your '3-5-2' spread of holdings intentional? 

It was my formation of choice in Hattrick and Sensible Soccer so it only made sense to apply it to every other area of life.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, belfastchild said:

Quite a sad response this one but...
...did a postgrad recently in environmental/energy stuff and one of the exercises was about how environmental stuff like that actually was. EV vs car vs walking vs bike etc. The extra energy needed to cycle/walk to work had a sweet spot after which it was more environmentally friendly to take the petrol or pile 4 people into a diesel.
The walking/cycling was broken down into vegan vs meat eater diet (of course it was!)

I cant remember the figures offhand but was something ridiculous like a couple of miles then you are better taking the car. EV cars were off the scale for short commutes/short lifespans.

I used to eat loads cycling 10 miles each day. Only 600ft of climbing though. Hammered the breaks and had to replace the pads every 6 weeks or so. The tyres lasted a couple of years and it was well worth getting the puncture-resistant ones. Food was probably the biggest cycling expense.

[Harley]

Chris Martenson is one podcaster I listen to (audio of his videos).  I enjoyed this one on energy (after the liver stuff).  Not so new for this thread but drilled it into me.  Like the idea his craker provides 10 cals of energy but takes 100 or whatever cals to produce/deliver/etc and that this is historically not normal.

Prosperity: I Give Up!

Episode webpage: http://www.peakprosperity.com

[leonardratso]

get the shed erected;

 

[snaga]

14 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I got told off for no lights at 17ish. Copper didn't care that I was smashed. He was nicking someone else at the time though. I just had to get off and walk until out of site.

Bike lights back then probably had as much battery weight as some modern e-bikes.

Copper actually said this to me once, he said something like, "walk until you get round the corner, but if we see you cycling again tonight, we'll fine you".

I walk round the corner, out of sight, get back on my bike.

round the next corner, another copper stopping cyclists with no lights. I didn't stop.

I was 14 and learnt a valuable life lesson, don't trust the police.

[Plan-b]

14 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

The last high-water-mark was the cause of the Arab Spring, I think.

I passed through central Cairo a while after, glad I wasn't there at the time they certainly know how to kick off the place was a right mess .

[ThoughtCriminal]

35 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

The last high-water-mark was the cause of the Arab Spring, I think.

Indeed.

 

Who knows what delights lie ahead for us?

 

All joking aside, I think this all ends very badly. Be it 5 years or 10, most of the world is going to be a combination of Mogadishu and hunger games.

[belfastchild]

28 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I used to eat loads cycling 10 miles each day. Only 600ft of climbing though. Hammered the breaks and had to replace the pads every 6 weeks or so. The tyres lasted a couple of years and it was well worth getting the puncture-resistant ones. Food was probably the biggest cycling expense.

I was in a team in my mid 20s, the sheer amount of food we used to put away was unbelievable, particularly pasta.
Pot full of pasta, tin of cambells mushroom or chicken soup heated up with a tin of tuna and thrown over and just shovel it in to you.
Constantly eating on run outs etc etc.
Would probably kill me now, never mind being the size of a house!

My folding ebike weight limit is 100kg by the way, gotta keep me plus backpack under that ;-)

Theres an argument for all this climate change stuff linking back to obesity. large SUVs and trucks in the US to accomodate huge (not even fat) people who cant get out of sedans any more. Designs based around SUV platform and form factor.
Throw in the EU effectively banning small cars because of the high CO2 to weight ratio (small cars, smaller people etc), and like goldfish the people seem to grow to fill their environment ;-)
Doubt I'll get funding to do a phd in that!

I'll be planting the last of my spuds tomorrow!

[Plan-b]

39 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

get the shed erected;

 

Have been stocking up on some coal no bunker or fireplace so - ARCH - BTU - TGA 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

41 minutes ago, snaga said:

Copper actually said this to me once, he said something like, "walk until you get round the corner, but if we see you cycling again tonight, we'll fine you".

I walk round the corner, out of sight, get back on my bike.

round the next corner, another copper stopping cyclists with no lights. I didn't stop.

I was 14 and learnt a valuable life lesson, don't trust the police.

Yeah, I just got out of sight, which wasn't far as I didn't have lights. Not out of a building site, which might have been a fair cop.

What copper wants to nick someone for drink cycling or riding without lights?

[Bobthebuilder]

19 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Pot full of pasta, tin of cambells mushroom or chicken soup heated up with a tin of tuna

In the early 1990s I used to live on pasta, Campbells condensed chicken soup and tinned hot dogs. Take that, Gordon fucking Ramsey.

Tobacco continues to do well, nearly 40% up on Bats at the moment.

Roast chicken with my baked beans tonight.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, dnb24 said:

Care to elaborate DB, would love to hear the macro on this.

Food prices shot up after WW1 due to lack of manpower so farmers bought more land and tractors with loans to chase the higher prices.When they fell they were stuck with the loans etc.The dust bowl was just one in a series of lost crops etc.The banks loans going bad made most regional banks go close to being bankrupt so couldnt absorb more losses.Food and energy prices tend to be the front run of a depression hence the risk factor being elevated now.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

That's very interesting. Russell Napier spoke about ROCE in the podcast I posted yesterday. Its part of his re-equitisation thesis and commented it would become one of the metrics, bit like positive cash flow, that investors will be seeking out this cycle.

Its a key signal that companies are able to increase prices faster than the coupons on their debt,if it goes the other way of course,they are slowly going bankrupt,telcos for around 5 years were close to levels where they would have to stop all divis and pay down debts,inflation is critical to them,and passing it on.

[DurhamBorn]

43 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Indeed.

 

Who knows what delights lie ahead for us?

 

All joking aside, I think this all ends very badly. Be it 5 years or 10, most of the world is going to be a combination of Mogadishu and hunger games.

Hunger Games? ,dont worry Jennifer il share my stash with you anytime and fight off the skinnies,

 

[Harley]

There you go @DurhamBorn, a chance to use your skills to earn your favourite crypto:

Covey

"Covey is an analyst owned community, created to find and reward the next top money managers.....Covey Managers earn 0.3%-0.5% on all the investor assets that copy your portfolio".

[Boon]

On a serious note, Etoro actually pay real money to anyone who could gets copy followers.

That is probably the only way to make money there as fees take up quite a chunk of the copiers portfolio.

[HousePriceMania]

5 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Why are you all buying ebikes - surely the cost of having to charge them as electricity prices are also rising isn't very DOSBOD's like and you will be missing out on the important health benefits of actually cycling a standard bike properly

If you get a decent normal bike for 50% of the price of an ebike you can put a couple of panniers on it to bring home the yellow stickered reduced stuff from the supermarket and you will be better off financially and health wise

I was going to wire up a dynamo to the from of the ebike and charge it as I went along, perpetual motion 

 

[leonardratso]

2 hours ago, Plan-b said:

Have been stocking up on some coal no bunker or fireplace so - ARCH - BTU - TGA 

yeah dont touch warrior met coal though, those bastards are very droppy and choppy.

Actually sold out of TGA today with something stupid like 150% of profits, luckily restarted it in another isa at slightly lower NAV so will continue adding to that, Arch is pretty good profit wise, or was, peabody(BTU) can be a bit choppy as well like warrior.

[Bobthebuilder]

30 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Same as it ever was.

Water dissolving and water removing
There is water at the bottom of the ocean
Under the water, carry the water
Remove the water from the bottom of the ocean
Water dissolving and water removing

Letting the days go by, let the water hold me down
Letting the days go by, water flowing underground
Into the blue again, into the silent water
Under the rocks and stones, there is water underground

[Animal Spirits]

US to ease a few economic sanctions against Venezuela

The limited changes will allow Chevron Corp. to negotiate its license with the state-owned oil company, PDVSA, but not to drill or export any petroleum of Venezuelan origin, two senior U.S. government officials told The Associated Press late Monday

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/nicolas-maduro-ap-venezuela-pdvsa-joe-biden-b2081207.html

Large on paper reserves but I recall our resident oilman @Cattle Prod has mentioned some of the limitations that currently exist with Venezuela's crude oil deposits including grade, recovery rates and Chavez firing thousands of the PDVSA workforce.

 

[JimmyTheBruce]

4 hours ago, JMD said:

I wanted to buy some KT&G, but unfortunately don't have access to it via my ii sipp/HL ISA.                          ...it really stings when that happens, in fact had similar predicament today when trying unsuccessfully to buy the Polish silver/copper global mining outfit KGHM. 

Where are you guys getting Japan Tobacco from?  I can't find it on ii.

[Transistor Man]

3 hours ago, belfastchild said:

I was in a team in my mid 20s, the sheer amount of food we used to put away was unbelievable, particularly pasta.
Pot full of pasta, tin of cambells mushroom or chicken soup heated up with a tin of tuna and thrown over and just shovel it in to you.
Constantly eating on run outs etc etc.
Would probably kill me now, never mind being the size of a house!

I was still racing until a couple of years ago in my early 40s. I wanted to have one last go at it. I put in a lot of training for a couple of years. 11800 miles in 2016. 11000 the year after. 

I still commute every day, 18 miles. But I’m 12 kg heavier than I was when I was doing double that. It wasn’t healthy, and did grind me down. I was sick all the time. Flu, tonsillitis, wisdom teeth. All stopped immediately when I put a bit of weight on. 

There’s a happy medium to exercise, and that wasn’t it. 

[Castlevania]

4 minutes ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

Where are you guys getting Japan Tobacco from?  I can't find it on ii.

The ADR (JAPAY) is an odd one as it’s not traded on an exchange but over the counter. HL offer it (along with high dealing fees) but can understand why some brokers wouldn’t.

[Chewing Grass]

This tells me more than I knew before...