Decent drops

[Option5]

29 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

And why would you assume any of them are doing that?

I think most of the NI folk on that forum own houses they're perfectly happy with.

You do talk a lot of shite sometimes.

Sometimes?

[JoeDavola]

4 minutes ago, A_P said:

Too early to say imo. I would be very wary of the old problem, reaction, solution.

Agree 100%.

The most solid prediction I can make is the property market is fucked for several years, as in getting a chain completed will be an absolute motherfucker.

However I do think there is a chance it might limp along with very few falls in ££'s but with very low transaction levels.

[spunko]

According to S&P London and SE house prices are 50% overvalued.

It's interesting to start looking at houses on Rightmove round here, imagining a -50% drop in price. But arguably it's still not enough.

For example this has been reduced already from £1.1m. If it were to sdrop to £550k, I still don't think I'd be happy. I wonder if my hoping for -75% drops is realistic. Probably not.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/125840393#/?channel=RES_BUY

It's on a main road, nowhere near the nice part of the village, nothing special. You could have bought that for £550k in ~2011 easily.

https://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2022/3/housing-market-overvalued-across-the-uk-claims-ratings-agency

[belfastchild]

1 hour ago, A_P said:

Interestingly the block of apartments in Holywood you can see from the main road is now having work done on the commercial portion on the ground floor which I guess was boarded up from new.

I was asked if I wanted to 'invest' in those!

House round the corner from my uncle in glengormley still has sale agreed on it. From April. 'Sold' in 2 days apparently.

Told the story in other thread of friends daughters mortgage getting pulled from 2.3% after the pulled out of a house and went sale agreed on another one. Were warned it would be nearer 7% when they open the books again.

[HousePriceMania]

41 minutes ago, spunko said:

According to S&P London and SE house prices are 50% overvalued.

It's interesting to start looking at houses on Rightmove round here, imagining a -50% drop in price. But arguably it's still not enough.

For example this has been reduced already from £1.1m. If it were to sdrop to £550k, I still don't think I'd be happy. I wonder if my hoping for -75% drops is realistic. Probably not.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/125840393#/?channel=RES_BUY

It's on a main road, nowhere near the nice part of the village, nothing special. You could have bought that for £550k in ~2011 easily.

https://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2022/3/housing-market-overvalued-across-the-uk-claims-ratings-agency

-50% and -20% off real term.  That'll do for most people I think, like NI. in 2008 to 2010

It';s got to the people I want to see several high profile MPs bankrupted and some jailed.

The housing bubble has become the housing mania and will end the same way as the railway mania

Expect bail ins at some point.

[belfastchild]

2 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

and other NI folk, do you remember during the '08-12 NI crash (50%+ falls)

House one side of me sold at the very peak for 245k. House the other side sold 2 years or so later for 87k.

[JoeDavola]

1 minute ago, belfastchild said:

House one side of me sold at the very peak for 245k. House the other side sold 2 years or so later for 87k.

That’s mental - biggest drop I know of in ££’s was 700k down to 315k.

[belfastchild]

Just now, JoeDavola said:

That’s mental - biggest drop I know of in ££’s was 700k down to 315k.

Its not about house prices as I keep saying. Its about ability to get credit and if you have to sell. 87k was a divorce, she was off to Australia to live with daughter, had to sell for whatever the bank would lend to new buyers at the time. First timers as most chains were under water.

[Noallegiance]

13 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Its not about house prices as I keep saying. Its about ability to get credit and if you have to sell. 87k was a divorce, she was off to Australia to live with daughter, had to sell for whatever the bank would lend to new buyers at the time. First timers as most chains were under water.

This is the thing. Prices driven by credit.

If nobody can borrow £500k, nobody can ask for £500k.

[HousePriceMania]

2 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

This is the thing. Prices driven by credit.

If nobody can borrow £500k, nobody can ask for £500k.

they can ask but they wont get

it's not just credit though is it. It's ponzi MEWing from above supporting their own prices via (grand)children and "chains" which quite frankly are a pyramid scam.

The whole housing market is a scam, the prices detached from any sort of reality

I chose my handle well.  It is a mania, one that ends badly for 90%.

[Stuey]

27 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

-

Expect bail ins at some point.

Yes it will be bail ins. For those lucky enough to have cash in the bank, the choice is clear.

Buy a house now that you want. Or your bailed-in cash will be buying a house you don't want. 

[Cosmic]

Oh wait, thats the wrong way...

I laughed when it went back on the market after 4+months of being SSTC at a higher price, but guess what, in 2 weeks its SSTC again!

Will set the highest price on the street, £15k more than one that sold earlier this year on a nicer plot and with an extension.

Clown world.

[Shamone]

5 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

Give us your best.

I like this one - £480k to £380k in just 4 months.

Ouch.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/85419147#/?channel=RES_BUY

Is GARDEN like CASK?

[Axeman123]

18 minutes ago, Stuey said:

cash in the bank, the choice is clear.

Buy something that isn't a house instead? PMs/Equities/USTs

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Agree 100%.

The most solid prediction I can make is the property market is fucked for several years, as in getting a chain completed will be an absolute motherfucker.

However I do think there is a chance it might limp along with very few falls in ££'s but with very low transaction levels.

It's already happening in Liecs joe.Inventory is up 20% since mid august and it looks like it's all down to chains collapsing.

Interesting times.

1 hour ago, spunko said:

According to S&P London and SE house prices are 50% overvalued.

It's interesting to start looking at houses on Rightmove round here, imagining a -50% drop in price. But arguably it's still not enough.

For example this has been reduced already from £1.1m. If it were to sdrop to £550k, I still don't think I'd be happy. I wonder if my hoping for -75% drops is realistic. Probably not.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/125840393#/?channel=RES_BUY

It's on a main road, nowhere near the nice part of the village, nothing special. You could have bought that for £550k in ~2011 easily.

https://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2022/3/housing-market-overvalued-across-the-uk-claims-ratings-agency

S&P took their time.Bit like 08 when Bear STerns went and they cut their debt rating..........cart before the horse etc

[HousePriceMania]

Since my earlier flurry of posts...

 

 

 

 

 

Not finished...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

I want you to remember, these are the BIG DROPS, above 20%, there are hundreds of drops > 10% 

I dont post the <10% ones.

The big drops  used to be a trickle of all the crap.

Now it is a stream of desperation or joy ( depending on your viewpoint ).

[Formerly]

3 hours ago, A_P said:

i thought they would at least get the bulk of commercial unit ready for shoppfitting at the time. They were laying foundations the other day I walked by 😳.

I read that as shoplifting.

[Democorruptcy]

Drops you say? This is going up £15k a day!

It has a photo of Benllech beach, that was in the news with another raw sewage warning this summer! Last sold £528k in 2020 and before that £250k in 2013

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/127617203#/?channel=RES_BUY

[Malthus]

1 hour ago, JoeDavola said:

That’s mental - biggest drop I know of in ££’s was 700k down to 315k.

Sold my house in late 2007 for £170k 

18 months later you could buy in the same street for £80k , today they are asking about £130k 

Wages haven’t risen much since those days and it was only near zero interest rates which caused any increase imo 

 

 

[Wight Flight]

2 hours ago, Shamone said:

Is GARDEN like CASK?

Surprised they didn't say South facing garden.

Which is true. As is the 80ft cliff at the end.

If it gets full sun for more than 30 minutes a day I would be surprised.

[A_P]

13 hours ago, belfastchild said:

I was asked if I wanted to 'invest' in those!

House round the corner from my uncle in glengormley still has sale agreed on it. From April. 'Sold' in 2 days apparently.

Told the story in other thread of friends daughters mortgage getting pulled from 2.3% after the pulled out of a house and went sale agreed on another one. Were warned it would be nearer 7% when they open the books again.

Do you know how much they were going for new? Looks like one sold recently for circa £380k

https://www.propertypal.com/32-front-36-shore-road-holywood/751433

Have you seen the new Lesley appartments in knocknagoney? Doesn't look like they had any trouble selling them

[A_P]

@HousePriceMania can you not spam twitter links? it makes the thread very slow to load and impossible on a phone.

[A_P]

11 hours ago, Malthus said:

Sold my house in late 2007 for £170k 

18 months later you could buy in the same street for £80k , today they are asking about £130k 

Wages haven’t risen much since those days and it was only near zero interest rates which caused any increase imo 

 

 

Are you out in the sticks? I think the big increase over here appears to be immigration especially when you consider how many homes are actually being built.

[belfastchild]

Just now, A_P said:

Do you know how much they were going for new? Looks like one sold recently for circa £380k

https://www.propertypal.com/32-front-36-shore-road-holywood/751433

Have you seen the new Lesley appartments in knocknagoney? Doesn't look like they had any trouble selling them

No idea, this was one of those 'buy a share in a flat' type things.  I assumed they went this route as they couldnt sell them.
Slices 'started from' 25k and 50k.

I think I remember saying anything more than a tenner for flats next to a very busy main road that would be covered in traffic pollution next to a train line on the flight path would be about right.