Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 9)

[wherebee]

1 minute ago, M S E Refugee said:

?

it's all tracking information which ties you and this site to lots of shite.

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/225945851134

 

See - goes to exactly the same thing

[M S E Refugee]

Just now, wherebee said:

it's all tracking information which ties you and this site to lots of shite.

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/225945851134

 

See - goes to exactly the same thing

Cheers!

I could never understand why the ebay links were so long.

[ThoughtCriminal]

2 hours ago, Pip321 said:

HTB is an absolute nightmare and I am not sure everyone gets just how bad this scheme was for the individuals who were suckered in. Basically borrowing 20% (40% London) from the government with payments only kicking in after 5 years. Oh, new builds only because this isn’t about the buyers at all…..

Not only do payments that are likely unaffordable kick in but the ‘owner’ has a new home which is no longer new so can’t be sold at a premium.

This was absolutely and always a Help to Sell scheme….to allow new builds to inflate prices, let lazy ‘I want a new house’ buyers pay over the odds and the builders make more money so the gov got a bit more tax and trick the GDP numbers up a bit.

Haven't see on other threads though…sorry.

The HTB ISA wasn’t a bad idea ie encourage savings and give the savings a boost…..but again the more you help people buy the more you are effectively just help people sell.

The best scheme would be nothing….let prices fall and viola prices are more affordable. Of course, was never going to happen.

Unless your friend bought well….they are probably beyond help. I would be wary of advice because likely they are fucked. Proper fucked. 🤦🏻‍♂️ 

Cheers Pip

Yeah, the more I'm reading the more astonishing it gets. You can't rent it out without the landlord's permission, even though you "own" 75% of the house. You can't carry out any major works without permission, if you sell the landlord gets first refusal and they set the price, and to top it all there's an annual service fee. It's a fucking house, there are no communal areas so what fucking services are you paying for?

I've said it many times, but we too easily forget that we're unironically in the intellectual and financial elite on here, because 99% of the population are absolute fuckwits, pure cretins. 

I asked her why the fuck she bought it and it's the standard "I loved the house, and now I'm on the HOUSING LADDER" 🤦

Edited May 26 by ThoughtCriminal

[wherebee]

2 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Cheers Pip

Yeah, the more I'm reading the more astonishing it gets. You can't rent it out without the landlord's permission, even though you "own" 75% of the house. You can't carry out any major works without permission, if you sell the landlord gets first refusal and they set the price, and to top it all there's an annual service fee. It's a fucking house, there are no communal areas so what fucking services are you paying for?

I asked her why the fuck she bought it and it's the standard "I loved the house, and now I'm on the HOUSING LADDER" 🤦

HTB in Victoria is slightly different, but it's still a scheme to buy votes and keep house prices high

https://www.sro.vic.gov.au/your-ongoing-obligations

I have one friend who did this with his partner, fair play to him he knew it was shit but wanted security of tenure as they are trying for kids (in Australia you can be kicked out with little notice by a landlord)

[onlyme]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

Cheers!

I could never understand why the ebay links were so long.

When I post Ebay links I always truncate back to the item number.

[montecristo]

They seem to be relying on the tax threshold freezes to bring in the tax increases?

 

 

 

[PatronizingGit]

On 24/05/2024 at 18:13, Errol said:

Saudis getting out of US stocks:

 

 

Where is all this stuff going?

Every other article on finance seems to be some bleating spiv journo writing 'exodus of companies from UK stock market to US. Govt must cut red tape and act NOW' type stuff. 

 

I understand that through the 80s to 2000s a lot of american and other companies listed on the UK stock markets due to the anything goes, legality optional dynamic vibrant deregulated environment of the city.

Not aware of any big legal changes either in the UK or the US. Perhaps Brexit I guess, but figure contingencies for that were made almost a decade ago & ready to go at the drop of a hat. 

 

The conspiracy theorist in me says US getting serious about putting themselves first & going a patriotic/protectionist route, & that includes returning US companies to US stock markets. 

 

Obviously the US has just horrible fiscal, consumer debt levels, but they can just erect the middle finger & shut their doors. I still think the US is one of the shiniest turds going.

[PatronizingGit]

3 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/225945851134?

Not a bad price for any Gold bugs out there, I am spent up this month so I thought I would give a fellow Dosbodder the heads up.

You can receive another 1% off through Topcashback.

 

Also card companies give cashback with their 'rewards'  thing (assume its everything on ebay) if you pay ebay with their card

Lloyds had a 2% cashback offer recently, monzo currently 3%.

[supernaut]

33 minutes ago, PatronizingGit said:

Also card companies give cashback with their 'rewards'  thing (assume its everything on ebay) if you pay ebay with their card

Lloyds had a 2% cashback offer recently, monzo currently 3%.

A fair bit of money available (relativately) through cashback sites, refer a friend sign up bonuses, bank switches , gift cards , cashback on spending etc etc.

I have a fair few things on the boil at any given time, once you get cracking becomes second nature to maximise it.Started around my first exposure to bookmaker bonus extraction.

Rakuten have a £15 each refer a friend offer for example, I got my £15 for spending £30 at ebay.

I wonder if anyone would be interested in a new thread at least outlining some of the strategies and offers?

[Harley]

1 hour ago, montecristo said:

They seem to be relying on the tax threshold freezes to bring in the tax increases?

 

 

 

"Income tax".  Totally believable.  As for a new wage tax....a P60 tax....a going to work tax.....a going to work carbon levy......a wage slip tax......

[Sue Lowe]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Cheers Pip

Yeah, the more I'm reading the more astonishing it gets. You can't rent it out without the landlord's permission, even though you "own" 75% of the house. You can't carry out any major works without permission, if you sell the landlord gets first refusal and they set the price, and to top it all there's an annual service fee. It's a fucking house, there are no communal areas so what fucking services are you paying for?

I've said it many times, but we too easily forget that we're unironically in the intellectual and financial elite on here, because 99% of the population are absolute fuckwits, pure cretins. 

I asked her why the fuck she bought it and it's the standard "I loved the house, and now I'm on the HOUSING LADDER" 🤦

I wholehearted agree that HTB was a complete scam to prop up prices. I don't know if it was always a terrible choice for the punter though.

I know someone who's been paying £500 a month for an apartment for the last 5 years vs £1000 a month to rent a room in an HMO. He also went into the deal with his eyes open, expecting a capital loss, but softened by the tax payer taking 40% of the hit. The loss would have to be very large to offset the savings in rent (yes, it may well be!) but what price on having your own place.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, montecristo said:

They seem to be relying on the tax threshold freezes to bring in the tax increases?

 

 

 

IHT frozen allowances high inflation means they take everything over time.If they included pensions in IHT as well that would destroy private sector pensions.The Tories should of upped these allowances before they were booted out,but it seems they dont care about their voters.

[Axeman123]

2 hours ago, montecristo said:

They seem to be relying on the tax threshold freezes to bring in the tax increases?

It will be stealth taxes too, just like in the Blair era.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

It will be stealth taxes too, just like in the Blair era.

Brown had the big one ready to go,but told nobody,removing tax relief from dividends for pensions.He used it to pay for tax credits and pension credit and in that one move destroyed DB pensions in the private sector,destroyed families,caused mass immigration and ensured the collapse of the UK once things ran their course.

Its very likely Labour will have their eyes on some now.I suspect IHT on pensions might be one,though that would be a disaster so they likely wont.The huge worry for ordinary workers is council tax.Councils are out of control due to Labour last time,but very likely they will allow bigger council tax increases.

Luckily for us we should outrun whatever they come up with.EMs will see huge out performance over the rest of the cycle and should cover the Labour term.

Labour will come in to increasing inflation because rates dont matter,its government spending (and policies) causing it.

[Axeman123]

12 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Brown had the big one ready to go

CGT and dividends taxed at the individual's marginal income tax rate has been heavily foreshadowed, and a huge body of NGO/think-tank slop has already been written to justify it as data-driven benign or even beneficial to the economy etc.

17 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

removing tax relief from dividends for pensions.He used it to pay for tax credits and pension credit and in that one move destroyed DB pensions in the private sector,destroyed families,caused mass immigration and ensured the collapse of the UK once things ran their course.

It seems likely to me that the new economic and political fault line (ie replacing labour vs capital) will be young vs old, with Labour as the party of the young. Pensions and property equity are therefore again likely to be targets, as well as being the only real untapped store of wealth. The recent think-tank talk of centrally allocated private pension pots to invest in policy priority areas also suggests this is probably coming. It would then be only a short step from there to seizing the pots outright to buttress the state pension in the name of fairness.

[AlfredTheLittle]

15 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

CGT and dividends taxed at the individual's marginal income tax rate has been heavily foreshadowed, and a huge body of NGO/think-tank slop has already been written to justify it as data-driven benign or even beneficial to the economy etc.

It seems likely to me that the new economic and political fault line (ie replacing labour vs capital) will be young vs old, with Labour as the party of the young. Pensions and property equity are therefore again likely to be targets, as well as being the only real untapped store of wealth. The recent think-tank talk of centrally allocated private pension pots to invest in policy priority areas also suggests this is probably coming. It would then be only a short step from there to seizing the pots outright to buttress the state pension in the name of fairness.

Dividends are already effectively taxed at the same rate as income - company pays 25% on its profits, then recipient pays an additional 9% / 34% / 40% out of the post-corporation tax amount, so the govt is already taking more than half of most company profits paid out as dividends.

[Axeman123]

1 minute ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

Dividends are already effectively taxed at the same rate as income - company pays 25% on its profits, then recipient pays an additional 9% / 34% / 40% out of the post-corporation tax amount, so the govt is already taking more than half of most company profits paid out as dividends.

I know that, and you know that.

Individuals subject to 8.75% vs 20%, 33.75% vs 40%, and 39.35% vs 45% would still equal more tax payable in the name of "fairness" though. Additionally this would remove the "perk" enjoyed by an actally small number of people of arranging their affairs to enable taking their income in a form that is taxed at a lower rate.

If we do see a generational divide defining politics it is worth noting that while people of all ages receive dividends, it is older and more prosperous people doing so by a huge margin. Imagine the Tories having to justify to a warehouse Joe or call centre worker with student loans why they should pay 20% on wages while their landlord "only" pays 8.75% on his dividends.

The more I think about it the more the generational divide political narative enables all the policy that seems innevitable to prop up the stinking debt-riddled corpse of the nation state for another parliament or 2. We talk about the huge wealth transfer fromwest to east, I need to think about the implications of a forced wealth transfer from old to young. 

[Castlevania]

20 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

I know that, and you know that.

Individuals subject to 8.75% vs 20%, 33.75% vs 40%, and 39.35% vs 45% would still equal more tax payable in the name of "fairness" though. Additionally this would remove the "perk" enjoyed by an actally small number of people of arranging their affairs to enable taking their income in a form that is taxed at a lower rate.

If we do see a generational divide defining politics it is worth noting that while people of all ages receive dividends, it is older and more prosperous people doing so by a huge margin. Imagine the Tories having to justify to a warehouse Joe or call centre worker with student loans why they should pay 20% on wages while their landlord "only" pays 8.75% on his dividends.

The more I think about it the more the generational divide political narative enables all the policy that seems innevitable to prop up the stinking debt-riddled corpse of the nation state for another parliament or 2. We talk about the huge wealth transfer fromwest to east, I need to think about the implications of a forced wealth transfer from old to young. 

The issue here is that it makes it even harder for the young to build capital. It’s not helping them at all. 

[Axeman123]

2 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

The issue here is that it makes it even harder for the young to build capital. It’s not helping them at all. 

I totally agree, however the majority of young people are living hand to mouth already so have no means to build capital.

Its the politics of envy and spite etc, just shifted to generational reistribution rather than class based. Meet the new politics, same as the old one.

[goldbug9999]

17 hours ago, JMD said:

Humans taste of pork you say?...   That reminded me of the grisly case of the German cannibal.

Can confirm, having had laser treatment on gums to treat a deep infection, that burning human flesh smells like opening a bag of pork scratchings.

Edited May 26 by goldbug9999

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

CGT and dividends taxed at the individual's marginal income tax rate has been heavily foreshadowed, and a huge body of NGO/think-tank slop has already been written to justify it as data-driven benign or even beneficial to the economy etc.

It seems likely to me that the new economic and political fault line (ie replacing labour vs capital) will be young vs old, with Labour as the party of the young. Pensions and property equity are therefore again likely to be targets, as well as being the only real untapped store of wealth. The recent think-tank talk of centrally allocated private pension pots to invest in policy priority areas also suggests this is probably coming. It would then be only a short step from there to seizing the pots outright to buttress the state pension in the name of fairness.

I think your right on the dividends,its crazy but like you say an easy sell.They might tighten up ISA allowances as well.A lifetime limit the most likely.Again counter productive,but Labour dont care.As things stand they need to cut spending by around £145 billion never mind spend more to stop collapse.Pensions might not be hit,but outside of SIPPs they might force them into all kinds of shit.BTL and holiday homes/lets etc look like sitting ducks .

[AlfredTheLittle]

51 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

I totally agree, however the majority of young people are living hand to mouth already so have no means to build capital.

Its the politics of envy and spite etc, just shifted to generational reistribution rather than class based. Meet the new politics, same as the old one.

It's not generational transfer though, it's a transfer from the public to the government and associated cronies (including many but by no means all public sector)

[Axeman123]

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Pensions might not be hit,but outside of SIPPs they might force them into all kinds of shit.

A candidate for what that shit might be:

Quote

Labour grapples with plans for a British wealth fund – without the wealth

Think tanks have been hinting about tying tax advantages of pensions or ISAs to "investing in British companies". Keep that in mind and reading between the lines this article looks like a roadmap.

Quote

...Once raised, the fund could be used to invest in Labour’s priorities, particularly low-carbon manufacturing in poorer areas of Britain as a new variant of levelling up.

However, the investment banker says: “This is more like an investment fund, but it is not clear why, if these are good investments, the private sector would not be backing them already.”

The Institute for Public Policy Research, a Left-leaning think tank, has suggested a system of joint ventures in which the Government invests with businesses to build new factories that would not have existed without the support.

Effectively, this would mean subsidies to make heat pumps, wind turbines or car batteries in deprived parts of the country in a manner Reeves could compare to the wave of US and EU aid for the same industries...

Quote

...“Yes it would be nice if it makes a return, but the first and foremost objective should be investing in green manufacturing, and increasing our economic activity,” says a source.

However, a lack of focus on financial returns raises the question: why would private sector money managers, who have a fiduciary duty to their own investors, back such a fund?

“What will the Government offer investors?” says the bank executive. “It can only be tax breaks.”...

The article is coy about the tax breaks part, IMO rather than new ones this fund will just become mandatory for the existing SIPP and ISA ones.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/labour-grapples-plans-british-wealth-090000686.html

[JMD]

6 hours ago, montecristo said:

They seem to be relying on the tax threshold freezes to bring in the tax increases?

 

 

 

Id be very suspicious of political grand gesturing such as those ones regarding ('watch my lips'!; ie Bush Senior) - no new taxes.

For example I expect that Wes Streeting's NHS review and subsequent reforms/recommendations will encompass a new scheme for 'top-up payments' so that individuals can access 'extra medical services'.  Although payments would be collected via employee payroll (unless not an employee, but then other 'fudges' will apply!) and ostensibly directed into government coffers - however the new funding will be ultimately used by NHS to buy extra services from private sector 'spare capacity'. It will of course all be presented as win-win, but my point is that there are myriad ways the NHS can be radically transformed over the next 10 years, without the requirement for any additional government taxes. 

Edited May 26 by JMD

[AWW]

They're all just so depressingly shit.

I've finally learned my lesson and won't be voting for any of them.