ToSsers

[TheCountOfNowhere]

7 minutes ago, 201p said:

TOS served it's purpose for me. I was one of the first members there back in er 2004 or was it? Move onto to your next chapter in life!

I love TOS, it's been a great source of information/fun/joviality over the years. 

It's become a hot bed for insanity at the mo.  Desperate non-homeowners wanting a crash...spivs/speculator/a-holes wanting to hold onto unearned untaxed wealth.

Until something really gives might as well hold back.

[InLikeFlynn]

I still read the site occasionally and post a bit too but the main forum is on an endless loop: the same subjects and viewpoints reappear with startling regularity. Bit like here really...

The OT forum there is now dead.

 

[201p]

11 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I love TOS, it's been a great source of information/fun/joviality over the years. 

It's become a hot bed for insanity at the mo.  Desperate non-homeowners wanting a crash...spivs/speculator/a-holes wanting to hold onto unearned untaxed wealth.

Until something really gives might as well hold back.

Same here. But I don't love it any longer. I guess it was like any relationship. It ran it's course. We grew apart. We will never change back to what we were before.

[One percent]

2 hours ago, InLikeFlynn said:

I still read the site occasionally and post a bit too but the main forum is on an endless loop: the same subjects and viewpoints reappear with startling regularity. Bit like here really...

The OT forum there is now dead.

 

Bugger off, we discuss all sorts of stuff   

[XswampyX]

2 hours ago, One percent said:

Bugger off, we discuss all sorts of stuff   

Quite. It's a never ending stream of madness that needs to be discussed (at length) or my head will explode! 

[Frank Hovis]

On 11/05/2018 at 10:28, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I love TOS, it's been a great source of information/fun/joviality over the years. 

It's become a hot bed for insanity at the mo.  Desperate non-homeowners wanting a crash...spivs/speculator/a-holes wanting to hold onto unearned untaxed wealth.

Until something really gives might as well hold back.

 

14 hours ago, InLikeFlynn said:

I still read the site occasionally and post a bit too but the main forum is on an endless loop: the same subjects and viewpoints reappear with startling regularity. Bit like here really...

The OT forum there is now dead.

 

 

It found it great for the ten years that I was on it.  Then it became not great so I left.

It was still great for ten years; not many websites make that anniversary.

Plus its underlying message remains correct; the only failing being that nobody could see quite how far governments were prepared to go to sustain high house prices.

[BurntBread]

I've been reading ToS for well over a decade, and it still has interesting threads. In fact, since we seem to be heading for a recession, I think it's actually going to have its time in the sun, and feel quite dynamic once more.

What's driving me away though, is one or two (or maybe just one) of the posters. The site has had its fair share of trolls over the years, and that honestly doesn't bother me that much. I think that's because a lot of the trolling is saying: "you were all wrong, and if you'd realised that earlier, you'd have been much better off ... but I'm much richer than you anyway". Well, you know what? In my case, they're probably right on both counts, but it doesn't really rile me as I've given up on most things. I can appreciate that that kind of trolling can be pretty annoying though, as it's basically an insult from a stranger, so there is probably a need to make those people feel a bit unwelcome.

What makes the site seem really painful at the moment though, is the so-called troll-hunting. This has got to the point where random people are being hauled over the coals for supposed infractions of group-think, or for logical inconsistencies buried in their posting history. It just seems really toxic, firstly because it shows zero respect for the other person as a human being, and secondly because the whole point of debate is that people's ideas and views shift and evolve with the arguments, so digging up comments set in aspic and using them as weapons just doesn't feel like a good thing to do, unless you are trying to drive someone away - and driving people away is the last thing that forum needs at the moment.

Since I'm complaining vaguely, let me be clear I'm not talking about the poster called "Venger", whom I liked as a good debater*. He did employ similar tactics, which, as I say, I don't like very much, but I always got the impression he was primarily interested in sharpening ... and sharpening still further, a very clear and consistent point of view. I did debate with him a bit: I think we broadly agree, but I took issue with quite how uncompromising he was. I'm sure I didn't chang his mind one iota, but more importantly, when we did disagree somewhat, I didn't feel like I was being treated like shit or being attacked with the intention of driving me away. It's quite the opposite with some other threads I have read (but not contributed to).

Anyway, I learned a lot of interesting things from ToS, and it raised even more interesting questions in my mind, but I'm probably going to leave it alone now, as it's just too unpleasant to watch.

 

* There was a worry that, as he had disappeared for a while, something bad might have happened - but fortunately he's fine.

[sleepwello'nights]

11 hours ago, BurntBread said:

 In fact, since we seem to be heading for a recession, I think it's actually going to have its time in the sun, and feel quite dynamic once more.

.....because the whole point of debate is that people's ideas and views shift and evolve with the arguments....

Anyway, I learned a lot of interesting things from ToS, and it raised even more interesting questions in my mind, but I'm probably going to leave it alone now, as it's just too unpleasant to watch.

 

Like you I learnt a lot of interesting things from TOS. The most important for me was to appreciate that there could be more than one valid interpretation of events, and that in the light of others perspectives you could get a better understanding of the issues involved. I didn't participate for as long as you did, I mostly enjoyed reading threads on the site. In the end the blatant refusal to allow discussion of an important issue for our Western European way of life made me leave. 

[BurntBread]

22 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Like you I learnt a lot of interesting things from TOS. The most important for me was to appreciate that there could be more than one valid interpretation of events, and that in the light of others perspectives you could get a better understanding of the issues involved. I didn't participate for as long as you did, I mostly enjoyed reading threads on the site. In the end the blatant refusal to allow discussion of an important issue for our Western European way of life made me leave. 

I read for a looong time, and joined much more recently, so I don't feel I have much right to complain.

The moderation was very heavy-handed when it came to immigration, but it's such a divisive question I don't think it would have ended well on ToS even if the moderators had been more tolerant. At the very least, it would have needed a single thread (like the Brexit thread), or sub-forum, to contain the conflagration. Even here, which is (I think) a more civil forum of (not uncoincidentally) older posters, it can get a bit fractious.

I'm generally quite happy living and working in places with people from all over the world, but even I can see a lot of the down-sides, in terms of difficulty of policing, failure of integration, and the potential for gaping fractures in society to develop. I'm not even sure immigration is the biggest threat, though: financialisation, the removal of the security of home-ownership, and the creation of a huge, non-productive benefits class are probably even bigger attacks on western civilisation (and I'm not necessarily suggesting they are attacks by anyone in particular: they are probably endogenous processes that we simply do not have the understanding or philosophical tools to control).

Out of all the sound and fury, the "memes" and polemics that have come out of the internet age, I think there is one truly poignant thought which encompasses all the above. It's not really a new thought, but almost uniquely for the internet, it has an element of true poetic pathos, and that is the idea of the "eternal September."

[201p]

Well since Alexa is not free anymore, google trends will have to do.

Blue Line = "Housepricecrash"

Red Line = "Dosbods"

[spunko]

1 hour ago, 201p said:

Well since Alexa is not free anymore, google trends will have to do.

Blue Line = "Housepricecrash"

Red Line = "Dosbods"

You need to finetune the filters a bit!

https://g.co/trends/WbVGN

[201p]

It's all down to interpretation. HPC has gone the full cycle. Dosbods is a seed that is ready to grow into an Oak.

It's at the start of it's journey.

[jm51]

The passage of time has shown that it is better to be lucky than smart. Also, you are a little bit more likely to be lucky if you follow the herd than if you go your own way.

Some people sold to rent in 2002. If the purchasers of those houses are still living there, they have only 9 years left on their repayment mortgage. If there isn't a huge crash soon, then those early STRers really have given their house away.  

Just after the financial crisis hit, there were plenty of investment opinions given on tos. I used to pass time by reading through the posts of such 'experts' to see how many of their tips it took to halve an investment fund.

[spunko]

12 minutes ago, jm51 said:

The passage of time has shown that it is better to be lucky than smart. Also, you are a little bit more likely to be lucky if you follow the herd than if you go your own way.

 

Only when it comes to house prices. That statement cannot be applied to anything else I can think of. Shows how warped it is.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

2 hours ago, jm51 said:

The passage of time has shown that it is better to be lucky than smart. Also, you are a little bit more likely to be lucky if you follow the herd than if you go your own way.

Some people sold to rent in 2002. If the purchasers of those houses are still living there, they have only 9 years left on their repayment mortgage. If there isn't a huge crash soon, then those early STRers really have given their house away.  

Just after the financial crisis hit, there were plenty of investment opinions given on tos. I used to pass time by reading through the posts of such 'experts' to see how many of their tips it took to halve an investment fund.

It's a long life....magic pyramid scam cash is rarely collected.

The ToSsers only need to be right once, everyone else, every day till they downsize or STR.

As soon as IRs rise ( no laughing at the back ) the prices are f**ked.

I did a chart that shows with I/O as IRs tend to 0, prices tend to infinity, the maximum sustainable price rises exponentially, the people selling can collect a lot of money in a short period of time

Now, when interest rate go up just a little bit.....

The problems not the house prices now, it's what happens when the pyramid scam collapses.

Maybe people on 6 figure salaries are really happy living in the bottom 10% of housing stock 

[jm51]

The tossers might only need to be right once but it is time dependent.

Using a single 2002 house sale as an example, the vendors went to rented accommodation and another couple went from renting to owning. Who wins long term?

16 years on, can there there really be a crash so bad that vendors are glad that they STR in 2002?

The 2002 buyers have only got 9 years left before they're immune to any interest rate rises.

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

14 minutes ago, jm51 said:

The tossers might only need to be right once but it is time dependent.

Using a single 2002 house sale as an example, the vendors went to rented accommodation and another couple went from renting to owning. Who wins long term?

16 years on, can there there really be a crash so bad that vendors are glad that they STR in 2002?

The 2002 buyers have only got 9 years left before they're immune to any interest rate rises.

 

Depends what you did with your cash, if you put it in property, sold 2007, bought gold, sold in 2010, bought shares, sold in 2014, bought bitcoin, you've now be the richest man in the world by a factor of 10.

If you stick your money in savings, I dare say you're about even, there were 5%+ interest accounts about for the years when prices were falling static. Anyone with half a brain could double there money on the stock market.

Housing in comparison has been a poor investment.

If you bought in 2007, you've probably lost in reality

If you bought in 2015 you've probably lost

When the whole house of cards come toppling down, it probably wont matter, we'll all be ****ed.

Using basic shelter to store wealth, make profit is criminal. 

Running the housing market as a pyramid scam to profit a tiny majority should be treasonable.

You migth think you're immune to interest rate rises but you're not immune to a full blown currency collapse, social unrest, actual bank collapse, war, famine, property taxes and confiscation of property.  What good is a property when all your money is tied up in it and no one wants to buy it or someone taxes it off you directly or by stealth ?

That's where we are headed, like it or not.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

Im going into semi-retirement this summer, a fat old pension and a nice place to live.

How well has being a homo treated you ?

 

 

[Long time lurking]

On 14/05/2018 at 10:17, spunko2010 said:

You need to finetune the filters a bit!

https://g.co/trends/WbVGN

Those maps are wracist 

[jm51]

Depends what you did with your cash

Pay rent for 16 years or more?

[spunko]

Peak kite flying surely. This is Davina Mccalls house btw. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-73311488.html

[One percent]

33 minutes ago, spunko2010 said:

Peak kite flying surely. This is Davina Mccalls house btw. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-73311488.html

Doubled in price since 2009. 

It boasts about private access to the railway station.  If you had that kind of money, would you really be traveling with the great unwashed on public transport?

[spunko]

34 minutes ago, One percent said:

Doubled in price since 2009. 

It boasts about private access to the railway station.  If you had that kind of money, would you really be traveling with the great unwashed on public transport?

First class only! Takes over an hour to get to central London from there still.

 

I can't see it selling for anywhere near that personally. Even if it got 4m id be surprised. 

Also a bit gauche to have a huge picture of yourself above the fireplace surely? (photo 10) 

[One percent]

9 minutes ago, spunko2010 said:

First class only! Takes over an hour to get to central London from there still.

 

I can't see it selling for anywhere near that personally. Even if it got 4m id be surprised. 

Also a bit gauche to have a huge picture of yourself above the fireplace surely? (photo 10) 

I didn’t notice it but did notice the Obama print. 

Sky screamer status confirmed then 

[Melchett]

Yep, I remember telling people back in 2002 that it was a bubble and it would crash soon. Disbelieving looks, even though it was only 7 years after 1997.

But instead of STRing I paid down my mortgage fast and sat tight. Been mortgage free for well over a decade. The STRers would have been far better off doing that. Not that they were to know, of course, back in 2002. And I felt aggrieved for a while that I was missing 0% IRs. But I got over it after a couple of years.

Make life choices that make you happiest and ne regrette rien. Its pointless.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

On 18/05/2018 at 12:20, jm51 said:

Depends what you did with your cash

Pay rent for 16 years or more?

Pay rent, pay interest, not much difference.  it's what you use the capital that matters.