Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[sancho panza]

On 09/01/2021 at 21:07, harp said:

Is it me? But every time I see this graph over the last couple of months I just think that's a lovely cup and handle. When the handle was just about forming I was thinking how I could play this.

The covid chart is bollocks without context.All cause mortality is within normal parameters.Covid deaths up means heart disease/cancer/flu deaths down for simplicty's sake,if all cause is flattish.Mar/April saw Covid excess deaths.

 

On 10/01/2021 at 11:30, AWW said:

That's what I'm wondering V.

I currently have some money sitting in a Ltd Co that I'm not going to be using anymore. I'd also like to buy a house this summer.

Question is, do I pile half the cash into my SIPP using the 3 year rule, making a huge tax saving but reducing the amount left over for a house deposit, or do I take the hit and have cash available for deposit and refurb?

The SIPP is by far the best option in the long term, but the kids are young right now and our current flat doesn't really suit family life.

I've never had a problem delaying gratification, but I feel my hand being forced by circumstances. I really hate paying tax when I see what it gets spent on.

Sorry, not hugely relevant to the thread, just thinking aloud...

Have you looked at renting a 4/5 bed detached.....2%-2.5% gross yield round my way.

[Noallegiance]

11 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Think it's only fair to point out Bitcoin hit a low of £22,000 today from it's high of just over £30,000 less than 72 hours ago and not sure it's going to bottom there

Whatever ones position regarding crypto, the propaganda has begun:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55615514

[Harley]

9 hours ago, wherebee said:

Just a FYI - 

 

I did some digging around today re my interactive broker account.  The Australian business is seperate and keeps client money in a seperate account with australian institutions in line with Australian regulatory requirements.  It's not clear whether equities and other assets are kept all in the same buckets.  I've relatively happy as the Oz gvt guarantee is still 250k.

The reason I raise this is that some of the european IB clients in forums are claiming - no idea if true - that they are only covered for 50k max if IB goes down, and others claiming that IB uses a hungarian operation for some accounts (?).

All sounds far fetched to me, esp the hungarian thing, but you might want to specifically ask your broker i) where are client account monies (cash and other assets) held (country and jurisdiction) and what is the investor guarantee cover applied - UK or other?

If there is a BK, I strongly suspect in some markets some banks and others will go to the wall.

I think it's just a fear of the loss of passporting rules post brexit.  They presumably want to deal with EU clients using their (FCA regulated) IB UK entity.  It seems they have set up Hungarian and Luxembourgian entities to which EU customers can transfer (and then be ruled by the regulators in those two countries).  The £50k limit is the UK limit for brokerage accounts, although it seems some business gets put through IB US where the cover is higher.  Sounds quite proactive as I thought passporting, bar temporary arrangements, has yet to be negotiated so possibly their worst case.  This is/will presumably also happen in reverse for those EU brokers with UK clients (or they could just kick them out!).  Degiro?

[sancho panza]

18 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I'll be cognisant of a liquidity/BK smash, but I don't think it'll be worse than March for this sector, how could it?! Oil was zero! The temptation is there to slice and rebuy at a discount, but I think I'll just hold. Dyodd of course.

I always love looking back at Billiton charts back in 99/00/01.Went up msot of teh way through a huge bear.I suspect-and our moeny's positioned accordingly,that oil/gas won't touch those march lows again.

We'll only be offloading if there's a significant 360 degree trade on ie sell now,buy back more later.I wouldn't want us going through the 20's without a decent core holding of big oil&gas.

Loads of flags to look for,but if I don't see them,we'll likely take our chances holding through.

One last point-coal.With the COal ETF closing,that's my buy signal.Currently weighing Anglo pacific which has a decent coking coal stream.

9 hours ago, Barnsey said:

I wonder if we're much closer than many expect? If markets are forward looking, and since things are as frothy as they are, with treasury yields rising starting to show up in $ strength, you can see where I'm going with this. There's a creeping in of forward guidance on the tightening front, suggestion of tapering bond purchases by Fed later this year, and the following suggesting prudence from Sunak (seems he's also an avid reader of this thread ):

The vaccine and suggested withdrawal of support from governments and central banks may actually be the virus for this bubble. How soon do markets want to recognise this?

at some point,they'll have to wirht draw furlough at which point all hell could break loose .

Furlough means fiscal deficits->fiscal deficits means weaker currency->weaker currency means higher inflation expectations-> less room for fiscal deficits/QE/zirp

@DurhamBorn talking 3% by summer,wouldn't surprise me and that would take a lot of room for manouvre off the table for CBs

5 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

@sancho panza what website is this from?

Rightmove market trends

RM seem to struggle with the updates during times of market stress .At the mo we';re looking at Aug data.Most registrations are filed in months 1&2 post completion.A few straggle in in motnh 3 and a tiny amount month 4.....so why haven't we got Sept data.

Is suspect-no prixes here- that Oct/Nov/Dec will be beyond awful volume wise but could surprise price wise as the equity swapping of semis/detached carries on regardless of conditions.

[leonardratso]

41 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Whatever ones position regarding crypto, the propaganda has begun:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55615514

The FCA warns cryptoasset investors they will not have access to the Financial Services Compensation Scheme or the Financial Ombudsman Service as they would if they invested in standard products, such as shares.

I didnt know that, it sort of implies that i can get compensation for all those dogs i bought that lost money.

 

Wassat? i cant? fucking lying bbc bastards

 

[Barnsey]

 

[geordie_lurch]

Wow missed this story from over the weekend regarding HSBC stopping payments to and from Bitcoin exchanges and with Tesla taking a decent dive currently maybe it's going to be a 'busy' week

Quote

UK investors have been faced with a dilemma after HSBC announced it would no longer support the transfer of funds from crypto exchanges

The Sunday Times reported on Saturday that HSBC had blocked all transactions involving crypto exchanges. Crypto customers will now be unable to transfer their profits to their bank account.

It appears that the multinational bank is taking a heavy-handed approach in dealing with money laundering. HSBC is now the latest bank to impose restrictions on crypto customers. The bank was recently involved in global money-laundering activities, so it has faced some criticism for the move.

https://coinjournal.net/news/hsbc-blocks-incoming-funds-from-cryptocurrency-exchanges/

[Boon]

If all the platforms can buddy up and ban things they don't like, ie Trump, what hope for Bitcoin? 

All the banks need to do is join together and not take payments, and the authorities could ban trading 'for the safety of consumers'. Then what? People would get unhappy, then to appease them, 'government approved' cryptos come in....

 

[Majorpain]

6 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Wow missed this story from over the weekend regarding HSBC stopping payments to and from Bitcoin exchanges and with Tesla taking a decent dive currently maybe it's going to be a 'busy' week

https://coinjournal.net/news/hsbc-blocks-incoming-funds-from-cryptocurrency-exchanges/

That has potential to be a head shot if fear sets in, its all well and good having 100,000 bitcoins, but if you cant exchange them for £'s and $'s then all you have is a load of electronic ones and zeros.

There was always going to be push back eventually, the banks cant have everyone "off the grid" finance wise!

[Loki]

11 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Wow missed this story from over the weekend regarding HSBC stopping payments to and from Bitcoin exchanges and with Tesla taking a decent dive currently maybe it's going to be a 'busy' week

https://coinjournal.net/news/hsbc-blocks-incoming-funds-from-cryptocurrency-exchanges/

Aren't HSBC pretty involved with China? Could be orders from the higher ups

[Transistor Man]

New David Hunter interview. 

“I think this was one of my better interviews. Covered a lot of good ground. Worth a listen.”

https://anchor.fm/digitaldollar/episodes/31-David-Hunter--Chief-Macro-Strategist-at-Contrarian-Macro-Advisors-eoqn89

[JMD]

1 hour ago, dnb24 said:

Regarding health investments - For anyone interested in the health sector - VNV Global AB have a significant holding in Babylon Health. 
Babylon are shaking up the health sector- in both the USA and UK. I believe they are looking at an IPO next year, but when they do- they have the potential to really fly. 
It’s kind of a Decomplex play- as with Babylon no need to register with Gp, you just ring up, they send for investigations, review you with results or send on for management. It significantly simplifies the pathway and will disturb every geographic health area of UK- the only issue would be whether it will be allowed to- GPs and CCGs have shown some resistance but I believe Babylon have significant governmental support.

I didn't realise that there was significant government support. I was aware that Babylon had been under sustained attack from the medical establishment from the start, so i guess it has been doing lots right to have survived in the game for so long.  

Funny how Babylon's remote/phone based appointment service wasn't considered good enough, apparently because unless the patient was sitting with the GP the criticism levelled was that 'crucial symptoms would be missed'. Until that is the corona virus struck and which seriously limited all physical contact with our GP's. And now it is apparently perfectly acceptable to do things remotely with some GP's even saying that this new way of working has its benefits!... It seems every round of painfully slow change requires a new round of 'Bevan bribery' where GP's mouths are repeatedly stuffed with gold (Bevan's phrase, not mine).     

[Democorruptcy]

10 hours ago, wherebee said:

Just a FYI - 

 

I did some digging around today re my interactive broker account.  The Australian business is seperate and keeps client money in a seperate account with australian institutions in line with Australian regulatory requirements.  It's not clear whether equities and other assets are kept all in the same buckets.  I've relatively happy as the Oz gvt guarantee is still 250k.

The reason I raise this is that some of the european IB clients in forums are claiming - no idea if true - that they are only covered for 50k max if IB goes down, and others claiming that IB uses a hungarian operation for some accounts (?).

All sounds far fetched to me, esp the hungarian thing, but you might want to specifically ask your broker i) where are client account monies (cash and other assets) held (country and jurisdiction) and what is the investor guarantee cover applied - UK or other?

If there is a BK, I strongly suspect in some markets some banks and others will go to the wall.

Even just betting on Oz sport at Betfair you have to keep the funds in a separate wallet.

HL used to say only £50k FSCS compo but it changed to £85k.

[Noallegiance]

27 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

 ...its all well and good having 100,000 bitcoins, but if you cant exchange them for £'s and $'s then all you have is a load of electronic ones and zeros.

I feel like this is the bit hodlers haven't cottoned onto yet.

[Democorruptcy]

26 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

That has potential to be a head shot if fear sets in, its all well and good having 100,000 bitcoins, but if you cant exchange them for £'s and $'s then all you have is a load of electronic ones and zeros.

There was always going to be push back eventually, the banks cant have everyone "off the grid" finance wise!

If banks won't let people transfer cash to their account aren't they pushing them off grid?

What about Bitcoin doing transfers to say Bullion Vault and Goldmoney accounts to "clean" it?

 

[Tingles]

38 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

That has potential to be a head shot if fear sets in, its all well and good having 100,000 bitcoins, but if you cant exchange them for £'s and $'s then all you have is a load of electronic ones and zeros.

There was always going to be push back eventually, the banks cant have everyone "off the grid" finance wise!

 

10 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I feel like this is the bit hodlers haven't cottoned onto yet.

LMFAO.  All markets are manipulated, this instance is no different.

[Green Devil]

1 hour ago, geordie_lurch said:

Wow missed this story from over the weekend regarding HSBC stopping payments to and from Bitcoin exchanges and with Tesla taking a decent dive currently maybe it's going to be a 'busy' week

https://coinjournal.net/news/hsbc-blocks-incoming-funds-from-cryptocurrency-exchanges/

If I recall the banks did something similar in 2017. 

They can see all the outflows from their accounts as all exchange funds go via single account. With just a reference on it. 

It's effectively a bank run. The banks are scared. You should be happy to keep your fiat on there platform and pay negative interest rates for the privilege. 

[Majorpain]

45 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

If banks won't let people transfer cash to their account aren't they pushing them off grid?

What about Bitcoin doing transfers to say Bullion Vault and Goldmoney accounts to "clean" it?

 

IMO trigger would be if governments start accepting bitcoin payments for taxes, i am seeing zero interest from anyone on that.  Well, except people who own bitcoin obs!  Crypto is coming, but it isn't bitcoin.

Bullion vault/Goldmoney are not banks and do not hold accounts at the Bank of England, Bullionvault use Lloyds.

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

When I had my bitcoin, I did some DD on exit strategy, thinking this could happen. I got as far as some gold dealers in Switzerland who accept bitcoin as payment for gold, so that was the general idea. Drive home with a heavy boot! But then it occurred to me that they'd probably have to clear the transaction using banking systems anyway. As I'm only interested in playing the speculation element of bitcoin, and I'm not much of a believer in its intrinsic value etc, a spreadbet on IG will cover future itches for me. Max leverage is 2, so lower chance of blowing up if you wait till after a drawdown. I don't think the current correction is done, I'd be looking for 35-40% before I'm a buyer again.

I think the FCA have banned spreadsbetting/CFD’s on crypto

[Talking Monkey]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

When I had my bitcoin, I did some DD on exit strategy, thinking this could happen. I got as far as some gold dealers in Switzerland who accept bitcoin as payment for gold, so that was the general idea. Drive home with a heavy boot! But then it occurred to me that they'd probably have to clear the transaction using banking systems anyway. As I'm only interested in playing the speculation element of bitcoin, and I'm not much of a believer in its intrinsic value etc, a spreadbet on IG will cover future itches for me. Max leverage is 2, so lower chance of blowing up if you wait till after a drawdown. I don't think the current correction is done, I'd be looking for 35-40% before I'm a buyer again.

Hasn't spread bet on crypto for retail been stopped

[Hancock]

38 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

IMO trigger would be if governments start accepting bitcoin payments for taxes, i am seeing zero interest from anyone on that.  Well, except people who own bitcoin obs!  Crypto is coming, but it isn't bitcoin.

Bullion vault/Goldmoney are not banks and do not hold accounts at the Bank of England, Bullionvault use Lloyds.

Global govts can imprison us and the plebs cheer it on.

Should Bitcoin or someone other electronic currency from outside they system look like replacing global currencies, i've a feeling the globalists and the 0.0001%ers would do something about it ... in our lifetimes anyway.

 

[leonardratso]

was it? I know you cant buy BTCE BTC tracker any more, although i think you can bet on it on t212, i still have some and its in close only mode, meaning i can sell it but cant buy any more of it.

ARGo is still available.

[jamtomorrow]

2 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Wow missed this story from over the weekend regarding HSBC stopping payments to and from Bitcoin exchanges and with Tesla taking a decent dive currently maybe it's going to be a 'busy' week

https://coinjournal.net/news/hsbc-blocks-incoming-funds-from-cryptocurrency-exchanges/

This story is strange.

On the one hand, it makes sense: HSBC have enough on their hands with the mounting problems @sancho panza detailed a few months back; also the lingering bad smell around laundering allegations; also the generally crypto-phobic setup in the UK (e.g. FCA gating crypto-investments from Jan 1). Seen from that perspective crypto probably looks like another can of worms, so probably best slam the lid back on, and quick.

On the other hand, the article is very strangely worded:

"Some banks will not accept transfers from bitcoin exchanges. HSBC, one of the biggest banks in the country, does not process cryptocurrency payments or allow customers to bank money from digital wallets."

Notice "does not" (i.e. this is not a new thing HSBC are bringing in). Also, crypto exchanges are not mentioned - only "cryptocurrency payments" and "digital wallets". Finally, saw a couple of people on Twitter saying they've withdrawn fiat to HSBC from Coinbase today, with no hitches.

So who knows. Maybe FUD (good clickbait after a run-up AKA "doing a Schiff")? Or somebody's kite-flying?

[AWW]

3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Have you looked at renting a 4/5 bed detached.....2%-2.5% gross yield round my way.

I would if I could find one that's been decorated in the last 30 years.

[leonardratso]

2 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

This story is strange.

On the one hand, it makes sense: HSBC have enough on their hands with the mounting problems @sancho panza detailed a few months back; also the lingering bad smell around laundering allegations; also the generally crypto-phobic setup in the UK (e.g. FCA gating crypto-investments from Jan 1). Seen from that perspective crypto probably looks like another can of worms, so probably best slam the lid back on, and quick.

On the other hand, the article is very strangely worded:

"Some banks will not accept transfers from bitcoin exchanges. HSBC, one of the biggest banks in the country, does not process cryptocurrency payments or allow customers to bank money from digital wallets."

Notice "does not" (i.e. this is not a new thing HSBC are bringing in). Also, crypto exchanges are not mentioned - only "cryptocurrency payments" and "digital wallets". Finally, saw a couple of people on Twitter saying they've withdrawn fiat to HSBC from Coinbase today, with no hitches.

So who knows. Maybe FUD (good clickbait after a run-up AKA "doing a Schiff")? Or somebody's kite-flying?

thats true, and i remember reading it and thinking im sure they did this last year, is it just a recycled article from ages ago? anyways.