Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Democorruptcy]

5 hours ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

Im currently planning on buying Shell BP Conoco and prob the Wisdom Tree Crude ETF (CRUD) also Fever Tree (quinine) Pioneer Natural Resources EOG Resources  and Astra Zeneca.

If you already like Wisdom Tree re silver they have PHAG.

 

[Democorruptcy]

6 hours ago, Barnsey said:

JCB announcing the 950 job cuts the other day was a wake up call for me, if larger strong firms are taking such action even with the furlough scheme extended to October it says quite a bit about the lasting effects on the real economy. 

We’re essentially in the calm eye of the storm, we’ve been through the shock of entering, and soon comes the shock of exiting and assessing the damage. People have had at least 80% of their income guaranteed, and a 3 month payment holiday granted with ease for any credit they might have. At the moment the lack of bonuses and overtime has been offset by the inability to go on holidays or eat out. Even though I’m still on full pay, all overtime has disappeared, so loss of 20% of income. I’m sure I’m not the only one in this situation, so there goes the “extras” and delays our ability to build up our house deposit, at a time when mortgage lenders have really tightened up and need at least 25% deposits.

You're absolutely right @sancho panza about waiting on the housing front, there’s just no real pain out there yet, and now things are opening up folk think this was as bad as it gets. Over the coming months, more and more businesses will have to make permanent job reductions, and those lingering demand destruction effects will be what drags the market down. Haldane suggesting this morning that we’re looking at an unemployment % like the early 80s, worse than the 90s and GFC. And because of this, hinting at negative rates.

If you haven't seen it the RICS market survey for April has some beautiful charts in it 

My concern is lack of supply holding prices up where I might be interested. 

 

[Loki]

5 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

If you haven't seen it the RICS market survey for April has some beautiful charts in it 

My concern is lack of supply holding prices up where I might be interested. 

 

Nice find!

Quote

With respect to how long it will take for the market to recover after Covid-19 passes*, contributors on average envisaged sales to rebound to their previous levels in around nine months (mean) while median expectations stood at six months. Interestingly, the feedback suggests that a recovery in prices could take a little longer, with both the mean and medium expectations pointing to a recovery in eleven months. In addition, 35% of the survey participants believe that when the market reopens, prices could be left up to 4% lower, while more than 40% take the view that prices could in fact fall by more than 4%.

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, kibuc said:

My problem with those companies is that they are either 

1. Shit

2. Too big

3. Not really silver miners

4. All of the above

I'm looking at Avino and I can see that they get more then half of their revenues from copper (more like 70% in Q1 2020). Great Panther and Coeur are a pinnacle of shit management, plus Coeur has a strong zinc & lead component. Endeavour literally run out of ore in their primary mine last year etc etc. First Majestic, PAAS and Fortuna are the only ones I'd feel comfortable holiding, and Fortuna is the only one from this list I actually hold at the moment.

But the market doesn't seem to care, and when silver popped up 5% on Friday, Avino rocketed up 30%. I can scream at the sky all I want, but maybe it's better to join the dumb marker than be clever and broke.

Edit: Apologies @DurhamBorn if it came across as a criticism of your list. Not my intention. I understand that you identified those companies as having the highest beta to silver, I just struggle to find a reason why the market would assign such a high leverage to silver to them as opposed to some other miners much more focused on silver.

I agree,all have problems,its just based on past moves compared to silver iv tracked them all for years and thats the beta up until now.I just assume there is a reason the market goes for them,probably because it feels they are battered down for all the bad reasons.I actually think HOC is very undervalued and will be adding that as well.Silver is difficult to target  through the miners and is a terrible sector,until we are in a bull.

[M S E Refugee]

http://www.goldchartsrus.com/chartstemp/UKHousePrices01.php

Not sure if this site has been linked before.

[Bus Stop Boxer]

59 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

http://www.goldchartsrus.com/chartstemp/UKHousePrices01.php

Not sure if this site has been linked before.

Bring me the head of Gordon Brown.

[MrXxxx]

Whilst we have a PM theme going at the moment I have a few questions, as I know several of you I.e @Errol are quite knowledgeable.

1. Looking at the OCF of most physical/allocated gold ETC they range 0.19-0.39% but BV with it minimum charge for storage only hits this at £20k +, and then you have a buy/sell of 0.5% and spread...is it really worth having bullion in storage given a) the higher OCF, and b) although theoretically you could collect, realistically in a SHTF scenario it would be unlikely?

2. ETF miners big and small (GDGB & GJGB) - given the risk with juniors, does it make more sense to buy the GDGB for a more `secure` exposure to the market, and pick/lucky dip on a few individual juniors?...I am assuming that the GJGB is likely to have a greater number of `lemons` and so not perform as reliabily/ well as GDGB.

3. Anyone have any thoughts on streamers they would like to share?

4. Finally, can't seem to find silver equivalent ETFs of the above (allocated physical, miners)..am I missing something?

Note, nothing you say will be taken as financial advice, this is simply for educational purposes only.

Thanks.

[nirvana]

@Yellow_Reduced_Sticker I need to raise you that skinny Japanese bird with a couple of 'mask suppliers' I've recently come into contact with 

 

[nirvana]

All you folks keeping your silver and gold stash in a bank or other 'safe place' aren't you worried the government might decide to 'confiscate' it???

Think of all the German gold that the Yankees nicked at the end of the war......and the Germans just got it back recently I think

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

Bring me the head of Gordon Brown.

the stuff he sold wasn't too bad compared to the drop from 2500 tonnes in 1960 to 690 tonnes in 1971......bandits!!! where'd it go? 

source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserves_of_the_United_Kingdom

[Thorn]

Sweet Baby Jesus thinner bases was the answer.

No Soggy Bottoms And the finest pizzas this side of Italy itself.

and finally the long awaited action on our pm miners. Game on.

best place on the Internet by A Mile.

Grazie, DB😎

[Option5]

8 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

the stuff he sold wasn't too bad compared to the drop from 2500 tonnes in 1960 to 690 tonnes in 1971......bandits!!! where'd it go? 

Supporting the pound from 1964 to 1967 when we eventually devalued.

[Bricormortis]

1 hour ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

All you folks keeping your silver and gold stash in a bank or other 'safe place' aren't you worried the government might decide to 'confiscate' it???

Think of all the German gold that the Yankees nicked at the end of the war......and the Germans just got it back recently I think

They have other means of taking peoples wealth.

[Hardhat]

2 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

2. ETF miners big and small (GDGB & GJGB) - given the risk with juniors, does it make more sense to buy the GDGB for a more `secure` exposure to the market, and pick/lucky dip on a few individual juniors?...I am assuming that the GJGB is likely to have a greater number of `lemons` and so not perform as reliabily/ well as GDGB.

It's at your own risk, but I've held both for years and haven't noticed massively more volatility in GJGB than GDGB. If you compare the five year charts you'll see they roughly move in the same way. The volatility comes from the gold price rather than the risk of individual companies really.

[Barnsey]

5 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

If you haven't seen it the RICS market survey for April has some beautiful charts in it 

My concern is lack of supply holding prices up where I might be interested. 

 

Thanks for the link @Democorruptcy! Let’s see what the May survey looks like 

5 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

[wherebee]

On 16/05/2020 at 20:45, Knickerless Turgid said:

She's about 14! (And far too skinny).

jesus.  no she is not.  and no she is not.

 

your eyes have just been lard smeared by too long looking at the landscape in the UK.

[MrXxxx]

9 hours ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

@Yellow_Reduced_Sticker I need to raise you that skinny Japanese bird with a couple of 'mask suppliers' I've recently come into contact with 

 

Oh!, I'm feeling a bit `chesty`, it must be the Coronavirus.

[kibuc]

There's a bidding war going on for Guyana Goldfields, the latest offer from SilverCorp amounts to CAD 1.30 per share 

Guyana was trading at CAD 0.40 before the initial offer came in last month, and closed at CAD 0.94 on Friday.

[Loki]

Put a cheeky fill or kill in on Hochschild

Up 13% since the open (pre market)

[Dogtania]

20 hours ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

Please any recommends on Potash and Silver ETFs.

Dont want to punt on individual companies in PMs. One watch of the gold miner shows on Discovery shows what a crap shoot it can be.

I see Pan American silver have risen nicely since the fella on Kitco blew smoke up them same with Agnico Eagle.

Already hold a pile of sovs so gold is covered. Very nicely.

Nutrien seem the obvious potash stock to hold but would like to spread out a bit.

 

Any tips thoughts appreciated.

Im currently planning on buying Shell BP Conoco and prob the Wisdom Tree Crude ETF (CRUD) also Fever Tree (quinine) Pioneer Natural Resources EOG Resources  and Astra Zeneca.

 

So some sort of catch all ETF recommendations in silver / potash and perhaps cobalt / lithium would be much appreciated.

I would just buy the Vanguard Energy ETF but its not ISA friendly in the UK. Same goes for the Global X Silver ETF.

Cheers.

curious about fever tree.  Haven't looked into them but I guess some consumer facing companies will fare OK throughout this...or maybe people will just move back to Schweppes if things get tough.   No other takes on quinine?  It's a bark wonder if it's possible to load up on the raw stuff for tea or taking as shots.  G&t more civilised though 

[kibuc]

26 minutes ago, Loki said:

Put a cheeky fill or kill in on Hochschild

Up 13% since the open (pre market)

Meanwhile, Canadian markets are closed for Victoria Day so not much joy here.

[nirvana]

12 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Saudi are notoriously stupid money - see Softbank, dotcom etc.

Agree.....Softbank just announced massive losses

SoftBank Vision Fund records $18 billion operating loss, portfolio slides underwater

Jay Powell gave an interview yesterday, here's the transcript

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/full-transcript-fed-chair-jerome-powell-60-minutes-interview-economic-recovery-from-coronavirus-pandemic/

Can somebody give a summary? these money printers annoy me now 

In other news, ALL markets in take off mood due to vast supplies of newly printed FIAT 

[leonardratso]

yar, i see wti has caught a bid also, going greta guns to the fabled $40.

Mind you i have to check a few times, am i looking at the BTC chart or the WTI chart? their volatility and steepness are like a bradford town center topography map. (hilly and full of shit).

[Craig]

1 minute ago, leonardratso said:

yar, i see wti has caught a bid also, going greta guns to the fabled $40

Is that a Freudian slip? 

[leonardratso]

1 minute ago, Craig said:

Is that a Freudian slip? 

is my slip showing?