Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Popuplights]

50 minutes ago, Errol said:

I may be naive, but they only way you own your Gold is to have it in your hand, your own house, or in a hole in your own garden. Nothing else. 

Declaration. I haven't got any...

[Barnsey]

Forward looking or priced for a perfect world?

 

[Noallegiance]

1 minute ago, Barnsey said:

Forward looking or priced for a perfect world?

 

Corporate profit expectations correlating with all time high money pumping? Again? Shocker.

[jamtomorrow]

15 hours ago, Loki said:

@janch It's the best thing I've seen posted on ZH for a long time 

Agreed, good article.

Closing remarks really interesting, and make a bullish case for incumbent oilies as new projects get harder to justify in an increasingly unstable/unpredictable market.

I wonder whether or how long big oil will be willing and able to smooth the peaks and troughs on divis if this is how it plays out. Mucking about with divis might become the new normal.

"Petroleum is now an unstable system and for all the reasons outlined above it cannot be restored to stability: just as time is a one-way arrow, so is the loss of stability.

What can we expect? Unstable systems are prone to wild swings to extremes and unpredictable collapses. So we may see collapses in the price of oil as we saw in March, and then rapid ascents in price above $100/barrel, which then crash once demand declines.

This unpredictability complicates projections and generates uncertainty. 

This is the final paradox (#4): the unpredictability of oil markets is itself a destabilizing force. Decisions on future production and consumption cannot be long-term, and this constrains investment in future production."

[Barnsey]

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

57 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

 

Trough to peak times on there are 40, 42 and 50 years. So why 25ish this time?

[Barnsey]

THIS. IS. BRILLIANT. Really important video to watch if you can spare the time, hugely appropriate for everyone here.

 

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Trough to peak times on there are 40, 42 and 50 years. So why 25ish this time?

Absolutely no idea , posted to illustrate direction of travel.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

Just now, Barnsey said:

Absolutely no idea , posted to illustrate direction of travel.

It is still interesting as it is clearly at an extreme. I guess 25 years is a more investable timeframe for most.

[Bricks & Mortar]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Trough to peak times on there are 40, 42 and 50 years. So why 25ish this time?

Seems, there's an interim peak, then a flattish (like the 60's) decade, before a final peak.

Also the top line is flattish, but with a slight upward curve.  Would the sudden increase in money supply around these times be bending that curve upward?

[Barnsey]

Very interesting and encouraging development for Heathrow. At first I thought it was because they no longer thought it had a chance of happening given demand shock, but I think it sends a clearer signal of competition infrastructure FOMO, and of greenlighting far more infrastructure projects than we'd imagine possible in this current hole.

Supreme Court lifts ban on Heathrow third runway

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55322340

[Barnsey]

Dave Hunter tweeting this today, just prior to the announcement of a $900 billion stimulus package, suggests to me that despite him saying otherwise, much of his melt up rally relies largely on these indiscriminate hand outs in an environment where sports betting is still largely shut down.

 

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Barnsey said:

Dave Hunter tweeting this today, just prior to the announcement of a $900 billion stimulus package, suggests to me that despite him saying otherwise, much of his melt up rally relies largely on these indiscriminate hand outs in an environment where sports betting is still largely shut down.

 

 

Has it been finalised? The will they won't they has been orchestrating the markets for months.  I guess the proof will be if we get the melt up while they're still filibustering the deal

[Barnsey]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

 

Has it been finalised? The will they won't they has been orchestrating the markets for months.  I guess the proof will be if we get the melt up while they're still filibustering the deal

This is the latest

 

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Barnsey said:

This is the latest

 

Nice one mate, I wasn't being lazy, you'd think something like that would be at the top of the Google results but no.

[Barnsey]

Just now, Loki said:

Nice one mate, I wasn't being lazy, you'd think something like that would be at the top of the Google results but no.

Not confirmed yet of course but he's pretty high up on the trusted source list. Can't help thinking Mr Hunter has some insider connections given his timing 

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Barnsey said:

Not confirmed yet of course but he's pretty high up on the trusted source list. Can't help thinking Mr Hunter has some insider connections given his timing 

Bound to have at least some sort of contact list built up over the years.  Don't we all in our career?

"Mate, just a quick one...do you know anything about-"

As long as he is correct I don't care if he throws stones in a pond and counts the ripples

[Barnsey]

And bitcoin breaks above $20k, brace and grab the popcorn...

[Barnsey]

And one more update, note these "checks" will be going straight into the pockets of the retail investor crowd.

 

[Popuplights]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

And one more update, note these "checks" will be going straight into the pockets of the retail investor crowd.

 

Time to buy Tesla???

[Bricormortis]

Very black Friday har har...

USA Retail sales down most in 7 months

3 minutes ago, Popuplights said:

Time to buy Tesla???

I got some tulip bulbs 

[sancho panza]

On 15/12/2020 at 15:46, Loki said:

 that pic

 

The only point I'm going to even attempt a cheeky trade is when we see the general consensus of DXY ~88, oil ~$55, as after that a bust is expected but not guaranteed to knock everything down.

Other than that for the next 10 years I plan to just sit and collect dividends, but a chance to sell the lot at current prices and get a once in a life time do-over of March is too much for someone in my position to ignore.

Must say @DurhamBorn recently reconfirmed when I asked about dollar bottom around 92 and we had a discussion about kaplan calling a bottom.DB wins again.Fair play.

Dollar looks like it's heading lower especially with stimulus in teh offing.My predictive abilities are poor but some good minds seeing it that way..

Although it's going to be interesting watching that video from @Barnsey when I get time see if there's any ideas when teh infaltion will show in the data.

1 yr chart looks gloomy even without any lines on it.

persoanlly,given we're stacked up with oilies,looking how else to play this,no goldies really dropped that much in the last two months to good value levels.I'm still looking at BVN and MCM at $12-50 and $20 but there's not much else screaming value

 

2 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Dave Hunter tweeting this today, just prior to the announcement of a $900 billion stimulus package, suggests to me that despite him saying otherwise, much of his melt up rally relies largely on these indiscriminate hand outs in an environment where sports betting is still largely shut down.

 

I would suspect large stimulus was always part of that call barnsey.It's what I got wrong for the decade after 2008 tbh.kept thinking they'd stop and they never did.

[Loki]

Cheers @sancho panza It's all a bit tepid right now isn't it

[sancho panza]

https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-stockpiles-fell-31-million-barrels-last-week--eia-2370029

Investing.com --  Oil stockpiles fell more than expected in the latest week, according to a report by the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday.

Crude inventories fell 3.1 million barrels last week, compared with analysts' expectations for a 1.937 million-barrel drawdown.

Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 167,000 barrels in the week against expectations for a build of 886,000 barrels, the EIA data showed.

Refinery crude runs fell 253,000 barrels in the last week, EIA said. The weekly refinery utilization rate was 0.8% according to the report.

Gasoline inventories rose 1 million barrels last week the EIA said, compared with expectations for a 1.6 million-barrel build.

"It must be a welcome relief to oil bulls to see crude stocks actually falling more than anticipated for last week after the previous week’s humongous 15-million barrel build,"

Just now, Loki said:

Cheers @sancho panza It's all a bit tepid right now isn't it

what the goldies?

Sorry off on a night shift in a bit so may not reply tongith

[Loki]

1 minute ago, sancho panza said:

what the goldies?

Yup