Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[feed]

https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2021/02/shell-signs-deal-to-gobble-post-offices-uk-broadband-division.html

 

 

[Don Coglione]

8 minutes ago, feed said:

https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2021/02/shell-signs-deal-to-gobble-post-offices-uk-broadband-division.html

 

 

Look out, that's what Enron did!

[leonardratso]

13 minutes ago, feed said:

https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2021/02/shell-signs-deal-to-gobble-post-offices-uk-broadband-division.html

 

 

well, we just need shell to get into potash now and its nearly the full complement, just buy shell, much easier.

[wherebee]

17 minutes ago, feed said:

https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2021/02/shell-signs-deal-to-gobble-post-offices-uk-broadband-division.html

 

 

maybe the CFO of Shell is watching this thread and making all their investment decisions off the back of DB;s brain?

[DurhamBorn]

17 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Schlum for sure, and Equinor. Equinor have long had the luxury (due to the main shareholder being the Norwegian govt who doesnt hassle then) of doing lots of R&D, some of it crap, some really good. They do experiments on their fields for example, that no one else can do. Sleipner is the first big CCS project in the world I think. Their EOR rates are among the highest in the world. Partly because they don't rush production, unlike the Mexicans for example, but also because theyve pioneered the methods. If you really want to front run it, look up who is funding JIPs joint industry programme in the universities. I'm in some myself, they are active and involving and you get your nose in front of you back the right research. There'll be a "research group" and then "industry sponsors" who pay for it all. I must have a look myself at the EOR and CCS ones, I'm not well up in it at all. I'll keep you posted.

I'm not surprised renewables won't cover whats needed.

Thats really interesting thankyou.Iv been trying to look through the noise to how the energy transition will really play out given where i think growth/inflation is going and there are several areas that could be huge going under the radar of the markets given they arent interested in carbon even though net zero is simply a destination,not one technology.One is natural carbon offsetting,and BP have moved into this.There will be much better ways to play that probably.The other is CCS/EOR.I bought some Schlum tonight with some silver profits.It would be great to understand who might end up big players in this market.Its an area where we might snag some more 5 baggers.

[DurhamBorn]

On the above here is an example.

http://www.alignccus.eu/

Above is a venture between some pretty big hitters in European research etc.The partners page is very telling as @Cattle Prod suggested.

Now clicking through the partners we find Norchem.Norchem is part of HeidelbergCementAG 

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/h/heidelbergcement-npv

Turns out they are looking to use their Co2 alongside Yara as two big CCS projects.

If Europe add big taxes on for external polluters then someone like Heidelberg could clean up if they are capturing their Co2,and of course getting the carbon credits for it.

Now the project is in Norway,so as Cattle Prod said,likely Equinor involved in this as well.

 

Just a bit of cross market work as an example.The road map is saying this is an area that might be going under the radar and likely a big winner.Could a cement company be a big winner? ,yes it could.

So our roadmap and a bit of detective work leads us to this

https://www.heidelbergcement.com/en

and this

https://www.heidelbergcement.com/en/pr-01-02-2021

Reading the above the tech partner is an Australian company called Calix 

https://www.google.co.uk/search?source=hp&ei=LH4YYLjDHI72gAbXjq2ACw&iflsig=AINFCbYAAAAAYBiMPP7dQUA5WyUMNYZI1Px6yyQc_Kx1&q=calix+asx&oq=calix+as&gs_lcp=CgZwc3ktYWIQARgAMgIIADIGCAAQFhAeMgYIABAWEB4yBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeMggIABAWEAoQHjIGCAAQFhAeMgYIABAWEB4yBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeOggIABCxAxCDAToLCC4QsQMQxwEQowI6CAguELEDEIMBOgUIABCxAzoCCC46BQguELEDOggILhCxAxCTAlCdCFiFGmCMJWgBcAB4AIABrwGIAZQGkgEDNi4ymAEAoAEBqgEHZ3dzLXdperABAA&sclient=psy-ab

Tech is kilns for carbon capture,trebled since last March.Maybe we should of put effort in earlier.

Leaving work in two weeks,so im going to spend a lot of time on this area and see if there might be some quality companies to add to the portfolio.

 

 

[Errol]

Atkinsons Bullion has paused trading again - until Tuesday morning! 

https://atkinsonsbullion.com/

Clearly demand is ludicrous and they can't keep up with it or don't have the metal to sell.

 

 

JM Bullion CEO says on CNBC: We often do 1 Million on a weekend, but on Sunday alone we did 27 Million ounces in sales. He says the entire Silver industry is wiped out.

[Democorruptcy]

Latest Hussman downdate. He's very worried I can tell. I mean he's always worried but his worry levels seem to be going parabolic now.

Quote

 

The chart below shows how investors were pricing the “good stocks” in the S&P 500 as of January 22. Each line represents a decile (10%) of the S&P 500, ranked by price/revenue ratios. Among the stocks in the top valuation decile at the 2000 market peak, the median drawdown loss by October 2002 was about 80%. Yet many stocks in the broad market were actually reasonably valued from a historical perspective even at the 2000 market peak. In recent weeks, that top valuation decile has eclipsed its 2000 peak. The difference from 2000 is that every other decile just hit the highest level in history as well.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc210201/

 

 

 

[Loki]

7 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Latest Hussman downdate. He's very worried I can tell. I mean he's always worried but his worry levels seem to be going parabolic now.

 

 

Indeed, check out the COVID fear-pabulum at the end 

Quote

That is exactly how this little coronavirus with twice the R0 of the seasonal flu, and a mortality rate that is evidently an order of magnitude higher, will produce utter chaos if containment efforts are not taken seriously.
– John P. Hussman, Ph.D., March 1, 2020

Sorry John I don't think that aged as well as you think it did!

The "containment measures" are what fucked everything up, and the survival rate is still 99% no matter how much it's ramped, skewed and misrepresented. 

[Noallegiance]

21 minutes ago, Errol said:

Atkinsons Bullion has paused trading again - until Tuesday morning! 

https://atkinsonsbullion.com/

Clearly demand is ludicrous and they can't keep up with it or don't have the metal to sell.

 

 

JM Bullion CEO says on CNBC: We often do 1 Million on a weekend, but on Sunday alone we did 27 Million ounces in sales. He says the entire Silver industry is wiped out.

And yet still the derivative sits under $30.

Clearly fine.

[Democorruptcy]

3 minutes ago, Loki said:

Indeed, check out the COVID fear-pabulum at the end 

Sorry John I don't think that aged as well as you think it did!

The "containment measures" are what fucked everything up, and the survival rate is still 99% no matter how much it's ramped, skewed and misrepresented. 

You were odds-on favourite in my betting, to be the one who also picked up on his covid worries

[Loki]

37 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

You were odds-on favourite in my betting, to be the one who also picked up on his covid worries

Just doing my job!

[Viceroy]

15 hours ago, spygirl said:

Gold and silver are not money. They are commodities.

I have to agree with you.  I'm the holder of gold coins bought just after the tops in the 80s and 2011 - taught me a lesson.

A long article written in 2012 :

(Armstrong was a trader & dealer in gold in the 70s): https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/writings/2012-2/the-truth-about-gold-why-you-should-buy-it/

So gold has been around a long time. It has been an object of desire. Beyond that, there are no special qualities that render it as money nor does it present any exception to the ups and downs in value as anything else in society. Gold is in plain and simple terms, a commodity... It is a valuable commodity that should be part of any portfolio. Its advantage over real estate or equities is its movability – you can take it with you when it is time to flee...look at gold for what it truly is – a hedge against government – NOT INFLATION! Gold is not even the hedge against fiscal mismanagement of the Fed and its monetization. Its role right now is the hedge against the meltdown of the current monetary system.

So even under a Gold Standard capital flees. Why? Because there is not even one type of a Gold Standard!

The question of whether government would return to some form of gold monetary system, the answer is flat outright NEVER! That would imply they have to stop borrowing money. They would have to eliminate the national debt. ..Officially, it is not in government’s interest to return to gold. They want electronic money so they get all the taxes on every dime you pick-up in a parking lot. That is NOT a statement about gold or its worth, value, or use. Gold I think will be the hedge, but in a private sort of the way to transact almost on a barter system. ..

Gold is a viable part of the portfolio. It will rise to the occasion when the timing is right. The very people accused of keeping it down are the very people who will turn around and send it up as well. This is just about time. Nothing more! When the time is right and people realize that the Governments have no Clothes, look out – there will be a stampede at that time. For now, that still appears headed into 2017.

 

[Mapper]

I have arrived here after coming across ToS and then the original thread.

Having ploughed through (most of) it, I obviously have to thank @DurhamBorn, but also all the other contributors. Thank you.

Really, thank you all.

Can I ask a question?

Top-slicing.

Is it
- taking out the value of your original investment?
- reducing your stake down to the value of your original investment?
- something else?

Any enlightenment, much apprectiated.

[JMD]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

On the above here is an example.

http://www.alignccus.eu/

Above is a venture between some pretty big hitters in European research etc.The partners page is very telling as @Cattle Prod suggested.

Now clicking through the partners we find Norchem.Norchem is part of HeidelbergCementAG 

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/h/heidelbergcement-npv

Turns out they are looking to use their Co2 alongside Yara as two big CCS projects.

If Europe add big taxes on for external polluters then someone like Heidelberg could clean up if they are capturing their Co2,and of course getting the carbon credits for it.

Now the project is in Norway,so as Cattle Prod said,likely Equinor involved in this as well.

 

Just a bit of cross market work as an example.The road map is saying this is an area that might be going under the radar and likely a big winner.Could a cement company be a big winner? ,yes it could.

So our roadmap and a bit of detective work leads us to this

https://www.heidelbergcement.com/en

and this

https://www.heidelbergcement.com/en/pr-01-02-2021

Reading the above the tech partner is an Australian company called Calix 

https://www.google.co.uk/search?source=hp&ei=LH4YYLjDHI72gAbXjq2ACw&iflsig=AINFCbYAAAAAYBiMPP7dQUA5WyUMNYZI1Px6yyQc_Kx1&q=calix+asx&oq=calix+as&gs_lcp=CgZwc3ktYWIQARgAMgIIADIGCAAQFhAeMgYIABAWEB4yBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeMggIABAWEAoQHjIGCAAQFhAeMgYIABAWEB4yBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeOggIABCxAxCDAToLCC4QsQMQxwEQowI6CAguELEDEIMBOgUIABCxAzoCCC46BQguELEDOggILhCxAxCTAlCdCFiFGmCMJWgBcAB4AIABrwGIAZQGkgEDNi4ymAEAoAEBqgEHZ3dzLXdperABAA&sclient=psy-ab

Tech is kilns for carbon capture,trebled since last March.Maybe we should of put effort in earlier.

Leaving work in two weeks,so im going to spend a lot of time on this area and see if there might be some quality companies to add to the portfolio.

 

 

DB, something tells me we may need to corner the cement industry...!!!... apparently that industry accounts for 6% of global co2 emmisions, so they have big incentive to remedy this I guess.                                                                    Coincidentally Id been looking to research more into carbon capture for a while and few days back @Option5 responded to a question I posted here, suggesting that I should take a look at the Norwegian Northern Light's project. Can't link easily at moment but Google will find site easily. Tbh I was more interested in the project partner Fortum, which is itself i think an interesting energy/renewables/ccs tech company. ...But on reading your above post, the thing is one of the other partners happens to also be Norcem/Heidelberg Cement!! I agree that identifying the companies that currently and successfully (those partnered with big oil?) exploit ccs+eor would be a great investment opportunity. And look forward to further post discussions about this.

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, JMD said:

DB, something tells me we may need to corner the cement industry...!!!... apparently that industry accounts for 6% of global co2 emmisions, so they have big incentive to remedy this I guess.                                                                    Coincidentally Id been looking to research more into carbon capture for a while and few days back @Option5 responded to a question I posted here, suggesting that I should take a look at the Norwegian Northern Light's project. Can't link easily at moment but Google will find site easily. Tbh I was more interested in the project partner Fortum, which is itself i think an interesting energy/renewables/ccs tech company. ...But on reading your above post, the thing is one of the other partners happens to also be Norcem/Heidelberg Cement!! I agree that identifying the companies that currently and successfully (those partnered with big oil?) exploit ccs+eor would be a great investment opportunity. And look forward to further post discussions about this.

They create a lot of co2,and that co2 can be used to push out extra oil from the wells.I think the lack of carbon capture and large amounts is why it hasnt been used so far.Looking at the amount cement and also Yara produce,no wonder they are involved.They produce a lot,and if they can get carbon credits for it,suddenly they become the price setter in the sector.

[MrXxxx]

10 hours ago, wherebee said:

maybe the CFO of Shell is watching this thread and making all their investment decisions off the back of DB;s brain?

And who is Looney from BP following from this forum then?.....`answer on a postcard to....`

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, Errol said:

Atkinsons Bullion has paused trading again - until Tuesday morning! 

https://atkinsonsbullion.com/

Clearly demand is ludicrous and they can't keep up with it or don't have the metal to sell.

 

 

JM Bullion CEO says on CNBC: We often do 1 Million on a weekend, but on Sunday alone we did 27 Million ounces in sales. He says the entire Silver industry is wiped out.

Mmmm, took 30 years for silver to regain its previous price after the Hunt brothers failed attempt, is this the `writing on the wall`?...Caveat emptor.

[geordie_lurch]

Silver just dropped massively - 4.8% at once. I guess JP Morgan and the old guard want to send a message 

[Transistor Man]

5 hours ago, JMD said:

DB, something tells me we may need to corner the cement industry...!!!... apparently that industry accounts for 6% of global co2 emmisions, so they have big incentive to remedy this I guess.                                                                    

I did some work on this issue for an EC project 12 years ago. Cement pyroprocessing is a pretty fierce process, they have a continuous feed of old car tyres going into the kiln. 

The Europairs project attempted to get nuclear vendors, utilities, and industrial partners together, to look at using nuclear cogeneration opportunities - with waste heat going to the industrial process. 

[jamtomorrow]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

On the above here is an example.

http://www.alignccus.eu/

Above is a venture between some pretty big hitters in European research etc.The partners page is very telling as @Cattle Prod suggested.

Now clicking through the partners we find Norchem.Norchem is part of HeidelbergCementAG 

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/h/heidelbergcement-npv

Turns out they are looking to use their Co2 alongside Yara as two big CCS projects.

If Europe add big taxes on for external polluters then someone like Heidelberg could clean up if they are capturing their Co2,and of course getting the carbon credits for it.

Now the project is in Norway,so as Cattle Prod said,likely Equinor involved in this as well.

 

Just a bit of cross market work as an example.The road map is saying this is an area that might be going under the radar and likely a big winner.Could a cement company be a big winner? ,yes it could.

So our roadmap and a bit of detective work leads us to this

https://www.heidelbergcement.com/en

and this

https://www.heidelbergcement.com/en/pr-01-02-2021

Reading the above the tech partner is an Australian company called Calix 

https://www.google.co.uk/search?source=hp&ei=LH4YYLjDHI72gAbXjq2ACw&iflsig=AINFCbYAAAAAYBiMPP7dQUA5WyUMNYZI1Px6yyQc_Kx1&q=calix+asx&oq=calix+as&gs_lcp=CgZwc3ktYWIQARgAMgIIADIGCAAQFhAeMgYIABAWEB4yBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeMggIABAWEAoQHjIGCAAQFhAeMgYIABAWEB4yBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeOggIABCxAxCDAToLCC4QsQMQxwEQowI6CAguELEDEIMBOgUIABCxAzoCCC46BQguELEDOggILhCxAxCTAlCdCFiFGmCMJWgBcAB4AIABrwGIAZQGkgEDNi4ymAEAoAEBqgEHZ3dzLXdperABAA&sclient=psy-ab

Tech is kilns for carbon capture,trebled since last March.Maybe we should of put effort in earlier.

Leaving work in two weeks,so im going to spend a lot of time on this area and see if there might be some quality companies to add to the portfolio.

 

 

Heidelberg was already on my BK shopping list based on proximity to the fiscal tit (since governments seem to love projects that involve pouring vast quantities of concrete). Haven't bitten yet purely because divi yield looked a bit stingey compared to other opportunities, but a second thesis like this would change things for sure.

Edit to add: other players in the sector ought to be worth a look on the same basis. Anything to stop, say, Lafarge, Saint Gobain or CRH going down same road?

[geordie_lurch]

Oil giant BP announces $5bn annual loss after year of ‘pain and sadness’ - via here

Will it go up at the opening or down.... ?

Quote

Oil giant BP today announced losses of more than $5billion across 2020, a year described by CEO Bernard Looney as one of “pain and sadness” which saw lives lost, livelihoods destroyed and oil prices tumble. 

The has revealed it plunged to a full-year underlying replacement cost loss of 5.7 billion US dollars (£4.2 billion) against profits of 10 billion US dollars (£7.3 billion) in 2019.

Bernard Looney, chief executive officer, said: "2020 will forever be remembered for the pain and sadness caused by COVID-19. Lives were lost - livelihoods destroyed. Our sector was hit hard as well.

"Road and air travel are down, as are oil demand, prices and margins. 

"It was also a pivotal year for the company. We launched a net zero ambition, set a new strategy to become an integrated energy company and created an offshore wind business in the US. 

"We began reinventing bp - with nearly 10 thousand people leaving the company. We strengthened our finances - taking out costs and closing major divestments. And through all of this, the underlying operations of the company remained safe - one of our safest years - and reliable, and major new projects were brought on line.

“I appreciate our team's commitment to deliver the energy the world needed and am grateful for the support we received from investors and the communities where we work. We expect much better days ahead for all of us in 2021.”

Also important bit...

Murray Auchincloss, chief financial officer, said: "These results reflect a truly tough quarter, with a challenging price environment and COVID-19 related demand impacts. Nonetheless, we made strong progress in reducing net debt again, to $39 billion in the quarter. 

“We remain on track to meet our target of $35 billion between the fourth quarter of 2021 and first quarter of 2022, which will trigger the start of share buybacks, subject to maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating.”

[nirvana]

9 hours ago, Errol said:

JM Bullion CEO says on CNBC: We often do 1 Million on a weekend, but on Sunday alone we did 27 Million ounces in sales. He says the entire Silver industry is wiped out.

dude you really do need to stop ramping in the way you do

Gold just got smacked down below 1850 again and Silver below 28

9 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Silver just dropped massively - 4.8% at once. I guess JP Morgan and the old guard want to send a message 

take it up the ass pleb 

[nirvana]

3 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Oil giant BP announces $5bn annual loss

Damn that's quite a loss, I guess the share price decline was insiders who knew what was coming 

[geordie_lurch]

Just now, 5min OCD speculator said:

Damn that's quite a loss, I guess the share price decline was insiders who knew what was coming 

Is it already priced in though? I am just adding some stop losses