Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[nirvana]

1 minute ago, geordie_lurch said:

Is it already priced in though? I am just adding some stop losses

yup I keep saying 'stop loss'...it's a battle with yourself as much as it is against Mr Market 

 

[jamtomorrow]

5 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

dude you really do need to stop ramping in the way you do

Gold just got smacked down below 1850 again and Silver below 28

take it up the ass pleb 

What's to stop CFTC just letting the paper market detach completely from physical? I doubt they'll let little details like "delivery" get in the way.

They got this, after all nothing is more important than letting the shorters short:

[nirvana]

4 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

What's to stop CFTC just letting the paper market detach completely from physical?

I was just saying yesterday in another thread, treat them both differently 

now what to do with oilies? actually US oil just burst above 54...

 

[geordie_lurch]

Hmmm it seems my stop loss for BP at 258p didn't trigger with HL so I had to do it manually. That doesn't exactly give me confidence if / when the BK hits

[Democorruptcy]

4 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Hmmm it seems my stop loss for BP at 258p didn't trigger with HL so I had to do it manually. That doesn't exactly give me confidence if / when the BK hits

If I bought some of yours would you let me off the stamp duty?

[Loki]

18 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

What's to stop CFTC just letting the paper market detach completely from physical? I doubt they'll let little details like "delivery" get in the way.

They got this, after all nothing is more important than letting the shorters short:

Threats of integrity more like

[wherebee]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/02/02/bp-swings-big-loss-oil-demand-falls/

 

still being slammed in the mainstream.  Good stuff.  I'm going to go back in with the money from selling out last week.  At current prices I get an extra 10 BP shares for free.  Not a huge amount, but thinking long term every little helps.

[CVG]

7 hours ago, Mapper said:

I have arrived here after coming across ToS and then the original thread.

Having ploughed through (most of) it, I obviously have to thank @DurhamBorn, but also all the other contributors. Thank you.

Really, thank you all.

Can I ask a question?

Top-slicing.

Is it
- taking out the value of your original investment?
- reducing your stake down to the value of your original investment?
- something else?

Any enlightenment, much apprectiated.

Welcome. I'm not sure if it was answered.

For me, it just means cashing in 10/20/30% of an investment in order to realise some of the gains that have been made, i.e. taking a bit off the top.

[jamtomorrow]

7 hours ago, Mapper said:

I have arrived here after coming across ToS and then the original thread.

Having ploughed through (most of) it, I obviously have to thank @DurhamBorn, but also all the other contributors. Thank you.

Really, thank you all.

Can I ask a question?

Top-slicing.

Is it
- taking out the value of your original investment?
- reducing your stake down to the value of your original investment?
- something else?

Any enlightenment, much apprectiated.

Think of it like horticulture.

If you're the kind of grower that gets down the allotment most days, pulling up small weeds here, thinning seedlings there, then top-slicing is probably a good way to approach investing.

If, like me, you're more about studied negligence then I wouldn't worry about it. You'll likely see a gradual loss of diversity as the winners run ("massive greens" syndrome) and you'll want to rebalance at some point. Probably with a brush cutter and some agent orange to hand.

[geordie_lurch]

36 minutes ago, wherebee said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/02/02/bp-swings-big-loss-oil-demand-falls/

still being slammed in the mainstream.  Good stuff.  I'm going to go back in with the money from selling out last week.  At current prices I get an extra 10 BP shares for free.  Not a huge amount, but thinking long term every little helps.

You might get ever more extra shares at this rate as it was over 4% down just there

[wherebee]

25 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

You might get ever more extra shares at this rate as it was over 4% down just there

jeez you are right.  I'll set an order before I go to bed.  That's the only problem with trading from Oz - I have more access to US stocks than UK stocks so often have to get ADRs not Uk stonks. (although from what others have said, the FTSE seems pretty uninteresting).

[Harley]

2 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

What's to stop CFTC just letting the paper market detach completely from physical? I doubt they'll let little details like "delivery" get in the way.

They got this, after all nothing is more important than letting the shorters short:

FFS - ".....Vigilant in surveilling these markets for fraud and manipulation"!

Looks more like the charge of the Light Brigade onto the silver baron's cannons.

IMO PM miners have been technically weakening for some time.  This current excitement may only be a blip.

Seems anything with "Silver" or "Sprott" in its name has done well - that's the level of DD.

Know your market - they can paper settle, chain of custody, etc.

Maybe physical silver is in a long term cup and handle which will bail out the current crazy premiums, possible VAT, etc.  Maybe not.

[Harley]

16 hours ago, Starsend said:

Below is what the search on Hargreaves Lansdown returns for Gazprom.

Both in USD. First one shows a dividend yield of over 13%, second one over 7%?

Anybody know which one to buy? Is one preferable over the other?

 

GAZ	Gazprom Neft OJSC Level 1 ADR each Representing 5 Ordinary Shares
OGZD	PJSC Gazprom ADS each Representing 2 Ordinary Shares

Depends which one you want.  Per reading their profiles, they are different businesses.  Depends if you want all or part of the business.

A quick look on Investing.com......

Gazprom Neft' PAO  (SIBN:MOEX) is a vertically integrated oil company operating in the Russian Federation, Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and internationally. The Company's principal activities include exploration, production and development of crude oil and gas, production of refined petroleum products and distribution and marketing operations through its retail outlets. The Company manages its operations in two segments: Upstream and Downstream. The Company's Upstream segment (exploration and production) includes exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas (including joint ventures results), and oil field services. The Downstream segment (refining and marketing) processes crude into refined products and purchases, sells and transports crude and refined petroleum products. The Company offers products and services for motorists and a range of businesses. It offers Gazprom Neft Engine Oils and G-Energy premium oils brands for use in the passenger vehicles.

Gazprom PAO (GAZP:MOEX) operates gas pipeline systems. The Company's principal activities include exploration and production of gas; transportation of gas; sales of gas within the Russian Federation and abroad; gas storage; production of crude oil and gas condensate; processing of oil, gas condensate and other hydrocarbons, and sales of refined products, and electric and heat energy generation and sales. The Company's segments include Production of gas, Transportation, Distribution of gas, Gas storage, Production of crude oil and gas condensate, Refining, Electric and heat energy generation and sales, and Other. The Production of gas segment is engaged in the exploration and production of gas. The Transportation segment is engaged in the transportation of gas. The Distribution of gas segment is engaged in the sales of gas within the Russian Federation and abroad. The Gas storage segment is engaged in the storage of extracted and purchased gas in underground gas storages.

To add: Gazprom PAO owns 92.66% of Gazprom Neft.  BP owns a smallish slice of Gazprom PAO via Roseneft.

IMO the likes of HL do not offer sufficient company data. 

[Bricormortis]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gazprom

Gazprom PJSC

[Yadda yadda yadda]

18 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gazprom

Gazprom PJSC

I have OGZD, which appears to be the correct one, traded in London.

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/OGZD:LI

[Harley]

41 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Topped up some BP this morning. Even though I don't fully trust the CEO yet, I couldn't resist a small buy on this pullback. Results are last years news, they are making money today. Also topped up BT, RIO, BHP, RR and SSE. Some nice pullbacks on the LSE I think.

BP:  Small gap down again today.  IMO entered into the oversold zone on daily and been meandering there on the monthly so I'll wait or just be content and look elsewhere.  Nice thing about my approach is I just wait for the techs to give me the nod.  Naff all atm so just trading the weeklies and should be prepping for the various nasties on the horizon (the only reason I would jump my gun atm).

PS: Daily Heikin candles for BP are a work of beauty!  Love the oillies atm for the clear techs they show.

22 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I have OGZD, which appears to be the correct one, traded in London.

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/OGZD:LI

"Correct one"?

[arrow]

54 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Topped up some BP this morning. Even though I don't fully trust the CEO yet, I couldn't resist a small buy on this pullback. Results are last years news, they are making money today. Also topped up BT, RIO, BHP, RR and SSE. Some nice pullbacks on the LSE I think.

Did the same. Also topped up some Chevron/Xom a few days ago. My once "balanced" portfolio is now 80% oil.

[Talking Monkey]

4 minutes ago, arrow said:

Did the same. Also topped up some Chevron/Xom a few days ago. My once "balanced" portfolio is now 80% oil.

Sheesh that's ballsy

[Harley]

52 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Topped up some BP this morning. Even though I don't fully trust the CEO yet, I couldn't resist a small buy on this pullback. Results are last years news, they are making money today. Also topped up BT, RIO, BHP, RR and SSE. Some nice pullbacks on the LSE I think.

I'm fully allocated on BATS but at an 8% loss.  Not worried given the current situation and happy to use funds to trade out the loss.  Rightly never trusted the Dec and Jan price action (fake buy signals) so will see if Feb fares better.  Same with BT.A to a lesser extent but looks better.  RIO and BHP made their moves a long time ago and skirting the overbought zone where they can go higher or get choppy.  Interesting BHP at a double top whereas RIO broke through.  I need better fundamentals for RR although some odd price action in some of its competitors.  Might have to top slice SSE soon!

All a good example why I'm looking further afield.  Big picture though the FTSE has done poorly due partly to its sector composition.  This may be more on the money later so maybe I'll just settle for an ETF and some trades and stay international for equity and also work/prep other asset classes.

 

[Harley]

15 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

shame we cant buy XLE outright,

No way, you not at "professional investor" status yet given all that oil savvy and money, all turbo'd with options!

[JMD]

3 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Heidelberg was already on my BK shopping list based on proximity to the fiscal tit (since governments seem to love projects that involve pouring vast quantities of concrete). Haven't bitten yet purely because divi yield looked a bit stingey compared to other opportunities, but a second thesis like this would change things for sure.

Edit to add: other players in the sector ought to be worth a look on the same basis. Anything to stop, say, Lafarge, Saint Gobain or CRH going down same road?

I agree with your '2nd thesis' comment. Government intervention/carbon regulation will be a powerful driver (esg, green-washing, etc, is not to be dismissed; after all carbon credits and all kinds of 'mangled moral government thinking' will dominate future policy). And snap!! i also had Heidelberg and the others you list... part of my next cycle infrastructure play, and was also waiting/hoping for BK/drop.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Heidelberg was already on my BK shopping list based on proximity to the fiscal tit (since governments seem to love projects that involve pouring vast quantities of concrete). Haven't bitten yet purely because divi yield looked a bit stingey compared to other opportunities, but a second thesis like this would change things for sure.

Edit to add: other players in the sector ought to be worth a look on the same basis. Anything to stop, say, Lafarge, Saint Gobain or CRH going down same road?

I worked the industry a few months ago given the macro but saw little in the way of fundamentals and/or value. Would have done fine trading/exploiting the March dips though. Grabbed a few asians instead, so far with limited success.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

 

"Correct one"?

Good point. Correct one from the point of view of being easy to buy (and sell) and relates to the Gazprom as a whole.

[Bricormortis]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I have OGZD, which appears to be the correct one, traded in London.

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/OGZD:LI

Yes the ticker code for PJSC is OGZD

[Talking Monkey]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Agreed - monthly indicators look terrible to me.

Interesting to see these views on the PM miners and how they diverge with Dave Hunter who's really pushing his silver and PM miners bull run through this quarter. I just can't see it myself and wonder what indicators Hunter is looking at to be so bullish.