Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Bobthebuilder]

1 hour ago, Fully Detached said:

Ah thanks - maybe it was a typo on the post here then - cheers!

https://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/g/guinness-global-energy-fund-class-x-gbp-income

 

[Fully Detached]

20 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

https://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/g/guinness-global-energy-fund-class-x-gbp-income

 

Ah, thanks bob - so it does exist after all  

[DurhamBorn]

A BK is more likely to happen with good news,not bad.Its likely to come from claims on money coming due as the CBs tighten,and by tighten i mean be less loose.

It could be a case of the economy opening up,booming,people putting invoices in,,,,,then nothing.People arent paid.

The biggest risk i see is the fact the west is running a huge structural deficit.That is mainly welfare and over employing in the state sector.

If the economy and tax base doesnt grow much faster than it is and catch up then any increase i rates will cause lots of pain.

Looking at the size of the printing and spending it looks to me like they need to run rates about 2.85% below inflation for the cycle.This number moves slightly over time.Thats to get the public finances into range.

It also means public wages,welfare,pensions etc need to increase slower than inflation and/or private sector wages.

One of the quick gains on this is invest heavily in the north because of the lower costs.

Im really worried that we are going to do really well up here and suck in lots of outsiders and then see prices increase for my grandchildren.Id prefer we stayed a bit poor.Hopefully we have a few really bad winters in a row,that should send people back south.

 

 

[reformed nice guy]

 

[Hancock]

22 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im really worried that we are going to do really well up here and suck in lots of outsiders and then see prices increase for my grandchildren.Id prefer we stayed a bit poor. Hopefully we have a few really bad winters in a row,that should send people back south.

As you've a lot of time is it worth looking into buying a plot of land on the cheap and claim to live on it for many years thus getting planning permission, then handing it to the grandkids.

The weathers shite in southern England also, they just like to tell themselves its tropical in comparison. Besides it's Jocks moving in is what you've to be afraid of, wouldn't want one of those wife beating cunts marrying into your civilised family!

[Loki]

45 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Id prefer we stayed a bit poor.Hopefully we have a few really bad winters in a row,that should send people back south.

I wouldn't worry mate, i think we'll all be "equally" "rich" by the time they're grown up 

24 minutes ago, Hancock said:

The weathers shite in southern England also, they just like to tell themselves its tropical in comparison.

Not really, just a case of being grateful for what decent weather we do get 

[ThoughtCriminal]

26 minutes ago, Hancock said:

The weathers shite in southern England also, they just like to tell themselves its tropical in comparison. Besides it's Jocks moving in is what you've to be afraid of, wouldn't want one of those wife beating cunts marrying into your civilised family!

That's what I said when I mentioned on here I was looking at houses in northern Sweden and the weather was mentioned. I thought "Where the fuck do you think we live? It's a cold, damp island 10 months of the year. 

 

Being cold is like being late: it's binary. 

[Agent ZigZag]

I dont mind the UK weather overall its the bloody wind that we get loads of that I hate.

[leonardratso]

sprouts

[ThoughtCriminal]

15 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

I dont mind the UK weather overall its the bloody wind that we get loads of that I hate.

Yup. I really hate the constant wet, like living in a muddy puddle. 

[Agent ZigZag]

42 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

sprouts

Beans......the more you eat the more you.......

[sleepwello'nights]

7 hours ago, Castlevania said:

One should have been on the parcel. 

There wasn't. 

Just had a closer look at the invoice. In the small print in the footer it says in bold: "This delivery is free of VAT according to Art. 146 of EU directive 2006/112/EG. 

I'll look it up later to see what it says. 

[dnb24]

18 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

 

[DurhamBorn]

6 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

Anyone still buying stuff? Telecoms ? Utilities?

I have been looking at UU and some Telefonica. 
 

5 year view on UU....

or are you all holding on for the BK...? 

 

 

Iv been buying Brazlian telecoms,iv set ladders in them and hope to be able to build some positions as the fall.Hat tip to Kaplan for the nod on Brazil.They seem to be following the NASDAQ 100 ,strange,but there you go.Iv also been adding a few BAE last week,but im mainly looking at Brazil at the moment and setting ladders.

[ThoughtCriminal]

7 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I've spent a fair amount of time in the Arctic, and you really don't feel as cold as you do here mainly becsuse the air is dry, and there is less wind. I'd take a sunny -20C in northern Sweden over a wet and windy plus 5 here any day.

That was my experience in Northern Sweden too. I wasn't as far up as the arctic, but my first thought whilst out walking at night well below freezing was "I've been far colder than this on a blustery rainy autumn night back in the northeast". 

 

 

[Harley]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

It could be a case of the economy opening up,booming,people putting invoices in,,,,,then nothing.People arent paid.

I heard a great phrase from Rick Rule today: Don't confuse liquidity with solvency.

[Harley]

6 hours ago, Agent ZigZag said:

The problem I have is I hate having to keep watching the market and being on guard. I just want to blank out all the noise, and leave my investments alone and come back in 5 years time when I need them to provide me with an income, or is it my greed, I cant keep away?.

I hear you!  I took time out as I needed to crack on with other things which I have and have found them immensely satisfying.  I need to get back into the finance stuff but with a lighter touch.  The trouble with triming, etc is where do you stop: daily, weekly, monthly?  I have other competing priorities so no time for short term trading.  The balance for me is the monthlies and ensuring the correct portfolio allocations.  I also cannot be a hostage to the fears of a potential BK.  I just need to be prudent and balanced.

[Harley]

53 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

Anyone still buying stuff? Telecoms ? Utilities?

I have been looking at UU and some Telefonica. 
 

5 year view on UU....

or are you all holding on for the BK...? 

 

 

I'm trying and will update.  Suggestions please!  Bought some CEY today and will be looking for some more precious metal miners.  I own the likes of UU but may increase my allocations at the right time.  Im going to copy DB if he tells us, plus get a larger allocation to AsiaPac.  Ive been buying by still hold a small allocation.  China has pulled back so worth a look.  Sold Crest Nicholson today at break even.  Not a sector I want any more and I want divs.  A BK may be a concern but I'm far more concerned about having too much cash (inflation or bail ins).

PS:  Topped up BAE too.

PPS:  There are some stocks (energy or miners, not sure) who are monthly overbought so I'd normally avoid but their past price action suggests they could go higher.  I may add.  

[reformed nice guy]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-56512430

Intel's new chief executive has told the BBC it is not "palatable" that so many computer chips are made in Asia

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, Harley said:

I'm trying and will update.  Suggestions please!  Bought some CEY today and will be looking for some more precious metal miners.  I own the likes of UU but may increase my allocations at the right time.  Im going to copy DB if he tells us, plus get a larger allocation to AsiaPac.  Ive been buying by still hold a small allocation.  China has pulled back so worth a look.  Sold Crest Nicholson today at break even.  Not a sector I want any more and I want divs.  A BK may be a concern but I'm far more concerned about having too much cash (inflation or bail ins).

Iv started buying VIV and TIMB both ADRs,first buys and 3 ladders set at 8% down points.

Iv also set ladders for CIG and ELP again 3 at 8% down.Thats the 4 for Brazil for now,but im still working through some.

Iv set a ladder,but not bought yet in REE (Red Electrica) want them cheaper or not at all.

On the far east iv started buying Henderson Far East Income HFEL .Iv not set ladders in those its ad hoc.

[DurhamBorn]

40 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

I have been looking at these too. Not dipped the toe yet. New Financial year coming up. Might go then....

 

@DurhamBorn think you timed it well.

VIV flew after you bought I recollect? Caught the bottom? 

 

 

They are down today,i think iv dead breakeven on them,but i hope they all sell off so ladders kick in.Telefonica Brazil is a different company to Telefonica,it trades as Vivo and is the largest telco in Brasil, Telefonica are the majority share holder though.TIM SA the other big telco im buying is similar in that the majority shareholder is the Italian telco Gruppo TIM.

 

[Castlevania]

47 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

I have been researching Kaplan and Brazil since you mentioned it. 

I am still struggling to get my head around the ‘different Telefonicas’

 

Telefonica grew through debt fuelled acquisition. To reduce their debt levels they’ve sold some of their stakes in different countries by listing them.

[Castlevania]

33 minutes ago, Harley said:

I'm trying and will update.  Suggestions please!  Bought some CEY today and will be looking for some more precious metal miners.  I

With regards to Centamin understand what you’re getting. They have one world class mine and some exploration property. They have a load of cash on their balance sheet and no net debt. They pay a dividend. It’s good stuff if analysing a normal company.

However, this is a gold miner and if you think gold is going to the moon you want the over leveraged operators with good assets. Centamin have a 50:50 profit share with the Egyptian government so a $100 on the gold price is only worth $50 to the bottom line. In addition they’ve had a lot of production issues over the past few years and struggle to maintain hitting half a million oz of production.

However, they do look good value and given the profit share and strong balance sheet should perform better than most of their peers in a down market, just understand that the upside relative to others won’t be as big.

If you’re willing to take more risk without going into the juniors have a look at Harmony, Yamana and Eldorado.

[sleepwello'nights]

I've noticed a few radio adverts for "sell your gold" recently. Are these making a comeback and is it a good portent for the price of gold ?

[JREWING]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

With regards to Centamin understand what you’re getting. They have one world class mine and some exploration property. They have a load of cash on their balance sheet and no net debt. They pay a dividend. It’s good stuff if analysing a normal company.

However, this is a gold miner and if you think gold is going to the moon you want the over leveraged operators with good assets. Centamin have a 50:50 profit share with the Egyptian government so a $100 on the gold price is only worth $50 to the bottom line. In addition they’ve had a lot of production issues over the past few years and struggle to maintain hitting half a million oz of production.

However, they do look good value and given the profit share and strong balance sheet should perform better than most of their peers in a down market, just understand that the upside relative to others won’t be as big.

If you’re willing to take more risk without going into the juniors have a look at Harmony, Yamana and Eldorado.

Fantastic post buddy.

Spot on. I'm holding an awful lot albeit at a 1.025 average.

Poly and Fres fell today. If they fall tomorrow. I'll add.

Poly at under 1440 and Fres under 9 will have my attention.

Bought some Hoc. Average bang on 2.

I'll average down if HOC falls. 1.91 for me is a no brainer. 

I think Gold and Silver is going up town. Heavily manipulated by the banks with their Fiat Gold backed paper nothing.

Funny though today CEY up,  Poly, Fres, Hoc down.

The MM's or Algo's never seem to get CEY under the pound support. Whenever it gets round 102~.7'ish. I pile in, hold my core holding and slice profits on the way up, once a weekly wage is achieved post tax. Beats working for a living.