Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Harley]

41 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

I mentioned some time ago on this thread, when I decided to change my monthly allocation into them after they had their biggish fall. It was due to a landslide in one of there mines causing disruption in output. 

CEY is a relatively rare PM stock that has actually been in the momentum oversold zone on the monthly.  Most stocks have pulled back towards it and are starting to turn.  But is this a blip to the upside or a real (and somewhat rarer) change in trend?

[JMD]

6 hours ago, Harley said:

Looks like @201p is already on the case and deserves more traction/support:

I like the link in his opening post that the Great Reset might already have happened!  Makes you do a 180 and exercise some mental agility!

The thread deserves more attention and a far larger discussion than just about Bitcoin.  It all works for me and my "burning building" metaphor. 

Maybe our BK is a distraction in the bigger picture or is a key part (milestone) of the bigger picture.  Again, context is everything as prepping for the BK might look a bit different.

We are in danger of thinking walking with a red flag in front of this threatening new horseless carriage will be sufficient.

Harley, i respect @201p a lot and will certainly read the thread post that you reference.

I think you raise a valuable discussion point regarding accumulating 'stores of value' to prepare/hedge for coming economic reflation/and or escape (or at least attempt to remain outside?) future government controls... please correct my summation if wrong.

I think such discussions about 'store of value' should be had on this thread. After all, @DurhamBorn says his own central investment aim is to maintain his wealth, and to outrun inflation. 

A timely reminder perhaps that the 'store of value' concept is central to this thread. A core investment thesis of the thread is orientating toward equities such as energy and telecoms, and rare assets such as gold/silver, to maintain value/out run inflation. These ideas are discussed frequently and i have learned a great deal from the expert knowledgeable posters here. 

Other future-value type assets are also discussed from time to time. Land/forests, property, collectables (from classic cars to unopened boxes of Leggo), crypto. I think these discussions add a lot to the thread, in terms of alternative ideas for 'stores of value', and would like to see these type of discussions happen more. I'm sure, that for some, buying cigarette companies is controversial, but personally have never heard complaints on here about buying those stocks. My point being that no ideas should be embargoed... Not saying this happens, just that all ideas are valid in these difficult times.

In terms of suggestions, i only have generic thoughts - however, thinking a 'sweet spot' for me is to aim to remain below personal tax thresholds, for example stay below capitol gains taxes, etc (this is borrowed from DB who favors not paying into tax system as far as is legally possible). So maybe do some options trading where profits are taxed as capitol gain, not income. Involves additional risk and requires skill, but worth considering if no tax to pay. Also, i think decent yielding property investments will maintain their values (despite wider market suffering), so i am thinking more about the property sector (i have previously considered storage/even caravan storage, however this requires large investment in cash and time). Letting property in general now comes with more regulations/higher taxes, so for me would only be worth doing if profits were high enough to engage a letting agent to achieve 'passive income'. Ok, you can perhaps tell my aim is to only work part-time, but i think that's fair enough because personally believe approx. half employment will be p/t by end of decade. Another potential 'store of value' is the crypto sector, and @Lightscribeand others here already comment on the subject in intelligent and engaging way (btw, never too late to buy some!).

As the thread has been running for a few years now, have others here developed their own ideas for accumulating 'stores of value' which they might like to share? Could be just other alternatives to our favored energy/telecoms/PM's? Or could be a novel idea for p/t income (i think developing a secondary income is a form of 'store of value')? Or maybe something more radical? Btw, also welcome opposing or critical views, after all, i am/we are all hear to learn, in order that we might hopefully emerge unscathed (survive?) the looming great reset/'fourth turning'!!

 

NB. Some may have noticed I didn't reference pizza ovens, supermarket reduced items, running old diesel bangers until well after expiry (i jest of course; there is of course no such time limit!). These and other consummate contrarian-consumer concepts are regularly aired here, and to be clear - all are valuable additions to the debate... however, i didn't want to get too controversial!!

[Lightscribe]

43 minutes ago, Harley said:

CEY is a relatively rare PM stock that has actually been in the momentum oversold zone on the monthly.  Most stocks have pulled back towards it and are starting to turn.  But is this a blip to the upside or a real (and somewhat rarer) change in trend?

Yup, is it me or has the search function only showing limited results? I can’t find it now, but I was averaging into HOC and CEY in 2019-20 which I rotated between one another as they were both mid-sized miners and seemed to rise in turn as investors (on LSE anyway) flipped between them. I got lucky as CEY dipped because of crumbling mine walls reducing output I seem to remember.

Then the pullback in PMs and miners came so CEY got hit twice, so that’s when I started averaging back in, which I remember mentioning on here. If I was only organised like some others on here and kept spreadsheets. I’m definitely a finger in the air kind of person. 

[Harley]

28 minutes ago, JMD said:

Harley, i respect @201p a lot and will certainly read the thread post that you reference.

I think you raise a valuable discussion point regarding accumulating 'stores of value' to prepare/hedge for coming economic reflation/and or escape (or at least attempt to remain outside?) future government controls... please correct my summation if wrong.

I think such discussions about 'store of value' should be had on this thread. After all, @DurhamBorn says his own central investment aim is to maintain his wealth, and to outrun inflation. 

A timely reminder perhaps that the 'store of value' concept is central to this thread. A core investment thesis of the thread is orientating toward equities such as energy and telecoms, and rare assets such as gold/silver, to maintain value/out run inflation. These ideas are discussed frequently and i have learned a great deal from the expert knowledgeable posters here. 

Other future-value type assets are also discussed from time to time. Land/forests, property, collectables (from classic cars to unopened boxes of Leggo), crypto. I think these discussions add a lot to the thread, in terms of alternative ideas for 'stores of value', and would like to see these type of discussions happen more. I'm sure, that for some, buying cigarette companies is controversial, but personally have never heard complaints on here about buying those stocks. My point being that no ideas should be embargoed... Not saying this happens, just that all ideas are valid in these difficult times.

In terms of suggestions, i only have generic thoughts - however, thinking a 'sweet spot' for me is to aim to remain below personal tax thresholds, for example stay below capitol gains taxes, etc (this is borrowed from DB who favors not paying into tax system as far as is legally possible). So maybe do some options trading where profits are taxed as capitol gain, not income. Involves additional risk and requires skill, but worth considering if no tax to pay. Also, i think decent yielding property investments will maintain their values (despite wider market suffering), so i am thinking more about the property sector (i have previously considered storage/even caravan storage, however this requires large investment in cash and time). Letting property in general now comes with more regulations/higher taxes, so for me would only be worth doing if profits were high enough to engage a letting agent to achieve 'passive income'. Ok, you can perhaps tell my aim is to only work part-time, but i think that's fair enough because personally believe approx. half employment will be p/t by end of decade. Another potential 'store of value' is the crypto sector, and @Lightscribeand others here already comment on the subject in intelligent and engaging way (btw, never too late to buy some!).

As the thread has been running for a few years now, have others here developed their own ideas for accumulating 'stores of value' which they might like to share? Could be just other alternatives to our favored energy/telecoms/PM's? Or could be a novel idea for p/t income (i think developing a secondary income is a form of 'store of value')? Or maybe something more radical? Btw, also welcome opposing or critical views, after all, i am/we are all hear to learn, in order that we might hopefully emerge unscathed (survive?) the looming great reset/'fourth turning'!!

 

NB. Some may have noticed I didn't reference pizza ovens, supermarket reduced items, running old diesel bangers until well after expiry (i jest of course; there is of course no such time limit!). These and other consummate contrarian-consumer concepts are regularly aired here, and to be clear - all are valuable additions to the debate... however, i didn't want to get too controversial!!

Sounds good.  What worries me about this thread is we talk about making money but only keeping it in terms of the current failing system (e.g. inflation).  We are trying to play (with good intent) the very thing that contains the seeds of our destruction.  But we must do this, we must push on as best we can.  But then this thread cannot take on all the problems of the world.  Life is a never-ending series of hurdles.  How many do we wish to cover here?  To me, I can't help thinking the current "all quiet on the financial front" is because the Treasury and co are busily tunneling under us with an almost imminent mother of all shock and awe where a crater will replace our life savings once the dust has settled!  We need to start preparing for that now as well as deal with the immediate task in hand.  It's a tough gig.

[planit]

18 minutes ago, Harley said:

Sounds good.  What worries me about this thread is we talk about making money but only keeping it in terms of the current failing system (e.g. inflation).  We are trying to play (with good intent) the very thing that contains the seeds of our destruction.  But we must do this, we must push on as best we can.  But then this thread cannot take on all the problems of the world.  Life is a never-ending series of hurdles.  How many do we wish to cover here?  To me, I can't help thinking the current "all quiet on the financial front" is because the Treasury and co are busily tunneling under us with an almost imminent mother of all shock and awe where a crater will replace our life savings once the dust has settled!  We need to start preparing for that now as well as deal with the immediate task in hand.  It's a tough gig.

Luckily for us there are so many problems the markets also can't take them all on at once.

You have answered your own question, look that them as a series of hurdles.

Each individual problem [hurdle] will come at the markets one at a time and affect the market in a predictable way.

All we need to do is predict the next 5 hurdles in exact order, we can then jump the hurdles [reposition our portfolios] in plenty of time to profit from each problem.

 

The above method when followed properly will result in 1,000% returns per year. 

[Bobthebuilder]

23 minutes ago, Harley said:

To me, I can't help thinking the current "all quiet on the financial front" is because the Treasury and co are busily tunneling under us with an almost imminent mother of all shock and awe where a crater will replace our life savings once the dust has settled!  We need to start preparing for that now as well as deal with the immediate task in hand.  It's a tough gig.

Hawthorn Ridge July 1st 1916. Didn't work the first time so, they did it twice.

Good way of describing it I think, I am at a complete loss to guess how this shit show will unravel. They are such a devious bunch of crooks with smoke and mirrors, I don't think we stand much of a chance in the morning sergeant.

 

[nirvana]

YOOOOOOO!!!! Dip buyers are in!!!! 

 

edit: oops think I'm in the wrong thread 

[Lightscribe]

48 minutes ago, Harley said:

Sounds good.  What worries me about this thread is we talk about making money but only keeping it in terms of the current failing system (e.g. inflation).  We are trying to play (with good intent) the very thing that contains the seeds of our destruction.  But we must do this, we must push on as best we can.  But then this thread cannot take on all the problems of the world.  Life is a never-ending series of hurdles.  How many do we wish to cover here?  To me, I can't help thinking the current "all quiet on the financial front" is because the Treasury and co are busily tunneling under us with an almost imminent mother of all shock and awe where a crater will replace our life savings once the dust has settled!  We need to start preparing for that now as well as deal with the immediate task in hand.  It's a tough gig.

Yup, because of the vastness of what this topic covers, everyone tends to cumulate around here (like standing in the kitchen at house parties and bbqs ) It’s a victim of its own success.

Obviously the major upside of this is that a range of people from all backgrounds and specialisms brings a bit of knowledge to the table. This helps everyone decide on their own individual financial strategy (DYOR) to suit each personal circumstance and prepare for whatever life throws at us.

The downside is that information can get lost amongst all the buzz and that we’d have to rename the thread Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come * plus dustbin raiding, yellow sticker reduced shopping, pizza making, spare part hoarding, below spot physical silver buying, rare lego set selling, crypto investing and general preparing for the apocalypse mega thread. 

 

[JimmyTheBruce]

7 hours ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

Got the below through yesterday regarding the Shell AGM.  I do hope it's all just marketing bullshit, but I'll be voting against it anyway.

BOARD REQUESTS SUPPORT FOR ENERGY SECTOR’S FIRST SHAREHOLDER ADVISORY VOTE ON AN ENERGY TRANSITION STRATEGY
Today also marks the publication of Shell’s Energy Transition Strategy, which has been published for submission to a shareholder advisory vote at the 2021 AGM. The document is published simultaneously with the Notice of Meeting and shall be deemed to be incorporated in, and form part of, the Notice of Meeting.

The publication of Shell’s Energy Transition Strategy follows detailed conversations with shareholders and describes Shell’s energy transition strategy as we work towards becoming a net-zero emissions energy business by 2050, in step with society’s progress towards the goal of the UN Paris Agreement on climate change, including our emissions targets. The report aims to help investors and wider society gain a better understanding of how we are addressing the risks and opportunities of the energy transition.

We are the first energy company to submit our energy transition strategy to shareholders for an advisory vote and will be publishing an update every three years until 2050. Every year, starting in 2022, we will also seek an advisory vote on our progress towards our plans and targets. The vote is purely advisory and will not be binding on shareholders.

The Shell Energy Transition Strategy is available at www.shell.com/agm.

 

Poor form to quote myself I know, but just went to cast my utterly futile vote (aren't they all) and it seems there indeed are political games going on at Shell.

It appears that Shell’s "transition plan" may well, at least in part, be a response to a shareholder resolution filed by a group called Follow This, demanding that they take swifter action on carbon intensity. So there were 2 votes, one to approve the transition plan, backed by the board, and the other to approve the Follow This resolution, which the board advised against.

I voted against both 🤪

[Yadda yadda yadda]

18 hours ago, Ashby said:

Email I received today from an online shoe seller; more evidence of inflation (I suppose rather than just greed).  This time expensive Northampton shoes.

Church Brand Repositioning

 

We have just been informed that Church Shoes Ltd have decided to increase their prices to reposition their brand at a higher price point. As a simple example, in the UK the price of Consul, a black calf, toe-cap Oxford will increase from the current price of £495 to £720.

To say we were shocked to see this announcement on Monday would be an understatement. We have worked closely with the brand for decades and had no prior warning that this was happening so we are genuinely struggling to understand the thinking behind this strategy and the implications this will have for us as a retailer of the brand going forward.

Demand for posh business shoes must be through the floor. Only the "elite" are going anywhere that requires very smart shoes. You don't wear Church's to the beer garden.

Slipper manufacturers might be doing well. Also builders boots and gardening shoes. Walking boots and wellies. I haven't bought a new pair of shoes of any type for a couple of years. I did splash out on some laces though.

[Harley]

If I remember correctly "The Road to Serfdom" is (was) free on Kindle.  Spoiler alert - it's not a thriller!

[Harley]

1 hour ago, planit said:

All we need to do is predict the next 5 hurdles in exact order, we can then jump the hurdles [reposition our portfolios] in plenty of time to profit from each problem.

And we need character. That same character that gives a wry smile when reaching the top of the hill only to find another one awaits.  It's never about the money, never will be!  

[Yadda yadda yadda]

4 hours ago, Bricormortis said:

 Things heating up around Ukraine / Crimea with the partial closure of the Black sea's Kerch Strait.

 I like to think Biden is withdrawing from Afghanistan because he can't see a benefit to being there, but I have some concern he has been advised the troops may need to redeploy in Ukraine / East Europe.

From Plymouth Herald.......https://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/royal-navy-reports-russia-closing-5304504

"Russia has reportedly announced it will close a crucial strait in the Black Sea to foreign warships, including the Royal Navy, for the next six months.

It comes amid growing tensions in the region - with the UK and other G7 nations demanding that Russia 'ends provocations and de-escalates tensions' in Ukraine.

Royal Air Force (RAF) Typhoon jets, armed with Paveway bombs and Brimstone missiles, have already been sent to Romania amid fears President Putin is preparing to invade its neighbour.

Earlier this week, UK defence chiefs confirmed the multirole fighter jets will police the skies around the Black Sea.

And, yesterday, Russia warned America - as two US destroyers headed towards the area - to stay away from the region: “For their own good,” reported The Mirror.

Meanwhile, Reuters reported that the United States had cancelled the deployment of the two warships, according to Turkish diplomatic sources.

Now sources in Ukraine report that the Russian Federation has announced it will close the Kerch Strait, from next week until October 2021, "for warships and state ships of other countries under the pretext of military exercises".....

Says the Ukranians " "This step is a gross violation of the right to freedom of navigation, guaranteed by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea."

We really have no business sailing through the Kerch strait into the Sea of Azov. Apart from anything else we would be sitting ducks. Imagine southern Ireland swept east to meet south west Wales with a land bridge. Then Russia decided to sail into the Irish Sea between Northern Ireland and Scotland.

[Bricormortis]

5 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

We really have no business sailing through the Kerch strait into the Sea of Azov. Apart from anything else we would be sitting ducks. Imagine southern Ireland swept east to meet south west Wales with a land bridge. Then Russia decided to sail into the Irish Sea between Northern Ireland and Scotland.

Oh I agree... Just pointing out that things are ratcheting up and most people dont realise..Prior to reading this I didn't know we had sent the RAF to stand by in Romania for instance.

[Loki]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Yup, because of the vastness of what this topic covers, everyone tends to cumulate around here (like standing in the kitchen at house parties and bbqs ) It’s a victim of its own success.

Obviously the major upside of this is that a range of people from all backgrounds and specialisms brings a bit of knowledge to the table. This helps everyone decide on their own individual financial strategy (DYOR) to suit each personal circumstance and prepare for whatever life throws at us.

The downside is that information can get lost amongst all the buzz and that we’d have to rename the thread Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come * plus dustbin raiding, yellow sticker reduced shopping, pizza making, spare part hoarding, below spot physical silver buying, rare lego set selling, crypto investing and general preparing for the apocalypse mega thread. 

 

The thread seems to be refreshingly self regulating, so i don't mind the occasion little tangents it goes on. It's generally either amusing or informative

[jamtomorrow]

7 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Worth a full watch as ever.But from 15 minutes,he begins the 'Road to Serfdom' and it's utterly compelling.

Basement dwellers are familair with the theme of how FUBAR the West is,but this really spells it out for simpeltons like me.

 

And right on cue ...

 

[Loki]

INFRASTRATA AWARDED CONTRACT ON SCOTLAND WIND FARM PROJECT
(Sharecast News) - Infrastructure and physical asset management company InfraStrata has been awarded a contract by Saipem for the fabrication and load-out of eight wind turbine generator jacket foundations for the EDF Renewables and ESB Energy-owned Neart na Gaoithe offshore wind farm project in Scotland's outer Firth of Forth, it announced on Friday.
The AIM-traded firm said the contract value was around £26m, was binding, and contained contractual conditions and obligations on both parties.

It said the contract schedule would start on 1 July.

The works for fabrication, consolidation and load-out of the eight wind turbine generator jacket foundations would primarily be conducted at Harland and Wolff's newly-acquired Methil facilities in Scotland.

If there was an opportunity to further optimise the works programme and make the contract more cost-effective, the company said itself and Saipem would work jointly to spread additional work streams within the contract across the firm's three other sites at Belfast, Arnish and Appledore.

"I believe that this contract paves the way for the execution and delivery of future fabrication contracts, a significant number of which are currently in advanced negotiations," said chief executive officer John Wood.

"The geographical proximity of our Methil facility to the North Sea makes it an ideal site for fabrication and load-out to wind farm projects such as this.

"More importantly, it validates our strategic vision of expanding the group's fabrication footprint into regions that are strategically located within close proximity to major wind farm projects."

Wood said that would enable the company to spread work streams across its facilities to drive down costs, deliver against tight schedules, and align ourselves to the government's goal of providing wind-generated power to all UK homes by 2030.

"I am confident that this is only the beginning of a stream of projects in our pipeline that we expect to come to fruition.

"We are hugely excited about the massive potential that this first contract has unlocked, and we look forward to working with Saipem to successfully deliver under it."

[Viceroy]

He’s followed by lots of peeps we know like Kaplan, Alden etc. Reassuring

[DoINeedOne]

On 01/04/2021 at 14:31, DoINeedOne said:

Done should work code will check INFL holdings page at 12:00 everyday and let me know of any changes

Just a update, every other day its detecting changes but only small percentage changes nothing to major i will only post when there's big changes percentage wise or companies added or removed

Current changes are around 0.5% average changes in some  of the names 

For example there cash was 0.52% its moved to 1.04%

[Starsend]

Little note to everybody regarding Hargreaves Cuntsdown.

Just having a mooch about on their platform checking that my dividends were being automatically reinvested. They were, at a default minimum of £10 with a commission of 1% or £1 (minimum). Now I have a fair few small dividends come in from small holdings in gold/silver miners in particular. I've had dividends coming in for £10, HL then buy a couple more shares and charge me the minimum of £1 - 10% of the transaction. Imagine what that does to your portfolio value over a long period of time - and to their profits.

I changed the minimums to £100 for my ISA and my SIPP. That way you'll pay 1% commission rather than 10%.

[DoINeedOne]

7 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Little note to everybody regarding Hargreaves Cuntsdown.

Just having a mooch about on their platform checking that my dividends were being automatically reinvested. They were, at a default minimum of £10 with a commission of 1% or £1 (minimum). Now I have a fair few small dividends come in from small holdings in gold/silver miners in particular. I've had dividends coming in for £10, HL then buy a couple more shares and charge me the minimum of £1 - 10% of the transaction. Imagine what that does to your portfolio value over a long period of time - and to their profits.

I changed the minimums to £100 for my ISA and my SIPP. That way you'll pay 1% commission rather than 10%.

Personally i just let them build up in my account then reinvest or buy something else when they are a decent amount

[wherebee]

45 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Personally i just let them build up in my account then reinvest or buy something else when they are a decent amount

me too, but only because I don't have any investments where taking shares has a tax benefit.  I think dutch shell is one example where if you reinvest divvies as a US investor, you avoid tax.

[M S E Refugee]

 

[invalid]

It seems my last few posts have all been anecdotes, so lets continue with yet another inflation based one.

Had a take away for dinner from a place that we have been going to for the last ten years. It's a once every few months treat, not the cheapest but the food tastes good.

We get the same order every time so the price is well known. Last time a few months back it was £37 this time £45.

New owners. As we have seen many times locally, new owners = cost cutting and shit food.

This was cost cutting and putting prices up. We had an old menu and compared the new menu, most dishes, even the cheaper things like rice were all +£1. And it was all crap. most likely all bought in from the wholesaler.

I don't mind paying for good food but it seems lately you just can't get it.

So this has given me even more incentive to cook at home more. The egg fried rice (thanks @DurhamBorn) has become a regular and next up I need to look into a decent satay sauce for chicken - any tips appreciated!

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, invalid said:

It seems my last few posts have all been anecdotes, so lets continue with yet another inflation based one.

Had a take away for dinner from a place that we have been going to for the last ten years. It's a once every few months treat, not the cheapest but the food tastes good.

We get the same order every time so the price is well known. Last time a few months back it was £37 this time £45.

New owners. As we have seen many times locally, new owners = cost cutting and shit food.

This was cost cutting and putting prices up. We had an old menu and compared the new menu, most dishes, even the cheaper things like rice were all +£1. And it was all crap. most likely all bought in from the wholesaler.

I don't mind paying for good food but it seems lately you just can't get it.

So this has given me even more incentive to cook at home more. The egg fried rice (thanks @DurhamBorn) has become a regular and next up I need to look into a decent satay sauce for chicken - any tips appreciated!

This is the one all the chinese takeaways use ,you only need a small amount then some water 

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Jimmys-Saté-Sauce-360-g/dp/B00AYY6VMS

If you find a good Chinese supermarket you can get it in there cheaper.What i do now is go now and again and stock up on all the sauces,pearl river soy sauces etc.There is a big one in Stockton about 16 miles away so i spend about £50 and stock up.Lidl have really good egg noodles in though,they ar 49p a pack,its the chinese style egg noodles you want.Each pack has 3 portions,and Home Bargains has Himalaya premium long grain rice for £1.29 a bag,worth the bit extra because its fantastic quality.My egg fried rice dishes are fantastic now,and work out about £2 for both of us instead of £14 from the takeaway.

In other news,

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/04/17/blue-wall-mayor-bids-create-super-port/